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Woebot
25-06-2016, 10:06 AM
oof!

well - although i certainly didn't vote for it (http://www.woebot.com/2016/06/remainer.html) - it has happened. consequently it seems like the sane thing is to try and come to terms with it.

funnily enough the voices in the aftermath i've found comfort from are people who i usually cannot stand - that's the duo at the guardian of john harris (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/divided-britain-brexit-money-class-inequality-westminster) and owen jones (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-working-class-revolt-grieve) who unlike ALL the insular metropolitan socialists (corbyns final remain rally beside the guardian's offices beside a waitrose in islington - lol) that make up labour today have realised that this is the working class speaking.

the comment leading harris' article "'If you've got money, you vote in ... if you haven't got money, you vote out'" - rings very powerfully over this. and frankly - although i think it's an insane, paranoid and even suicidal thing for the uk to have to done to itself, it has to be reckoned with.

vimothy
25-06-2016, 10:14 AM
Harris's article is very good.

vimothy
25-06-2016, 10:28 AM
Worth excerpting some of it:


Most of all, Brexit is the consequence of the economic bargain struck in the early 1980s, whereby we waved goodbye to the security and certainties of the postwar settlement, and were given instead an economic model that has just about served the most populous parts of the country, while leaving too much of the rest to anxiously decline....

For six years now, often with my colleague John Domokos, I have been travelling around the UK... trying to divine the national mood, if such a thing exists. I look back, and find all sorts of auguries of what has just happened. As an early warning, there was the temporary arrival of the British National party in electoral politics from 2006 onwards..

A few years later, we met builders in South Shields who told us that their hourly rate had come down by £3 thanks to new arrivals from eastern Europe; the mother in Stourbridge who wanted a new school for “our kids”; the former docker in Liverpool who looked at rows of empty warehouses and exclaimed, “Where’s the work?”

In Peterborough in 2013, we found a town riven by cold resentments, where people claimed agencies would only hire non-UK nationals who would work insane shifts for risible rates; in the Ukip heartlands of Lincolnshire, we chronicled communities built around agricultural work and food processing that were cleanly divided in two, between optimistic new arrivals and resentful, miserable locals – where Nigel Farage could pitch up and do back-to-back public meetings to rapturous crowds....

In so many places, there has long been the same mixture of deep worry and often seething anger. Only rarely has it tipped into outright hate.. but it still seems to represent a new turn in the national condition.

More:


And all the time, the story that has now reached such a spectacular denouement has been bubbling a way. Last year, 3.8 million people voted for Ukip. The Labour party’s vote is in a state of seemingly unstoppable decline as its membership becomes ever-more metropolitan and middle class, problems the ascendancy of Jeremy Corbyn has seemingly made worse. Indeed, if the story of the last few months is of politicians who know far too little of their own supposed “core” voters, the Labour leader might be seen as that problem incarnate. The trade unions are nowhere to be seen, and the Thatcher-era ability of Conservatism to speak powerfully to working-class aspiration has been mislaid. In short, England and Wales were characterised by an ever-growing vacuum, until David Cameron – now surely revealed as the most disastrous holder of the office in our democratic history – made the decision that might turn out to have utterly changed the terms of our politics.

(...)

Of course, most of the media, which is largely now part of the same detached London entity that great English patriot William Cobbett called “the thing”, failed to see this coming. Their world is one of photo ops, the great non-event that is PMQs, and absurd debates between figures that the public no longer cares about. The alienation of the people charged with documenting the national mood from the people who actually define it is one of the ruptures that has led to this moment: certainly, wherever I go, the press and television are the focus of as much resentment as politics. While we are on the subject, it is also time we set aside the dismal science of opinion polling, which should surely now stick to product testing and the like. Understanding of the country at large has for too long been framed in percentages and leading questions: it is time people went into the country, and simply listened.

baboon2004
25-06-2016, 10:51 AM
Very good article, though I don't agree with everything he says.

And specifically wrt Corbyn - snipe all you want, but the alternatives are much worse.

For me personally, the greatest priority now is seeing Corbyn continue at the head of the Labour Party. If he goes, and is replaced by someone whose opposition to austerity is mere rhetoric and whose involvement in politics is based purely upon their career advancement rather than principle (which has obviously been the idea all along, since....the second he was confirmed as the leader?), then there will be no meaningful choice at the next general election, and Britain* will again have got exactly what it has asked for. And then endlessly complains about.

*Sorry, England & Wales (& NI?)

sadmanbarty
25-06-2016, 11:41 AM
I've decided to opt for complete denial/ deluded fantasy:

https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/24/when-i-say-no-i-mean-maybe/

He makes reference to anecdotal evidence of fairly large voter regret. This certainly suggests so:

https://twitter.com/louisa_compton/status/746279848180592640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

luka
25-06-2016, 12:34 PM
If you've got money, you vote in ... if you haven't got money, you vote out'"

Is broadly true but in London and other multicultural cities the picture is very different

vimothy
25-06-2016, 02:58 PM
I've not seen a detailed breakdown of London, but the general trend is clear enough:

http://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/median.png?itok=7cFh1qS-

At the Guardian page (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis) where those charts originate, they also discuss what they call the "east London exception":


Although remain was strong almost everywhere in the capital, leave had a majority in the east London working class neighbourhoods of Havering, Barking and Dagenham, plus Bexley and a number of neighbouring areas in the Thames estuary. These were traditional Labour strongholds that swung to UKIP in the general election.

comelately
25-06-2016, 05:40 PM
Hillingdon voted for Brexit too, as did Sutton. Yeah, slightly more of a tendency in East London suburbia but wouldn't get too carried away.

luka
25-06-2016, 08:10 PM
Those places are all Essex

baboon2004
25-06-2016, 11:18 PM
So, Boris is now wearing the blank shock of a man who has just walked free of the wreckage of an airplane disaster. Doesn't seem to have got what he wanted after all....

Mr. Tea
25-06-2016, 11:56 PM
the blank shock of a man who has just walked free of the wreckage of an airplane disaster

I'm sure I've seen that look somewhere before...

http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/TimelineGenerator/bin/img/1425410844780/dazed-and-plane_1630938i.jpg

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 12:00 AM
So, Boris is now wearing the blank shock of a man who has just walked free of the wreckage of an airplane disaster. Doesn't seem to have got what he wanted after all....

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit

baboon2004
26-06-2016, 01:07 AM
Yep - is there a chance he won't even stand for PM? He knows there's a big chance that he'll end up being hated by absolutely everyone, which might be unbearable for such an attention-seeker.

And Tea, I'd forgotten about that picture. Extraordinary. Farage's mask slips.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 09:33 AM
Corbyn has sacked Benn and now half the shadow cabinet has resigned. Looking a lot like a coup:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/26/brexit-live-jeremy-corbyn-sacks-hilary-benn-tory-leadership

Woebot
26-06-2016, 09:50 AM
For me personally, the greatest priority now is seeing Corbyn continue at the head of the Labour Party.

jeremy corbyn is a bourgeois fantasist. socialism does not appeal to the working classes - frankly they are too sensible.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 10:40 AM
socialism does not appeal to the working classes

It doesn't now. It certainly used to.

droid
26-06-2016, 11:09 AM
Yeah, get rid of the only party leader who opposes austerity, that's the solution.

But yes, it seems the 'working classes' have chosen fascism over socialism.

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 11:13 AM
Russia and China have turned capitalist, the working class has turned nativist and hipsters have turned libertarian. At this point the only socialists left are 3 blokes on this message board.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 11:15 AM
Labour needs a leader who opposes austerity but also acts like a leader. Who that could be, I don't know. The odds aren't looking good right now. Maybe Corbyn can still be that leader. Who knows.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 11:16 AM
At this point the only socialists left are 3 blokes on this message board.

Trying desperately to think who the third one is...

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 11:22 AM
The Lib Dems are running on a platform of not invoking article 50. Labour needs a leader to do the same and that should take precedence over anti-austerity positions (after all, the economic effects of Brexit will be worse than the effects of austerity).

Woebot
26-06-2016, 11:32 AM
" that among the divides exposed in this referendum, the most dangerous one was within a Labour movement that cared more for the moral high ground of progressive liberalism than the lives of the working and non-working poor."

link (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-hampstead-bonus-rich-immune-politics-andy-burnham)

Woebot
26-06-2016, 11:33 AM
Yeah, get rid of the only party leader who opposes austerity, that's the solution.

corbyn isn't going anywhere till labour lose the next election

droid
26-06-2016, 11:37 AM
" that among the divides exposed in this referendum, the most dangerous one was within a Labour movement that cared more for the moral high ground of progressive liberalism than the lives of the working and non-working poor."

link (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-hampstead-bonus-rich-immune-politics-andy-burnham)

lol. Yeah, thats clearly the most dangerous divide, not the divide between multicultural minorities and racist neo-fascist murdering thugs, who will edge closer and closer to power once Scotland dumps the UK and the remainder moves to an eternal little england Tory one party state.

droid
26-06-2016, 11:49 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl3terVXIAE4rjT.jpg

vimothy
26-06-2016, 11:53 AM
Another good article: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/divided-britain-how-referendum-exposed-britains-culture-war

vimothy
26-06-2016, 11:54 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClzdAR2WIAEJYOY.jpg:large

vimothy
26-06-2016, 12:04 PM
From Stephen Bush's article in the New Statesman:


At the start of the campaign, the question that most accurately predicted whether you would back Remain or Leave was consistently: “Are you a graduate?” (Those who answered yes were much more likely to vote in favour of staying in the EU.) Stronger In never found a way to change that and win over those who left education at 18 or earlier...

This fissure has been growing for the best part of a decade and a half, but Britain’s first-past-the-post system, which deters newcomers and maintains entrenched parties, has provided a degree of insulation to Labour that its European cousins have lacked...

In office, both Blair and Brown calculated, wrongly, that Labour’s core vote had “nowhere else to go”. In opposition under Ed Miliband, the party calculated, again wrongly, that discontent with immigration, and the rise of Ukip powered by that discontent, was a problem for the Conservative Party alone.

In a 2014 pamphlet for the Fabian Society, *Revolt on the Left, the activist Marcus Roberts, the academic Rob Ford and the analyst Ian Warren warned that Labour had “few reasons to cheer about the Ukip insurgency and plenty to worry about”. When the votes were cast in the general election the following year, that prediction turned out to be dispiritingly accurate...

For the most part, however, first-past-the-post papered over the cracks in Labour’s broad coalition: cracks that, in the harsh light of the EU referendum, have become obvious. The divide isn’t simply one of class, or income.... Inhospitality towards Brexit proved a stronger indication of city status than a mere cathedral: Vote Leave generally found Britain’s great cities more difficult terrain than the surrounding towns and countryside.

The problem of the fracturing vote is particularly acute for the Labour Party... Britain’s EU referendum placed Hampstead and Hull on opposing sides for the first time in modern British political history.

It was Tony Blair who... said that the new debate in politics was not left against right, but “open v closed” – openness to immigration, to diversity, to the idea of Europe...

At the 2015 election Labour’s coalition was drawn from the young, ethnic minorities and the well educated... The party was repudiated in the Midlands, went backwards in Wales and was all but wiped out in the east of England. (Scotland was another matter altogether.) Its best results came in Britain’s big cities and university towns.

The Remain campaign gave Labour a glimpse of how Miliband’s manifesto might have fared without the reassuring imprimatur of a red rosette. Britain Stronger In Europe has been rejected in the Midlands and struggled in the east of England. But it also failed to inspire passion in Sunderland, Oldham and Hull – all areas that, for now, return Labour MPs.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 12:38 PM
I can't remember who posted this (http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit) in the previous thread, but thanks, whoever it was. It's bloody good.


I’ve long suspected that, on some unconscious level, things could be even stranger than this: the self-harm inflicted by Brexit could potentially be part of its appeal. It is now being reported that many Leave voters are aghast at what they’ve done, as if they never really intended for their actions to yield results.

This taps into a much broader cultural and political malaise, that also appears to be driving the rise of Donald Trump in the US. Amongst people who have utterly given up on the future, political movements don’t need to promise any desirable and realistic change. If anything, they are more comforting and trustworthy if predicated on the notion that the future is beyond rescue, for that chimes more closely with people’s private experiences. The discovery of the ‘Case Deaton effect’ in the US (unexpected rising mortality rates amongst white working classes) is linked to rising alcohol and opiate abuse and to rising suicide rates. It has also been shown to correlate closely to geographic areas with the greatest support for Trump. I don’t know of any direct equivalent to this in the UK, but it seems clear that – beyond the rhetoric of ‘Great Britain’ and ‘democracy’ – Brexit was never really articulated as a viable policy, and only ever as a destructive urge, which some no doubt now feel guilty for giving way to.

Thatcher and Reagan rode to power by promising a brighter future, which never quite materialised other than for a minority with access to elite education and capital assets. The contemporary populist promise to make Britain or American ‘great again’ is not made in the same way. It is not a pledge or a policy platform; it’s not to be measured in terms of results. When made by the likes of Boris Johnson, it’s not even clear if it’s meant seriously or not. It’s more an offer of a collective real-time halucination, that can be indulged in like a video game.

vimothy
26-06-2016, 12:50 PM
How much of that (alleged regret of leave voters, stupidly not knowing what the EU is or that their votes might have an effect) is a real phenomenon and how much an extension of the same derision from remain voters that clearly motivated many of them in the first place?

