Thailand

The situation in Thailand appears to be reaching its brutal conclusion. The current death toll is now 33, not including those who died on April 10, as far as we know, all were unarmed civilians: http://uk.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog/how-many-people-have-been-killed-and-injured - from earlier, 8 more deaths since then.

This amounts to no less than state sanctioned murder. Abhisit Vejjajiva has now officially surpassed General Suchinda (in terms of protesters killed, including April 10th): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_May_(1992).

Some links: - http://bit.ly/9Sw0yb - http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/16/nick-nostitz-in-the-killing-zone/ -- many reports indicate that inexperienced, raw recruits who are in no way trained for crowd dispersal or indeed urban warfare, have been firing indiscriminately at anything that moves.

Abhisit seems to have the full support of the elites and many from the middle classes are cheering on his crackdown, happily calling for yet more "rural buffalo" or "uneducate people" to be slaughtered (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=117557918280498&v=wall&ref=mf -- roughly translates as "let's enjoy the deaths of the red terrorists").

Deaths include a ten year old kid, two medics, innocent bystanders who aren't even part of the protest & several foreign reporters have also been injured. The Thai government maintains that thus far it has only fired at "terrorists". Apparently, red shirts are heavily armed and dangerous, yet no soldiers have been reported dead as of now. As CNN & BBC haven't reported seeing any red shirts with weapons, an impromptu smear campaign has begun against them: "international media free speech is one thing. mind you own business is another". http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=397495867234&id=615520846&ref=mf http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=122351831122683&v=wall - http://uk.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog/rationale-response-to-news-you-don-t-agree-with

The government has engaged in a very effective media war, with thousands of webpages blocked - these are not all dissenting, controversial web pages, far from it, today CNN was blocked. Videos shot by media associations and bystanders alike are routinely accused of being faked, whilst photos of dead protesters are always "a photo shop job". All of the TV channels in Thailand are slanted towards the government (some much more than others), that, along with the censorship, makes it very difficult for 'neutrals' to get an accurate idea of what's actually happening...

Edit: Should make it clear, so this doesn't seem completely one sided: Red shirts are armed, with home made rockets, catapults, molotov cocktails and rocks. Some have witnessed hand guns being used. No one has seen any "black shirts" with heavy ordinance yet, that I know of. I gather people are mostly afraid of the their tendency to set tires alight, as neighboring buildings have already accidentally caught on fire. There's also a video circulating of red shirts beating a soldier, and one soldier being shot in close proximity to the red shirts (but not clear who shot him - he didn't die). One soldier is now confirmed dead, but thought to be a result of friendly fire. Both sides likely to lose all control of their "war machines" today.

Map of the conflict: http://maps.google.co.th/maps/ms?hl...3.74247,100.545073&spn=0.057444,0.077162&z=14 (via https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow)

Feel free to follow my twitter account back a bit for some indication of what's been going on: http://twitter.com/on_off_course

Just realized some people might not be able to see the facebook stuff, here's the typical middle class Thai reaction against international media:

The Case Against the International Media’s Report on Thailand "please read and share it with all your friends"
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Today at 2:28pm
By Reungvit NandhabiwatToday at 12:36am

This is going to be a long note, but I want my overseas friends to understand what has been happening here in Thailand. You would only see the soldiers' shooting scenes or injured people being carried away on international TV channels for 30 seconds, but never got to know about the background. The truth is, the Thai government has been too accommodating by withholding the use of force since the rally started 2 months ago (with the exception of 10th April event, when the soldiers were ordered to move in without live weapons and subsequently got slaughtered by unknown gunmen shooting from the 'Red Shirt' protesters).



The majority of us support the government in dealing with the terrorists hidden amongst the protesters. It held talks with the rally leaders and offered peace solutions to them 10 days ago. The Prime Minister publicly urged the protesters to disperse for fear of violence created by the terrorists. But the plan wasn't accepted. So, it's time to block food and water supplies entering the center of the protest. If the protesters were peaceful, they wouldn't rush out to throw rocks, firecrackers and even bombs at the soldiers' barricade -- thus, causing the soldiers to defend themselves by firing rubber bullets and live rounds.



