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craner
01-11-2016, 10:23 PM
So, I've got next week off, and will be watching this until the bitter end, or until I pass out surrounded by empty bottles and an over-spilling ash tray.

It's almost here folks. The end of the World as we know it.

This is the thread for the build-up, real-time election night gossip and gasps, and the messy aftermath.

Place your bets now.

craner
01-11-2016, 10:25 PM
(Someone had to do this, eh?)

HMGovt
01-11-2016, 10:58 PM
It's almost here folks. The end of the World as we know it.


Don't fret, it looks like Hillary is losing ;)

On the other hand, I did take delivery of a family pack of iosat potassium iodide pills last week.

Leo
01-11-2016, 11:33 PM
this could be close, scary as hell! clinton was never ahead by as much as some polls said, but she's definitely lost ground. i still have faith in the clinton ground game making the difference in key swing states, but it's going to be a lot harder to pull off than expected, or than it by all rights should be.

one potential silver lining about comey's latest email statement is it could motivate the democratic base to get out and vote. the clinton campaign has been working like crazy but the base seemed to have become a little comfortable and lazy, thinking she had an insurmountable lead.

droid
02-11-2016, 10:32 AM
Is there any argument against the assertion that the GOP in its current incarnation is the single most dangerous group in the entire history of humanity?

Actually, when was the last time that this wasnt true?

vimothy
02-11-2016, 10:40 AM
Isn't the current incarnation of the GOP an incoherent mess? What's so dangerous about them?

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 11:11 AM
Is there any argument against the assertion that the GOP in its current incarnation is the single most dangerous group in the entire history of humanity?

Actually, when was the last time that this wasnt true?

Dangerous for whom? For a good half-century or more at least three states and probably five have possessed the capability to render most or all of the Earth's surface uninhabitable, if that's what you're getting at.

droid
02-11-2016, 11:12 AM
Pro nuclear proliferation, pro use of nuclear weapons, pro conflict and resource war, refusal to even accept the existence of climate change, let alone do something about it.

Dangerous to the continued existence of the human race - the biggest threats to which are climate change and nuclear apocalypse.

Capability to destroy the planet and willingness (or even eagerness) to do so are very different things.

droid
02-11-2016, 11:16 AM
Incoherence aside, Trump represents the GOP, and his ideas on these subjects have been well documented.

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 11:18 AM
How on earth is the USA, post-WWII, any more "pro use of nuclear weapons" than any other state? Their last test was in 1992. North Korea is conducting tests as we speak and Russia held a nationwide nuclear training exercise last month!

And China's almost literally left the USA in the dust as the world's biggest driver of AGW for years now.

None of which makes America or the GOP any less bad, or the prospect of a Trump presidency any less terrifying, but let's have some perspective here.

sadmanbarty
02-11-2016, 11:20 AM
It's been rumoured that in an hour long intelligence briefing, Trump asked about using nukes 3 times.

droid
02-11-2016, 11:25 AM
Yes. Some perspective.


Trump said he might use nuclear weapons and questioned why we would make them if we wouldn’t use them

Trump said he was open to nuking Europe because it’s a “big place”

Trump said that “you want to be unpredictable” with nuclear weapons

Trump reiterated that it was important to be “unpredictable” with nuclear weapons

Trump said he wasn’t that worried about more countries getting nukes since “it’s not like, gee whiz, nobody has them”

Trump had no idea what the “nuclear triad” was

Trump said he’d be OK with a nuclear arms race in Asia

The time he said it didn’t matter if Saudi Arabia acquired nuclear weapons because “it’s going to happen anyway”

https://thinkprogress.org/9-terrifying-things-donald-trump-has-publicly-said-about-nuclear-weapons-99f6290bc32a#.z9wp1f4j0



On Wednesday’s Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough claimed Donald Trump asked a “foreign policy expert” who was advising him numerous times about “why can’t we use nuclear weapons.”

Prefacing his comments by saying he’d “be very careful here,” Scarborough said: “Several months ago, a foreign policy expert on the international level went to advise Donald Trump, and three times he asked about the use of nuclear weapons. Three times, he asked, at one point, ‘If we have them, we can’t we use them?’… Three times, in an hour briefing, ‘Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?’”


And so on...

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 12:00 PM
OK, Trump leading the party does change that. But he isn't president (yet...).

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 12:01 PM
Still, it hasn't stopped Pilger deciding he's less dangerous than Hillary Clinton (https://newmatilda.com/2016/03/23/john-pilger-why-hillary-clinton-is-more-dangerous-than-donald-trump/), lol.