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 12:51 PM
this was a vote from the *white* working classes (majority of BME voters, most of whom are still working class, did not vote the same, not cos they love how things are, or its any better, but because to vote leave would be tantamount to a vote for UKIP, if not in name, than in ideology) to the rest of the country. nothing to do with the EU. and i dont really blame them. the campaigns were dire and did little to really identify any of the actual EU related issues at stake. also seems to be a big vote from white, older pensioners, or those approaching pensionable age (there was some stat about how people who identified as british were less likely to vote leave than those who saw themselves as english) yearning for the days of post-empire enriched britain.

might as well not have had boxes for in or out, but just for 'the past' and 'the modern world'. most people in the interviews are angry, talk about how things cant get any worse. its a rejection of the bleakness of modern britain. (all those brexit regret videos seem like further condescension of anyone who opposed remain, a way to avoid accepting why they voted how they did. also, telling leave voters that they are thick and did not understand what they were doing is a fast track to further 'culture war', which looks like the latest rebranding of class war to my eyes, but n/m).

easy for cameron to just resign after being the one to get us into this situation in the first place, who made it easier for poorer people around the country to slip into dire straits. also really poor of labour to think now is the time for yet another leadership battle. all sinking ships. id expect boris to lead england. not because anyone really has hope in him. but because they just dont care anymore. and there is no one better. (and also because he is a duplicitous, soulless cunt, who will do anything to take power).

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 12:56 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/a-pyrrhic-victory-boris-johnson-wakes-up-to-the-costs-of-brexit

ah who gives a shit. he might be sad that he has made his friend resign from being PM, but hes not that sad. he got what he wanted.


Yep - is there a chance he won't even stand for PM? He knows there's a big chance that he'll end up being hated by absolutely everyone, which might be unbearable for such an attention-seeker.

only in london. or some of the other cities perhaps. elsewhere, i doubt he inspires that kind of hate.




" that among the divides exposed in this referendum, the most dangerous one was within a Labour movement that cared more for the moral high ground of progressive liberalism than the lives of the working and non-working poor."

Yeah, thats clearly the most dangerous divide, not the divide between multicultural minorities and racist neo-fascist murdering thugs, who will edge closer and closer to power once Scotland dumps the UK and the remainder moves to an eternal little england Tory one party state.

it is. but on street level, it will be the usual scapegoats (migrants, anyone who looks like a migrant, etc etc).

eg - https://www.facebook.com/sarah.leblanc.718/media_set?set=a.10101369198638985&type=3

vimothy
26-06-2016, 01:13 PM
Mostly anecdotal, but still a note making the intuitively correct point that more settled and lower income migrants are more likely to have voted leave:


In the aftermath of yesterday’s vote for Brexit, I had several conversations that surprised me. The first, with a Romanian who had recently arrived in the UK, who claimed that all the Indians and Pakistanis he knew had voted for Brexit. The second, with Pakistani friends, was that an overwhelming majority of their friends had voted for Brexit, even though they did not normally vote. The reasons given were economic: they expected lower taxes and lower competition from Eastern European migrants in low-wage jobs.

Slough, Luton and Dagenham, all areas with large South Asian populations voted leave, and Leicester, Newham and Harrow were very close to 50%. This may mirror a quixotic pattern that we saw in the last general election, where older Irish voters supported UKIP over Labour. Migrants, especially settled migrants in a precarious economic situation, can see other migrants as a threat, especially where they are not linked to them by ties of family or culture. Paul Collier argues that recent migrants are much more likely to lose out from further migration than other people.

http://www.integrationhub.net/britains-ethnic-minorities-and-the-brexit-vote/

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 01:18 PM
no one is saying all BME people voted remain. its something like 60% asian brits voted remain, and 70% black brits voted remain. what can you do? migrants are as competitive as anyone else. and often people just give the new arrivals the same treatment they got. hard hearts, poor memories.

vimothy
26-06-2016, 01:24 PM
Sure, and how that vote is distributed is likely to vary along different lines, like income, age, location, etc, etc. Be nice to see some statistics showing how it all breaks down.

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 01:25 PM
How much of that (alleged regret of leave voters, stupidly not knowing what the EU is or that their votes might have an effect) is a real phenomenon and how much an extension of the same derision from remain voters that clearly motivated many of them in the first place?

Given that it is all anecdotal evidence, it'd be hard to say. I'm hoping polling will give us a more accurate answer.

After seeing the immediate economic shock, the potential break up of the Union and the back peddling on pledges such as funding the NHS and reducing immigration, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a fair bit of voter regret.

Polls showed that the majority of people weren't willing to lose a single pound of their annual income to reduce immigration. At the same time the areas that are the most economically dependant on the EU voted to leave. This would suggest voters were fairly ignorant on how the EU benefited them.

There's been a shift in editorial tone from the Daily Mail (1.5 million circulation) and the Sunday Times. That might make a difference.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 01:39 PM
I don't think the derision is entirely underserved. Many people in this country are genuinely ignorant of nearly every aspect of politics.

I mean, I admit that I'm ignorant compared to some people who post a lot about politics here, but at least I know that.

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 01:42 PM
After seeing the immediate economic shock, the potential break up of the Union and the back peddling on pledges such as funding the NHS and reducing immigration, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a fair bit of voter regret.

some. but most are probably still angry for the same things. now they might also just angry at lying politicians. but they probably still just want a change, any change. this sort of self flattery from remainers, 'cant they just see the error of their ways?!', makes me laugh a bit. do british people care that much about being lied to? im not sure. i think we are inured to it. i dont think most remainers really knew what they were voting for either. all it seemed to come down to was what 'idea' of england we wanted, rather than any material issues at play. which is important. i think this has changed britain psychologically. but most people seemed in the dark i think.

TBH, and i know google exists, but one of this countrys main failings in education i think is not teaching politics early enough to students. though obv that depends what kind of school you went to.

baboon2004
26-06-2016, 01:58 PM
jeremy corbyn is a bourgeois fantasist. socialism does not appeal to the working classes - frankly they are too sensible.

Can you explain exactly what you mean by 'bourgeois fantasist' here - I'm interested, as just throwing around vague insults that sound nice is no use to anyone. Especially at the moment.

And I think you might be romanticising wildly there. It is abundantly clear this week that, as in the middle class and the upper class and every damn class, there are some staggeringly thick people in the working classes. There are also some incredibly bright people and some people of medium intelligence and.... jeez. Is this really a sponsored week for ridiculous blanket statements (and yes, I'm sure I'm guilty of it too)?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale just to be lazy and take the most bleedingly obvious example

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 02:00 PM
this was a vote from the *white* working classes

And Mandy Suthi (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/im-full-of-regret---extraordinary-moment-brexit-voter-changes-he/), lol.

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 02:08 PM
well, yes, her too, excellent detective work.

baboon2004
26-06-2016, 02:11 PM
this was a vote from the *white* working classes (majority of BME voters, most of whom are still working class, did not vote the same, not cos they love how things are, or its any better, but because to vote leave would be tantamount to a vote for UKIP, if not in name, than in ideology) to the rest of the country. nothing to do with the EU. and i dont really blame them.

I can agree with all of that (the working class has certainly been painted as monolithic this week across the media, as though non-white working class people were just an illusion), except the last part. This was a protest vote that will only end up hurt working class communities, and which shows a tacit acceptance of racist right-wing ideologies. I think that is something for which people absolutely can and should be held responsible, especially as there are obviously many, many white working class people who didn't vote to screw their own communities yet further, or to bolster racism and xenophobia.

Which is not to say that I don't understand the protest vote, because it's obviously understandable. It's just self-defeating and catering to fascism.

vimothy
26-06-2016, 02:18 PM
Dismissing and deriding the concerns of ordinary people is what led to the outcome of the referendum - and similar dynamics are still at play in most major European countries. The plebs may be uneducated, but many of them figured out how their betters regard them, and how they could be hurt. The "secret people (http://www.cse.dmu.ac.uk/~mward/gkc/books/secret-people.html)" have proved willing and able to take Britain out of the EU to make their voices heard; perhaps, instead of this wishful thinking, it's time to start listening.

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 02:23 PM
I can agree with all of that (the working class has certainly been painted as monolithic this week across the media, as though non-white working class people were just an illusion), except the last part. This was a protest vote that will only end up hurt working class communities, and which shows a tacit acceptance of racist right-wing ideologies. I think that is something for which people absolutely can and should be held responsible, especially as there are obviously many, many white working class people who didn't vote to screw their own communities yet further, or to bolster racism and xenophobia.

Which is not to say that I don't understand the protest vote, because it's obviously understandable. It's just self-defeating and catering to fascism.

agreed.

baboon2004
26-06-2016, 02:26 PM
@ Vimothy - I don't know if that's aimed at my comment, but I agree with you anyways on the practical necessity of offering something better to those people who feel completely disenfranchised and that they have nothing left to lose (again, I don't see any mainstream figures other than Corbyn offering anything different in UK politics at present, hence my interest in seeing him stay). Absolutely, otherwise it's blatantly clear what will happen.

But it doesn't mean that I don't reserve the right to deride those who chose to align themselves with fascists, as well as with those who will rip apart their communities even further.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 02:27 PM
It's just self-defeating

Great phrase I saw a friend use on Facebook was "cutting off your face to spite your face".

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 02:29 PM
the referendum was basically a chance for people to be heard.
the problem was it only offered two options.
neither really expressed what people were angry about.
but they were options nonetheless.
and farrage, boris, gove, etc managed to exploit peoples base fears and instincts, and shoehorned them into what was going.

its basically like a more civilised addition to the london riots.

only problem is that now all that stuff is out in the open.

its a bit like ghostbusters, where all the evil spirits are let out of their vault.
except we have no political bil murray, dan ackroyd or harold ramis to get them back.


Can you explain exactly what you mean by 'bourgeois fantasist' here - I'm interested, as just throwing around vague insults that sound nice is no use to anyone. Especially at the moment.

the ilxor thread is better than this one and less about trying to sound clever lol.
about to make my dissexit.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 02:41 PM
Part of the problem is that people's suspicion of slick, professional Westminster politicians - as understandable and healthy as that suspicion is, in itself - has become so extreme as to become pathological. It's taken as a given that all politicians lie, about everything, all the time, to everyone. At least, all politicians in the slick, smooth, Blair/Cameron mould. In contrast to this, you have Farage and Johnson, all bluff and bluster and pints and fags and infidelity. Many people have been fooled into thinking that this guarantees some sort of integrity, or at least a bit more honesty than is found in the faceless Westminster clones.

And while Corbyn, with his beard and his charity shop suits, might look equally far removed, I think sadly it's probably true that many people outside London and a few other southern cities don't see him as sufficiently distinguished from his Tory opponents. For a lot of working-class people there's not really a meaningful distinction between middle-class and upper-class anyway. They're all just different flavours of posh. So if you're going to put your faith in one bunch of toffs rather than another, you might as well go with the guys who at least appear to share your concerns, or at any rate make a show of listening to them, and look like they might be fun to go to the pub with.

Comparisons to the Trump phenomenon are becoming a cliché at this point, but are warranted nonetheless.

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 02:50 PM
Rubberdingy,

To be honest, I’m totally in the 'cant they just see the error of their ways?!' mind frame.

I’d imagine there are loads of remainers who were ignorant of the issues, but the kind of vehement anti-intellectualism we’re seeing is coming overwhelmingly from the leavers:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck_v2uuWEAAxH3g.jpg

Hopefully the idea that ‘they’re all just as bad as each other’ will come under scrutiny given what’s happened in the past couple of days. Multiple promises are being broken by Leave, while the warnings of ‘project fear’ are coming to fruition.

Woebot
26-06-2016, 06:56 PM
Can you explain exactly what you mean by 'bourgeois fantasist' here - I'm interested

he's a very principled chap but, as is clearly in evidence, he and his party are not in touch with what should be their electorate. the british labour party was always more about methodism than marxism - and corbyn's socialist fantasies are (in the words of andy burnham) more to do with with hampstead than hull.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 07:21 PM
he's a very principled chap but, as is clearly in evidence, he and his party are not in touch with what should be their electorate. the british labour party was always more about methodism than marxism - and corbyn's socialist fantasies are (in the words of andy burnham) more to do with with hampstead than hull.

But then what's to be done? Clearly, overwhelmingly many white working-class people in England and Wales, outside of London and a handful of university cities, are bitterly Euroskeptic, if not outright xenophobic. How can Labour 'connect with' this huge part of the electorate without simply becoming a notionally left-wing version of UKIP?

And how can it attempt to change the way people think about nationality and community without reinforcing the very privileged-Hampstead-intellectuals-lecturing-to-ignorant-lumpenproletariat-from-on-high narrative that's caused this alienation in the first place?

Edit: I realize that if you think Labour is finished as a useful force in British politics then I'm probably asking the wrong person, but hey.

craner
26-06-2016, 07:39 PM
A deep chasm has opened up between Labour and their traditional working class base because of the failures of nationalised industries, the shock de-nationalisation of the Thatcher administrations, and globalisation. The main failure of New Labour was to both bow to this and try to embrace it, remodelling British society on service industries, the financial sector, niche industries like IT, and the progessive mores of the Labour movement. Meanwhile the de-industrialisated areas of the UK rotted and festered. The wave of EU migration exacerbated this, which was the fault of Labour governments (they did not put the same restrictions on EU migration that other wealthy EU states did) and the EU itself (the CAP destroyed Polish agriculture and the rationalisation of core industries badly damaged Polish industry, hence the huge unemployment problem Poland suddenly had).