It's very frustrating for the law-abiding citizen of Bangkok -- we even voiced our dissatisfaction at the government for its failure to uphold the laws. The situation was like Bangkok was being held for ransom. A lot of businesses got affected because it's right in the middle of the major commercial area.



Again, think what your government would do if there were a large group of protesters blocking all traffic at Orchard Road in Singapore; Times Square in NYC; Ginza in Tokyo; or Knightsbridge in London for two months. They set up barricades to search through personal belongings of everyone travelling through the area. Also think what it would do if those protesters invaded a nearby hospital, causing doctors & nurses to evacuate patients -- some of whom are newborn babies in incubators and those in ICU -- to other hospitals. And most important of all, think what it would do if the protesters were found to have large stockpile of M79 grenades, M16 & AK47 assault rifles.



Do you think your government would be as tolerable as the Thai government?



Reungvit (Ging) Nandhabiwat

15 May 2010

Another facebook note expresses a similar sentiment:

To whom it may concern,

In every situation that involves man, there are always different points of views involved; some truthful, more accurate than others. However, a lot of us that reside here in Thailand believe that some of the foreign press are depicting situation here rather unfairly, be it with intent or without.

It seems most news releases are to defame the government for harming innocent civilians; when in fact, the military force, under state of emergency, is fighting armed terrorist group that use civilians as their human shields. In order to leave minimum damage and to bring peace back to the country as soon as possible, the military force has been ordered to use rubber bullets in the operation. Only in restricted zone that real bullets are being used; and with prior notice.

If we may dare ask, “aren’t journalists supposed to remain objective & unbiased?” With that said, we plead for foreign press compliance in fulfilling these rather small requests; being the worldly acclaimed journalists that you all are.

With the use of our proficiency in English, we, Thai people, hope to publish the “Truth” of the situation to the best of our abilities.

CORE NOTIONS

1. The government has announced protesters to leave Rajprasong site and nearby area. The protest is considered unlawful act of terror.

2. ‘Red Shirts’ who refuse to leave are in the intention of escalating violence and causing unrest.

3. Red Shirts leaders are the reasons behind all violence. They arouse and provoke protesters to incite violence and chaos

4. Red Shirts leaders hide themselves behind human shields of women and children. Majority of protesters in Rajprasong site don’t know that they are being used as pawns

5. The government has never intended for any violence to happen and is not involved in Seh. Dang’s shooting

FOR YOUR COOPERATION

1. Please help us find facts if possible with photographs or video clips from news footage and articles within Thailand.

2. Please translate into English and paste it on this page in facebook. We can all use it to copy-paste onto other international websites.

3. We will try to spread these facts to as many as possible international websites as possible.

4. Please write in style of bulletin so it is short and straight to the point.

One more for good measure:

I’m not in a popularity contest. I’m not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear: It’s a rebellion, so put an end to it _ with swiftness, severity and certainty.

The military coup in 2006 wrongly overthrew the then democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. That was no democracy.

The coup council handed the power back to the people in 2007. The People Power Party (PPP) won the following election. That was democracy.

The PPP was banned by the Constitution Court for electoral irregularities and the parliament _ the democratically elected representatives of Thailand _ voted the Democrats into power. That was democracy.

The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) argue against the Democrat-led coalition government’s legitimacy and protest for the government to step down and call a general election.

That was democracy.

And the UDD had won.

The goals of the UDD from the very start: They wanted a House dissolution. They will have one in September. They wanted a general election. They will have one on Nov 14. All within seven months and PM Abhisit Vejjajiva’s term actually ends in January 2012, a year and a half from now.

They should be dancing in the streets, celebrating victory. Then we can all go to the voting booth in November. Peace and democracy. But no.

The truth has revealed itself. The United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship is simply using democracy as a front in the interests of dictatorship.

