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HMGovt
20-02-2015, 12:37 PM
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4360260.ece

Russian tactics ‘could explode into full war with Nato’

Deborah Haynes Defence Editor
Published 1 minute ago
Tensions with Russia could spill over into all-out conflict that would pose an “existential threat to our whole being”, Britain’s top military commander in Nato warned today.
General Sir Adrian Bradshaw said President Putin could use ambiguous warfare and classic Soviet-style brinkmanship to seize Nato territory and change Europe’s borders.
“The threat from Russia and the risk it brings of a miscalculation resulting in a strategic conflict, however unlikely we see it as being right now, represents an existential threat to our whole being,” General Bradshaw, the deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said.
The warning, made in a speech at the Royal United Services Institute, follow remarks from Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, about the threat to European stability posed by an emboldened Russia in the wake of the crisis in Ukraine.
General Bradshaw, a former director of British special forces, said that a new strategy being used by the Kremlin posed two particular dangers.
The first was so-called hybrid warfare, using un-uniformed soldiers of unknown nationality backed by pro-Russian propaganda on television, radio and over the internet to distort reality and make it harder for Western governments to know who is calling the shots.
“The resulting ambiguity [makes] collective decisions relating to the appropriate responses more difficult,” General Bradshaw said.
He was referring to the need for all 28 Nato members to act collectively before any decision can be taken by the alliance – a core principal of Nato. If certain countries are not convinced of a particular, ambiguous threat, they might not support action to counter the danger, playing into Russia’s hands.
“Secondly, the danger that Russia might believe that the large scale conventional forces which she has shown she can generate at very short notice as we saw in the snap exercise that preceded the tak-over of Crimea could in future be used not only for intimidation and coercion but potentially to seize Nato territory,” General Bradshaw said.
“After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity. This use of so-called escalation dominance was of course a classic Soviet technique.”
Russian conducted large-scale military “exercises” close to the border it shares with Ukraine before the unrest broke out between pro-Russian separatists - which Nato believe included in their ranks actual Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms – and the Kiev government.
This resulted in the takeover of Crimea and the eruption of conflict across eastern Ukraine. Ending the violence, will likely see pro-Russian forces keep the territory that they have gained, creating a so-called “frozen conflict” that is in Moscow’s favour.
General Bradshaw’s remarks referred to the same kind of tactics being used, for example against one of the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, like Ukraine, have Russian-speaking minorities. Unlike Ukraine, however, they are also members of Nato. This means that an attack on one of these countries should trigger a military response from the whole alliance.
This is a well-understood concept for conventional warfare involving tanks and bullets and clearly identifiable soldiers. It becomes less certain when ambiguous techniques are deployed, the water is muddied, and Nato leaders are not sure who is the enemy.

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 12:44 PM
Living through the eighties never felt as dangerous as this. Mutually Assured Destruction was easier to live with, even as a kid, than this hybrid war militarism from an irredentist Russia. How does the world get out of this one?

luka
20-02-2015, 01:01 PM
I noticed this is the drum pilgers been beating recently. I'm sure craner has something to say. He was in a bellicose mood last night. Repeatedly shouting I HAD PUTINS NUMBER TEN YEARS AGO AND YOU ALL IGNORED ME. YOU FOOLS, LOOK AT WHAT HAS COME TO PASS

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 01:03 PM
I noticed this is the drum pilgers been beating recently. I'm sure craner has something to say. He was in a bellicose mood last night. Repeatedly shouting I HAD PUTINS NUMBER TEN YEARS AGO AND YOU ALL IGNORED ME. YOU FOOLS, LOOK AT WHAT HAS COME TO PASS

I had Putin's number 17-or-so years ago when he orchestrated the destruction of Grozny.

It may be kicking off in Lithuania already

http://www.defence24.com/analysis_moscow-is-getting-ready-for-a-hybrid-war-with-lithuania-is-the-polish-minority-going-to-be-the-flashpoint

luka
20-02-2015, 01:03 PM
I know who is at fault in this war. Just go back to Georgia in 2008, or Ukraine 2004, or Georgia 2003. Or Uzbekistan 2005, Azerbaijan 2004, Belarus since 1999. Been onto Putin for years.
Go read my Belarus and Azerbaijan pieces from 2004, or the Passion of Yulia Tymoshenko essay from 2011, and the Karimova essays from the same year. It's all there.

luka
20-02-2015, 01:04 PM
He won't like me quoting him but if he won't blow his own trumpet...

luka
20-02-2015, 01:05 PM
Craner will bridle at that piece of onemanupmamship HMg. He likes to think he stands alone

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 01:07 PM
He won't like me quoting him but if he won't blow his own trumpet...

that's all obvious, obviously, and not in dispute. My question is how many dead people a year from now? We've had maybe 10,000 since the snipers took out demonstrators in Kiev on 18/2/2014. I reckon maybe 100,000 to 1 million by this time next year and the rest of us by 2020, at this rate.