Labour has never got to grips with this. It was never a question of indulging working class bigotry, which has always existed (nobody should fear pointing out the wave of trashy working class racism that Enoch Powell cultivated and then exploited; it is not patronising middle class preciousness to say it is there). But they have absolutely failed to address the reasons why this has become such a large tendency in working class communities, including many, many people who are not racist, and rightly object to being labelled so because they think EU migration should be controlled in some way (and even *if* they get that confused with rest of the world immigration).

It has got really toxic, and no Labour administration since the Big Bang accessencions has ever attempted to rationalise or even de-toxify it. And they abandoned industry in the UK, because they invested too much in niche industries that could never plug the hole in, say, Ebbw Vale, and because they paid too much heed to EU restrictions and laws that Germany, say, sidestepped or even ignored.

Edit: there was also a perfect storm of central incompetence within the parliamentary parties that led to this result. But, really, there is no question of denying the democratic mandate here. The petition for a second referendum is petulant folly.

rubberdingyrapids
26-06-2016, 07:48 PM
lol. Yeah, thats clearly the most dangerous divide, not the divide between multicultural minorities and racist neo-fascist murdering thugs

yeah, deffo, dont know where anyone got that idea from.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/racist-incidents-feared-to-be-linked-to-brexit-result-reported-in-england-and-wales?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Messages

this is the best article ive seen on immigration. the left have allowed the immigration debate to be run by the right, i.e let it run rampant, and let it become toxic.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/15/honest-debate-immigration

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 07:49 PM
(and even *if* they get that confused with rest of the world immigration).


This is a particularly perverse aspect of the whole thing. Much of UKIP's appeal has been as a sort-of respectable alternative to the BNP and EDL, whose stock in trade is anti-Muslim bigotry. You only have to look at their disgraceful ads from the last few months. And you surely don't have to be a quinoa-munching Islingtonite to realize that Muslims are not, in appreciable numbers, coming to the UK from Poland.

And the fact that it would make good economic sense to limit immigration from outside the EU, and that any government, Labour, Tory or Coalition, could have done this at any time, EU or no EU.

Edit: When you say the UK did not put the same restrictions on EU immigration that other wealthy EU states did, what do you mean exactly? I thought anyone with citizenship of an EU country had the right to study, work and live in any other, and that for a government to prevent that would be illegal?

craner
26-06-2016, 08:03 PM
Most of the EU states refused to allow rights of establishment for seven years; the UK and Ireland didn't. Which is why all the unemployed Poles came to Britain and Ireland. Most came to work, though, and contributed greatly; you rarely see a Pole come to Citizens Advice with a JSA appeal, it's usually an employment issue. But there is no doubt this stoked huge resentment in working class communities, whether rational, or justified, or not.

And the whole insane aspect of this debate is that rest of the world immigration to the UK is controlled; most of the issues with that have been down to the old UKBA and current Home Office incompetence and chaos, as well as punitive decisions. This had nothing to do with the EU and is common to most states on earth that don't have closed borders, aren't tyrannies or involved in wars. Sufi could explain all this better than anybody here.

The confusion of categories, and the inability of politicians who knew what they were talking about (including, despite her best efforts, Jo Cox) to effectively communicate this has been one of the great tragedies of this whole debacle.

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 08:24 PM
In 1980 there were 12 million people unionised and the working age population was 35 million.

Now there are 6 million workers unionised with a working-age population of 40 million.

I presume unions act as a kind of conduit between the 'intelligentsia' component of labour and the working class base. These declining numbers might explain the current discord between these two groups.

craner
26-06-2016, 08:31 PM
Absolutely. I'm the Unison rep at my job, and I can attest to the fact that the union leadership is fundamentally divorced from the workplace. Not mine, obviously, coz I'm a great rep, but in other places. And wider. Sure, they still do the basic stuff, but the main interest of Union leaders is their political importance. This is why you get crap like NUT spending massive amounts of time crafting statements on Palestine and holding teachers to ransome with fear of undefended abuse cases, rather than focusing on improving teachers' wages or protecting restrictions on working days or holidays.

craner
26-06-2016, 08:33 PM
Having said that, the significance of the Miners Strike seems to grow by the year.

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 08:52 PM
I'm still peddling false hope to those who are yearning for it:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/fightback-against-brexit-on-cards-remain-eu-referendum-heseltine

www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/who-will-dare-pull-trigger-article-50-eu

Merkel's rhetoric gives me hope that the EU might offer concessions. Hopefully they would be enough to get remain a democratic mandate. Renegotiation has always been Boris' plan.

droid
26-06-2016, 08:59 PM
Break the unions. Privatise public assets & housing. Deregulate financial and banking sectors. Impose varying forms of austerity. Allow media concentration & shift overton ever rightwards. Tear the post-war social democratic balance to pieces then demonise immigrants & blame foreigners for resulting drop in living standards.

Repeat until fascism or collapse - whichever comes first.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:00 PM
The EU is going to fuck Britain. Sorry to say, but thats just how they operate.

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 09:04 PM
Absolutely. I'm the Unison rep at my job, and I can attest to the fact that the union leadership is fundamentally divorced from the workplace. Not mine, obviously, coz I'm a great rep, but in other places. And wider. Sure, they still do the basic stuff, but the main interest of Union leaders is their political importance. This is why you get crap like NUT spending massive amounts of time crafting statements on Palestine and holding teachers to ransome with fear of undefended abuse cases, rather than focusing on improving teachers' wages or protecting restrictions on working days or holidays.

The RMT's scorched-earth policy with regard to the goodwill of Londoners probably doesn't help either.

craner
26-06-2016, 09:08 PM
It probably will try to, but wouldn't that just legitimise the concerns of those who voted to leave? An arrogant, anti-democratic bloc dedicated to federalist supremacism overriding national sovereignty, emptimosed by Juncker (who should be sacked for his role in this disaster, by the way). Wouldn't this just be tragedy layered upon tragedy?

sadmanbarty
26-06-2016, 09:08 PM
The EU is going to fuck Britain. Sorry to say, but thats just how they operate.

You lot got 2 referendums, why can't we? No fair.

craner
26-06-2016, 09:09 PM
Last post about EU, not RMT.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:09 PM
We didnt want them though - you see how it works?

droid
26-06-2016, 09:11 PM
It probably will try to, but wouldn't that just legitimise the concerns of those who voted to leave? An arrogant, anti-democratic bloc dedicated to federalist supremacism overriding national sovereignty, emptimosed by Juncker (who should be sacked for his role in this disaster, by the way). Wouldn't this just be tragedy layered upon tragedy?

Ideally it'll be a last act of spiteful euro-vengeance which will provide the necessary impetus for reform.

craner
26-06-2016, 09:13 PM
That was about the EU constitution, which was a fabulous overreach that almost everybody objected to; a massive, almost surreptitious lurch towards supranational-ism. The Irish did what they were told the second time, and voted yes.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:14 PM
Do you mean Nice or Lisbon?

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 09:14 PM
Break the unions. Privatise public assets & housing. Deregulate financial and banking sectors. Impose varying forms of austerity. Allow media concentration & shift overton ever rightwards. Tear the post-war social democratic balance to pieces then demonise immigrants & blame foreigners for resulting drop in living standards.


I have to say, droid, this is a bit of an about-face from your usual view on things. Are you feeling alright?

droid
26-06-2016, 09:16 PM
Lisbon - we had a gun to the head. I voted against both times. Nice - voted against first time, then we got the exception to the EU mutual defense pact and voted for.

craner
26-06-2016, 09:18 PM
I hope so. The hardcore Euro-federalists have so far shown no interest in reform. The way they treated Cameron was an indicator: they had no reason to believe they should concede anything significant because they didn't, for one second, believe that the UK would vote to leave. Despite the fact that if a similar referendum happened in most EU countries, especially France, the result would be Out.

I say this with sadness, not glea.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:19 PM
I have to say, droid, this is a bit of an about-face from your usual view on things. Are you feeling alright?

lol. Ive decided ironic accelerationism is where its at.

craner
26-06-2016, 09:19 PM
Lisbon.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:21 PM
Difficult to overstate how incredibly craven Irish politics is wrt Europe - except when they're telling us to stop spending money or change abortion legislation.

droid
26-06-2016, 09:25 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl2G6nZVYAA93a3.jpg:large

http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2016/06/24/repost-brexistential-crisis-what-would-cassandra-say/

Mr. Tea
26-06-2016, 10:11 PM
^Love the idea of an 'immanent' economic crisis. Deflationary panpsychism.

baboon2004
26-06-2016, 10:40 PM
Well, that's cheered me up.

Along with the news of the Spanish election. The mind boggles on that one. Rajoy stronger than ever it seems.

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 09:59 AM
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/746763141535543296

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 10:17 AM
nothing new being said there. everyone knows boris is a mendacious, insincere, blithe scumbag. why wasnt he being shouted down louder when it actually counted?

his column in the telegraph today -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

glad corbyn isnt moving.

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 10:36 AM
Jeremy Corbyn has made his point. Now it’s time for Labour to move on

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/26/jeremy-corbyn-labour-remain-election?CMP=soc_3156

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 10:45 AM
the thing is that, while his stance on the EU is what made him so inept and labour so rudderless during the referendum, seeing as he actually wanted to leave it to begin with (just not for the same reasons as boris and farrage), this is exactly what makes him ideal to help britain exit the eu, if he was to come into power.

whether he can communicate any of that, in a way that matters to the electorate, is another issue.

this is true though -

Yet he shares one flaw: when it’s all about you and your purity, it is hard to be agile, allow your ideas to comingle with those of people who may be less pure, and change with a changing world.

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 10:57 AM
this is exactly what makes him ideal to help britain exit the eu.


She's arguing that Labour should run on the policy that they won't invoke article 50, hence that's why she thinks Corbyn should go

baboon2004
27-06-2016, 11:18 AM
Zoe Williams has been pretty fair on Corbyn all through afaik (unlike some of the wankers who the Guardian employs), and it's a decent article.

"I don’t agree that his time as leader has been a disaster – leave would have won the referendum regardless. It would always have turned the debate into a conversation about immigration and hammered out its racist cant, whoever opposed it." Good. Some common sense.

I personally don't want Corbyn to go because (a) I like him for what he's done for British politics, in shifting the terms of debate, and (b) because a lot of the people who are organising this coup are odious, as well as backstabbers from the word 'go'. But if there is someone equally principled who wants to be leader (which obviously was never Corbyn's dream), then...well, it needs to be considered. But only if that person is clearly not going to lead the Labour Party back down the "I want to lead a Labour Party that’s genuinely as passionate about wealth creation as we are about wealth distribution" route.

Article 50 - I've lost track. Is there anyone in the Tory Party who is actually signalling that they are going to trigger it? Like, ever?

vimothy
27-06-2016, 11:18 AM
Excellent article by David Goodhart, circa 2004, on the struggle to bridge the gap opened by globalisation between Britain's cosmopolitan middle and more traditionally-oriented working classes: http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/too-diverse-david-goodhart-multiculturalism-britain-immigration-globalisation

vimothy
27-06-2016, 11:31 AM
It probably will try to, but wouldn't that just legitimise the concerns of those who voted to leave?

Indeed. It's also worth asking whether, if Britain had voted to remain (say by an equally small margin), the EU would have been prepared to reform an such a way that would satisfy those who would like it to be more respectful of the nation state (and who are not limited to the UK, by any means).

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 11:31 AM
She's arguing that Labour should run on the policy that they won't invoke article 50, hence that's why she thinks Corbyn should go

the idea of not invoking it sounds like a bit of a fantasy.
and would also go against what people voted for, fair and square, regardless of how the campaigns were run.

baboon2004
27-06-2016, 11:39 AM
I think you're likely right, but is it such a far-out fantasy? quite a few referendums have been re-run in the recent past, as far as i can see. I think there would be carnage if that scenario were to play out, but surely it's still possible, if for example a snap election is called?

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 12:29 PM
First signs Brexit will hit jobs

http://www.iod.com/influencing/press-office/press-releases/first-signs-brexit-will-hit-jobs

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 01:19 PM
Polling on voter regret and 2nd referendum

www.comres.co.uk/polls/sunday-mirror-post-referendum-poll/

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 02:53 PM
Zoe Williams has been pretty fair on Corbyn all through afaik (unlike some of the wankers who the Guardian employs), and it's a decent article.


starting to think 80% of guardian journalists are lefty posers.
they like a bit of cool left wing cred.
just not the actual ideologies.
corbyn meanwhile does believe in the ideology, but perhaps too rigidly.

baboon2004
27-06-2016, 03:05 PM
I really think most broadsheet political journalists are awful. They see politics not as a forum in which matters of importance to millions of people can be debated, and lives made better, but an endless sequence of little dramas that they can prove themselves more knowledgeable about than others - they're interested in politics and not the political. it's all about being right, and pretending to be coming from a place of objectivity beyond everyone else (Glenn Greenwald skewered this absolutely in an article I'll have to dig out). I worked with a couple, and while they were by no means awful human beings away from the job, when they were in 'political journalist' mode they were terrible.

baboon2004
27-06-2016, 04:32 PM
watching parliamentlive.tv (wtf am i doing with my life?):

Cameron just laughed at the idea of having a second referendum, and no-one spoke up. That idea is clearly dead. But as for a parliamentary vote on Article 50 - much less clear, again and again Cameron saying that that's a matter for the next PM

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 04:49 PM
again and again Cameron saying that that's a matter for the next PM


smart man. lay the groundwork for everything happening now, then make your exit, just when the heavy lifting begins.

pro-corbyn labour rally tonight to make people remember that corbyn still has support of members, if not the PLP.

http://labourlist.org/2016/06/top-unite-official-to-attend-momentums-keep-corbyn-rally-tonight/

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 06:08 PM
nothing new being said there. everyone knows boris is a mendacious, insincere, blithe scumbag. why wasnt he being shouted down louder when it actually counted?

his column in the telegraph today -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/


"the pound remains higher than it was in 2013 and 2014"

Not quite true. Compared to the Euro, that's the case, but that's because the value of the Euro has also plummeted in the wake of the vote.