Refusing the peaceful compromise, forsaking the democratic process, continuing to harm the country for the interests of one man, Thaksin Shinawatra, fighting against security forces of the rightful democratic government of Thailand _ that’s an uprising, it’s a rebellion.

It’s criminal. That is not democracy.

If you disagree with me and think the UDD is in the right, then let me simplify it: The next time you’re pulled over by the law in a traffic stop, you should just burn tyres, shoot slingshots at the cop and call him a dictator.

Anyone with an arrest warrant? No need to surrender. Barricade and fortify your home, fire slingshots and fire-crackers and call the law tyrannical.

Buy a lifetime membership to the Association of Anarchists. You don’t belong in a civilisation.

The UDD leaders agreed to the prime minister’s terms. But instead, Thaksin Shinawatra ordered Maj Gen Khattiya Sawasdipol to step on the brake. Because in his mind, he’s screaming: ”What about me!” ”What do I get out of this entire peace and democracy shenanigans!”

Here’s Thaksin’s dilemma. Peace and the democratic process don’t guarantee his return to power. Someone in Montenegro is kicking and screaming on the floor: ”Me! Me! Me! What about me!”

Accepting the compromise is a loss of face and may even make PM Abhisit look good in the eyes of the people, for biting the bullet and extending his hand. Thaksin Shinawatra can no longer rely on the voting booths. He can no longer rely on the democratic process.

The UDD has used democracy as a tool _ manipulated and exploited it to return Thaksin to power. Now that they are no longer confident that the democratic process will serve their interests, the UDD has transformed itself from a democratic movement into an uprising, a rebellion, a criminal organisation.

It’s worth repeating: They wanted a House dissolution. They have one in September. They wanted a general election. They have one on Nov 14. That’s democracy. Instead, they flushed democracy down the toilet.

So there’s no negotiation other than the complete and total capitulation by the government to the UDD’s every will and every whim. It’s a total victory that will embarrass the government in the eyes of the Kingdom and of the world and may possibly bury the Democrat party. That’s the game.

To Thaksin and the UDD, returning Thaksin to power is worth the 50-odd lives already lost. And that figure is bound to rise. More than 1,000 have been injured and that figure will rise. The billions of baht in economic damage. And that figure will rise.

It’s an uprising. It’s a rebellion. It’s criminal.

The UDD is screaming: ”Now! Now! Now! Prime Minister resign now!” Thaksin Shinawatra is crying: ”Me! Me! Me! I want my power back!” That’s not democracy. That’s a child that needs to be put across the lap for a good spanking.

Let me repeat it again: They wanted democracy. They had democracy. We can all go to the voting booth on Nov 14. But they flushed democracy down the toilet and chose instead, a rebellion.

And when there’s a rebellion, the government must put down the rebellion. Otherwise, we have anarchy. The law must be swift, severe and certain _ any student of criminology can tell you that.

I’ve watched television and read newspapers all this weekend. Most so-called intellectuals, academics and media talk about reconciliation. Well, that’s easy and safe _ using a thousand flowery words without saying anything worthwhile.

We reap what we sow. Again, I’m not in a popularity contest. I’m not a two-faced diplomat playing it safe and trying to please everyone. So let me say it loud and clear _ it’s a rebellion. To preserve civilisation, the government must put down the rebellion _ swift, severe and certain.

UDD members have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible. But they’ve died in a rebellion against the rightful, democratic government of Thailand.

The security forces that have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

Journalists and other innocent bystanders have lost their lives. This is unfortunate. It should never have happened. They should all be in our prayers and their families should be assisted in any way possible.

It didn’t have to come to this. It shouldn’t have come to this. But here we are on the brink of anarchy because of the pride, greed and vengefulness of one man, and of the indecisiveness, uncertainty and lack of leadership of another.

Let me repeat: We reap what we sow. It’s a rebellion. Put an end to it, swift, severe and certain. Or step down and let the rebels take over. The longer this crisis drags on, the closer we are and the deeper we will be in a state of anarchy.

