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baboon2004
15-07-2016, 12:10 PM
After the appalling tragedy yesterday, surely something different needs to happen if anyone is serious about preventing further such attacks and further such loss of civilian life. Not the same old stupid, belligerent responses. I thought this was pretty good in that direction:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/nice-terror-attack-truck

In particular this:
"A Nice truck driver does not remotely threaten the security of the French state, any more than such acts do the security of America or Britain. The identification of the nation state with random killings of innocent people has become a political aberration."

droid
15-07-2016, 12:16 PM
Things have moved into an arguably more dangerous place now with San Bernardino, Orlando and now this. Its possible to defend against organised terror cells via intelligence & police work - difficult, but possible.

Seemingly random attacks by individuals 'inspired' or in solidarity or justified by an ideology or group are far more difficult to detect, prevent or contain.

vimothy
15-07-2016, 12:27 PM
"A Nice truck driver does not remotely threaten the security of the French state"

They certainly threaten its legitimacy.

vimothy
15-07-2016, 02:08 PM
As with the killing of 49 people in a nightclub in Florida last month, investigators will want to establish the degree to which Isis or any other group might have been involved as soon as possible. This is not a mere detail but crucial to understanding the continuing threat.

There is a vast range of possibilities: from direct commission, organisation and execution through to the most tenuous connection via ideological inspiration over the internet. There are reports that the attacker in Nice was a 31-year-old French citizen of Tunisian origin who was known to police, but not to intelligence services.

French authorities – like counterparts around the world – have learned that the most lethal attacks in their country have been perpetrated by individuals or networks with connections to outside organisations.

Mohamed Merah, who killed seven in a shooting spree in 2012, was initially described as a lone wolf but found to be connected to a breakaway al-Qaida faction. Those who attacked Charlie Hebdo magazine last year had a tenuous link to al-Qaida in Yemen. The more recent strikes, including those in November last year and in Belgium in March, involved a well-established network linked to Isis.

Jason Burke, "France attack: use of truck in Nice demonstrates evolving nature of threat": https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/15/france-attack-use-of-truck-demonstrates-evolving-nature-of-threat

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 02:21 PM
Police and intelligence agencies must be thinking wistfully back to the days of 'proper' franchised jihadi cells, each reporting to a regional leader, in turn directed from Pakistan/Iran/Libya...

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 02:30 PM
They certainly threaten its legitimacy.

I think this is fair, in that one of the major purposes of the nation state is to safeguard its citizens, so if it can't do that then it's not much good, is it?

droid
15-07-2016, 02:32 PM
Its particularly sad seeing as France opposed Iraq and they are now dealing with some of the consequences of that awful decision.

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 02:38 PM
Its particularly sad seeing as France opposed Iraq and they are now dealing with some of the consequences of that awful decision.

I tried - with no great success, if hardly need be said - to use this argument with zhao on Facebook when he invariably said "But Iraq!" in response to any argument about the causes of Islamist terror attacks on any Westerners.

droid
15-07-2016, 02:44 PM
Obv you have to consider that possibility of further attacks post 911 regardless, but Iraq (other than providing a crucible for ISIS) has taken us from (primarily) one relatively localised organisation to hundreds of distributed organisations with (probably) many thousands more individuals willing and seemingly able to act with little or no contact with traditional terror structures.

Like kicking an unwanted mushroom and spreading the spores all over your garden. A complete fucking disaster.

baboon2004
15-07-2016, 02:47 PM
They certainly threaten its legitimacy.

It definitely threatens the legitimacy of the current government.

The government that is talking about these attacks as though they're an existential threat to France. “We will continue striking those who attack us on our own soil", as though this is WWII or something and French territorial integrity is at stake. That kind of policy probably won't affect Hollande's personal security, and it certainly won't affect the security of the French state as an entity, but it practically ensures that more French civilians will be killed.

vimothy
15-07-2016, 03:00 PM
This paper provides the first systematic analysis of the link between economic, political, and social conditions and the global phenomenon of ISIS foreign fighters. We find that poor economic conditions do not drive participation in ISIS. In contrast, the number of ISIS foreign fighters is positively correlated with a country's GDP per capita and Human Development Index (HDI). In fact, many foreign fighters originate from countries with high levels of economic development, low income inequality, and highly developed political institutions. Other factors that explain the number of ISIS foreign fighters are the size of a country's Muslim population and its ethnic homogeneity. Although we cannot directly determine why people join ISIS, our results suggest that the flow of foreign fighters to ISIS is driven not by economic or political conditions but rather by ideology and the difficulty of assimilation into homogeneous Western countries.

Efraim Benmelech & Esteban F. Klor, "What Explains the Flow of Foreign Fighters to ISIS?": http://www.nber.org/papers/w22190

Corpsey
15-07-2016, 03:16 PM
Why have multiple attacks succeeded in France and yet in England we've managed to escape a major attack since 7/7? Better intelligence, or more of an issue of border security?

Also, are attacks like this motivated specifically by e.g. bombing in Syria, or do ISIS have a broader goal of turning the West against Islam and inciting a sort of religious war?

The push to the right will continue apace with attacks like these. Pretty miserable time to be alive, eh?

baboon2004
15-07-2016, 03:25 PM
@ Vimothy

I obviously haven't read the whole paper, but I don't understand those conclusions really.

Even in countries with (relatively) low income inequality overall, areas of extreme poverty and extreme relative poverty exist. No generalised analysis on a country basis, be it GDP or HDI or FXP, can tell you very much. If you feel excluded from 'mainstream' society, you feel excluded. "But surely you can't feel excluded. Look at these GDP figures!" makes its own cartoon.

Also, difficulty of assimilation into Western countries is directly related to 'political conditions', however you take that phrase. France's long-term attitude towards its Muslim citizens is an obvious example.

And what does 'ideology' actually mean in this context, if it can be divorced from economic and political considerations?

vimothy
15-07-2016, 03:42 PM
They're just looking for trends. One thing that you might expect is that countries with relatively more income inequality have relatively more alienated Muslims who go off to join ISIS, but that doesn't seem to be the case (at least according to this study).

droid
15-07-2016, 04:11 PM
There's a study from about a decade ago wrt terror in the middle east which found a large cohort of well educated upper/middle class participants... motivated primarily by ideology and political grievances.

luka
15-07-2016, 04:17 PM
Why have multiple attacks succeeded in France and yet in England we've managed to escape a major attack since 7/7? Better intelligence, or more of an issue of border security?

my guess, neither. i think the specific history of french colonialism is a better place to start looking personally. That plus the sort of French secularism that led the the Hebdo cartoons and which is so incompatible with Islamic extremism.

Here we have no principles, we just think, vaguely, that people should be nice to each other to the extent thats possible, and ignore each other when niceness is too difficult.

luka
15-07-2016, 04:29 PM
poor,old France.

vimothy
15-07-2016, 04:40 PM
Size of the Muslim population surely has something to do with it as well.

vimothy
15-07-2016, 04:42 PM
There's a study from about a decade ago wrt terror in the middle east which found a large cohort of well educated upper/middle class participants... motivated primarily by ideology and political grievances.

Marc Sageman?

luka
15-07-2016, 04:51 PM
Size of the Muslim population surely has something to do with it as well.

i mentioned that vimothy, i just didnt spell it out.

baboon2004
15-07-2016, 05:32 PM
also, the incredibly divisory nature of urban planning in France probably plays a part

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 06:38 PM
There's a study from about a decade ago wrt terror in the middle east which found a large cohort of well educated upper/middle class participants... motivated primarily by ideology and political grievances.

Bin Laden himself being surely the most obvious example - son of a billionaire building tycoon, degree in civil engineering.

owengriffiths
15-07-2016, 06:57 PM
As for "why France and not elsewhere"... would the French army's involvement in Mali a few years ago be a good reason.

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 09:40 PM
As for "why France and not elsewhere"... would the French army's involvement in Mali a few years ago be a good reason.

Does France have a more extensive recent history of military intervention in majority-Muslim parts of the world than the UK, though? Surely not, if you include Kosovo and Iraq. So why are so many more attacks happening there than here? Is it just that our spy agencies have got it together better than theirs?

Mr. Tea
15-07-2016, 09:58 PM
That plus the sort of French secularism that led the the Hebdo cartoons and which is so incompatible with Islamic extremism.


Also, this sounds a bit naive. France's tradition of what you might call robust secularism is clearly extremely compatible with Islamic extremism - to the extent that the two tendencies feed off each other symbiotically.

It's also worth quoting this from the Guardian piece:


In recent years, as elsewhere in Europe and the Islamic world, rigorous and intolerant strands of Islamic observance have made inroads, as well as, more recently, a new, debased, ultra-violent “gangsta Jihad” culture attractive to a young and often marginalised constituency.

Which is basically true, isn't it? Whenever details about the personal lives of the guys who commit these atrocities comes out, they're very often not exactly paragons of Islamic observance. If they weren't going on jihad they'd be sticking up off-licences and selling smack on street corners. The Guardian bit above says the truck driver was known to local cops as a thug and a thief, but they had no indication he might fancy himself as a sacred warrior of Allah. Religion clearly has something to do with it, but it's all horribly mixed up in a matrix of race issues, ghettoisation, social exclusion and poverty, and probably also mental illness.

Edit: as the article points out, this is quite a recent development and is mainly a French and Belgian thing, quite distinct from the figure of the erudite scholar-bomber.

luka
16-07-2016, 01:30 AM
You always miss the point in favour of reciting an over rehearsed rant. Why?

Mr. Tea
16-07-2016, 08:36 AM
I think you've missed the point. If France's culture was incompatible with Islamic extremism then they wouldn't keep having attacks by Islamic extremists, would they?

luka
16-07-2016, 09:33 AM
The problem is you have no principles, no point of view, no centre of gravity. Just a grab bag of prerehearsed speeches which you shoehorn into every conversation regardless of context. It's quite frustrating.

Mr. Tea
16-07-2016, 10:04 AM
Come on, that's somewhat unfair. I don't claim to have answers to everything - anyone who purports to do so is talking bollocks, obviously - but that's hardly the same as having no opinions.

vimothy
16-07-2016, 12:42 PM
Europeans find themselves in an intellectual milieu dominated by the dogmas of very disputable conceptions of universalism and cosmopolitanism, based on alleged “European values”, which are unfortunately, as it should be now clear to everybody, open to mass abuse and exploitation... The ubiquitous and immediate rhetoric of “unity” (nous sommes unis), ironically suggests that such unity also encompasses, if not the terrorists themselves, practically all other elements which have allowed the emergence of a home-grown Islamism and terrorism on European soil, thus indirectly suggesting that things will continue exactly on the very same trajectory that brought the situation to the current point.

Roberto Oris, "Islamic Terrorism: Blood or Tomato Sauce?": https://www.academia.edu/19719494/Islamic_Terrorism_Blood_or_Tomato_Sauce

baboon2004
16-07-2016, 03:45 PM
Hollande's popularity went up by 7/8 points following the November attacks in Paris (and his handling of them), but seems like the opposite is happening now. As much as I dislike Hollande, seems like his potential downfall will be nothing but a windfall for the far right

droid
16-07-2016, 10:37 PM
Come on, that's somewhat unfair. I don't claim to have answers to everything - anyone who purports to do so is talking bollocks, obviously - but that's hardly the same as having no opinions.