Compared to the dollar, the pound is in fact at a 30 year low.

HMGovt
27-06-2016, 08:10 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl-R3lHWkAAcadD.jpg

:eek:

Mr. Tea
27-06-2016, 09:49 PM
I can't see how either calling a second referendum or refusing to invoke Article 50 could be anything other than a gift to Farage. His whole schtick is based around telling people that none of the three mainstream parties listens to them. Refusing to honour the will of the electorate will just prove him right.

Mr. Tea
27-06-2016, 10:04 PM
Yesterday, Cameron appeared nine times on the first page of a Google image search for 'worst uk prime minister ever'.

Today the count is 15.

craner
27-06-2016, 10:06 PM
Totally correct, T. However much we hate this we have to suck it up. Any attempt to undo this decision would be even more distasterous than where we are now. It was a referendum with no rules laid out for percentages, to reverse it might lead to a different result, but it would also exacerbate the divisions and make the hardcore Leavers more determined and possibly violent.

craner
27-06-2016, 10:11 PM
I think that's unfair on Cameron. I'm not a big fan of referendums, but the Scots and EU questions had to be faced at some point. Every government we've had has debated doing it, but couldn't face the possible outcome. You can say it was misguided, but you can't say it wasn't gutsy or even democratic. To argue against that may be, I suppose, sensible, but not a good look for nominal democrats.

Mr. Tea
27-06-2016, 10:24 PM
Thanks to Pete Um for this bit of genius.


http://www.facebook.com/tomonewsus/videos/1307860929242037/

rubberdingyrapids
27-06-2016, 10:36 PM
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/747418086031097856

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cl9cs11WEAUH4ed.jpg:large

could be laying on the doom too thick (i know people say they dont like to be the bringer of bad news, but actually... i think quite a lot of people do), idk.

sadmanbarty
27-06-2016, 10:59 PM
Here are varying explanations of how the UK stays in the EU, some of which I’ve posted before:


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f2aca88-3c51-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fc omment%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz4CofvQscr

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c0669434-3c73-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.html#axzz4CofvQscr

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4ad2a0e6-3a11-11e6-92b0-ed83f2a0360d

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/fightback-against-brexit-on-cards-remain-eu-referendum-heseltine

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/who-will-dare-pull-trigger-article-50-eu

https://waitingfortax.com/2016/06/24/when-i-say-no-i-mean-maybe/

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-petition-second-eu-referendum-how-to-get-new-vote-on-uk-membership-a7102646.html

http://blogs.bath.ac.uk/iprblog/2016/06/27/the-political-economy-of-brexit/

baboon2004
27-06-2016, 11:09 PM
Wow. Some of these Labour MPs plotting the anti-Corbyn coup seem not to realise that they work for the public, and that no-one gives a shit if they're 'angry' about Corbyn. The arrogance is breathtaking.

The Labour Party needs to be consigned to irrelevance if this coup goes ahead. And I think it will be. Mass defection to something new, and damn the scaremongering about it benefiting the Tories. What benefits the Tories is having a fifth column inside the Labour Party.

droid
27-06-2016, 11:42 PM
Did thousand of people really come out on a Monday night during an England match to rally for Corbyn?

Blairites in for kicking when Chilcot comes out next week.

rubberdingyrapids
28-06-2016, 12:02 AM
bye bye triple A rating.

starting to imagine leave voters rubbing their hands with malicious glee.

Sectionfive
28-06-2016, 04:17 AM
The labour Party rebels would be a disgrace if they weren't such an utter joke

Mr. Tea
28-06-2016, 11:41 AM
bye bye triple A rating.


I thought we lost that years ago and had just sunk down another level again?

droid
28-06-2016, 11:54 AM
Financial outlook is bleak indeed. 3tn wiped off shares in biggest 2 day crash in history. Bank of England giving 3bn to banks for 'liquidity', 6bn in the last week (this is a bad sign).

I guess the one positive about a catastrophic spiral into recession rather than a slow descent is that it may give impetus for some positive political movement

rubberdingyrapids
28-06-2016, 12:38 PM
never mind MPs, labour supporters right now seem to have no concept of there being a bigger picture to consider right now. they seem so angry with corybn they cant think of anything else (obv not thinking of those at the rally yesterday).

only saw short clips of corybn in the commons and at the rally, so i dont know what else was addressed, but it just seemed to be about things like unity, racism, and irresponsible political campaigns. all of which i can get behind, but idk if that will win over who they need to (though starting to wonder maybe there just is no winning ukippers over, without actually being ukip).

but i would still rather corbyn than anyone else. england has been veering to the right for the last decade or so, the thought of it swinging even further is not really something i want to see.

craner
28-06-2016, 12:46 PM
I guess the one positive about a catastrophic spiral into recession rather than a slow descent

Could you at least try not to sound like you're enjoying this so much?

droid
28-06-2016, 12:54 PM
This is bad for us too. Where will we go for abortions now?

droid
28-06-2016, 12:59 PM
It would also be nice to think that this disaster will lock all the scum back in their box again for another 30 years, but given the impending hardship on the way I think the opposite will probably happen - especially since the only way to beat the Tories is to offer voters a clear and distinct social democratic alternative - an option seemingly being purged as we speak.

luka
28-06-2016, 01:15 PM
I thought we lost that years ago and had just sunk down another level again?

Different agencies give different ratings it's not science, it's not objective or even apolitical

droid
28-06-2016, 01:51 PM
This is the scum who should be in charge of Labour?

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Screenshot-57.png


On the face of it, the old gentleman has a message on a T shirt which, while we might understand it is calling for the deselection of Blairite MPs, uses intemperate language which can be interpreted as an incitement to violence.

But look again at that photo. The body language of everybody involved is somewhat strange.

That is because the lady on the right is Anna Phillips, full time employee of the Blairite pressure group Progress.

While the gentleman on the left is Lewis Parker, a professional “creative strategist and social media Guru”. Now if you wanted someone to think up a stunt like this and then get millions of people on social media to see it via J K Rowling etc, ask yourself this question. Of all the thousands of professions in this world, which profession is the precise profession whose major task is to invent and set up stunts like this one? Why, a “social media professional”. Is it not an amazing coincidence that one just happened to be going past, as Ms Anna Phillips has explained it, on the way to the pub?

And this only the day after every mainstream media outlet ran as headline news that Jeremy Corbyn was heckled at the Pride rally by a man who happened to see him, who amazingly happened to be another professional PR man, Tom Mauchline, who happens to work for the Blair/Alastair Campbell PR firm Portland Communications.

I really do find myself astonished by the sheer amount of happenstance in life. Of course it cannot possibly be more than happenstance. Otherwise it might be characterised as conspiracy theory.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/06/another-media-setup/

Sectionfive
28-06-2016, 04:50 PM
Where can I get the tshirt tho

Mr. Tea
28-06-2016, 08:29 PM
Different agencies give different ratings it's not science, it's not objective or even apolitical

Yeah thanks for that Luke, but I didn't actually think Peter Higgs sat down and worked them out with a slide rule every week.

This is the event I was referring to, from over 3 years ago, the rating agency in question being Moody's: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21554311

Mr. Tea
28-06-2016, 08:30 PM
(Peter Higgs is a famous scientist, by the way.)

craner
28-06-2016, 09:41 PM
Yeah, but Luke is a famous economist, though.

Droid's Progress "conspiracy" is on its face absurd. Craig Murray as source? Seriously?

droid
28-06-2016, 09:45 PM
Disprove it then. Is he wrong about who those people are?

droid
28-06-2016, 09:50 PM
Its not as if there's been a massive conspiracy against Corbyn from these people or anything. Systematic, contrived and organized attempts to discredit and unseat him. Endless false stories leaked to the media... This latest attempt was a '24 hour blitz' planned weeks ago.

craner
28-06-2016, 09:57 PM
No, but I think he's wrong that they organised a major media conspiracy. That rally was dominated by SWP and other far-left groupsucules, not really very difficult to find those sentiments sloshing around. Certainly not worth organising a major social media campaign to do it, with plants of pension age.

Would you have blanched at wearing that t-shirt? Judging from Twitter and Facebook, many wouldn't.

droid
28-06-2016, 10:03 PM
Here is Anna Phillips:

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/733031264794599424/1isQClZE.jpg

https://twitter.com/annaphillips_

Lewis Parker: https://twitter.com/LewisParkerUK

And here's Tom Mauchline heckling Corbyn http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629976

But of course, the idea that anti-Corbyn right wing Labourite PR and social media gimps may have manufactured an anti-Corbyn PR storm in the middle of an attempted anti-Corbyn coup... well, thats just absurd.

craner
28-06-2016, 10:11 PM
Well, yes it is absurd. They capitalised on a situation for their own political ends, but they didn't create or fabricate it. This is politics, not conspiracy.

craner
28-06-2016, 10:22 PM
And this is Craig Murray, for fuck's sake! I mean, I have a soft spot for his bad behaviour as a diplomat in Uzbekistan, because he was poking Karimov quite correctly. But after he got sacked he went a bit mental, showing up at Galloway rallies in Bethnal Green and Bow, sharing a platform with somebody happy to throw his support behind Assad. Then he went full-force conspiracy nut.

And now he's your source.

droid
28-06-2016, 10:27 PM
Well, yes it is absurd. They capitalised on a situation for their own political ends, but they didn't create or fabricate it. This is politics, not conspiracy.

lol. How credulous are you? In the pride heckling Mauchline did exactly that, they created the story themselves. I heard about this on Sunday and the headline was 'Corbyn heckled at pride demo'. No mention of who or why.

These guys have been fabricating and planting stories about Corbyn since day one. I dont know if they printed that t-shirt themselves but I think its entirely plausible, probable even that they could have, certainly not absurd

droid
28-06-2016, 10:32 PM
And this is Craig Murray, for fuck's sake! I mean, I have a soft spot for his bad behaviour as a diplomat in Uzbekistan, because he was poking Karimov quite correctly. But after he got sacked he went a bit mental, showing up at Galloway rallies in Bethnal Green and Bow, sharing a platform with somebody happy to throw his support behind Assad. Then he went full-force conspiracy nut.

And now he's your source.

I know who Murray is. The idea that bunch of Blairite PR twats might have manufactured a social media scandal to attack Corbyn is more credible than the idea that such a thing could happen is 'absurd'.

Which I guess, makes you more detached from reality than him.

craner
28-06-2016, 10:37 PM
Maybe, maybe not. It's kind of a dead argument: you are willing to believe in conspiracies when it suits you, which I find credulous. I don't believe that conspiracies are a major factor in politics, and you think I'm credulous.

It's almost an argument about faith and religion.

droid
28-06-2016, 10:46 PM
How do you think this works exactly?

"Here listen guys - were facing possibly the biggest crisis since WWII, the breakup of the UK, economic crisis. Now is the time to launch another attack on Corbyn - lets throw everything we can at him, but, what ever you do make sure everything you say or do is 100% honest and honourable - no dirty tricks"

They set this up and just let Rowling and various other useful idiots run with it. It's entirely plausible - not even a conspiracy in the classic sense. They're just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

The fact that youre trying to equate it with 9/11 speaks volumes.

droid
28-06-2016, 10:50 PM
I mean, I doubt this even ranks in the top 50 of anti-Corbyn bullshit. Its only the timing that makes it significant.

Do you have any idea of how politics and media actually work?

luka
28-06-2016, 11:02 PM
(Peter Higgs is a famous scientist, by the way.)

never heard of him, but youve misconstrued my remark in any case. i was just explaining how credit ratings work cos you didnt know. think of them a bit like bookmakers odds. paddy power might not be offering exactly the same price as labrookes

luka
28-06-2016, 11:07 PM
craner incidentally sounds worryingly divorced from reality.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:08 PM
not that that is anything new of course

craner
28-06-2016, 11:11 PM
Oh, come on. A few pages back I explained why I thought the Labour party is divorced from reality. And now I am?

luka
28-06-2016, 11:14 PM
not at all times or on all fronts

craner
28-06-2016, 11:15 PM
In the last few posts we've been squabbling about internal Labour party infighting, which nobody in the country actually gives a shit about anymore. Parliamentary party politics is crumbling. The Union is disintegrating. The economy is tanking. This shit is irrelevant.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:15 PM
but your reaction to droid was kneejerk, and your pavlovian response to the word conspiracy is insipid and pollyannaish.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:20 PM
not sure why you are being so defensive though, it was hardly a serious attack on your character.

droid
28-06-2016, 11:23 PM
Tell me, is there anybody else in the Labour party with huge popular support, who offers a genuine alternative, is committed to retarding the social and economic slide to the right, and if the next election comes soon - actually has a decent chance of winning (according to the polls)?