Here's some background on the factions involved: http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/02/09/thailands-orange-revolution/

The current state of play: http://khikwai.com/blog/2010/05/10/the-end-of-the-beginning/

--

Reuters interview with Federico Ferrara:

Here are some comments I offered in a short email interview with a Reuters correspondent in Bangkok.


1) Who seems to have the edge and how long do you expect this to go on for? From our perspective, it seems to be getting worse. The military seem unable to establish control in various points of the city. But very interested in your view and the implications

As I write this, battles appear to be intensifying at Rama 4 and Din Daeng. At this point, I have a feeling that this might be just the beginning of the worst massacre of pro-democracy demonstrators in the history of the country. The fact that so many people have died without the army having gained much ground seems like a rather ominous sign that executing the full dispersal will take several times the number of casualties that are being officially reported at this time. From the government's standpoint, however, the worst case scenario is that the crackdown fails despite having killed dozens of people. So unless somebody stops them (a brave general like Krit Srivara did with Thanom in 1973; or someone else), my guess is that they will go all in. Having already started opening fire on civilians, journalists, emergency medical personnel, and generally everything that moves, the difference between 50, 100, or 200 deaths is just a number on a piece of paper.


2) At what point does Abhisit's position look tenous, and what would be the options if he were to be forced to step aside?

My guess is that he is finished already, but he is a convenient frontman for the time being. I would, however, be surprised to see him last very long after the successful completion of a crackdown, as he is already irreparably tarnished. So my expectation is that he will be used to carry out this carnage and then thrown overboard once he has served his purpose, as people more powerful than him attempt to keep what is likely to be a very fragile peace for some time to come. At this point, Abhisit survives only to shoulder the blame for whatever goes wrong between now and the end of these demonstrations.


3) Do you think there is chance this could spiral into a broader civil conflict?

Hard to say, because I don't have enough insight into the UDD organization. Besides, it's still hard to say what the state of its leadership will be once this is over. Will the leaders be in jail? In exile? Killed? What happens later largely depends on how this situation is brought to a close. I will say this, however: the potential for a broader civil conflict is high. Other than reclaiming 2-3 square kms of land, "winning" this fight solves nothing for this dying regime. In fact, it is conceivable they might have an even worse problem on their hands after they have "cleansed" Bangkok of the Red Shirts --- especially if they have to massacre hundreds of people in the process.

Guardian gets it right: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/17/thailand-protest-valiant-dead?CMP=twt_gu

Federico Ferrara on how a western government might respond to similar protests:

Many people are wondering/speculating about the way a liberal-democratic Western government would be responding to a situation like the one presently unfolding on the streets of Bangkok.

To get a perspective on this issue, the most extreme example I can think of is the Los Angeles riots in 1992.

This example is "extreme" because the LA rioters were far more unruly and violent than the Red Shirts have been over the past two months. During the LA riots, looting and torching of buildings was widespread (we have seen very little of this in Bangkok). So were armed attacks by mobs on civilians (mostly white and Korean) as well as gun fights between shopkeepers and mobs of assailants (again, very little of this has been seen here). Finally, the Red Shirts have engaged in very little property destruction (Central World would not have survived the first hour of the LA Riots); most of it has been incidental to fighting against the army's advance.

How did the American government react to the LA Riots? The short answer is "nothing like the Thai government has in this instance." See this time-line of the events for an overview: http://www.lafire.com/famous_fires/...2002-0429_latimes_ChartingTheHoursofChaos.htm. Plenty of other information, video, etc is widely available on the internet.

After the LAPD proved unable to deal with the situation, the state government mobilized about 4000 National Guard troops, while the federal government sent in about the same number of army troops shortly thereafter. Order was re-established in just a couple of days, but in large part thanks to crowd control techniques as opposed to shooting indiscriminately on the protesters.