I dont think he's saying you have no opinions, just the same opinions, regardless of subject, which is a little harsh but I think also partly true - not that me saying it will help things. :cool:

Leo
16-07-2016, 10:45 PM
Hollande's popularity went up by 7/8 points following the November attacks in Paris (and his handling of them), but seems like the opposite is happening now. As much as I dislike Hollande, seems like his potential downfall will be nothing but a windfall for the far right

spending $11,000 a month for haircuts doesn't help.

luka
16-07-2016, 11:06 PM
Yeah maybe a bit harsh? I don't know. I was expressing frustration. You know that I'm Mr middle England the arbiter of common sense shtick does my head in

Mr. Tea
16-07-2016, 11:12 PM
I dont think he's saying you have no opinions, just the same opinions, regardless of subject, which is a little harsh but I think also partly true - not that me saying it will help things. :cool:

Well why formulate a new opinion for every situation when you've got one already that'll do perfectly well? It's inefficient.

Mr. Tea
16-07-2016, 11:14 PM
Yeah maybe a bit harsh? I don't know. I was expressing frustration. You know that I'm Mr middle England the arbiter of common sense shtick does my head in

Oh come on, you love it! And you're Luka, the lysergic poet-warrior-mystic. That's how our double-act works.

droid
16-07-2016, 11:18 PM
lol. Yeah, Luka, thats how you are to be known from now to eternity. The funny man in a double act with tea.

droid
16-07-2016, 11:23 PM
Locked together unto infinity. Like Sisyphus and his boulder.

baboon2004
16-07-2016, 11:47 PM
spending $11,000 a month for haircuts doesn't help.

the mind does boggle
http://www.telesurtv.net/export/sites/telesur/img/news/2016/07/13/hollande_hair1.jpg_959857397.jpg

luka
17-07-2016, 08:28 AM
You've got a rhetorical strategy you always lean on. Every interjection goes like this
'steady on chap, that's a bit rich for my gullet"
'hey, go easy there friend, you'll frighten the horses'
'woah nelly'
'calm down dear, Mr common sense is here'

luka
17-07-2016, 08:30 AM
Never go too far in any direction, is the basic law on which Limey-Land is built.

Mr. Tea
17-07-2016, 01:46 PM
Mr middle England

I don't think the phrase "middle England" means what you think it means, or would like it to mean.

The reflexive horror of anything that smacks of moderation reminds me of some hilariously awful bollocks I once read (from the inimitable pen of one S. Kriss) about how 'moderates' - "people who drink exactly half a bottle of wine with their dinner" - are, like, literally the worst kind of people that exist. Because, you know, it's definitely preferable to be either a joyless abstainer or a piss-soaked lush with a liver like a prune than to have a functional relationship with alcohol. Fascism and Maoism are definitely far superior to liberal democracy. And so on.

luka
17-07-2016, 01:55 PM
You're doing it again!

luka
17-07-2016, 01:56 PM
You don't get to decide what middle England means. Wikipedia gets to decide
The phrase "Middle England" is a socio-political term which generally refers to middle class or lower-middle class people in the United Kingdom who hold traditional or right-wing views.
Middle England - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org › wiki › Middl...

luka
17-07-2016, 02:00 PM
Im not trying to argue with you though. You misunderstand me. I'm very benevolent. I'm trying to teach you something. I'm trying to help you. I'm holding up a mirror and saying, have a look at this. That way you can grow and become stronger and wiser.

Mr. Tea
17-07-2016, 02:18 PM
Then I don't think you know what "right-wing" means.


I'm very benevolent. I'm trying to teach you something. I'm trying to help you. I'm holding up a mirror and saying, have a look at this. That way you can grow and become stronger and wiser.

Lol, thanks Yoda.

luka
17-07-2016, 02:18 PM
Tbf the Gangsta jihad thing is intersting and because I am a leading sociologist I've been tracking it for years. It's linked to prison life. You can see it in the Muslim Boys gang that terrorised sout London with forced conversions a while back. You can see it in Notorious, the Nike Bikies from Sydney mostly if Lebanese descent. It's been present in black America for years intermingling with NOI and 5%. The more scared mainstream society is of Muslim the more attractive it becomes.

luka
17-07-2016, 02:21 PM
It's pointless trying to accuse me of not knowing what specific words or concepts mean. We all know I know. You're here to learn not compete. I'm here to teach not to compete. Droid and Craner, they do the competing. They're good at it.

Mr. Tea
17-07-2016, 02:23 PM
because I am a leading sociologist...

Most people here talk from time to time about things which they are not, in fact, a professor of.

luka
17-07-2016, 02:24 PM
I mean like, if this was a physics forum I'd sit at your feet and take notes. I'd defer to you. But it's not.

luka
17-07-2016, 02:32 PM
Don't get me wrong. What you got going for you is a willingness to learn. It's very courageous and humble. I admire that. You want to develop your inferior faculties. More of us should do that, but it's difficult and it's frustrating

luka
17-07-2016, 02:35 PM
Craner should start meditating, droid should develop his social skills, I should do... Whatever I need to do. In that way you're an inspiration

Mr. Tea
17-07-2016, 03:14 PM
Craner should start meditating, droid should develop his social skills, I should do... Whatever I need to do.

But you already reached the status of Perfect Illuminated Master years ago, right? There's no way you possibly can grow. Really, you're the one we should feel sorry for.

luka
17-07-2016, 03:17 PM
It's just a sacrifice like the one Buddha made. No big deal

luka
17-07-2016, 03:22 PM
I wasn't having a dig though. Learn to 'own the compliment '

IdleRich
17-07-2016, 05:56 PM
Seemingly random attacks by individuals 'inspired' or in solidarity or justified by an ideology or group are far more difficult to detect, prevent or contain.
Especially if you don't need a load of weapons or a bomb - just a truck. I think that's a big thing that I've not seen much discussion of (maybe it's there and I've missed it) but if you can kill a hundred people with something that is readily available to anyone then there is a new problem. I wonder why no-one ever thought of that before. It's like, security is so high at airports and for planes, why don't terrorists blow up ships or trains or something that would be much easier? Planes make more of a statement of course but now it seems statements aren't so important, the thing is just to kill people - wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw more of these softer targets blown up in the near future.

Mr. Tea
17-07-2016, 06:32 PM
It's like, security is so high at airports and for planes, why don't terrorists blow up ships or trains or something that would be much easier?

There was a huge bomb attack against trains in Madrid in 2004, remember. To say nothing of the attacks on buses and the Tube in London a year later.

But yeah, why bother doing difficult stuff with explosives, which'll involve lots of planning and preparation and is liable to be detected by intelligence agencies, when you can cause a similar death toll with something as mundane as a truck? It is in a sense even more terrifying because it's that much more difficult to stop.

vimothy
18-07-2016, 01:12 PM
French prime minister Valls booed at the memorial in Nice: https://www.rt.com/news/351834-valls-nice-minute-silence/

Mr. Tea
18-07-2016, 02:03 PM
"France is going to have to live with terrorism" - not words that people want to hear, but it's hard to see how it can be any other way.

Corpsey
19-07-2016, 11:46 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/world/europe/in-the-age-of-isis-whos-a-terrorist-and-whos-simply-deranged.html

vimothy
19-07-2016, 01:12 PM
In that vein:


Lahouaiej-Bouhlel certainly matches the classic profile of French violent Islamic extremist in many ways – though he is a relatively recent arrival rather than born in the country of immigrant parents, as is more usually the case. He was a young, male petty criminal. He was also not devout, all witnesses so far agree. He did not fast during Ramadan, ate pork, drank, and was never seen at any local mosque.

This lack of piety among militants may seem confusing. It is, however, the rule rather than the exception. It was true of the dozen or so French and Belgian young men involved in bombings and shootings earlier this year, and of Mohammed Merah, who committed the first major attack in France in 2012. Other examples beyond France include that of Omar Mateen, who killed 49 in a Florida nightclub last month.

This apparent paradox has prompted a keen debate among experts. The argument has major policy implications. In France, it has been bitter. Olivier Roy, a well-known French scholar currently at the University of Europe in Florence, suggests those drawn into violent activism are already “in nihilist, generational revolt”. This is why so many are criminals, or marginal. Extremist Islam gives them a cause and frames anger and alienation in the way extremist leftwing ideologies did for some in the 1960s and 1970s. The new militants are thus not victims of “brainwashing” by cynical and fanatical recruiters. This is the Islamisation of radicalism, Roy says, not the radicalisation of Islam.

Many disagree. Some say Roy naively ignores the impact of intolerant and reactionary doctrines on Muslim communities in the west. Others suggest he underestimates the historical impact of western colonialism as well as that of more recent western policies in the Middle East.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/16/nice-truck-attack-terrorism-profile

baboon2004
19-07-2016, 02:21 PM
The last paragraph you quoted seems to be critical. There have always been a significant number of western politicians who have believed that they could treat the world, and their own citizens, in whatever way they wished without consequences. Of course these consequences are not visited upon them, but rather upon innocents. It would have been heartening to see Valls booed yesterday (in general and in this specific moment) if one didn't believe that all this is only going to benefit the FN in the end. Swapping one kind of craziness for another, even worse.

Also, terrorism has been pretty regular in France since the Algerian War - it's just far more deadly these days https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_France

sufi
19-07-2016, 05:41 PM
Tbf the Gangsta jihad thing is intersting and because I am a leading sociologist I've been tracking it for years. It's linked to prison life. You can see it in the Muslim Boys gang that terrorised sout London with forced conversions a while back. You can see it in Notorious, the Nike Bikies from Sydney mostly if Lebanese descent. It's been present in black America for years intermingling with NOI and 5%. The more scared mainstream society is of Muslim the more attractive it becomes.
This is a brilliant post, the most insightful thing i've seen written about islamic terror/isis on dissensus, & better than almost anything in the mainstream media (and it's luka's obvs)...
ISIS are a prison gang formed in US jails in Iraq, with more in common with Brasil's PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital – PCC) than anything islamic. Their western embassies & unis are Belmarsh, & other HMPs and their equivalents around the world, tho the US occupation prisons seem to be like the ivy league.
Not to say that there's no violent islamist currents, but the ultras and commandos are most often prison badboys and bullies and that's where the glorification of extreme violence comes from, though the western media snuff fixation is a crucial element too

sufi
19-07-2016, 05:43 PM
Tbf the Gangsta jihad thing is intersting and because I am a leading sociologist I've been tracking it for years. It's linked to prison life. You can see it in the Muslim Boys gang that terrorised sout London with forced conversions a while back. You can see it in Notorious, the Nike Bikies from Sydney mostly if Lebanese descent. It's been present in black America for years intermingling with NOI and 5%. The more scared mainstream society is of Muslim the more attractive it becomes.
Ive also been tracking it, i find the disassociated sociologist position highly useful for this sort of voyeurism

sufi
19-07-2016, 05:48 PM
Tbf the Gangsta jihad thing is intersting and because I am a leading sociologist I've been tracking it for years. It's linked to prison life. You can see it in the Muslim Boys gang that terrorised sout London with forced conversions a while back. You can see it in Notorious, the Nike Bikies from Sydney mostly if Lebanese descent. It's been present in black America for years intermingling with NOI and 5%. The more scared mainstream society is of Muslim the more attractive it becomes.
Woolwich is like an epicentre, islam attracts the disaffected in a way that bloods crips and other postcode gangs can't, cos anyone can revert

sufi
19-07-2016, 05:49 PM
Tbf the Gangsta jihad thing is intersting and because I am a leading sociologist I've been tracking it for years. It's linked to prison life. You can see it in the Muslim Boys gang that terrorised sout London with forced conversions a while back. You can see it in Notorious, the Nike Bikies from Sydney mostly if Lebanese descent. It's been present in black America for years intermingling with NOI and 5%. The more scared mainstream society is of Muslim the more attractive it becomes.
tell me more Luka, we need to get this sorted out :)

luka
19-07-2016, 06:15 PM
Want to set up a think tank with me Sufi?

sufi
19-07-2016, 06:20 PM
yep

sufi
19-07-2016, 06:23 PM
i think it's our duty,
unfortunately i don't think this take fits the paradigm

Mr. Tea
19-07-2016, 06:43 PM
I was given to understand that most of the ISIS commanders were heavies from Ba'athist days, ex members of the Imperial Guard and intelligence services/secret police. Although that doesn't preclude many of them having served time in US prisons too, I guess.

sufi
19-07-2016, 06:57 PM
ex members of the Imperial Guard and intelligence services/secret police.
you're thinking of the death star dude :rolleyes:
they got their military skillz and maybe some hardware from the former regime, the viciousness comes from prison

Mr. Tea
19-07-2016, 07:15 PM
Haha, oh dear. Republican Guard, then. I'm going to leave that error as it is since it's funny as you've quoted me, anyway.