The UK needs Corbyn, desperately - thats why this is relevant.

One thing I do agree with - the party squabbling is ridiculous. It just shows the venality and stupidity of labour's right. The sensible thing to do is to row back, get firmly behind him, unify and push him through the election with the entire weight of the party, then, when he gets into power and has something to lose and the PLP actually has the ability to get rid of him.. Then you whittle him down and push him overboard.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:24 PM
politicians plot and scheme and backstab. thats like, what politics is made of, like cake is made of flour and eggs and sugar.

droid
28-06-2016, 11:27 PM
Sure, but there's no long game here. Its the frog and the scorpion, except in the middle of a biblical flood.

craner
28-06-2016, 11:36 PM
As for being divorced from reality, I was literally the only person on this forum who predicted a Leave victory.

craner
28-06-2016, 11:41 PM
"Doom-mongering" was how Droid described it.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:50 PM
as a therapist i find your defensiveness intriguing

droid
28-06-2016, 11:51 PM
Maybe you're a savant. Brilliant at predicting referenda results, but childlike and simple in the rest of your dealings with the world.

luka
28-06-2016, 11:51 PM
is being divorced from reality something that worries you a lot?

droid
28-06-2016, 11:51 PM
'Doom-mongering' is not pejorative btw. One of the highest compliments I can give actually.

luka
29-06-2016, 12:04 AM
hes very defensive today isnt he droid? just a group of old friends chewing the fat and suddenly this huge paranoid reaction. i do hope everything is ok with him.

luka
29-06-2016, 12:07 AM
oliver is everything alright with you?

droid
29-06-2016, 12:09 AM
He's under a lot of stress. You all are. The country is disintegrating before your eyes.

Mr. Tea
29-06-2016, 12:02 PM
never heard of him, but youve misconstrued my remark in any case. i was just explaining how credit ratings work cos you didnt know. think of them a bit like bookmakers odds. paddy power might not be offering exactly the same price as labrookes

I'm aware that there are several agencies that produce these ratings and I'm aware that they're not generated by infallible* algorithms, icily detached from the messy subjectivity of economics. I thought the recent headline was that the UK had lost its unanimous AAA rating for the first time, which I see now is not the case.

*in fact the fallibility of them is amply demonstrated by the fact that Greece still had its AAA rating right up until the credit crunch, when it was open secret that the country was fucking brassic

luka
29-06-2016, 12:10 PM
Well you're aware now cos I just told you. Thanks Luke

john eden
29-06-2016, 01:40 PM
Some quick things, sorry it's been a hectic week.

1. I don't regret abstaining in the referendum, even though like many people I predicted the result wrongly.

2. Whilst the Harris article is generally correct to say that poor people voted out, this simply isn't true in inner London boroughs like Hackney, Tower Hamlets etc. If you overlay this with age demographics it all gets quite complicated.

3. Bottom line: I underestimated how angry people are. That anger will only intensify when people realise that a Leave vote won't deliver them what they were promised. Obviously I would prefer it if they didn't channel it in racist ways but that seems naïve now. I do think the potential for a new politics is there and can still be seized from the far right though.

4. Corbyn isn't going anywhere because he actually believes in what he is doing. It's not a pragmatic/career thing as it seems to be for many of his Labour opponents. I don't think a split in the Labour party would be a terrible thing if it lead to a coalition with the SNP / Greens etc. I have no idea if that is realistic though. Probably it isn't.

5. There isn't going to be a second referendum.

6. I don't know what is going to happen economically and I don't think anyone does. (Yes it will be quite bad in the short term). Given that the alternative was the certainty of grinding austerity you can see why people went for the nuclear option of uncertainty really.

droid
29-06-2016, 02:07 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmHq_TWWEAA6nGa.jpg

rubberdingyrapids
29-06-2016, 02:09 PM
http://piercepenniless.tumblr.com/post/146651963407/keepcorbyn-corbynism-in-its-crisis


I don’t think anyone can really suggest Corbyn is doing a brilliant job in parliament. That matters more to politicians and political commentators than it impinges on general popular perception, but that’s not to say it’s unimportant. The apparatus of the party shares a lot of responsibility for how dysfunctional it has become; it was stupid and irresponsible for the right to launch a civil war in the wake of the vote, and now that Corbyn hasn’t blinked it’s difficult to see a way out of it. It will nevertheless be very hard for Team Corbyn to function in parliament, especially if the whips go. Corbynites new to parliamentary process shouldn’t underestimate the impact of that.

It would be wonderful to have a media-friendly Corbynalike who shares (at least) his domestic policy positions, possesses political-process competence, and is perhaps unencumbered by the bunkerish mentality of Milne et al. (I’d also like a unicorn and several million dollars in cash.) Had she not lost her seat to the SNP in 2015, Katy Clark would have been the natural choice here. For now, that’s just not possible. The golpisti make a lot of electability, but that’s not the only calculus at work here, as is obvious in the selection of Angela Eagle as the replacement candidate. Electability arguments proceed on two vectors: one, charisma and telegenic power - Eagle, while perfectly competent, doesn’t possess these. Two, the ability to ‘reach’ voters beyond Labour’s core, or to those disaffected Labour voters dropping off left and right or simply to abstention. It’s unclear anyone in the party can do this.

This conflict is also about whether socialism of Corbyn’s (or indeed, any) kind has a place in mainstream politics and within the Labour Party. That there is no young, competent left candidate is partly an artefact of British political life, and partly because of the left’s atrophy within Labour for decades, but it is hard to imagine that even if there were they would be allowed anywhere near the ballot. If Corbyn, for all his frustrating qualities, is removed from office now, it is hard to see how the party doesn’t take a sharp rightward turn on migration, economic policy and internal democracy. (The assumption is that Corbyn leaving decapitates Momentum, but that is also questionable.)

Two broader issues working here: anxiety about Labour’s fragmenting base and declining vote share in its traditional heartlands; a changing relationship between the party’s elected politicians and its membership. The instinct of many of Labour’s politicians is a kind of neo-corporatism, where government balances the interests of capital, labour and the state, a political strategy which requires a certain insulation from their electoral base and degree of political autonomy. This is why MPs often trot out their Burke when they decide to ignore their constituents (they rarely mention Burke was not long after tossed out of his seat by Bristol’s electors). Disquiet about distance and lack of accountability, a sense that the PLP do not reflect the desires and political direction of the membership, and a departure from the ‘common sense’ of the functioning of representative democracy, means the trust that undergirds that relationship is very heavily eroded. On that, either the base changes or the PLP does.

Many Corbynites talk about deselection/reselection as if it’s an easy option. Not only is it (at the moment) a very complex and obstructed process, it seems obvious to me that at least some deselected MPs would not leave quietly. A number would fight their seat independently or as some SDP mk.ii candidate, either formally or informally a split from Labour. Who wins those seats in that eventuality is an open question, but it will probably be neither. That probably spells the end for the party as it currently exists – and it is, in fact, unclear which way the major unions go in that case.

In the meantime, we are in the midst of an enormous constitutional crisis, heading into a very deep recession and Boris is on his way to the Tory leadership. In the view from 30,000 feet, it is hard not to see the travails of the Labour Party and the deadlock over the implications of the plebiscite as reflecting some of the same problems of the relationship between people, democracy and state.

The naturalistic reading of party rules is that Corbyn is on the ballot in a leadership election unless he resigns. If he is, it still looks like the membership will return him to the leadership. What then?

john eden
29-06-2016, 02:17 PM
Does anyone closer to Labour than me have any insight into the barmy timing of this vote of no confidence?

Is it

a) just to get it out of the way before Blairism is utterly discredited when the Chilcot enquiry is published?

b) because the centrists are so craven that they would rather destroy their own party than have Corbyn at the helm?

droid
29-06-2016, 02:43 PM
Does anyone closer to Labour than me have any insight into the barmy timing of this vote of no confidence?

Is it

a) just to get it out of the way before Blairism is utterly discredited when the Chilcot enquiry is published?

b) because the centrists are so craven that they would rather destroy their own party than have Corbyn at the helm?

+

c) Need time to establish new, unknown tory-lite leader before upcoming election.

d) Tunnel vision - fixated on single aim of removing Corbyn.

e) Short term thinking, idiocy & inexperience.

Mr. Tea
29-06-2016, 02:52 PM
2. Whilst the Harris article is generally correct to say that poor people voted out, this simply isn't true in inner London boroughs like Hackney, Tower Hamlets etc.

Newsflash: London isn't most of the UK or even most of England.

Mr. Tea
29-06-2016, 02:56 PM
Given that the alternative was the certainty of grinding austerity you can see why people went for the nuclear option of uncertainty really.

As a general rule, it's a good idea never to ask "How much worse could things get?", because you might just be about to find out.

Anyway, I think for most Leave voters the economic argument - even the argument against austerity - wasn't the main reason for voting. If it was, Corbyn would be demolishing Cameron (or Boris, or whoever) in approval ratings and would be in a good place to call an early election and become the next PM with a large Labour majority. People voted Leave because of immigration and the chimaera of 'sovereignty'. And, you know, having to buy bananas of a certain approved curvature by the kilo instead of by the pound.

rubberdingyrapids
29-06-2016, 03:09 PM
corbyn was right to remind ppl in the commons that cameron is to blame for most if not all the nihilism in england right now, but maybe corbyn only makes sense as someone to remind the govt of their failings, someone better off in opposition, rather than as a leader. only saying this really as the future for him looks so bleak that any hope of him staying in the job looks pointless.

media types seem grimly excited right now, whether just about the impending apocalypse, or because the scope of coverage is massive, but this is worth a look -
https://twitter.com/b_judah

john eden
29-06-2016, 03:11 PM
Newsflash: London isn't most of the UK or even most of England.

Who is suggesting that it is?

Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool etc voted remain. Which could lead to an interesting discussion on the differences in voting patterns amongst working class people who live in multi-ethnic or mono-ethnic urban communities and the degrees of difference.

baboon2004
29-06-2016, 03:24 PM
Some quick things, sorry it's been a hectic week.

1. I don't regret abstaining in the referendum, even though like many people I predicted the result wrongly.

2. Whilst the Harris article is generally correct to say that poor people voted out, this simply isn't true in inner London boroughs like Hackney, Tower Hamlets etc. If you overlay this with age demographics it all gets quite complicated.

3. Bottom line: I underestimated how angry people are. That anger will only intensify when people realise that a Leave vote won't deliver them what they were promised. Obviously I would prefer it if they didn't channel it in racist ways but that seems naïve now. I do think the potential for a new politics is there and can still be seized from the far right though.

4. Corbyn isn't going anywhere because he actually believes in what he is doing. It's not a pragmatic/career thing as it seems to be for many of his Labour opponents. I don't think a split in the Labour party would be a terrible thing if it lead to a coalition with the SNP / Greens etc. I have no idea if that is realistic though. Probably it isn't.

5. There isn't going to be a second referendum.

6. I don't know what is going to happen economically and I don't think anyone does. (Yes it will be quite bad in the short term). Given that the alternative was the certainty of grinding austerity you can see why people went for the nuclear option of uncertainty really.

agreed with all that, especially points 3 and 4. There's room for hope still. Even if people don't want Corbyn, siding against him with the centrists is unforgivable. There has to be someone saying that austerity is a bad thing, and it sure as hell isn't going to be anyone who replaces him, by the looks of it. As you say, what are the beliefs of Corbyn's opponents - they haven't said anything which suggests they have any at all (obvs there are some exceptions, and some good MPs in amongst the dross)

What option a new left party as in Spain, if the Labour Party explodes? And then the kind of coalition politics you mention, as Podemos have tried

vimothy
29-06-2016, 04:34 PM
Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool etc voted remain.

Manchester (central), Stockport and Trafford voted to stay, everywhere else in Manchester voted leave.

The numbers: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617781

Mr. Tea
29-06-2016, 04:57 PM
Who is suggesting that it is?

Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool etc voted remain. Which could lead to an interesting discussion on the differences in voting patterns amongst working class people who live in multi-ethnic or mono-ethnic urban communities and the degrees of difference.

OK, fine. It's just that the existence of large, ethnically mixed cities where lots of working-class people (of all ethnicities) who voted Remain does not negate the general fact that people who voted Remain are on average in higher socioeconomic groups - to be blunt, are richer - than Leave voters.

Also, let's not forget that non-white people can vote. Taking Tower Hamlets as an example: given that the Leave campaign focussed so heavily on stoking up xenophobic sentiment, is it any wonder there was an overall Remain vote in areas where most people aren't white British?

baboon2004
29-06-2016, 06:50 PM
OK, fine. It's just that the existence of large, ethnically mixed cities where lots of working-class people (of all ethnicities) who voted Remain does not negate the general fact that people who voted Remain are on average in higher socioeconomic groups - and, to be blunt, are richer - than Leave voters.


I think it's important to be blunt on this, in order not to obscure the fact that for many people, the whole thing had nothing to do with the benefits/drawbacks of the EU. Racism/xenophobia (and wanting to avoid an increase in these) and austerity were surely the guiding issues, themselves interdependent of course. And for most non-white and white perceived-'foreign' working class people (and those in solidarity with them), the very obviously legitimate fear of increased racism and far right activity in the event of Brexit would outweigh a vote against austerity I imagine.

baboon2004
29-06-2016, 07:01 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-michael-gove-conservative-leadership-election-candidates-david-cameron-brexit-sarah-a7109771.html this is an unfortunate mistake, it's almost like dacre and murdoch are running the country

Sectionfive
29-06-2016, 07:57 PM
b) because the centrists are so craven that they would rather destroy their own party than have Corbyn at the helm?