The final toll of the riots, which lasted 6 days, was officially 54 deaths. However, it is noteworthy that the overwhelming majority of the people killed were killed by the demonstrators themselves (some voluntarily, some accidentally in fires/stampedes, etc.). There were some shootings carried out by the army/police in somewhat suspicious circumstances, but the army/police were not responsible for more than a handful of deaths.

It might be worth reflecting on why the American government was able to bring a much worse situation under control so quickly and without massacring dozens of people. Besides the issue of professionalism, I think that the answer has to do with the legitimacy of the government. Most established democracies enjoy what is known as "power without force" --- that is, they can maintain order with relatively little violence. Thailand's government is more of a case of "force without power" --- that is, it isn't able to control its citizenry in spite of a massive show of force.

Either way, the bottom line is that if you think that any Western government would have acted the same way the Thai government is acting today, you should think again.

Need to go now, here's a list of the best twitterers out of Bangkok for live updates:
@bangkokpundit @fishmyman @RedPhanFa2Day @KhiKwai @UDDThailand
@s_narut @AndrewHurd @willphd @Journotopia @Nganadeeleg @AtcBkkk
@ricefieldradio @RichardBarrow @farangone @tri26

Another video (graphic):

"A number of prominent international journalists in Bangkok have themselves witnessed unarmed protesters shot by Thai security forces, both on 10 April or over the past few days, especially in the “live-ammunition zones” established by the government."

"If the red shirts are armed and dangerous, you wouldn’t know it from the number of casualties: in the last two days, 29 protesters have been killed, and zero army and police personnel. This suggests disproportionate, excessive, and deadly force used by security forces in dispersing the protesters. But this skewing of numbers can’t last long: the situation created by the government has created has opened the doors wide to extremists on both sides."

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/05/17/bangkok-this-is-a-massacre/

Renegade general Seh Daeng has died this morning: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/05/17/2901669.htm?section=world

3PM Thai time (9am UK time) appears to be crucial. Protesters have been threatened with two years in jail if they haven't left the protest site by this time.

Not sure if that's when the military operation to re-take the site will also begin...

Deadline has passed. Not many have left the protest site, one reporter spoke to a woman at the site: "When I asked her if she thought it was worth sacrificing her child's life, she said it was worth it for the fight for democracy".

Behind the scenes political talks have been going on, but seem to have reached an impasse. Military action still most likely option right now. In any case all protesters still in the zone are now officially criminals, and face two years in jail.

"final entrance to the protest site is being sealed as we speak, with razor wire..."

Yep, lived in Thailand for two years 2006 - 2008, pretty much from the coup to the yellow shirt protests, actually. Went back last year for four months, and saw how people had become highly politicized. Every taxi driver would ask: "What do you think about the red shirts? What do you think about Thaksin? What do you think about democracy?"

Still have a Thai partner, who sits more towards the Abhisit side of the fence... so quite a lot of emotional investment in this for me really. I broadly support the red shirts though ~ that's probably clear from my posts, though am trying hard to consider both sides.

"Peaceful anti-government protests turned violent... Soon after, the government issued a statement stating it is 'necessary' to use police & military forces to quell the demonstrators."

Almost surreal how the events seem to be mirroring those of May 1992:http://www.2bangkok.com/09/1992headlines02.shtml

And a familiar argument trotted out again here in this open letter to CNN, no doubt penned by one of the urban middle class: "5. CNN has failed to report about the nature of most of the participants of the protest, a majority of which have come from the rural area without true understanding of the objective of the protest."

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=391717438961&id=1295516606

Government chief of propa... spokesman Panitan on a talk show right now: "Host to Panitan: Will you agree to ceasefire? Panitan: We didn't start the fighting"

"Panitan: We are able to communicate with red shirt leaders to get the women and children to a temple nearby"

Al-Jazeera: "No sign of a royal intervention, this time..." so perhaps not quite an exact repeat of 1992.

But still: "Shootings were in self-defense, says spokesman."
1992: http://www.2bangkok.com/09/1992headlines13.shtml