But I'd have thought many of these guys were plenty brutal enough already, given what we know of Saddam's regime?

vimothy
20-07-2016, 12:19 AM
Mr. Roy, do you see a connection between terrorism and failed integration in European immigration societies?

Olivier Roy: I don't think that Islamic radicalisation is the result of a failure to integrate. That's only a pseudo-problem. Many of the young people who take up the banner of jihad are well integrated.... The problem is not a lack of cultural integration.... [T]he European jihadists remain dedicated to a very Western model. It is nihilistic, which is not at all in accordance with Islamic tradition. They have... developed a fascination with the aesthetics of violence... [T]hey are more like the students who ran amok in Columbine High School or the mass murderer Anders Behring Breivik.

(...)

How... do you explain the terrorists′ invocation of Islam?

Roy: I am not denying that there is a religious dimension... I only want to emphasise that these young people do not come from the Muslim community. Most of them have no religious education and have rarely visited a mosque. Nearly all were previously petty criminals. They would drink alcohol and take drugs.

What role is played by Europe's colonial past?

Roy: The left wing’s post-colonial vision is inadequate. In my opinion, Islamist radicalisation can neither be attributed to current foreign policy nor to colonial crimes. These young radicals never talk about the war in Algeria, even if that is where their grandfathers came from. They usually don't even know anything about it.

Why do so many siblings commit to jihad?

Roy: These are young people who want to make a radical break with their parents' generation. Their parents have not inculcated them with Islamic culture. By going radical, they view themselves as better Muslims than their parents. Parents in Europe condemn their children for joining the jihad... European parents say: I don't understand what motivates my daughter or my son. A new conflict between generations is being fought out here...

So, in your view, the terrorists are the result of a particularly vehement generational conflict?

Roy: Most jihadists are "born again"; with radical Islam, they get a new lease of life. That's why there are so few jihadists who are part of the first generation of immigrants. That generation still grew up in the traditional Islamic faith. It was not until the second generation of immigrants that a break with the past occurred, because the passing down of religious beliefs stopped working. Most terrorists belong to the second generation of immigrants.

https://en.qantara.de/content/interview-with-french-extremism-researcher-olivier-roy-radicalisation-is-not-the-result-of

Mr. Tea
22-07-2016, 07:32 PM
It's all kicking off in Munich now.

Looks like we're just going to have to get used to this.

Corpsey
25-07-2016, 09:29 AM
The guy in nice, like the guy in Orlando, sounds like he was a violent non-practising muslim who found a decent excuse to perform a real life GTA massacre. The kid in Munich was just an Iranian-German version of Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold.

Almost as if the new model of terrorism is giving suicidal/homicidal young men from islamic communities a template for carrying out suicide with a 'heroic' twist. I mean, perhaps that was always the case, but I feel like this latest crop of terrorists don't seem religiously, or even ideologically, motivated.

EDIT: As I suspected, this has all been covered upthread already. Interesting from luka re: the 'Gangster Jihad' angle. Reminds me of the film 'A Prophet', although that wasn't what that was 'about', necessarily.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 09:43 AM
Meanwhile, there's been another attack in Germany (the fourth in a week, according to the Guardian): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/25/bomb-attack-southern-germany

droid
25-07-2016, 09:51 AM
Coverage of Munich has been even more bizarre than usual. The first major right wing act of terror since Brevik (and directly inspired by him).


In the last few years, we have been confronted by an increasingly hostile, extreme right-wing nationalist discourse that has taken many countries in Europe and the US by storm.

In this context, many young people from immigrant backgrounds - people who were born and raised in the West and saw themselves as part of their countries - began to realise that in the eyes of others, they were foreigners and would always be foreigners. This racist current had a tremendous effect on the self-image of many young people - and I consider myself one of them - and for many young people of Muslim background in particular it created many mental health problems.

Many Iranians in Western countries actually left their own country due to the rise of the Islamist current there, many second-generation Iranians have extreme hostility toward not only their homeland's government, but also to Islam in general.

Before the 1979 Revolution [in Iran] the idea that Iranians were "Aryans" and descended from a grand race with roots in India and links to Europe was widely taught and believed. Just like nationalist myths in every country, in Iran, this was useful for the government and helped create resentment and a sense of superiority over Turks, Arabs, and Islam.

In recent years, some young Iranian men have been attracted to such views, and on the internet they are widely promoted by white supremacists… the exceptional thing in the Iranian case is that it aligns with European right-wing nationalist beliefs.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 10:02 AM
Is there any reason to describe the Ali Sonboly massacre as a "right-wing act of terror", other than the fact he seems to have been inspired by Brevik (among other mass shootings)?

droid
25-07-2016, 10:19 AM
From what we know so far, he was explicitly inspired by Brevik, (date of the shooting apart, - German police cited an 'obvious link') and he deliberately targeted 'foreigners'... the pathological factors don't seem to be a million miles away from Brevik either.

Regardless, if he'd been directly inspired by al-Baghdadi, with a picture of Bin Laden as his facebook profile and had deliberately targeted a Synagogue, I doubt his obsession with mass shootings or would be cited as a major factor - but since its not an Islamist attack all kinds of nuances creep in.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 10:25 AM
Police spokesman Peter Beck said officials don’t yet know what triggered the attack in Munich but that there was no clear political motivation. Searches had revealed no links to terror groups and he suggested the attack was unlikely to have been driven by Islamist extremism.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/23/munich-shooting-loner-facebook-ali-sonboly-bullied-killer

droid
25-07-2016, 10:28 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/23/munich-shooting-loner-facebook-ali-sonboly-bullied-killer

lol, yeah: 'no clear political motivation' and 'no links to terror groups' is the colloquial for 'not a Muslim terrorist'. The same thing happened immediately after Brevik.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 10:29 AM
Brevik wrote a manifesto. Perhaps Ali Sonboly has done the same?

droid
25-07-2016, 10:34 AM
ISIS have a manifesto and political agenda, not sure how many inspired by ISIS have the same.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 10:47 AM
So there's no argument except "tu quoque". It would certainly be an interesting act of desperation if this atrocity were spun as a right-wing act of terror, to deflect attention (and blame) from all the other acts of terror that seem to be occurring on a daily basis.

droid
25-07-2016, 10:52 AM
Uh-huh

http://i455.photobucket.com/albums/qq276/cathouse1979/12310673_10153846982887859_3311188702826747669_n_z psuap0hgke.jpg

sadmanbarty
25-07-2016, 11:23 AM
This is a genuine question (I haven't really followed this news) did the Munich attacker express any political goals?

Corpsey
25-07-2016, 12:00 PM
I read that he had targeted Turkish people specifically but I feel like this is an American style revenge of the nerd thing more than anything particularly political. He admired Breivik but he also admired other, non-political, school shooters.

The Iranian/Aryan thing is interesting, though.

Mr. Tea
25-07-2016, 02:09 PM
The first major right wing act of terror since Brevik

I think you mean the first major act of non-Islamist right-wing terror since Breivik (assuming Jo Cox's murder doesn't count as a 'major attack'). There's a widespread assumption that the left-right axis only applies to white people's politics, but if militant Islamism can be fit anywhere on this axis, it pretty clearly occupies a position on the extreme right.

Mr. Tea
25-07-2016, 02:28 PM
The guy in nice, like the guy in Orlando, sounds like he was a violent non-practising muslim who found a decent excuse to perform a real life GTA massacre. The kid in Munich was just an Iranian-German version of Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold.


I read that he had targeted Turkish people specifically but I feel like this is an American style revenge of the nerd thing more than anything particularly political.

This is astute. The Orlando massacre also fits into an established (and by now decades-hallowed) American tradition of mass shootings in public places. But I wonder if these kinds of attacks lie at one end of a continuum, with 'authentic' jihadi attacks at the other, or if they're better dealt with as a separate phenomenon.

sadmanbarty
25-07-2016, 02:33 PM
if militant Islamism can be fit anywhere on this axis, it pretty clearly occupies a position on the extreme right.

Not really a racial or nationalist component to Jihadi ideology, whereas those are associated with, if not implicit in, far right ideology.

sadmanbarty
25-07-2016, 02:36 PM
But I wonder if these kinds of attacks lie at one end of a continuum, with 'authentic' jihadi attacks at the other, or if they're better dealt with as a separate phenomenon.

Olivier Roy's 'Islamisation of Radicalism' might be of interest to you.

Mr. Tea
25-07-2016, 02:50 PM
Not really a racial or nationalist component to Jihadi ideology, whereas those are associated with, if not implicit in, far right ideology.

True, but consider: the fanatical desire to return to the imagined purity of the distant past, coupled with a willingness to use up-to-the-minute technology to achieve this; the belief in the terminal decadence and corruption of liberal democracy; views about women that we might euphemise as robustly traditional; views about gays and Jews that are nothing short of murderous - I think the similarities considerably outweigh the differences.

Or to put it another way, there's certainly precious little to recommend Islamism to anyone who professes to belong to the political Left, is there? At least, for anyone for whom there's more to being 'left-wing' than hating Israel.

vimothy
25-07-2016, 05:25 PM
So far, [Germany] has been spared the kind of atrocities visited on France and Belgium but security officials have repeatedly warned that is just down to luck. They say there are currently 708 investigations into suspected Islamist terrorism in Germany involving 1,029 suspects.

Hans-Georg Maassen, head of the domestic intelligence service, has stressed that Germany is just as vulnerable to Isis attacks as France. He has singled out the tens of thousands of unaccompanied youths arriving from Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq who are believed to be easy prey for homegrown jihadi networks.

Such concerns were fuelled by an attack just four days before the Munich shootings by a 17-year-old Afghan refugee, who rampaged through a train near the Bavarian town of Würzburg, attacking fellow passengers with an axe and a knife. Five people were injured. The suspect was later shot dead by police. Isis claimed responsibility, releasing a video of the man vowing to kill “infidels” and brandishing a knife.

Meanwhile, in a sign of the new type of danger Germany faces from within, authorities in June said they had broken up a suspected Isis sleeper cell that was planning a terror attack in Düsseldorf. Three Syrian men were arrested: two of them, identified only as Hamza C and Saleh A, joined Isis in 2014 and moved to Germany via Turkey, Greece and the Balkans, a route used by tens of thousands of other refugees with no links to terrorism. At the time of his arrest Hamza C was living at a migrant hostel in the town of Bliesdorf.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93fe54b8-5181-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef.html#axzz4FRDBQ5EA

Mr. Tea
26-07-2016, 11:15 AM
Two knifemen plus a hostage dead at a church in Rouen.

Fucking hell, this is actually happening on a daily basis now.

Not Europe, but a guy in America has been arrested for shooting at some Somali men driving to prayers, there's been *another* fatal nightclub shooting in Florida and someone in Japan has gone nuts and stabbed a load of disabled people to death.

Fucking hell.

sufi
26-07-2016, 11:47 AM
Yes, Jeremy Kyle's headline this morning was "is mass murder contagious?" or something along those lines

Mr. Tea
26-07-2016, 12:13 PM
There does seem to be something in the air right now that goes way beyond the Islamist and what you might call quasi-Islamist attacks. The massacre in Japan is particularly shocking as it has one of the lowest murder rates in the world.

luka
26-07-2016, 12:20 PM
hell in a handcart. me and my fellow 'psychic sensitives' are having some scary dreams.

droid
26-07-2016, 12:22 PM
First mass murder in Japan decades.