The completely OTT reaction since the leadership election shows how they and other interested parties go full erratic at the very first sign of power and long held certainty slipping so it's entirely possible but I think there is a lot more to it than scorched earth. Some key paragraphs in this (https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/rory-scothorne/who%E2%80%99s-afraid-of-jeremy-corbyn) from last August are a good guide to where some of their thinking is rooted but their are all sorts of reasons, timeless and new.

However, given this generation know nothing other than dismantling the party and parliamentary politics more broadly as a force for change and genuine conflict I don't see why they wouldn't be content to scuttle the whole thing, at least in its current form. Some sort of split if not several is almost inevitable because Labour are not immune to the sort of fragmentation we are seeing in right across politics. It just so happens Corybn's election and first-past-the-post rightly or wrongly have prolonged the perception of Labour as a still useful of not the only vehicle when similar parties elsewhere are more dramatically dying in a ditch of their own making.

With this recent heave against the leadership I think they were eager to insure he wasn't in a position to capitalise on the tory civil war shit show that either result was likely to produce. They couldn't afford to leave that uncertainty open to chance because there is a tension between believing his politics cannot win an election and unspoken fear that he cannot be written off. When you've completely swallowed the road of Murdoch appeasement and all the rest as the correct and only way of doing things even the slimmest chance that he might gain edge while conservatives murder each other must be smothered.

It all seems like shadow boxing to me though. If they didn't have Corbyn to project all this stuff onto they would have to deal with far greater questions about party decline and you could even say there is underlining acceptance that the writing is on the wall for the Labour Party in any of the forms we've known it. It seems very much the case elsewhere so all the jockeying is just a matter of being in the most advantageous position to benefit from the ashes.

Leo
29-06-2016, 10:13 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmI3oVGWgAEP5iR.jpg

baboon2004
30-06-2016, 12:28 AM
Stephen Crabb's amazing explanation for why his voting against gay marriage doesn't make him a massive homophobe:

' “I want to deal with that head-on,” he said at his launch. “We had a debate in the last parliament, I voted the way I did, but I’m very happy with the outcome. That issue is now settled.” '

and:

https://twitter.com/MrKenShabby/status/748084994204110848

Mr. Tea
30-06-2016, 12:35 AM
Is the assumption that any Labour MP who doesn't have confidence in Corbyn must necessarily be a "Blairite" entirely fair? I mean, isn't it at least theoretically possible that some of them come from a similar place to him ideologically but just don't think he's the man for the job?

And if that much of the PLP really doesn't want him and it's an ideological issue for all or most of them, it's clear to me that what the country desperately needs is a new left-wing party.

baboon2004
30-06-2016, 01:13 AM
Absolutely, some of them definitely aren't Blairites. But they're making a ludicrously bad decision, by aligning themselves with people who definitely are Blairites, and who definitely did not take against Corbyn based on any evidence from his actual leadership. Those people are still smarting from defeat last autumn; they don't want a Labour Party opposing austerity and the forces that created it, because t do so would make the party 'unelectable', and they value power above any set of principles (power to do what? to be generally unprincipled on a wider scale). Which is about as desperately unambitious a position as could be, and enormously cynical about voters in the UK (OK, I know, I know...but I do think many people would vote for a clear anti-austerity platform). Why would a left-wingish Labour MP make a decision that will allow the Eagles or Benns of the party to step into the leadership?

I think this is a good article on this general area from last August:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/rory-scothorne/who%E2%80%99s-afraid-of-jeremy-corbyn

New left-wing party if Corbyn loses the new leadership election, yep. But what if he wins?

john eden
30-06-2016, 08:35 AM
If he wins the plan seems to be to mount a legal challenge to claim ownership of the name "The Labour Party":

https://www.savinglabour.com

sadmanbarty
30-06-2016, 10:30 AM
Statement from members of Labour’s Economic Advisory Committee

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/statement-from-members-of-labours.html

Corpsey
30-06-2016, 10:58 AM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-michael-gove-conservative-leadership-election-candidates-david-cameron-brexit-sarah-a7109771.html this is an unfortunate mistake, it's almost like dacre and murdoch are running the country

''Sarah Vine, who is married to Mr Gove, appears to have accidentally sent the message intended for her husband to a third party.'' LOL

These power struggles expose the fact that The Thick of It isn't even really a comedy, at least in premise.

Mr. Tea
30-06-2016, 12:00 PM
If he wins the plan seems to be to mount a legal challenge to claim ownership of the name "The Labour Party":

https://www.savinglabour.com

A bit like how Guns'n'Roses these days is Axl Rose plus some session musicians because he owns the rights to the name?

Corpsey
30-06-2016, 12:03 PM
BoJo dropped out.

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/article/people-are-really-really-hoping-this-theory-about-david-cameron-and-brexit-is-true--bJhqBql0VZ

Maybe this theory has some basis in reality?

droid
30-06-2016, 12:05 PM
Or/plus - Murdoch has backed Gove, and Johnson hasn't got the guts to go against that.

sufi
30-06-2016, 12:16 PM
''Sarah Vine, who is married to Mr Gove, appears to have accidentally sent the message intended for her husband to a third party.'' LOL

These power struggles expose the fact that The Thick of It isn't even really a comedy, at least in premise.
"accidentally"

does anyone know who was that 3rd party?

luka
30-06-2016, 01:52 PM
martin

You have to remember that we won the war, unlike those French poofs who surrendered the moment the Jerries came into site. We smoke, eat and drink too much because we're hard bastards. The French think they're sophisticated by looking down their conks at our cuisine, but it's not our fault - while they were lazing around, eating cheese that stinks of athlete's foot and inventing new sexual perversions, we were spending all our dosh on weapons, to make sure the Third Reich got the hiding it bloody deserved. We didn't have time to make 'croque monsieurs', in any case, chops and boiled cabbage are good enough for any man. Also, we know we're shit at everything, so we don't have to try that hard or live up to expectations. Unlike your average fucking Italian, who throws a tantrum like a spoilt little pageant queen if you insult his pesto-guzzling old bat of a mum. Our transvestites are much better as well, they beat up straights in rugby shirts, the German ones just listen to shit microhouse and get upset if they chip a fake nail.

The Finns are pretty cool, they're the most practical, placid people when they're sober. Get a few bottles of vodka down them and they morph into viking beserkers, smashing tables to matchwood, headbutting their spouses and setting fire to their cars 'for a laugh'. The next day, all covered in blood and bruises and stinking of puke, they just have a shower and shave and go back to the office.

classic martin quote

luka
30-06-2016, 01:54 PM
i think i met him once he was goading me to get on the unattended drum kit left on the stage at the palm tree in mile end a pub i had been kicked out of in semi-disgrace about a fortnight earlier, or maybe that was someone else. he looked like tom watson.

droid
30-06-2016, 02:02 PM
Martin is a 7ft adonis, usually shirtless with a cape made from the sickle and hammer.

luka
30-06-2016, 02:06 PM
must have been someone else then

droid
30-06-2016, 03:03 PM
So not content with recklessly endangering the Northern Ireland peace process with an ill-thought out referendum, the Tory Front runner is now a man who called the good friday agreement a 'moral stain' and an 'indelible mark' against the British government.

Looks like we may be back to the 70's in more ways than one.

trza
30-06-2016, 03:11 PM
A bit like how Guns'n'Roses these days is Axl Rose plus some session musicians because he owns the rights to the name?
someone needs to brush up on their GnR infighting and drama, THE BAND IS BACK TOGETHER, Slash and Axl are on the same stage this summer. It shows how people can put their differences behind them and get together to make all the eighties dinosaur rock fans happy.

droid
30-06-2016, 03:12 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnXoQeGnT4Q

droid
30-06-2016, 03:14 PM
Never really paid attention to Gove before now, overshadowed as he was by the pigfucker and that freak Osbourne.

He's like a whole new genre of despicable Tory weirdness.

sadmanbarty
30-06-2016, 03:31 PM
Economists give there opinions on whether we'll have a technical recession. They're pretty much unanimous in saying it's bad news for growth, jobs, public spending, etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/get-ready-for-a-u-k-recession-lower-interest-rates-and-more-qe

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/jay-elwes/is-britain-heading-for-recession-eu-referendum-brexit

jenks
30-06-2016, 03:38 PM
Never really paid attention to Gove before now, overshadowed as he was by the pigfucker and that freak Osbourne.

He's like a whole new genre of despicable Tory weirdness.

Those of us who had the 'pleasure' of his tenure over in the Education dept are fully aware of his brand of 'despicable Tory weirdness' and live with its consequences daily...

Corpsey
30-06-2016, 03:46 PM
Such a shame that we can't have people in charge who are actually qualified to run what they're put in charge of.

We test people for all sorts of job competencies, why not MPs too? Including some sort of polygraph-overseen ethics examination.

Mr. Tea
30-06-2016, 04:23 PM
someone needs to brush up on their GnR infighting and drama, THE BAND IS BACK TOGETHER, Slash and Axl are on the same stage this summer. It shows how people can put their differences behind them and get together to make all the eighties dinosaur rock fans happy.

I stand corrected, thanks for that.

craner
30-06-2016, 04:35 PM
the palm tree in mile end a pub i had been kicked out of in semi-disgrace about a fortnight earlier

How weird - I was literally just telling Ashe about that incident a couple of hours ago, before reading this thread.

luka
30-06-2016, 04:51 PM
I'm a synchronicity vector a powerful disruption wave in the cosmos

craner
30-06-2016, 04:59 PM
Weird vibes.

droid
30-06-2016, 05:00 PM
2 dimensional, transmitter of disease or parasites... definitely a vector.

Mr. Tea
30-06-2016, 06:31 PM
2 dimensional, transmitter of disease or parasites... definitely a vector.

Luke mate, better get yourself checked into the burns unit, pronto!

Sectionfive
01-07-2016, 01:42 AM
https://scontent-amt2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/13532859_10154342976937915_8504367612689681786_n.j pg?efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&oh=718966f8b78e6b037a27a92b953ffa63&oe=57FE82A5

droid
01-07-2016, 09:48 AM
The fucking Guardian.

sadmanbarty
01-07-2016, 10:08 AM
Economists give there opinions on whether we'll have a technical recession. They're pretty much unanimous in saying it's bad news for growth, jobs, public spending, etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/get-ready-for-a-u-k-recession-lower-interest-rates-and-more-qe

http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/jay-elwes/is-britain-heading-for-recession-eu-referendum-brexit

Krugman doesn't think so. "Economists have very good reasons to believe that Brexit will do bad things in the long run, but are strongly tempted to sex up their arguments by making very dubious claims about the short run."

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/?smid=tw-nytimeskrugman&smtyp=cur&_r=0

vimothy
01-07-2016, 10:52 AM
A Guardian Journalist Visited the Rest of the Country. You Won't Believe What He Saw: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/liverpool-london-brexit-leave-eu-referendum

(Actually a decent article.)

sadmanbarty
01-07-2016, 01:51 PM
Folks, we ay have just got ourselves a new democratic mandate.

"It also suggested if there was a second referendum now Remain would win comfortably.

If there was a second referendum now, Remain would gain 45 per cent backing, compared to 40 per cent for Out, with 15 per cent “don’t knows” or “prefer not to say”.

Thirteen per cent of Leavers regret their decision to some degree, with around a third of them saying they would change the way they voted.

While nearly two thirds believe they were misled by the Leave campaign’s flagship pledge to give the NHS £350 million which it claimed was being sent a week to Brussels.

The poll also found that five per cent of people who voted Leave on June 23 would now do the opposite, while two per cent who backed In would switch sides.

Looking at the 28 per cent of the country who did not vote, more than four in ten have
regrets.
Among this group, 52 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds said they wished they had voted, as did more than six out of ten 34 to 44-year-olds.

The majority of those who did not vote but wished they had say they would vote Remain if there was a second referendum."

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-poll-most-brits-want-general-election-to-be-called-this-year-a3285706.html

Mr. Tea
01-07-2016, 03:22 PM
two per cent who backed In would switch sides.


Two percent of people are certifiably batfuck insane.

vimothy
01-07-2016, 08:31 PM
Folks, we ay have just got ourselves a new democratic mandate.

An opinion poll does not equate to a democratic mandate.

luka
01-07-2016, 08:32 PM
Obvious, but also true. How did vim vote?

vimothy
01-07-2016, 08:36 PM
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

-- "The Solution", Brecht (1953)

vimothy
01-07-2016, 08:38 PM
I didn't, actually. I'm afraid I'm one of those awful fence-sitters, who couldn't decide which outcome was worse.

vimothy
01-07-2016, 08:58 PM
("To paraphrase Stalin, they are both worse.")

sadmanbarty
01-07-2016, 09:25 PM
An opinion poll does not equate to a democratic mandate.

Of course it doesn't, but a shift in public opinion offers opportunities for a new mandate.

If parliament reflects the wishes of the public (as it's supposed to), then that may actually mean going against the referendum results if the public changes its mind.