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 01:11 PM
that's all obvious, obviously, and not in dispute. My question is how many dead people a year from now? We've had maybe 10,000 since the snipers took out demonstrators in Kiev on 18/2/2014. I reckon maybe 100,000 to 1 million by this time next year and the rest of us by 2020, at this rate.

It may be quick, but more likely starvation and exposure for us here in the British Isles, assuming they lay off the biological and chemical weapons. But on the upside (ever the optimist) the housing market may rationalise.

Our stunted descendants will likely talk darkly of "the day the Internet went off". It's wrong to say ours is the worst of all possible worlds, but it's definitely in the lower quartile.

luka
20-02-2015, 01:18 PM
Let me know the optimum time 4 me to use my nz citizenship and escape to the south Pacific pls

luka
20-02-2015, 01:25 PM
Or should we work out a assassinate Putin plan?

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 01:37 PM
Or should we work out a assassinate Putin plan?

There were 5 attempts over the past decade or so during various overseas visits, including one in London that was foiled by the Met. It's an open and unsettling question we're all having to get to grips with: what does he want? where will he stop? Emperor of the World or just champion of Russia?

luka
20-02-2015, 02:01 PM
Met failure 2 c bigger picture or clue to overarching conspiracy?

luka
20-02-2015, 02:01 PM
Are wars the product of the rational or the irrational?

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 02:47 PM
Are wars the product of the rational or the irrational?

Who cares? This isn't a philosophical issue, you're pissing in the wind, wasting your time even bothering to burn valuable brain glucose (or whatever sulphorous ichor your mind sucks nutrients from) pontificating on bollocks like that. Protect and survive, yo. Shit's getting real.

luka
20-02-2015, 03:04 PM
I can just go nz mate, I can afford to speculate, it's you that's fucked

HMGovt
20-02-2015, 03:13 PM
I can just go nz mate, I can afford to speculate, it's you that's fucked

Blue water navy. You'll feel the Russian or Chinese jackboot just as keenly down there.

Leo
20-02-2015, 03:31 PM
ISIS has done such an effective job at social media that people here in the States seem much more preoccupied and fearful of them than of the Russian situation, which seems disproportional to the actual danger posed by each.

trza
20-02-2015, 07:18 PM
Abdul Muhid, 32, continued along these lines. He was dressed in mujahideen chic when I met him at a local restaurant: scruffy beard, Afghan cap, and a wallet outside of his clothes, attached with what looked like a shoulder holster. When we sat down, he was eager to discuss welfare. The Islamic State may have medieval-style punishments for moral crimes (lashes for boozing or fornication, stoning for adultery), but its social-welfare program is, at least in some aspects, progressive to a degree that would please an MSNBC pundit. Health care, he said, is free. (“Isn’t it free in Britain, too?,” I asked. “Not really,” he said. “Some procedures aren’t covered, such as vision.”) This provision of social welfare was not, he said, a policy choice of the Islamic State, but a policy obligation inherent in God’s law.


They live among us. Last fall, I visited the Philadelphia mosque of Breton Pocius, 28, a Salafi imam who goes by the name Abdullah. His mosque is on the border between the crime-ridden Northern Liberties neighborhood and a gentrifying area that one might call Dar al-Hipster; his beard allows him to pass in the latter zone almost unnoticed.


http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

vimothy
21-02-2015, 08:16 AM
All the cool kids are discussing that Atlantic piece. Still, I thought this was a bit rich: "Putin could use ambiguous warfare and classic Soviet-style brinkmanship to seize Nato territory and change Europe’s borders".

Mr. Tea
22-02-2015, 10:05 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=FmCgSr8Gloo

craner
24-02-2015, 08:43 PM
Vimothy, is that a slightly occluded anti-NATO comment you made there?

sufi
24-02-2015, 09:44 PM
All the cool kids are discussing that Atlantic piece.
Beyond Authenticity: ISIS and the Islamic Legal Tradition

by Sohaira Siddiqui
jadaliyya.com
Feb 24 2015
(http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/20944/beyond-authenticity_isis-and-the-islamic-legal-tra)

Mr. Tea
25-02-2015, 08:32 AM
Beyond Authenticity: ISIS and the Islamic Legal Tradition

(http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/20944/beyond-authenticity_isis-and-the-islamic-legal-tra)



Muslims globally have gone on the defensive, denying any relationship between the religion and the group.

Oh but of course! Just like there was no link at all between Christianity and, say, the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem witch trials.

Honestly, the amount of No-True-Scotsmanry that goes on around groups like AQ, ISIS, Boko etc. is unbelievable.

vimothy
25-02-2015, 10:32 AM
Craner, I sometimes suspect that you are the only person who reads my comments!