As has been pointed out by many people in relation to the RNC - Im pretty sure a statistical analysis (excluding acts of war & terror) would probably show an overall drop in crime and murder... you just hear more about them now (and more quickly and viscerally).

Mr. Tea
26-07-2016, 12:49 PM
First mass murder in Japan decades.

As has been pointed out by many people in relation to the RNC - Im pretty sure a statistical analysis (excluding acts of war & terror) would probably show an overall drop in crime and murder... you just hear more about them now (and more quickly and viscerally).

Right, but satellite TV and the internet weren't invented yesterday. I don't think events like these would have passed us by, say, ten years ago and I can't help but feel there's been an upswing in the last couple of years. Also I'm not sure how useful it is to distinguish between acts of terror and 'traditional' mass murders, especially considering events like the Orlando club shooting and the truck attack in Nice that blur the line between the two.

droid
26-07-2016, 12:51 PM
You seemed quite upset. Im simply trying to comfort you in these times of crisis.

Corpsey
26-07-2016, 12:57 PM
I wonder if there's a correlation between mass media and mass murder of this type. The Japanese massacre has no motive (yet revealed) in common with the Munich shooting, but the coverage of that shooting and other acts of violence could conceivably have given the Japanese lunatic a kick up the arse. I think this is where the contagion comes in. (After all, the Munich killer was a student of school shootings, as are many others - the Virginia Tech killers admiration of the Columbine killers, e.g.).

This article is quite good fun, a series of historians naming years that were probably a lot worse to live in than 2016: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2016/07/is_2016_the_worst_year_in_history.html

Still, this sort of mass murder by an individual is a relatively contemporary phenomenon. I think it's tied in with the media above all else. Anybody who gains mass media attention, if only for a week, becomes a kind of immortal.

While violence is falling overall (Statistically), I wonder if such incidents are the death throes of violence or the first signs of a new wave of mass violence to be unleashed by overpopulation and scarcity of resources. Reminds me of Naomi Klein's essay on the Syrian migrations and the often unremarked upon connection between ecological catastrophe and wars: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n11/naomi-klein/let-them-drown

Corpsey
26-07-2016, 12:59 PM
hell in a handcart. me and my fellow 'psychic sensitives' are having some scary dreams.

reference to?


om February 28th to April 2nd a large proportion of them had dreamed very bizarre things, the intensity of the dreams being immeasurably the stronger during the period of the sculptor’s delirium. Over a fourth of those who reported anything, reported scenes and half-sounds not unlike those which Wilcox had described; and some of the dreamers confessed acute fear of the gigantic nameless thing visible toward the last. One case, which the note describes with emphasis, was very sad. The subject, a widely known architect with leanings toward theosophy and occultism, went violently insane on the date of young Wilcox’s seizure, and expired several months later after incessant screamings to be saved from some escaped denizen of hell.

droid
26-07-2016, 01:04 PM
There is a motive in the japanese attack. He thinks people with serious disabilities should be euthanised, and even wrote a letter to Parliament outlining his ideas. he was (apparently) let go of his job caring for the disabled due to his beliefs - which seems reasonable enough.

Brooker still holds the gold standard wrt media coverage of this kinda thing:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PezlFNTGWv4

And yes, obviously we are heading into a shit storm which will make all of this look like playtime.

sadmanbarty
26-07-2016, 01:21 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoRvRonVIAAeaep.jpg

Corpsey
26-07-2016, 01:22 PM
Sorry, the way I wrote that was confusing. I meant it had no motive in common with the Munich attack, not that 'it had no motive, in common with...'

Obviously both attacks had motives but the motives were unrelated.

Corpsey
26-07-2016, 01:27 PM
I guess we're getting off the subject of Islamist Terrorism here, but the level of depression is supposedly soaring in the UK: 'Rates of depression and anxiety among teenagers have increased by 70 per cent in the past 25 years.'

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/features/teenage-mental-health-crisis-rates-of-depression-have-soared-in-the-past-25-years-a6894676.html

And according to Wiki (the infallible), depression levels are highest in the US: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_depression

Of course, one always wonders whether it's simply that depression is diagnosed (and even misdiagnosed) these days where before it was missed.

But the bomber in Bavaria yesterday had tried suicide several times before, e.g.

Mr. Tea
26-07-2016, 01:35 PM
You seemed quite upset. Im simply trying to comfort you in these times of crisis.

I'm not being hysterical here. I appreciate that the vast majority of people who go about their business each day will get home in one piece.

Anyway, you're usually the doom-monger extraordinaire. Or is it that terror attacks and mass murder are all small beer compared to the ongoing envirocalypse?

Corpsey
26-07-2016, 01:36 PM
re: the Brooker clip, I think we live in a highly individualistic era in which people feel increasingly self-important, and yet are also more aware than ever before (via the media) of their utter lack of importance. Celebrity/media attention is the panacea for the sickness of obscurity. If you aren't on cable news you don't matter.

Most people, of course, don't feel compelled to shoot up a school in order to get their 15 minutes of fame. But if you're extremely alienated (and, likely, extremely arrogant), you can turn to the media to see examples of others like you who were able to take revenge on the uncaring society by killing them, by MAKING THEM CARE.

Mr. Tea
26-07-2016, 01:38 PM
reference to?

I thought the very same!

vimothy
26-07-2016, 10:39 PM
Several of the perpetrators of recent attacks in Europe, from Nice to this weekend’s suicide bombing in Germany, have been reported to suffer from psychiatric problems. Yet for Dr. Samuel Leistedt, mental illness does not explain their actions.

(...)

FRANCE 24: Is there a link between terrorism and mental illness?

Dr. Samuel Leistedt: It’s fundamental to understand that a terrorist is not mentally ill in the strictest scientific terms. There are no real signs of mental illness among those we have been able to study. Even if we’ve observed highly narcissistic and paranoid personality traits, it’s not enough to qualify as pathological.

That said, we can make a real distinction between actual terrorism and what we refer to in psychiatric jargon as the “pseudocommando”....

We use the term pseudocommando because unlike the terrorists involved in some of the more recent jihadist attacks, who were often trained in Syria or Iraq to learn how to use weapons, the pseudocommando often acts alone and without much preparation...

A pseudocommando can present serious personality disorders, with narcissistic and paranoid tendencies. These are people who will often kill themselves before being caught. A typical example of this kind of profile is Nordine Amrani, the Liège killer, who killed five people in an attack in December 2011... The Norwegian Anders Behring Berivik, who killed 77 people in July 2011, also falls into this category... The question was raised at some point whether he should be committed to an institution. But it’s yet another example of a highly narcissistic personality.

FRANCE 24: What can we make so far of Nice attacker Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel’s profile?

Dr. Samuel Leistedt: We can’t yet determine if he belongs to the pseudocommando category, because he was apparently in contact with the Islamic State group... What’s more, it seems as though there was extensive preparation beforehand.

The difference between a pseudocommando and a terrorist is that a terrorist functions as part of a network. Pseudocommandos are isolated, if not lonely. Often, there’s a catalyst for their actions – a divorce, the loss of a job… They don’t let anyone in on their project, and obtain weapons on their own. It’s an isolated and immediate act.

FRANCE 24: According to initial reports, Bouhlel appeared to be extremely psychologically unstable…

Dr. Samuel Leistedt: It’s an exception. Generally terrorists don’t have this type of profile. Depression, ill-being are not the rule. Very few display traits of psychiatric disorders. This man was presented in some media as a psychopath. It was a false analysis... Psychopathy has a very precise definition...

FRANCE 24: The Syrian refugee who blew himself up on Sunday in Ansbach, Germany had spent time in a psychiatric hospital. Are people who are mentally vulnerable a target for Islamic State group recruiters?

Dr. Samuel Leistedt: In Europe, Daesh... recruits from a fertile ground of people who are disenfranchised professionally, socially and who also have family issues – a situation that is particularly common among migrants.

http://www.france24.com/en/20160726-europe-attacks-terrorists-do-not-suffer-mental-illness?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_user&aef_campaign_date=2016-07-26

vimothy
26-07-2016, 10:46 PM
As has been pointed out by many people in relation to the RNC - Im pretty sure a statistical analysis (excluding acts of war & terror) would probably show an overall drop in crime and murder...

My recollection is that there was a general drop in crime rates across the developed world in the '90s, except in Japan (where they rose). In the US crime rates are at historic lows, but that's certainly not true in the UK, for example.

droid
26-07-2016, 11:33 PM
First time Ive really looked TBH, but it seems the trend is down.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03555/crime-figures_3555010b.jpg

vimothy
26-07-2016, 11:40 PM
If you go back further you can see that it's not down in historic terms:

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47727000/gif/_47727330_crime_1898_09_466.gif

vimothy
26-07-2016, 11:48 PM
In America, the situation is different. A quick google-search doesn't turn up an equivalent graph, but here is one for murder rates that has been widely shared since Trump's speech (although medical advances is an important confounder):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn76YaPWAAAD405.jpg

Mr. Tea
27-07-2016, 09:29 AM
http://www.france24.com/en/20160726-europe-attacks-terrorists-do-not-suffer-mental-illness?ns_campaign=reseaux_sociaux&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=editorial&aef_campaign_ref=partage_user&aef_campaign_date=2016-07-26

Can Breivik really be called a 'pseudocommando' (great band name, btw) if part of the definition is that they act "without much preparation"? His attacks must have taken an awful lot of preparation, I'd have thought.

On the point about mental illness, it's worth noting that Jo Cox's killer has an extensive history of mental illness, and is said to have sought help the day before he killed her (unsuccessfully, of course, because THERE ISN'T A MAGIC MONEY-TREE, YOU KNOW).

sadmanbarty
27-07-2016, 09:43 AM
If you go back further you can see that it's not down in historic terms:

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47727000/gif/_47727330_crime_1898_09_466.gif

How much of this is to do with factors like more crime being reported, more things being considered crime, technological advances helping to discover crime, etc.?

vimothy
27-07-2016, 09:50 AM
"Factors like more crime being reported, more things being considered crime" - is there any reason to suppose either of these apply? How much of that rise do you think they could possibly account for, in the most extreme case?

droid
27-07-2016, 10:02 AM
Can Breivik really be called a 'pseudocommando' (great band name, btw) if part of the definition is that they act "without much preparation"? His attacks must have taken an awful lot of preparation, I'd have thought.


Brevik spent (I think ) 3 months making bombs in a farm he rented after forming a farming company 2 years earlier. He also travelled to prague to buy weapons 2 years before the attack and had been working on his manifesto for several years previously. he was probably more prepared than any of the European attackers before or since.

Mr. Tea
27-07-2016, 10:03 AM
How much of this is to do with factors like more crime being reported, more things being considered crime, technological advances helping to discover crime, etc.?

Probably a certain amount. There was a big change to the way crime is recorded in 1997, which is mentioned in the graphic, but there may well have been other big changes in the preceding century.

More things being considered crime is surely a huge part of it - no-one was being arrested for posting racist tweets 50 years ago.

Mr. Tea
27-07-2016, 10:26 AM
Brevik spent (I think ) 3 months making bombs in a farm he rented after forming a farming company 2 years earlier. He also travelled to prague to buy weapons 2 years before the attack and had been working on his manifesto for several years previously. he was probably more prepared than any of the European attackers before or since.

Well there we go then.

AFAIK Breivik did act alone, and although there have been rumours of accomplices (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Norway_attacks#Accomplices), I think it's generally accepted that he was solely responsible.