Corpsey
02-11-2016, 12:37 PM
https://reelgingermoviefan.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/dead5.jpg

Where is our precognitive saviour?

Leo
02-11-2016, 01:46 PM
liberals here shifting into full bedwetter mode, as is their wont. not that their worry is unwarranted but geez, grow a backbone! ;)

firefinga
02-11-2016, 02:06 PM
OK, Trump leading the party does change that. But he isn't president (yet...).

Trump isn't leading the party, he has usurped it, with him the Alt Right.

The doommongery is very reminiscent of what had been said bout Reagan. Big difference though is, Reagan was an integral part of the republican party, whereas Trump isn't.

but then, as I've written before, I think Trump together with the alt right is changing the right wing political spectrum in the US fundamentally, if the alt right is able to maintain the current momentum.

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 02:08 PM
Sure. Trump as Republican presidential candidate, would have been a better way to put it, then.

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 02:12 PM
Weirdly enough I had a very long and incredibly vivid dream about being caught up in a nuclear war just last night.

firefinga
02-11-2016, 02:43 PM
Even if he's getting elected... won't matter much. The guy will be confronted with a highly skilled bureaucrats/technocrats who will steer him much into their direction. And bureaucracies basically have no other interest than to maintain their once aquired status, which will rule out the deployment of nuclear weapons (or precise, of strategic nuclear weapons).

The people who will likely suffer the most under a Prez Trump are the Joe Average types he is supposedly talking for/giving a voice. His isolationist "ideas" (you can't consider anything Trump has been saying to be a concise ideology) will possibly hurt them economically even more than a (relative) free trade regime that we have now.

As with any populist "movements" this said movement will likely crumble when confronted with reality. Question is, however, how much damage will have been done before the inevitable happens.

Leo
02-11-2016, 03:03 PM
most likely just a lot of BS and none of it will happen but yeah, this is what this election has come to.

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force
KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.


Energized by Trump’s candidacy and alarmed by his warnings of a “rigged election,” white nationalist, alt-right and militia movement groups are planning to come out in full force on Tuesday, creating the potential for conflict at the close of an already turbulent campaign season.

Neo-Nazi leader Andrew Anglin plans to muster thousands of poll-watchers across all 50 states. His partners at the alt-right website “the Right Stuff” are touting plans to set up hidden cameras at polling places in Philadelphia and hand out liquor and marijuana in the city’s “ghetto” on Election Day to induce residents to stay home. The National Socialist Movement, various factions of the Ku Klux Klan and the white nationalist American Freedom Party all are deploying members to watch polls, either “informally” or, they say, through the Trump campaign.

The Oath Keepers, a group of former law enforcement and military members that often shows up in public heavily armed, is advising members to go undercover and conduct “intelligence-gathering” at polling places, and Donald Trump ally Roger Stone is organizing his own exit polling, aiming to monitor thousands of precincts across the country.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

Mr. Tea
02-11-2016, 03:17 PM
Jesus fucking Christ! :eek:

vimothy
02-11-2016, 04:49 PM
The alt-right are internet trolls with little political significance outside of the febrile imagination of a few twenty-something, twitter-addicted journalists.

firefinga
02-11-2016, 05:54 PM
The alt-right are internet trolls with little political significance outside of the febrile imagination of a few twenty-something, twitter-addicted journalists.

By appointing Steve Bannon his chief campaign manager Trump put alt-right ideas right in the center of US mainstream politics.

firefinga
02-11-2016, 06:00 PM
most likely just a lot of BS and none of it will happen but yeah, this is what this election has come to.

White nationalists plot Election Day show of force
KKK, neo-Nazis and militias plan to monitor urban polling places and suppress the black vote.



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/suppress-black-vote-trump-campaign-230616

no offence, but handing out alcohol and marihuana isn't suppressing the black vote. If people can't stay off the booze and/or weed for at least a few hours on election-day, they probably should not vote anyways.

I agree though, this circus is a bonafide head-shaker.

vimothy
02-11-2016, 06:03 PM
By appointing Steve Bannon his chief campaign manager Trump put alt-right ideas right in the center of US mainstream politics.

Which ones?

firefinga
02-11-2016, 06:12 PM
Still, it hasn't stopped Pilger deciding he's less dangerous than Hillary Clinton (https://newmatilda.com/2016/03/23/john-pilger-why-hillary-clinton-is-more-dangerous-than-donald-trump/), lol.