Just noticed I left out the ‘m’ in ‘may have just…’, which might explain the confusion.

sadmanbarty
01-07-2016, 09:29 PM
Not sure if that poem was in response to what I said. If it was, I would like to point out that I was saying that the government should respond to the wishes of the public. That’s the complete opposite attitude to the one the poem was satirising.

vimothy
01-07-2016, 09:30 PM
The democratic mandate is provided by the referendum, which you want to disregard - making the whole notion of "democratic mandate" meaningless.

sadmanbarty
01-07-2016, 09:42 PM
The democratic mandate is provided by the referendum, which you want to disregard - making the whole notion of "democratic mandate" meaningless.

Don't you think the public have the right to change their minds? If they do, do you not think that policy should reflect that?

I feel that if the majority of the public turn out to be in favour of remaining before article 50 is invoked, then it shouldn't be invoked. That's not anti-democratic.

On he other had if they majority of the public are still in favour of leaving, then I feel we should leave.

droid
01-07-2016, 09:59 PM
Unfortunately we dont live in anarchy. Democracy in Western societies is entirely at the mercy of opportunity.

vimothy
01-07-2016, 10:22 PM
Evidently.

vimothy
02-07-2016, 01:47 PM
When I was invited on to the BBC TV news channel on Friday afternoon, it quickly became clear that... the Corbyn matter, was what they really wanted to talk about . I boggled. Here we were, facing a huge constitutional, diplomatic and political crisis....

The Prime Minister had resigned that morning. His Party was exposed as utterly divided, cloven from the nave to the chaps by discord. It was and is seriously proposing to leave the country to drift till October before picking a new leader..

A majority of the electorate, in a high turnout had specifically endorse a policy rejected and indeed sneered at for decades by both major political parties, plus the BBC and most of the media, the civil service and the whole establishment. They had done so after a fair fight, in which the other side had flung millions of pounds and a great deal of frightening propaganda at them.

(...)

And in the midst of all this the BBC wanted to talk about Jeremy Corbyn...

This odd, faintly unhinged preoccupation is also noticeable among the battalion of establishment political commentators, who also seem to have little else to talk about. I say it is unhinged because it is a failure of proportion...

The reason for this obsession is that one of the main functions of modern political journalism is to act as a sort of thought police. Anyone who strays from the 'centre' (an apparently objective term for a subjective opinion) is mocked, belittled, subjected to scandal and exposure, pictured looking foolish or eating messily, accused of ‘gaffes’ and ceaselessly the subject of stories about how he or she is being plotted against and is weak.

This supposed ‘centre’ can loosely be described as Blairism...

Mr Corbyn offends against this because he still openly defines himself as a socialist... He is also... a foolish throwback, as he has not cured himself of the 19th century socialist interest in state ownership and trade union power. And he has the usual embarrassing baggage of sympathies with various unappealing Latin American leftists. Deep down, this package makes him hugely suspicious of the Blairites, because he can see that supranational bodies such as the EU will favour the big corporations he despises against the attempts of left-wing governments (such as he dreams of heading), and that the destruction of national sovereignty means the extinction of his dreams. Only a proud and independent Britain could ever implement his desired programme. So... he is like a paraded hostage, frantically signalling to those who watch him on TV, through demeanour and body language, that the things that come out of his mouth about the EU are not in fact his real sentiments.

The Blairites return the favour. They can’t stand him. But as we know they can’t easily get rid of him either, and if they do, they can't replace him with one of their own. Mr Corbyn doesn’t owe his election to them but to the Party members, who are also Europhiles but love Mr Corbyn’s old-fashioned positions so much, and reasonably enjoy his principled and unflinching political style... that they don’t care.

The mystery is this - what are the Blairites still doing in Jeremy Corbyn’s party anyway? They were elected on the wrong ticket. They have fulfilled the great 1990s dream of forcing the Tories to agree with them, and have belatedly discovered that the same Tories are better than they are at raising money, and at winning elections....

The whole lot of them, no more than professional career politicians, would be much happier in the Cameron Tory Party....

So, in yet another illustration of Kissinger’s Law, that the fighting is bitterest where the stakes are smallest, they occupy their long-honed political skills in undermining their own leader. This is a task in which they can probably never succeed, but they have come to enjoy it in the absence of any other purposeful activity...

I’d got used to this Corbyn-obsessive rubbish, but for this to be the dominant strand of political coverage, three days after the momentous vote, is simply absurd.

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/06/no-we-have-not-escaped-from-the-eu-and-we-may-not-ever-do-so-.html

luka
02-07-2016, 02:02 PM
The reason for this obsession is that one of the main functions of modern political journalism is to act as a sort of thought police. Anyone who strays from the 'centre' (an apparently objective term for a subjective opinion) is mocked, belittled, subjected to scandal and exposure, pictured looking foolish or eating messily, accused of ‘gaffes’ and ceaselessly the subject of stories about how he or she is being plotted against and is weak.

has your hero been reading chomsky?

luka
02-07-2016, 02:06 PM
not to say i disagree with him. its stating the obvious and its all been said before 10,000 times on 10,000 facebook pages and 10,000 dinner parties, but no less true for all that

sadmanbarty
02-07-2016, 03:02 PM
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/06/no-we-have-not-escaped-from-the-eu-and-we-may-not-ever-do-so-.html

“A majority of the electorate, in a high turnout had specifically endorse a policy rejected and indeed sneered at for decades by… the BBC and most of the media”

This is an analysis of print media’s editorial positions on the referendum and Europe. It would suggests Hitchen’s claim is wrong:

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-analysis-shows-extent-of-press-bias-towards-brexit-61106

I’d also add that it seems Leave greatly benefited from the BBC’s false equivalence. For example pro- remain and pro- leave economists would be featured in roughly equal number despite an overwhelming consensus amongst economists. Similarly, the conflicting positions of the RMT and TUC were portrayed as equivalent. The TUC has about 6 million members, whereas the RMT has about 80,000 (roughly 1.3%).

“They had done so after a fair fight, in which the other side had flung millions of pounds and a great deal of frightening propaganda at them.”

I’m not going to defend Remain’s false claims (the “emergency budget” being an example). However what was characterised as “Project Fear”, was actually expert opinion based on robust economic models (this is trade theory, so the “they didn’t predict the financial crisis” argument doesn’t wash).

Moreover Leave lied a great deal more than remain and evoked fear with talk of “breaking points” and Turkish accession.

Sectionfive
02-07-2016, 07:43 PM
We have referendums here fairly regularly and the notion of 'balance' as adhered to on the public broadcaster has reached absurd levels. Months ahead of the vote on marriage last year it was decided you couldn't have anyone from the LGBT community on air talking about their life or book or whatever without having some fringe catholic on to offer a counter view. From current affairs to soft focus human interest stuff, the broadcaster was in the end literally going around with a stopwatch to ensure they weren't caught out. The same is still going on at the moment over abortion even though no referendum has been called and we're are likely two to three years away from any vote or formal campaign.

There is a tiny group of very commented conservative activists who monitor everything and have become adept at getting vexatious but ultimately successful complaints through the Broadcasting Authority. The public broadcaster in turn has taken their own ultra-cautious interpretation of these rulings and things are now at preposterous levels. Essentially, at best 10% of the electorate are now treated as a one side of a debate and every discussion of certain hot issues instantly becomes 'a debate'. Even by Irish referendum standards, there was absolutely scurrilous commentary broadcast ahead of the vote last May. Vile, inflammatory, utterly baseless homophobia was legitimised on the airwaves as a credible talking point.

In this scenario the audience comes away none the wiser about any issue and people are even reluctant to go on air across the table from people who can say any old bullshit. We've seen a repeat of that now in Britain were the leave sides claims melted away the minute they won but tbh, we will be a long time building a full and definite picture of the decades leading to the Brexit vote. A frightening amount of people are utter uninformed about the world they live in regardless of the bonkers stuff we saw during the campaign.

sadmanbarty
03-07-2016, 11:34 AM
Seems Jonathan Portes' Condocert Paradox* is playing out as expected:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmYTy_2WcAA4yw2.jpg:large

The plurality of the public would rather have access to the single market than control of EU immigration. As would the vast majority of MP's.

One third (33%) of Leave voters said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”

lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

How many of them would have not voted or even voted for Remain, had the options been remaining or a Norway-style deal that allows free movement of people? Would it have been enough for Remain to win?

* http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/condorcet-paradox-work-rock-paper-scissors-eu-referendum#.V3joUpMrJfR

Mr. Tea
03-07-2016, 12:29 PM
This is an analysis of print media’s editorial positions on the referendum and Europe. It would suggests Hitchen’s claim is wrong.


A cursory glance at the headlines of five of the UK's eight major daily papers over the last couple of decades would have told you the same thing. And even the Guardian, a broadly Europhile paper, is by no means consistently pro-EU in the same way that, say, the Sun is consistently anti-EU.


From current affairs to soft focus human interest stuff, the broadcaster was in the end literally going around with a stopwatch to ensure they weren't caught out. The same is still going on at the moment over abortion even though no referendum has been called and we're are likely two to three years away from any vote or formal campaign.

Sounds like you guys have a particularly bad case but I think this is an increasingly universal phenomenon. In America it's customary for media sources to give the idea that "some" scientists think human activity is contributing to climate change while "some" scientists don't, despite the fact that the former "some" is well over 90% (a commonly quoted figure is 97%) and the latter "some" is a tiny minority, many of whom have turned out to have close financial ties to the petrochem industry.

sadmanbarty
03-07-2016, 01:12 PM
A one paragraph explanation of the referendum and the Condocert Paradox

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmONppSWMAAdjGZ.jpg:large

sadmanbarty
03-07-2016, 09:10 PM
Krugman doesn't think so. "Economists have very good reasons to believe that Brexit will do bad things in the long run, but are strongly tempted to sex up their arguments by making very dubious claims about the short run."

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/30/the-macroeconomics-of-brexit-motivated-reasoning/?smid=tw-nytimeskrugman&smtyp=cur&_r=0

He responds to some retorts and expands a bit more here:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/07/02/more-on-the-short-run-macroeconomics-of-brexit/

sadmanbarty
03-07-2016, 09:21 PM
Jonathan Portes honestly attempts to reconcile access to the single market and limiting EU immigration:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/eea-minus-option-amending-not-ending-free-movement#.V3lvMpMrJfQ

There's still the fundamental question of whether voters would choose this over remaining in the EU if those were the options. I can't see it myself, bearing in mind this:

"two-thirds (68%) saying that they would not being happy to pay any of their own personal annual income to tighten the control Britain has over immigration and reduce the number of EU migrants entering the UK."

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/sun-eu-referendum-poll-june-2016/

luka
04-07-2016, 03:08 PM
Nobody from either in or out camp is even talking about the biggest buildup of military on Russian borers since Ger many attacked in WW2. Everybody knows that US was behind Ukraine violent coup, all that Crimea did was to exercise it's right to self determination. Ne never had any problems with Falkland Islands referendum, Scottish and now the UK referendum. Kosovo separated from Serbia without refrendum, no problem. Crimea on the other hand... Before voting I never even considered financial implication. I don't care how much it is going g cost me but the EU subservience to the US imperialism must stop. EU is NATO's political wi g. This madness must come to an end. Now we have leaked emails from retired NATO general lying through his teeth to drag Russia into a war! This is definition of insanity! EU deliberately stabbed it's own electorate and business in the back when it introduced sanctions against st Russia. Now they are talking about cenralized taxation system and military. They have lost the plot. They are completely out of control. Good riddance.

droid
05-07-2016, 10:43 AM
Anarcho-syndicalism almost trending!

sadmanbarty
05-07-2016, 11:42 AM
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/06/no-we-have-not-escaped-from-the-eu-and-we-may-not-ever-do-so-.html

“A majority of the electorate, in a high turnout had specifically endorse a policy rejected and indeed sneered at for decades by… the BBC”

This would suggest that is not true:

some interviewers were quite well-informed, but still held back from correcting Leavers when they made untrue statements. As an institution, the BBC was terrified of being thought of as pro-EU – partly because of the sheer volume of complaints it receives from hard-line Outers. So the BBC bent over backwards not to behave in ways that could be construed as biased against Leave. One of the BBC’s most senior journalists confessed to me, a few days before the referendum: “If we give a Leaver a hard time, we know that the Mail or the Sun may pick on us and that that is bad for our careers. But if we are tough on Remainers it might upset the Guardian and that doesn’t matter at all. This affects the way some colleagues handle interviews.”

http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/how-leave-outgunned-remain-battle-five-ms

sadmanbarty
05-07-2016, 01:05 PM
Luka, some of thoughts/ questions about your post:

Russian border build up

Will Britain leaving the EU, or even the collapse of the EU, end NATO’s eastward expansion?

The north European plane has little in the way of natural boundaries, so it is very easy to move ground troops along it, so countries feel they need buffers. This ping pong of ground troops has been going on for hundreds of years, it is the result of geography rather than the current political situation.

If anything, the EU neutralises Germany militarily, meaning that it won’t repeat its actions during the world wars.

Crimea

Would you agree that a just solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland required that the interests of both the unionists and republicans were addressed? Does the same principle apply to Crimea with regards to the various ethnic groups?


Subservience to the US

Remember both france and Germany (2 of the 3 most influential EU members) opposed the Iraq war.

EU countries were hugely important in negotiating with Iran, instead of going to war.

Will Britain leaving the EU, or even the collapse of the EU, end this subservience?

Doesn’t a stronger EU mean that it has more leverage to differ from US policy (such as labeling goods from Israeli settlements)?