Still, it seems there was nothing pseudo about Breivik's status as a self-directed, self-equipped commando.

sadmanbarty
27-07-2016, 11:18 AM
"Factors like more crime being reported, more things being considered crime" - is there any reason to suppose either of these apply? How much of that rise do you think they could possibly account for, in the most extreme case?

Maybe I'm being ludicrous, but I think these factors could possibly have a huge effect on the statistics.

It would help clear things up if we could see a breakdown of crime by type. For example the need to report burglary for insurance purposes offers an economic incentive to do so, which may have a significant impact on the number of reported burglaries. The way drug law enforcement changed over the the century is another example. Increased phone ownership and mobility might mean that more incidents are reported to the police, Etc.

Another point to add is that the graph isn't per capita.

sadmanbarty
27-07-2016, 11:31 AM
Another potentially statistically significant one would be driving offences.

droid
27-07-2016, 11:35 AM
This suggests that the homicide rate in England has been steady since the mid 1600's

https://chs.revues.org/docannexe/image/737/img-11-small480.jpg

https://chs.revues.org/737?lang=en

Corpsey
27-07-2016, 11:55 AM
How much of this is to do with factors like more crime being reported, more things being considered crime, technological advances helping to discover crime, etc.?

Also the reliability of statistics.

e.g.: 'There are, of course, serious problems with official statistics of crime. How far might they be massaged by the police forces that collect and collate them? We know, for example, that it was practice in the Metropolitan Police until the 1930s to list many reported thefts as lost property.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/victorians/crime_01.shtml

But surely population growth is the most significant factor to consider here, unless that graph accounts for it?

sadmanbarty
27-07-2016, 02:11 PM
Germany's Misunderstood 'Terror Crisis':

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-25/germany-s-terror-crisis-is-misunderstood

vimothy
27-07-2016, 10:57 PM
But surely population growth is the most significant factor to consider here, unless that graph accounts for it?

You can see the same trend on page 14 of the House of Commons Library research paper, "A Century of Change: Trends in UK Statistics since 1900 (http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/RP99-111)". The graph shows the (per thousand of population) rate of indictable offences since 1900 (ending at the turn of the century). It looks how you'd expect: the same exponential trend with the amplitude scaled slightly to account for (moderate, linear) population growth.

Edwardian Britain was a stereotypically repressive society, relative to today. The Edwardians were nowhere near as liberal with regard to policing and criminal justice as their descendents. Consequently, and commonsensically, we would expect crime to be much lower, which is precisely what the data - which are not exactly ambiguous - suggest.

It seems that, when official statistics are thought to confirm one's prejudices (crime has gone down), their meaning is so clear that only a bovine anti-intellectual like Trump could misunderstand them; yet, when they seem to contradict them (crime has gone up), all sorts of rationalisations can be thought up for why they have no meaning whatsoever.

vimothy
27-07-2016, 11:07 PM
Still, it seems there was nothing pseudo about Breivik's status as a self-directed, self-equipped commando.

I think the distinction the doctor in that article is trying to make is between the sort of people who have military training and experience and work as part of a genuine military (or paramilitary) organisation, like a seasoned Al Qaeda or Hezbollah guerilla, and the sort of unemployed narcissistic fantasist who spends his days in his mother's basement playing Call of Duty and reading Stormfront, like Anders Breivik.

Mr. Tea
27-07-2016, 11:14 PM
I don't know much about the guy apart from what I've gleaned from a glance at his Wiki article, I admit, but it makes mention of alleged trips to Belarus for paramilitary training.

And without wishing to sound like I'm bigging him up or anything, the sheer scale of carnage he was able to inflict surely argues that he spent a lot of time figuring out how to commit a 'proper' terrorist attack - as opposed to playing CoD. I mean, it was in no way a half-arsed or farcical attempt (as some of the attempted Islamist terror attacks in the UK have been - driving cars into airports, failed chapati-flour bombs and so on).

So it looks like the only meaningful distinction is whether they're a genuine "lone wolf" type or a member of a cell or group of some kind.

sadmanbarty
28-07-2016, 12:30 AM
It seems that, when official statistics are thought to confirm one's prejudices (crime has gone down), their meaning is so clear that only a bovine anti-intellectual like Trump could misunderstand them; yet, when they seem to contradict them (crime has gone up), all sorts of rationalisations can be thought up for why they have no meaning whatsoever.

On the other hand, you could argue that confirmation bias lies in blindly accepting the false equivalence between statistics that collect different data in different ways over a hundred year period.

It is much more methodically sound to compare crime data between 1990-2016 than it is to compare data between 1898-2009.

sadmanbarty
28-07-2016, 12:44 AM
Criminalisation of drugs in the UK coincides with the trends in Vim's graph:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom

droid
28-07-2016, 10:23 AM
It would certainly be an interesting act of desperation if this atrocity were spun as a right-wing act of terror, to deflect attention (and blame) from all the other acts of terror that seem to be occurring on a daily basis.


German police investigating the mass shooting in Munich last Friday night in which nine people were killed have said the gunman was racist and a rightwing extremist who saw it as a “special honour” that he shared a birthday with Adolf Hitler.

Ali David Sonboly, 18, who was born in Munich to Iranian parents, boasted to friends that he was proud to be an “Aryan”, citing Iran as the land where Aryans originated and repeatedly stating his hatred of Turks and Arabs.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/munich-gunman-saw-sharing-hitlers-birthday-as-special-honour

It seems that, when events are assumed to confirm one's prejudices (non-Islamist murderers are mentally disturbed, not terrorists) their meaning is so clear that only a bovine anti-intellectual like Trump could misunderstand them; yet, when they seem to contradict them (an attack that is apparently right wing and political), all sorts of rationalisations can be thought up for why they have no meaning whatsoever.

sadmanbarty
28-07-2016, 11:14 AM
It would help clear things up if we could see a breakdown of crime by type.

Table 1 in this does just that:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/116435/hosb0812.pdf

The next step would be going through these offences to see 1) which one's would be illegal a century ago 2) which one's would be reported (insurance claims, victim blaming, 'lost property', etc.) and 3) how has technology and police procedure affected how many of these crimes are detected.

I can't be asked, but someone else is welcome to give it a go.

There's also still the question of how phones and other things have affected how much crime's reported.

Mr. Tea
28-07-2016, 01:04 PM
BTW, in case anyone was still wondering whether Iranian National Socialism is 'a thing': http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SUMKA

sadmanbarty
28-07-2016, 01:48 PM
Don't want to derail the thread so I'll pack it in. I think I was initially trying to make a point with these tidbits, but can't think what the point was.

1) It just occurred to me that homicide rates probably wouldn’t be greatly affected by those variables I was talking about. I suppose there is a problem in that with increased medical advances, less attempted murders will succeed. Nonetheless:

I found this graph from ‘Our World In Data’, which is project set up by Oxford University, so I’m assuming its using sound information:

https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/homicide-rates-in-the-united-states-and-england-1900-2000-pinker-2011-jpg.jpg

I wonder how indicative this is of violent crime overall.

2) In 2011/12 there were roughly 4 million crimes recorded by the police.

Roughly a fifth of that was violence against a person. It’s a quarter if you add sexual offences to that.

A little over five eighths of it is property crime.

The rest is drugs and other miscellaneous crimes.

Maybe my point was that the rise in crime (assuming there was one) was down to the increased ownership of property and goods that get nicked and damaged.

Mr. Tea
22-03-2017, 04:22 PM
Crikey! All kicking off in SW1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39355940

Tentative Andy
22-03-2017, 04:41 PM
Very scary stuff obv. Hoping that all the London people on here are OK.

baboon2004
22-03-2017, 05:24 PM
Totally mental, and the political backlash is going to be horrible.

Mr. Tea
22-03-2017, 06:02 PM
the political backlash is going to be horrible.

Which is generally the whole point, of course. They play their part and the media and government play theirs in turn, in perfect concert with each other, as if scripted.

pattycakes_
23-03-2017, 01:10 PM
as if...

Mr. Tea
23-03-2017, 02:55 PM
Interesting that there's no talk yet of any kind of 'manifesto', message or whatever. Beeb is saying "The so-called Islamic State group has said it was behind the attack", but those wankers would probably take credit for blowing up the Hindenburg and sinking the Titanic if you asked them.

HMGovt
23-03-2017, 04:47 PM
Interesting that there's no talk yet of any kind of 'manifesto', message or whatever. Beeb is saying "The so-called Islamic State group has said it was behind the attack", but those wankers would probably take credit for blowing up the Hindenburg and sinking the Titanic if you asked them.

If you haven't grasped their message by now... kill the unbelievers and apostates in the name of Allah, wherever they are by whatever means. It's not very complex and hardly needs restating every time. It's clearly an appealing message for people with 7th century mindsets living in 21st century societies, who get to end their personal history of misery and failure AND get their name all over the Western media as well as the IS hall of fame.

Mr. Tea
23-03-2017, 04:54 PM
Lol, thanks for that, because until now I'd thought they were all about peace, love and universal brotherhood. :rolleyes:

What I meant was, you now have a situation whereby some nutter with unresolved childhood bullying issues watches some crazy videos on the internet and thinks "I'll have a go at that and then my life, or at least my death, will finally mean something." Then he goes and does it, whatever it is, and someone in ISIS (or claiming to represent them, anyway) then says "Oh yeah, that was us." In contrast to an older model of jihadi terrorism, with organized cells actually under the command of leaders in Pakistan.

droid
23-03-2017, 05:02 PM
What I meant was, you now have a situation whereby some nutter with unresolved childhood bullying issues watches some crazy videos on the internet and thinks "I'll have a go at that and then my life, or at least my death, will finally mean something."

Much closer to the definition of a spree killer in that sense.

HMGovt
23-03-2017, 05:02 PM
Lol, thanks for that, because until now I'd thought they were all about peace, love and universal brotherhood. :rolleyes:

What I meant was, you now have a situation whereby some nutter with unresolved childhood bullying issues watches some crazy videos on the internet and thinks "I'll have a go at that and then my life, or at least my death, will finally mean something." Then he goes and does it, whatever it is, and someone in ISIS then says "Oh yeah, that was us." In contrast to an older model of jihadi terrorism, with organized cells actually under the command of leaders in Pakistan.

That's all they need to do though. Effect verifies cause. We used to do the same. That's what the cenotaph is, a big post hoc justification for who knows what crazy evilry happened on the Western Front with flamethrowers and clubs.

Mr. Tea
23-03-2017, 05:14 PM
Much closer to the definition of a spree killer in that sense.

Well yeah, I think there's a continuum between the non-ideological mass killer and "proper" (organized, planned, ideological) terrorism. Or at least, a hard distinction between the two is a false dichotomy.

Mr. Tea
23-03-2017, 05:29 PM
The man named as the perp was British-born - no surprise there - but was 52, which puts him a clear generation older than your typical jihadi.

baboon2004
23-03-2017, 06:16 PM
Well yeah, I think there's a continuum between the non-ideological mass killer and "proper" (organized, planned, ideological) terrorism. Or at least, a hard distinction between the two is a false dichotomy.

Yep, and that's always been true - ideology is all too often taken at face value as a simplistic substitute for the complex set of factors that would result in someone doing something like this.

(Not to mention the broader issue of the prevalence of Ba'athists among Isis top brass)

craner
23-03-2017, 08:32 PM
At the moment it seems that this "lone wolf" wasn't so "lone": they rarely are, but we'll see how it plays out.

Last bracketed point Baboon made is a very important one, actually, for a lot of complex but crucial reasons.

I still consider ideology a more important factor than mental health, though the latter cannot be disregarded. But it is also not the crucial explanation and certainly not a way to absolve motivations or motivators. That would be the comforting conclusion.

Mr. Tea
23-03-2017, 09:42 PM
To reiterate the not-mutually-exclusive point I made above, I got really sick and tired of Facebook chat in the aftermath of the Jo Cox murder that was polarized between "Thomas Mair isn't a terrorist, he's mentally ill" and "Thomas Mair isn't mentally ill, he's a terrorist". As if being one precluded being the other. Ridiculous.

