I don't want a Tory majority, if that's what you're getting at. I've been canvassing for Chris Ellmore in the Vale of Glamorgan. I have a Labour placard outside my house. I'm not exactly enthused by Miliband or the current Labour policy platform, but I still think Labour are the best option for this country. I think they have to face up to the fact that they ramped up borrowing in 2007-9 to reckless levels and this smashed against the banking collapse which they had a small part in creating. However Labour spending up to 2007 was not hugely out of scale with previous governments. Between 1998-2000 they had the lowest borrowing since the Second World War. It was Brown that wrecked it, by the massive spike in borrowing before the 2010 election and laying prostrate in front of the investment banking sector throughout the Labour years.
But the polls do suggest that there is a large chunk of the population who haven't, or can't decide. Up to 40%, I think. This matches my experience of the doorsteps of the Vale of Glamorgan. The things they are agitated about - welfare, immigration, national debt -are things that are being answered by the Tories and UKIP in a way that matches their concerns and fears. People who are voting for the other parties have already decided, I believe, and will say so. Scotland is undoubtdly wrapped up for the SNP. The large, hedged, silent vote is largely for UKIP and Conservatives. So I think that UKIP will do better than current polls suggest, and this may or may not translate into actual seats, but the real winners of this hedged, silent vote will be the Tories.
It is mostly instinct, though. I won't be surprised if I am wrong, but I won't be surprised if I am right, either. I am calling it though.