HMGovt
25-02-2015, 11:16 AM
U.S. military vehicles paraded 300 yards from the Russian border

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/02/24/u-s-military-vehicles-paraded-300-yards-from-the-russian-border/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=http://pildid.mil.ee/var/albums/2015_02_24_eesti_vabariik/2012_02_24_paraad/MG_2910.jpg?m=1424811713&w=1484

vimothy
25-02-2015, 12:01 PM
Although, glibness aside, it's not that I'm anti-NATO (far from it), but that the EU is caught up in a web of contradictions. It wants to expand its own territory by dissolving national borders. That is the sine qua non of the EU. So it can't very well complain (at least in a principled way) when the Russian gangster-state attempts to do some border-dissolving of its own, in the name of ethnic Russians in the Crimea and its strategically important seaport at Sevastapol. At the same time, the military threat of Europe could hardly be more pathetic, -- transparently so -- and its people, who have long since ceased to believe in their shared nationhood, can't be expected to rise to the defence of nations or borders that no longer exist. (The very idea is risible.) Thus, the Ukraine is dying, not in a glorious way as it ascends to a higher plane of existence in the EU, but in the sad mire and mud of historical reality.

trza
25-02-2015, 03:16 PM
I still think its a media double standard when teenage girls run away to join Isis its treated like some kind of international outrage, on par with the slavery and the genocide. British Teen Jihadi Brides, like there is some kind of contradiction there.

On another note,

I had a peer on another forum who was obsessed with chat sites that claimed to be with Ukrainian Brides. He insisted on calling them "Slavic Goddesses", and wished he had the money to meet one. The forum then was targeted by spammers who kept bumping this thread about the guy chatting with "slavic goddesses", giving us more and more links to ukrainian love chat sites.

Leo
25-02-2015, 04:17 PM
I still think its a media double standard when teenage girls run away to join Isis its treated like some kind of international outrage, on par with the slavery and the genocide. British Teen Jihadi Brides, like there is some kind of contradiction there.

but isn't the media attention more because it's just much more rare/unusual for young females to run off and join terrorist groups on the other side of the world? the vast majority of people who do so are typically male, right?

Mr. Tea
25-02-2015, 06:18 PM
I still think its a media double standard when teenage girls run away to join Isis its treated like some kind of international outrage, on par with the slavery and the genocide. British Teen Jihadi Brides, like there is some kind of contradiction there.


Either I'm being dense or you haven't explained yourself very well. Between what and what is the contradiction?

mrfaucet
03-03-2015, 11:47 AM
China will be marking the 70th anniversary of the end of WW2 with a... military parade, naturally.


Back in 2009, an official from the National Day Military Parade Joint Command attempted to reassure observers that the public display of China’s military might was not meant to intimidate anyone. “A country’s military ability is not a threat to anyone; what is important is its military policy,” he insisted. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying echoed this stance when asked about the 2015 military parade in Tuesday’s press conference. “By hosting commemorative events with other counties, China is to awaken each and every virtuous man’s desire for and commitment to peace, to refresh people’s memory of the history and love for peace, and to showcase China’s staunch position of upholding the victory of WWII and the post-war international order, and safeguarding world peace,” Hua said.

One Chinese media report, however, is offering a different explanation. An online piece from People’s Daily attempts to unravel the political significance of China for the first time holding a military parade not linked to the anniversary of the PRC founding. The very first reason? “To display China’s military power.” Military might is a crucial aspect of national strength, the piece explains, the necessary backing for both political chess matches and economic competition. Now that China has become a major player in the world’s geopolitical scene, it’s time for China to display its military power.

The second reason given by the People’s Daily piece is the one receiving all the attention: “to intimidate Japan.” The piece explains, “In recent years, backed by the U.S. return to Asia strategy for containing China, Japan’s China policy has been more and more unrestrained… Barring an unexpected occurrence, Japan is going to take further steps toward amending its pacifist constitution and pushing toward national normalization.” The only way to stop this “insane attempt,” the piece argues, is for China to show its own military might and demonstrate its determination not to allow Japan to change the post-war order.

To place this analysis in context, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent comments about the way he will frame his statement on the war have caused consternation in China. As the Asahi Shimbun reported Monday, Abe might omit certain expressions used in past apologies by former prime ministers Tomiichi Murayama and Junichiro Koizumi, focusing instead on Japan’s “intentions for the future, such as what contribution Japan will make for the globe and what sort of world it will help to create.” China immediately reacted with dismay; Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said China would be paying close attention to see if Japan is “trying to deny or water down that part of history.”

But as much as China’s military parade might be a message to Japan, warning against historical revisionism, it’s aimed even more at the U.S. Even the People’s Daily piece gave a nod to this by repeating a commonly held view in China – that Japan is only causing problems because the U.S. seeks to use it to “contain” China. The parade is meant to convey the message that China has arrived militarily on the world stage. It now has the clout to back up its economic and political interests with force (as, it must be noted, a last resort).

Further adding geopolitical spice to the parade, Chinese media report that Russian President Vladimir Putin is widely expected to attend the parade. According to Chinese media reports, this will be the first time a foreign leader has ever attended such a military parade and the accompanying troop review ceremony. Just as U.S. President Barack Obama spent Monday watching a display of Indian military might, Putin will sit at Xi’s side to watch the Chinese military strut its stuff. Talk about sending a geopolitical message.

http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/chinas-military-parade-a-warning-to-japan-and-the-us/