Centralised army

This is not going to happen.

luka
05-07-2016, 01:19 PM
Luka, some of thoughts/ questions about your post:

Russian border build up

Will Britain leaving the EU, or even the collapse of the EU, end NATO’s eastward expansion?

The north European plane has little in the way of natural boundaries, so it is very easy to move ground troops along it, so countries feel they need buffers. This ping pong of ground troops has been going on for hundreds of years, it is the result of geography rather than the current political situation.

If anything, the EU neutralises Germany militarily, meaning that it won’t repeat its actions during the world wars.

Crimea

Would you agree that a just solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland required that the interests of both the unionists and republicans were addressed? Does the same principle apply to Crimea with regards to the various ethnic groups?


Subservience to the US

Remember both france and Germany (2 of the 3 most influential EU members) opposed the Iraq war.

EU countries were hugely important in negotiating with Iran, instead of going to war.

Will Britain leaving the EU, or even the collapse of the EU, end this subservience?

Doesn’t a stronger EU mean that it has more leverage to differ from US policy (such as labeling goods from Israeli settlements)?

Centralised army

This is not going to happen.

It was just a cut and paste job from the Guardian comments.

sadmanbarty
05-07-2016, 01:32 PM
It was just a cut and paste job from the Guardian comments.

I guess that makes me a silly goose then.

Corpsey
05-07-2016, 01:38 PM
Had a listen to this (in podcast form) yesterday and quite enjoyed it. Sets out the long and venerable history of Brits thinking that the UK is a great power and the French smell of BO, etc.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/brexit-euroscepticism-history

Mr. Tea
05-07-2016, 05:23 PM
I guess that makes me a silly goose then.

I was gonna say, you don't know luka that well yet, do you?

I thought it was fairly obvious he was channeling Seumas Pilger, but then I've been here a fair while. :cool:

droid
07-07-2016, 10:19 AM
The attempted coup is finished, and...


Labour membership is on course to hit 600,000, a half-century peak, after a second successive day in which more than 100,000 people have applied to become party members.


http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-membership-hit-600000

Its almost as if, in Corbyn, people see a chance to break from the right wing war mongering monster Labour became under Blair.

Corpsey
07-07-2016, 10:26 AM
I'm a supporter of Corbyn, but does this boost in membership prove that he is electable by the country at large, or that those who DO like him REALLY like him? I would be gutted to think that somebody with genuine principles ISN'T electable in this country.

Are polls like this just establishment fear mongering? http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14581225.Dumping_Jeremy_Corbyn_would_give_Labour_s _popularity_12_point_boost__according_to_new_poll/

(About to be informed that the Scottish Herald is about as credible as The Star)

droid
07-07-2016, 10:32 AM
The headline doesn't match the findings for one thing, but TBH, the British media has been so monolithically opposed and distorted in their coverage of Corbyn I find it hard to believe anything I read - the guardian's Islamic state 'misquote' least week being the most egregious recent example

vimothy
07-07-2016, 10:41 AM
[The Rise of the Meritocracy] was a satire meant to be a warning (which needless to say has not been heeded) against what might happen to Britain...

Underpinning my argument was a non-controversial historical analysis of what had been happening to society for more than a century before 1958, and most emphatically since the 1870s, when schooling was made compulsory and competitive entry to the civil service became the rule.

Until that time status was generally ascribed by birth. But irrespective of people's birth, status has gradually become more achievable.

It is good sense to appoint individual people to jobs on their merit. It is the opposite when those who are judged to have merit of a particular kind harden into a new social class without room in it for others.

Ability of a conventional kind, which used to be distributed between the classes more or less at random, has become much more highly concentrated by the engine of education.

A social revolution has been accomplished by harnessing schools and universities to the task of sieving people according to education's narrow band of values.

With an amazing battery of certificates and degrees at its disposal, education has put its seal of approval on a minority, and its seal of disapproval on the many who fail to shine from the time they are relegated to the bottom streams at the age of seven or before.

The new class has the means at hand, and largely under its control, by which it reproduces itself.

The more controversial prediction and the warning followed from the historical analysis. I expected that the poor and the disadvantaged would be done down, and in fact they have been. If branded at school they are more vulnerable for later unemployment.

They can easily become demoralised by being looked down on so woundingly by people who have done well for themselves.

It is hard indeed in a society that makes so much of merit to be judged as having none. No underclass has ever been left as morally naked as that.

They have been deprived by educational selection of many of those who would have been their natural leaders, the able spokesmen and spokeswomen from the working class who continued to identify with the class from which they came.

(...)

With the coming of the meritocracy, the now leaderless masses were partially disfranchised; as time has gone by, more and more of them have been disengaged, and disaffected to the extent of not even bothering to vote. They no longer have their own people to represent them.

To make the point it is worth comparing the Attlee and Blair cabinets. The two most influential members of the 1945 cabinet were Ernest Bevin, acclaimed as foreign secretary, and Herbert Morrison, acclaimed as lord president of the council and deputy prime minister.

Bevin left school at 11 to take a job as a farm boy, and was subsequently a kitchen boy, a grocer's errand boy, a van boy, a tram conductor and a drayman before, at the age of 29, he became active locally in Bristol in the Dock Wharf, Riverside and General Labourers' union.

Herbert Morrison was in many ways an even more significant figure, whose rise to prominence was not so much through the unions as through local government.

His first job was also as an errand boy and assistant in a grocer's shop, from which he moved on to be a junior shop assistant and an early switchboard operator. He later became so influential as leader of the London county council partly because of his previous success as minister of transport in the 1929 Labour government.

(...)

It is a sharp contrast with the Blair cabinet, largely filled as it is with members of the meritocracy.

In the new social environment, the rich and the powerful have been doing mighty well for themselves. They have been freed from the old kinds of criticism from people who had to be listened to. This once helped keep them in check - it has been the opposite under the Blair government.

The business meritocracy is in vogue. If meritocrats believe, as more and more of them are encouraged to, that their advancement comes from their own merits, they can feel they deserve whatever they can get.

They can be insufferably smug, much more so than the people who knew they had achieved advancement not on their own merit but because they were, as somebody's son or daughter, the beneficiaries of nepotism. The newcomers can actually believe they have morality on their side.

Michael Young, "Down with meritocracy", June 2001

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2001/jun/29/comment

baboon2004
07-07-2016, 07:46 PM
The idea that neither Johnson nor Gove would end up profiting from a Brexit vote, and indeed that it would sideline them both as political forces..the last month has been pretty extraordinary.

At least the sociopathic rightwinger who heads up the UK government will have female genitalia, so that's an upside.

Leadsom's recipe for a perfect British society: “Take one cup of Anglo Saxon determination; mix with a jugful of Muslim respect for the family; stir in a pinch of traditional Asian modesty; whisk with two tablespoonsful of military respect for authority; serve on a bed of East European work ethic.”
Having read some more of her blog posts, she is terrifying. Absolutely crazy, but with some ideas that are bizarre right wing twists on thinking that is actually quite progressive (eg recognising the existence of early trauma and its contribution to issues in later life - "It's my view that our society is paying the price of a cycle of misery passed down the generations" - which I could never imagine Cameron doing in a million years. But then suggesting the use of this knowledge to discriminate and oppress.). She is a seriously odd person, in a way that seems scary in a v different way to the Theresa Mays of this world.

Mr. Tea
07-07-2016, 08:18 PM
At least the sociopathic rightwinger who heads up the UK government will have female genitalia, so that's an upside.

Sorry if you're being ironic here and I've missed the joke, but I can't see anything to celebrate even in this, in and of itself. I mean, were the '80s a golden age for women's rights in this country just because Thatcher was in charge? I rather get the impression that any progress made in that direction happened despite her, not because of her.

If anything, having a woman lead such a right-wing government could even be counter-productive from the POV of progressive politics, as it could allow the Tories to claim some sort of feminist credentials they don't remotely warrant. A bit like how some white Americans seem to think racism is "solved" because there's been a dark-skinned man in the Oval Office (or, more ridiculously still, that it's "swung back the other way" and it's now whites who are horribly oppressed and persecuted).

Not that I'm saying Obama's presidency hasn't been (in some respects) a good thing or that it shouldn't have happened - far from it - just that we shouldn't kid ourselves about how much progress has actually happened just because there is or has been a mixed-race PotUS or a female PM.

baboon2004
07-07-2016, 08:50 PM
definitely being ironic! I was kinda nodding to all those commentating on the US election who say that the mere presence of a woman in the Oval Office will be a victory for all women, regardless of the record/views/identity of the person involved (and the assumption that a female PM/president will even be sensitive to the rights/interests of other women, let alone those facing other forms of discrimination, e.g. https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/01/hillary-clinton-president-my-turn-feminism-welfare-reform-haiti/)

trza
07-07-2016, 09:18 PM
So a person named Doug, writing for Jacobin magazine, is the final arbiter of feminism and female progress?

Mr. Tea
07-07-2016, 10:00 PM
definitely being ironic!

My apologies, Hywel - I should know you better than that by now! Was just being a bit dense.

baboon2004
07-07-2016, 10:03 PM
@trza:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/julia-sharpelevine/why-hillary-clinton-is-in_b_9720154.html

Do you have a non-point-scoring comment in store for us? i.e. stop making straw men/women so you can be self-righteous. We all do that from time to time, though.

Rania Khalek: http://fair.org/extra/hillary-clinton-and-the-feminism-of-exclusion/
Belen Fernandez: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/03/hillary-clinton-faux-feminism-160328105225310.html

Who is the ultimate arbiter of feminism and female progress, by the way?

baboon2004
07-07-2016, 10:05 PM
My apologies, Hywel - I should know you better than that by now! Was just being a bit dense.

no worries, plenty of people have made that same argument recently without being ironic

sadmanbarty
13-07-2016, 05:16 PM
In the European referendum, remain won 46% of the money given and lent to the two sides (£20.4m) and 48% of the vote; leave won 54% of the money and 52% of the vote.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/13/billionaires-bought-brexit-controlling-britains-political-system

baboon2004
13-07-2016, 09:00 PM
BREXIT FUCKING SECRETARY?!?! what the actual fucking fuck

"The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Rt Hon David Davis MP as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union."
Satire is either officially dead or the replacement for the 'real' news. Can't decide which.

Johnson the first person in history to be appointed as Foreign Secretary solely on the basis that EVERYONE in the UK hates him?

Corpsey
13-07-2016, 09:19 PM
Proposed new flag after Scotland leave the UK

http://www.thepolyglotdream.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/statue-of-a-disappointed-man.jpg

baboon2004
13-07-2016, 09:21 PM
funnily enough i have been striking that exact pose for the past 20 minutes.

Corpsey
13-07-2016, 09:22 PM
I'm glad VR is coming in the next few years cos reality is looking increasingly shit with each passing day.

vimothy
14-07-2016, 12:42 PM
Jonathan Haidt, "When and Why Nationalism Beats Globalism": http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/10/when-and-why-nationalism-beats-globalism/

droid
14-07-2016, 04:41 PM
Great stuff here, and I reckon the Corbyn coup has a right to be in this thread (though the PLP surely disagree).


Many if not most of the MPs in the Labour Party who want to get shot of Jeremy Corbyn have more in common with Tory MPs across the chamber in the House of Commons than with either Corbyn or most of the people who vote for them. They are the sturdy backbone of political Britain, and Jeremy Corbyn is -in the words of a New Statesman columnist- ‘a cancer‘.

This is not merely a matter of policy. You only have to look at the annual Spectator garden party pics and see the likes of Harriet Harman and Liz Kendall sharing a Pimms in the company of David Cameron and Theresa May to realise that for them, politics is both an elite profession and a social clique. It is a role and vocation for the cultivated and enlightened.

The hapless Angela Eagle was likely pushed forward to challenge Corbyn because, among other things, she went to a comprehensive before she went to Oxford. Hence the Parliamentary Labour Party coup plotters view her as the kind of figure who ought to know how to bridge the gap between elite political society and working class Labour voters, in a way that a braying calamity like Tristram Hunt, say, could not. The trouble is she hasn’t a notion. Leading media voices think she’ll do just fine, of course, but that’s because they haven’t a clue either.

Despite Jeremy Corbyn’s appeals, the time of kinder, gentler politics has passed. Gone are the days when a Labour politician could vote to bomb a country or to privatise elements of the health and education services or to punish welfare recipients, and feel insulated from public anger.

In this new climate of nastiness, when people sometimes seem more vocal in speaking out against such matter-of-course procedures as bombing the Middle East and impoverishing poor families, it is hard for people who, in bygone days, could pass themselves off as ‘conviction politicians’ who want to give shape to such nebulous concepts as ‘aspiration’. Their credibility has plummeted because they find it impossible to come straight out with it and say without qualification or prevarication that they’re against austerity. For them, when Jeremy Corbyn proposes that austerity is a political choice and not a self-evident necessity, it makes the task of convincing the Tory-voting parent in their head all the more difficult.

https://hiredknaves.wordpress.com/2016/07/13/the-end-of-the-garden-party/

Mr. Tea
14-07-2016, 10:26 PM
Department for Energy and Climate Change axed :-/ (http://www.edie.net/news/11/DECC-axed-and-merged-into-Department-of-Business--Energy-and-Industrial-Strategy-/)

Corpsey
25-07-2016, 09:53 AM
Not actually had the chance to read more than a third of this yet, but John Lancaster is habitually excellent so I can't think it'll be a waste of your time to read his thoughts on Brexit: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/john-lanchester/brexit-blues