Corpsey
04-06-2017, 06:57 AM
Hope all the LDN dissensers are okay.

Dismaying times :(

rubberdingyrapids
04-06-2017, 10:02 AM
Hope all the LDN dissensers are okay.

Dismaying times :(

sad times. not what i wanted to wake up to.

this is prob the wrong time to say it, and by no means am i advocating more political/ideological terrorists, but these new terrorists are woefully crap in that sense

they are just nihilists, attaching themselves to radical extreme islamic militancy to find a narrative for their feelings/anger/hatred. and i think most of them do have mental health issues, which ofc makes them more 'vulnerable' or more likely to latch on to a narrative that makes them feel they have a legitimate cause, or motivation, to seek revenge on others for their own issues. (edit - just saw there has been some talk of that already).

also i am just pissed off that these terrorists are doing it during election time and are likely helping steer people towards the tories/ukip who ppl think will be Tough on Terrorism (or whatever). and im bored of news reporters insisting that these guys have wider links or were not acting alone. not sure if this helps people feel more scared or fits a more believable story, but they are prob just DIY terrorists. its disorganised terrorism, internet-democratised.

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 11:10 AM
May has declared "enough is enough", whatever the fuck that's supposed to mean. Sounds a bit like the government kind of couldn't really be arsed tackling terrorism properly until now.

I'm skeptical that many people are going to swing towards the Tories because of this and the Manchester bombing, because we have a Tory government as it is and that hasn't stopped three fatal terror attacks in three months. In fact it's hard not to connect this with the slashing of police numbers.

firefinga
04-06-2017, 11:33 AM
Let's assume the main motivation behind the islamists' terror attacks is the planned resurgence of the (Sunni) Abbaside Caliphate (and that's the motivation at least according to much of their propaganda for several decades now) then their "political" terror isn't unsuccessful - quite the opposite. They influnenced the general election in Spain 2004 (Madrid train bombings) to have the conservative government lose and thus have the socialists under Zapatero pull out troops from Iraq (and therefore easing the pressure on Islamist militants directly).

Clearly they ARE trying to influence the election in the UK at the moment, too - and it doesn't really matter who wins in the end - the Islamists win in any case: Tory - may - take a harder stance, which will reinforce their (=the Islamists) very useful "islamophobia"-Propaganda. Labour - may - stop supporting military operations in Syria/Northern Iraq - which will direclty help the IS troops.

luka
04-06-2017, 12:17 PM
Clearly trying to influence it in what direction then lol

luka
04-06-2017, 12:23 PM
Dont agree with tea btw. May has articulated people's anger 'enough is enough' used the word 'muslim' that's what a lot of people wanted itll be great for her.

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 12:50 PM
Clearly trying to influence it in what direction then lol

Yeah I was about to say, you can't try and 'influence' something in two opposed directions at once.

Whether this will swing opinion towards or away from the Tories: I dunno, I guess it depends on how much faith you have in the general public's reasoning ability - and of course there's the standard disclaimer about social (and social media) bubbles and whatnot, so it would be rash to say this isn't going to make people swing to the right just because that isn't happening to people I know, so there's good reason not to be optimistic on that front.

Really though, I think the argument that militant Islamists are trying to bring about changes in government or government policy might be a decade or more out of date. As RDR says, these guys are nihilists, and it seems western Europe is just going to have to get used to this kind of terrorism because it's so uncorrelated with anything concrete happening anywhere in the world. There've been attacks in countries that took part in the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and the overthrow of Gaddafi, and in countries that had nothing to do with any of that, it's happened in countries with authoritarian governments and in ultra-liberal countries (Sweden, FFS!) - basically any country with a substantial Muslim population.

luka
04-06-2017, 12:50 PM
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/871328428963901440

firefinga
04-06-2017, 01:01 PM
this kind of terrorism because it's so uncorrelated with anything concrete happening anywhere in the world. It's higly correlated, namely with the crushing of the IS- "Caliphate" right now.

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 01:05 PM
It's higly correlated, namely with the crushing of the IS- "Caliphate" right now.

Then why have there been terror attacks by """ISIS""" in countries that are having nothing to do with the fight against actual ISIS, such as Belgium and Sweden?

And why haven't there been far more attacks in Russia, and any (AFAIK) in Iran?

firefinga
04-06-2017, 01:12 PM
Then why have there been terror attacks by """ISIS""" in countries that are having nothing to do with the fight against actual ISIS, such as Belgium and Sweden?

Belgium and Sweden possibly motivated by a general dislike for the secular West, made easier as you said due to the fact of considerably big Mulsim populations. The repeated attacks in the UK and France very likely bc of direct military involvement.

St. Petersburg Bombing just happened a few weeks ago. And in Iran - it's a Shiite country.

Of course you can say they are nihilists, and there's no strategy behind it all. I just don't think it's all that random.

craner
04-06-2017, 03:07 PM
You should read The Mind of Jihad by Laurent Murawiec, Firefinga

luka
04-06-2017, 03:22 PM
You should read The Mind of Jihad by Laurent Murawiec, Firefinga

Why does this not suprise me?

"The second problem is that, in my opinion, the book is racist - or at least as close to racism as you can get in writing without breaking the law."

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/books/the-mind-of-jihad/406908.article

craner
04-06-2017, 03:41 PM
The book is not racist.

pattycakes_
04-06-2017, 04:11 PM
Of course you can say they are nihilists, and there's no strategy behind it all. I just don't think it's all that random.



this (https://youtu.be/yS_c2qqA-6Y?t=2h38m20s) @ 2h38m20s explains it pretty clearly imo.

The same guy: Nasar's best known work is the 1600-page book The Global Islamic Resistance Call (Da'wat al-muqawamah al-islamiyyah al-'alamiyyah) which appeared on the Internet in December 2004 or January 2005.[5][9] In an article in the September, 2006 edition of New Yorker magazine, author Lawrence Wright wrote that in this book, Nasar:

'proposes that the next stage of jihad will be characterized by terrorism created by individuals or small autonomous groups (what he terms 'leaderless resistance') which will wear down the enemy and prepare the ground for the far more ambitious aim of waging war on 'open fronts' ... 'without confrontation in the field and seizing control of the land, we cannot establish a state, which is the strategic goal of the resistance.'[7]

luka
04-06-2017, 04:15 PM
It’s known that Flynn travels on the far edge of the conspiratorial extreme of neoconservative thinking, having recently written a book called “The Field of Flight” with Michael Ledeen, a longtime proponent of the idea that the U.S. faces an existential threat from . . . well, pretty much everyone. (Ledeen famously speculated that even Germany and France were in cahoots with al-Qaida when they failed to back the U.S. invasion of Iraq.)
Flynn and Ledeen are heavily influenced by the late Laurent Murawiec, a French-American neocon ideologue who wrote a book they hail as a “masterpiece” called “The Mind of Jihad.” Murawiec apparently found a web of connections between radical Islamism, Bolshevism and and the Nazis that Ledeen and Flynn find convincing. Among other things, Murawiec was associated for many years with Lyndon LaRouche, one of the fringiest political figures in American life.

craner
04-06-2017, 04:21 PM
Ledeen was not heavily influenced by Murawiec. That's simply false.

luka
04-06-2017, 04:22 PM
It says it right there in black and white

luka
04-06-2017, 04:23 PM
Wait till droid gets here hes gunna lap this up anyway Im going off liscence now fuck em i aint lying down for shariah law

luka
04-06-2017, 04:24 PM
Murawiec served in the French army, advised the French Ministry of Defense, taught history and economics, and served as an economic correspondent for the Executive Intelligence Review, a magazine founded by the controversial conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche. He moved to Washington in 1999 to work for the Rand Corporation and subsequently joined the Committee on the Present Danger and became a senior fellow at the neoconservative Hudson Institute, where he penned numerous books and articles advocating aggressive U.S. military policies in the Middle East in the wake of the 9/11 attack

luka
04-06-2017, 04:28 PM
https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2015/11/3/the-mufti-loved-stalin-too/

Heres where leeden called mind of Jihad 'a masterpiece '

luka
04-06-2017, 04:31 PM
In July 2002, Murawiec gave a presentation regarding Middle East policy for the USA before the Defence Policy Board Advisory Committee. His paper was entitled «Expel Saudis from Arabia», a lecture divided into three parts with the projection of 24 slides.[7] Murawiec argued that "In the Arab world, violence is not a continuation of politics by other means – violence is politics, politics is violence"[8] and calling for an "ultimatum to the House of Saud",[8] ultimately summarising the "Grand strategy for the Middle East" as "Iraq is the tactical pivot, Saudi Arabia the strategic pivot, Egypt the prize".[8]

Read more: Laurent Murawiec https://www.revolvy.com/main/index.php?s=Laurent+Murawiec&item_type=topic#ixzz4j32Xr8xJ
Follow us: @RevolvyEarth on Twitter | RevolvyEarth on Facebook

luka
04-06-2017, 04:38 PM
"According to information that reached a former top official in the Israeli security services, the researchers showed two slides to the Pentagon officials. The first was a depiction of the three goals in the war on terror and the democratization of the Middle East: Iraq - a tactical goal, Saudi Arabia - a strategic goal, and Egypt - the great prize.

"The triangle in the next slide was no less interesting: Palestine is Israel, Jordan is Palestine, and Iraq is the Hashemite Kingdom."

"That is, ethnically cleanse the Palestinians to Jordan, and give Iraq to the Jordanian royal family. Perle, Douglas Feith and David Wurmser spelled much of this out in their Securing the Realm paper."

craner
04-06-2017, 04:39 PM
Here's where Ledeen describes him as going a bit too far and offers constructive criticism, but otherwise correctly praises the book:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.nationalreview.com/article/226317/know-thy-enemy-michael-ledeen

I wrote a blog post about that presentation on ATFF. He got stuck into the House of Saud. Kissinger hated it.

luka
04-06-2017, 04:39 PM
It's really worth looking into the people who shaped craners thinking. Never less than eyebrow raising

craner
04-06-2017, 04:42 PM
I can provide an extensive reading list, if necessary.

luka
04-06-2017, 04:58 PM
I can provide an extensive reading list, if necessary.

reading is precisely where youve gone wrong

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 06:32 PM
reading is precisely where youve gone wrong

Heh.

droid
04-06-2017, 10:14 PM
On political influence via terror. I think tea is right in that specifically targeted political actions are mostly a thing of the past. Bin Laden was an exception rather than the rule in that he had an expansive historical vision and a masterful reading of US military and political behaviour. There is the simple equation of terror = destabilisation and/or calculated attempts to foster right wing elements of western societies and break down democratic norms, but if those are still serious aims then they are now being expressed in the crudest possible terms - if at all.

Last nights awful attacks may well simply have been inspired by Manchester - or just as likely by the police crackdown afterwards. I think the idea of a centrally masterminded - or even a partially directed campaign are fairly fanciful. Other than the cell coordinated from Brussels, or the MI6 sanctioned Libyan Manchester bomber, the sophistication of recent attacks is so basic that it points to complete breakdown of any command structure that may have existed. The problem now is that the sources of political rage (484 civilians killed in Mosul, with UN war crimes investigations on the way to give but one recent example) are, if anything, intensifying whilst the known networks are breaking down, which obviously affects the efficacy of traditional intelligence and policing methods.

droid
04-06-2017, 10:42 PM
The only surprise regarding Craner's influences is that he still clings to them so fiercely, no matter how far they travel from disgrace to farce.

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 11:24 PM
I think tea is right

Can I get this like embroidered or carved into a big slab of granite or something?

droid
04-06-2017, 11:34 PM
Im either an obscenely fair minded commentator who gives credit where its due despite past transgressions, or I'm massaging your flesh so the lashes leave deeper wounds when they fall.

You decide!

firefinga
04-06-2017, 11:44 PM
You should read The Mind of Jihad by Laurent Murawiec, Firefinga

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilles_Kepel

I have read lots from that guy :)

Mr. Tea
04-06-2017, 11:44 PM
Belgium and Sweden possibly motivated by a general dislike for the secular West

Well that's just my point. Targetting those countries only makes sense if you buy into the grand apocalyptic vision of "Islam" vs "The West" - i.e. the vision shared by hard-right, war-happy lunatics in the West and the Islamists themselves.


The repeated attacks in the UK and France very likely bc of direct military involvement.

It's true that France is part of the CJTF in Syria, but let's not overestimate the role played by American and European forces in a conflict that is being overwhelmingly waged by the Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian backers against an amorphous and constantly shifting Opposition, which notionally comprises ISIS and other Islamist groups as well as non-Islamist rebel factions but has been enlarged in definition to include much of the country's civilian population.

And for years many people tried to explain Islamist terrorism in Europe with the single word "Iraq", which may have had some traction in the UK and Spain but certainly doesn't apply to France.


St. Petersburg Bombing just happened a few weeks ago. And in Iran - it's a Shiite country.

The bombing in Russia is the only one, recently, that I've heard of. I'm contrasting that to the fact that Russia has far more direct military involvement in Syria, and has killed (and is killing) far more Muslims there, than all Western countries put together.

Iran has a substantial Sunni minority - a bigger proportion than the total Muslim population of most Western European countries. And these are people with no particular reason to love the present regime either on a domestic front or in terms of Iran's support of Assad in Syria.

Of course, it could just be that it's far easier to catch would-be jihadis before they can carry out an attack in a country with an ultra-authoritarian regime and no regard for civil liberties and human rights.

droid
04-06-2017, 11:49 PM
And for years many people tried to explain Islamist terrorism in Europe with the single word "Iraq", which may have had some traction in the UK and Spain but certainly doesn't apply to France.


Still true - not in terms of motivation necessarily, but in terms of origin. Afghanistan gave us Bin laden, Iraq gave us widespread global Islamist terror.

firefinga
04-06-2017, 11:54 PM
And for years many people tried to explain Islamist terrorism in Europe with the single word "Iraq", which may have had some traction in the UK and Spain but certainly doesn't apply to France.


Which shows certain people's ignorance of the matter, in the mid 1990s there were Terror attacks carried out by the "Armed Islamic Group" (repeated bombings of the paris Metro, plane highjacking). Reason: French invovlement in Algeria. There'S quite a tradition of France being Islamists' target.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Islamic_Group_of_Algeria



The bombing in Russia is the only one, recently, that I've heard of. I'm contrasting that to the fact that Russia has far more direct military involvement in Syria, and has killed (and is killing) far more Muslims there, than all Western countries put together.


You'll see more like this. Islamist terror attacks have happened in the past in Russia repeatedly, connected with the war in Chechnya, the most brutal one in 2004 (schoolkids held hostages in Beslan)



Of course, it could just be that it's far easier to catch would-be jihadis before they can carry out an attack in a country with an ultra-authoritarian regime and no regard for civil liberties and human rights.

That's very likey the case

droid
05-06-2017, 12:17 AM
Which shows certain people's ignorance of the matter, in the mid 1990s there were Terror attacks carried out by the "Armed Islamic Group" (repeated bombings of the paris Metor, plane highjacking). Reason: French invovlement in Algeria. There'S quite a tradition of France being Islamists' target.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Islamic_Group_of_Algeria

AIG attacks on France were not even vaguely religiously motivated, as you say, they were specifically aimed at curtailing France's involvement in the Algerian civil war.



You'll see more like this. Islamist terror attacks have happened in the past in Russia repeatedly, connected with the war in Chechnya, the most brutal one in 2004 (schoolkids held hostages in Beslan)

Again, Beslan was not an 'Islamist' attack by any credible definition of the term. It was an extension of the vicious nationalist conflict of the 2nd Chechnyan war.

The right has consistently argued that Islamist terror is entirely nihilistic and motivated only by religion, whereas virtually all attacks prior to Iraq, going back to Palestinian spectaculars of the 1970's were motivated by specific political situations.

Mr. Tea
05-06-2017, 08:49 AM
Still true - not in terms of motivation necessarily, but in terms of origin. Afghanistan gave us Bin laden, Iraq gave us widespread global Islamist terror.

Yes, Iraq sparked it off, and it's since metastasized into something very nebulous, for which countries that are innocent of the Iraq disaster are now sadly paying the price.

rubberdingyrapids
05-06-2017, 11:32 AM
just heard theresa may talking about it being an attack on the free world. then read a guardian article with ariana grande fans talking about side to side as being a perfect way to piss isis off. lol.

Mr. Tea
05-06-2017, 03:08 PM
Again, Beslan was not an 'Islamist' attack by any credible definition of the term. It was an extension of the vicious nationalist conflict of the 2nd Chechnyan war.


Yeah, you wouldn't really call the Chechen separatist militants "Islamists" any more than you'd call the IRA "Catholic fundamentalists".

rubberdingyrapids
05-06-2017, 04:11 PM
when was the last time a terrorist stated their ideological/political aims after an attack? or is it just that isis are stating it, but media wont report it? cos im confused as to whether people like the saturday night attacks actually have an agenda, no matter how faulty it is. i know isis' basic objectives, i.e the total fantasy of establishing a caliphate, to eradicate the non believers, the bad muslims, and the bad everyone-else, but i find it peculiar that for all their claiming of these attacks, i never hear much about the point behind them, apart from just to instill fear and chaos into society, a claim usually stated by a politician, presumably to get us to understand the position we are meant to assume.

this is prob discussed already, but i was reminded of it again when listening to radio 4 this morning. the whole mentally ill thing vs ideology thing is when its a muslim terrorist, the mental health angle isnt often commented on, its always the fear of their ideology, their beliefs, their culture, their religion, whereas when its some nutjob like thomas mair, no one wants to investigate the ideology behind his thinking, its just dismissal of him as a one off loon. sort of like when you hear muslim clerics saying isis arent anything to do with muslim. well yes, theyre not really religious, but its not like they have no connection to it either.

Mr. Tea
05-06-2017, 04:53 PM
I remember a fuckton of people wanting to investigate the ideology of Thomas Mair - or at any rate, pointing out that he very obviously had one, with clearly articulated values and aims. I mean, it didn't even take that much in the way of 'investigation' - the guy associated with the National Alliance, was obsessed with the Nazis and KKK and yelled "Britain First!" while he attacked Jo Cox.

Mr. Tea
05-06-2017, 05:00 PM
That's not to say the guy doesn't have a screw loose as well, obviously. Though no doubt you could say the same about many of the perps of these recent Islamist (or quasi-Islamist or para-Islamist) attacks.

And yeah, the whole "ISIS aren't Muslims" line is getting really fucking tired now. Muslims are the new Scotsmen, it would seem.

firefinga
07-06-2017, 05:56 PM
Yeah, you wouldn't really call the Chechen separatist militants "Islamists" any more than you'd call the IRA "Catholic fundamentalists".

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/12/chechnya-russia-20-years-conflict-2014121161310580523.html

and @Iran .... today saw what was very likely IS terrorists strike in the heart of Teheran.

Mr. Tea
07-06-2017, 07:21 PM
I saw the news about the Iran attack. Maybe ISIS reads Dissensus? :eek:

On another note, the title of this thread takes on a whole new meaning if you interpret "Nice" as rhyming with "rice".

Mr. Tea
07-06-2017, 07:35 PM
From that a-J article:


Feuding field commanders and foreign jihadists, such as the Saudi known as Emir al-Khattab, ruled small districts with their own little armies. Kidnappings for ransom - along with primitive extraction of oil - were their main sources of income.

Many of the foreigners adhered to a puritanical Muslim ideology known as Wahhabism that ran counter to Chechnya's Sufi traditions.

Akhmad Kadyrov, who was appointed as top Mufti of Chechnya, came into opposition with the puritans and their Chechen supporters, because he saw their extremist views as a threat to the separatist movement. In 1998, Kadyrov openly renounced the Wahhabis - and barely survived the first of many assassination attempts.

I don't know a great deal about the Chechnya conflict, but it sounds like an instance of what Olivier Roy calls the Islamisation of radicalism.

firefinga
08-06-2017, 09:53 AM
Hammer swinging is getting into fashion lately as well....

rubberdingyrapids
08-06-2017, 12:26 PM
weird that all these arrests are just down the road.

firefinga
29-07-2017, 02:02 PM
Deadly knife attack in Hamburg supermarket...

Leo
02-10-2017, 03:07 PM
white guy shoots and kills 58/injures 500 in las vegas and police rule out terrorism because, ya know, he's a white guy.

shooters "inspired by ISIS" are deemed terrorists; shooters inspired by racism/nationalism/general hatred etc. are depicted as "a lone wolf", a "local resident", probably had mental issues, etc.

and like clockwork, conservatives in congress and the NRA wheel out their "thoughts and prayers to the victims' families" and my personal favorite: "now is not the time to talk about gun control" lines.

what a fucking disgusting situation.

EDIT: not in western europe but didn't feel like starting a whole other thread for this one...

Mr. Tea
02-10-2017, 05:32 PM
Ugh, fuck knows. I guess technically it isn't terrorism if there isn't an ideological motive beyond "I hate everyone and everything"? But perhaps he'll yet turn out to have left some pathetic fucking 'manifesto', as they so often do.

Edit: having said that, Dylann Roof had a political agenda that couldn't have been more explicit, and some cunts quibbled about calling him a terrorist even then.

It boggles the mind to think that people can continue to defend the USA's gun laws when shit like this happens again, and again, and again, and again...

Corpsey
03-10-2017, 12:08 AM
As others have pointed out, if America wasn't ready to do something about guns after Sandy Hook...

The paradoxical fallout of these attacks is not that guns are seen as more dangerous and so they are clamped down on, but that guns are so dangerous they need to be defended against with more guns.

The line I'm seeing most on Twitter is that 'criminals will find a way' to get guns even if they're illegal.

I can't imagine America ever doing anything about guns, especially with Drumpf in the driving seat. And so the mass shooting becomes another natural disaster - just hope you aren't swept up in one.

Mr. Tea
03-10-2017, 09:42 AM
The paradoxical fallout of these attacks is not that guns are seen as more dangerous and so they are clamped down on, but that guns are so dangerous they need to be defended against with more guns.


Yeah, I was thinking in the car just earlier when this was on the news again: Where were all the 'good gunmen', the armed citizens ready at a moment's notice to stop something like this as soon as it starts? And at the massacre before that, and the one before that, and the one before that...

Leo
03-10-2017, 12:58 PM
i read some comments from security at that concert, who had concealed carry permits and were armed. they said they couldn't fire back because the police hadn't figured out where the gunfire was coming from, so there was a high likelihood the cops would have mistaken the security guys for the gunman and start shooting AT THEM.

so much for the "good guy" theory.

john eden
03-10-2017, 01:02 PM
The NRA guy on Radio 4 was definitely taking the position that people who want to kill people will find a way and NOT going for the "good gunman" position at all.

I assume this is because even he could see that a whole music festival audience shooting at a hotel was probably not a great tactic.

The best thing that can happen is that the culture in the US changes and it slowly become less and less acceptable to be a gun owner or at least to have a whole shed of automatic weapons. I think there is some move towards that but you'll always have a significant population who care about their inalienable right to weaponry above anything else.

Corpsey
03-10-2017, 01:56 PM
According to this article, at least, guns are used to prevent and defend against crimes but comparatively rarely.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-guns-self-defense-charleston-20150619-story.html

Interesting that only a third of Americans own guns, even though there's enough guns in America to have one per person.

Leo
03-10-2017, 02:51 PM
The NRA guy on Radio 4 was definitely taking the position that people who want to kill people will find a way and NOT going for the "good gunman" position at all.



true, bad guys will always be able to get guns. but there's a disconnect with that argument because those bad guys (aka, criminals) don't commit mass shootings. those "bad guys" use their guns in the commission of crimes...robberies, car jackings, etc. mass shootings are typically committed by seemingly normal people who have anger issues, mental issues, etc. if tightened gun laws can prevent even one of those seemingly normal people from getting guns and going on a rampage, it's worth it.

john eden
03-10-2017, 02:56 PM
true, bad guys will always be able to get guns. but there's a disconnect with that argument because those bad guys (aka, criminals) don't commit mass shootings. those "bad guys" use their guns in the commission of crimes...robberies, car jackings, etc. mass shootings are typically committed by seemingly normal people who have anger issues, mental issues, etc. if tightened gun laws can prevent even one of those seemingly normal people from getting guns and going on a rampage, it's worth it.

Perhaps there is an overarching point here which is that if the bad guys are going to be able to get guns to commit a robbery that honest citizens should be able to get them too so they can defend themselves? I don't agree with that, but it is logical I guess.

The only problem is that mass shootings then become collateral - an unfortunate side show to the main event. A price worth paying...

Mr. Tea
03-10-2017, 04:02 PM
mass shootings are typically committed by seemingly normal people who have anger issues, mental issues, etc.

Exactly - it's far more likely going to be someone who's never been in trouble before than some mean-looking guy with prison tats and a record sheet as long as his arm.

Corpsey
03-10-2017, 04:25 PM
http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/shooting-isnt-about-gun-control-we-refuse-pass-its-57095

'As our nation struggles to come to grips with the horrible tragedy in Las Vegas, it’s only natural for people to search for an explanation of how an atrocity like this could have happened and to call on their elected officials to take measures to prevent such terrible bloodshed from occurring again in the future. Unfortunately, however, we’ve seen enough of these incidents to know that some people will rush to blame firearms for this carnage and will demand that Congress enact sweeping gun restrictions, engaging in misguided efforts that completely miss the underlying reasons behind the violence we’re seeing.

The simple truth is, mass shootings like this aren’t about gun control we refuse to pass. They’re about access to mental health care that we will continue to gut.'

Leo
03-10-2017, 10:01 PM
the questions remain: why do so many more people per capita have guns in the states versus anywhere else? and why do we have so many more shootings compared to anywhere else (...i guess cuz we have so many more guns, duh).

is it all due to the stereotypical macho/freedom-loving "don't tread on me" american psyche?

firefinga
03-10-2017, 10:23 PM
the questions remain: why do so many more people per capita have guns in the states versus anywhere else? and why do we have so many more shootings compared to anywhere else (...i guess cuz we have so many more guns, duh).

is it all due to the stereotypical macho/freedom-loving "don't tread on me" american psyche?

If I remember correctly, the relative number of guns per capita is similar in Switzerland (due to the nature of their army service, which allows people to have guns - even semi automatic guns I think, in their homes). Yet there was only one incidence in 2001 I believe in Switzerland which would qualify as a gunman running amok.

Yes, I think it must have got something to do with a widespread attitude towards gun use in the US.

john eden
04-10-2017, 11:53 AM
48% of the guns owned by civilians worldwide are in America.

America has 89 guns per 100 people (Switzerland has 46).

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/03/americas/us-gun-statistics/index.html

It is both the culture of gun ownership + mental health + general culture etc AND the availability of guns which is the issue.

Mr. Tea
04-10-2017, 12:22 PM
Wow - plenty of Latin American countries leave the USA in the dust when it comes to gun crime: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

Much of that will be due to North America's appetite for drugs, of course.

Corpsey
04-10-2017, 12:34 PM
Perhaps it's simply a side of America to which we are exposed via the media, but America seems more extreme than the UK in all sorts of ways - and the level of violence seems particularly extreme.

According to Wiki, 76% of all known serial killers in the 20th century were from the United States.

Some interesting speculations re: this here https://www.quora.com/Why-does-the-US-have-far-more-serial-killers-than-any-other-first-world-country

Of course, this could well be largely about population size. After all, Britain has produced its monsters (the Wests, Nielsen, Moors Murderers, etc.)

A side note: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2015/11/03/more-americans-than-ever-are-taking-prescription-drugs/?utm_term=.c530902f0fdc

To blame prescription drugs for these massacres would be a gross simplification, but some incidents (such as the Dark Knight Rises shooting) have been connected with the use of SSRIs like Sertraline.

Mr. Tea
04-10-2017, 01:08 PM
Of course, this could well be largely about population size. After all, Britain has produced its monsters (the Wests, Nielsen, Moors Murderers, etc.)


The UK's per-capita murder rate is pretty low, by global standards. The USA's is over five times higher. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

Leo
04-10-2017, 03:10 PM
US media have some of the fault here, i think. the alienation and paranoia -- not to mention the rise of trump/trumpism -- we see now is a product of 20+ years of fox news and its uglier offspring stoking the fears of an apparently easily swayed segment of the population. as p.t. barnum said, "there's a sucker born every minute". he meant it in regards to getting their money, but it applies to a people's political and social beliefs as well.

Mr. Tea
04-10-2017, 03:32 PM
Yeah, it's all about public perceptions of the overall levels of crime. People in many countries are far more likely to think there's more violent crime today than in the (recent) past, even where levels have remained stable or declined. The internet and the rise of 24-hour news (and non-news bullshit, of course) must have a lot to do with this.

In the USA in particular, violent crime has fallen by well over a third since it peaked in about 1993, but private gun ownership has continued to increase at the same rate it did during the 80s and early 90s, when violent crime actually was increasing:

Leo
04-10-2017, 04:05 PM
agree, tea, but the fear being stoked by some US media goes beyond crime. it's the fear of immigrants stealing their jobs, fear of a black president stealing their "american values", a fear of liberal/socialists college professors stealing the impressionable minds of the next generation, a fear of the coastal elites stealing their right to bear arms and mocking their religious beliefs, football players (!) showing a lack of patriotism, etc. etc.

the fear of "the other".

firefinga
04-10-2017, 05:20 PM
Yeah, it's all about public perceptions of the overall levels of crime. People in many countries are far more likely to think there's more violent crime today than in the (recent) past, even where levels have remained stable or declined. The internet and the rise of 24-hour news (and non-news bullshit, of course) must have a lot to do with this.

In the USA in particular, violent crime has fallen by well over a third since it peaked in about 1993, but private gun ownership has continued to increase at the same rate it did during the 80s and early 90s, when violent crime actually was increasing:

I am surprised by the linear increase in actual private gun ownership over the years. I am by no means surprised that the violent crime rate peaked during the Late Reagan and Bush senior years when the official policy on the poor was "fuck em, let them fend for themselves."

In fact, Trump seems to be even more "radical" in those terms, so expect a swift increase in that regard soon enough.

Mr. Tea
04-10-2017, 05:36 PM
US media have some of the fault here, i think. the alienation and paranoia -- not to mention the rise of trump/trumpism -- we see now is a product of 20+ years of fox news and its uglier offspring stoking the fears of an apparently easily swayed segment of the population. as p.t. barnum said, "there's a sucker born every minute". he meant it in regards to getting their money, but it applies to a people's political and social beliefs as well.

Oh sure, the crime thing is just one part of the overall picture - but a fairly big part of it, all the same, especially when it comes to resistance to any change in gun laws.

And while that's naturally home territory for Republicans and their voters, I bet an awful lot of Democrat voters would also say "yes" if you asked them "Is violent crime higher than it was a generation ago?" - although that's just a hunch on my part.

Leo
04-10-2017, 08:30 PM
i don't mean to dismiss the crime element, but there's been a growing number of people who fear the government. they fear the government will take away their rights, as symbolized by their guns. they want their arms in order to defend against tyranny.

sadmanbarty
04-10-2017, 10:35 PM
i don't mean to dismiss the crime element, but there's been a growing number of people who fear the government. they fear the government will take away their rights, as symbolized by their guns. they want their arms in order to to defend against tyranny.

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/files/IS3301_pp007-044_Stephan_Chenoweth.pdf

Leo
04-10-2017, 10:41 PM
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/22281806_328837214254191_2884606909227489436_n.jpg ?oh=fe9ccbe3aa643f86765848076f627388&oe=5A774AF2

luka
05-10-2017, 06:50 AM
Me And My Monkey
Robbie Williams
It was me and my monkey
Him with his dungarees and roller blades
Smoking filter tips reclining in the passenger seat of my supercharged jet black Chevrolet
He had the soft top down
He liked the wind in his face
He said "Son, you ever been to Vegas?'
I said "No" he said "That's where we're gonna go, you need a change of place"
And when we hit the strip with all the wedding chapels and the neon signs he said
"I left my wallet in El Segundo" and proceeded to take two grand of mine
We made tracks to the Mandalay Bay hotel
Asked the bell boy if he'd take me and my monkey as well
He looked in the passenger seat of my car and with a smile he said
"If your monkey's got that kind of money sir, and we've got a monkey bed"
Me and monkey
With a dream and a gun
Hoping my monkey
Don't point that gun at anyone
Me and monkey
Like Butch and the Sundance Kid
Trying to understand
Why he did what he did
Why he did what he did
And at the elevator I hit the 33rd floor
He had a room up top with a panoramic view it's like nothing you've ever seen before
He went to sleep in the bidet and when he awoke
He ran his little monkey fingers through the yellow pages
Called up escort services and ordered some oki doke
Forty minutes later there came a knock at the door
In walked this big, bad-ass baboon into my bedroom with 3 monkey whores
"Hi, my name is Sunshine.
These are my girls.
Lace my palm with silver baby oh yeah and they'll rock your world"
So I watched pay per view and polished my shoes and my gun
Was sticking on Kurt Cobain sing about lithium
There came and knocked at the door and in walked Sunshine
"What's up?"
"You better get your ass in here boy your monkey is having too much of a good time"
Me and my monkey
Drove in search of the sun
Me and my monkey
Don't point that gun at anyone
Me and my monkey
Like Billy the Kid
Trying to understand
Why he did what he did
Why he did what he did
Got tickets to see Sheena Easton
The monkey was high
Said it was a burning ambition to see her before he died
We left before encores
He couldn't sit still
Sheena was a blast baby
But my monkey was ill
When I played black jack
Kept hittin' 23
Couldn't help but notice this Mexican just staring at me
Or was it my monkey
I couldn't be sure
It's not like you've never seen a monkey in rollerblades and dungarees before
Now don't test my patience cause we're not about to run
That's a bad-ass monkey boy and he's packing a gun
"My name is Rodriguez" he says with death in his eye
"I've been chasing you for a long time amigos
And now your monkey is gonna die"
Me and my monkey
Drove in search of the sun
Me and my monkey
We don't want to kill no Mexican
But we got ten itchy fingers
One thing to declare
When the monkey is high
You do not stare
You do not stare
You do not stare
Looks like we got ourselves a Mexican stand off here boy
And I ain't about to run
Put your gun down boy
How did I get mixed up with this fucking monkey anyhow
Songwriters: Robert Peter Williams / Guy Antony Chambers

Mr. Tea
05-10-2017, 09:47 AM
Was better on FB, soz Luke.

luka
05-10-2017, 09:56 AM
its exactly the same words

firefinga
06-10-2017, 08:28 AM
One has to concede though that this Las Vegas incident is rather enigmatic - it doesn't fit the usual patterns, beginning with the age of the shooter.

Mr. Tea
06-10-2017, 09:45 AM
its exactly the same words

I know, I guess maybe it was just better the first time I saw it.