Not surprising at all, and he's not alone there. After all for people like him, there is only one crime in international politics, and that is (military) intervention by the US and/or Israel and/or the UK. And Hillary is being perceived (with some right I might add) an interventionist - Trump at least pays lipservice to isolationism.

droid
02-11-2016, 06:24 PM
Wow, this thread went downhill fast. Craner will be disappointed.

firefinga
02-11-2016, 06:33 PM
Place your bets now.

Hillary will win this, by quite a margin.

Leo
02-11-2016, 06:35 PM
Wow, this thread went downhill fast. Craner will be disappointed.

how so? seems like relevant conversation.

HMGovt
03-11-2016, 10:32 AM
Who is #HectorMorenco? And what truth is there to any or all of this?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwT1Q2WW8AAeewQ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwT1SHoXAAAQsqW.jpg

luka
03-11-2016, 10:37 AM
my guess, plenty, although i doubt trump, the gop, deleted emails or the fbi are about to save you.

HMGovt
03-11-2016, 10:43 AM
My M.O. here is faux naif

Mr. Tea
03-11-2016, 10:49 AM
Damn those Marxist neoliberals! Damn them to heck!!

Corpsey
03-11-2016, 10:52 AM
Is it possible to be Marxist AND Neoliberal?

HMGovt
03-11-2016, 10:57 AM
Is it possible to be Marxist AND Neoliberal?

They mean Cultural Marxism of the Frankfurt School.
Guardian guide and debunk here https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/19/cultural-marxism-a-uniting-theory-for-rightwingers-who-love-to-play-the-victim

luka
03-11-2016, 11:22 AM
keep up lads

droid
03-11-2016, 11:28 AM
Decent article here with more details of Trump's nuclear policies and the limits of presidential power.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/09/26/president-trumps-first-term

firefinga
03-11-2016, 11:42 AM
Is it possible to be Marxist AND Neoliberal?

Well, another narrative of certain branches of right-wing thought at work here. For those people, Marxism and Neoliberalism (formerly known as "international capital" = "Jewish Wall Street") are both seen as first and foremost internationalist/globalist, work and especially international trade being crucial, not caring about "race" and therefore resulting in subversion of the nationalist market/pure racial base of a given Nation.

Both looking more alike than contradictory, and both attacking the nationalist core beliefs. At least in the minds of those people.

Mr. Tea
03-11-2016, 11:49 AM
Well, another narrative of certain branches of right-wing thought at work here. For those people, Marxism and Neoliberalism (formerly known as "international capital" = "Jewish Wall Street") are both seen as first and foremost internationalist/globalist, work and especially international trade being crucial, not caring about "race" and therefore resulting in subversion of the nationalist market/pure racial base of a given Nation.


Nothing new here. A central tenet of National Socialism was that both Marxism and capitalism were Jewish conspiracies.

vimothy
03-11-2016, 12:00 PM
Thomas Frank on the liberal elite: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/the-podesta-emails-show-who-runs-america-and-how-they-do-it


The emails currently roiling the US presidential campaign are part of some unknown digital collection amassed by the troublesome Anthony Weiner, but if your purpose is to understand the clique of people who dominate Washington today, the emails that really matter are the ones being slowly released by WikiLeaks from the hacked account of Hillary Clinton’s campaign chair John Podesta. They are last week’s scandal in a year running over with scandals, but in truth their significance goes far beyond mere scandal: they are a window into the soul of the Democratic party and into the dreams and thoughts of the class to whom the party answers.

The class to which I refer is not rising in angry protest; they are by and large pretty satisfied, pretty contented. Nobody takes road trips to exotic West Virginia to see what the members of this class looks like or how they live; on the contrary, they are the ones for whom such stories are written. This bunch doesn’t have to make do with a comb-over TV mountebank for a leader; for this class, the choices are always pretty good, and this year they happen to be excellent.

They are the comfortable and well-educated mainstay of our modern Democratic party. They are also the grandees of our national media; the architects of our software; the designers of our streets; the high officials of our banking system; the authors of just about every plan to fix social security or fine-tune the Middle East with precision droning. They are, they think, not a class at all but rather the enlightened ones, the people who must be answered to but who need never explain themselves....

luka
03-11-2016, 12:28 PM
the enlightened ones

148

sadmanbarty
03-11-2016, 01:15 PM
Thomas Frank on the liberal elite: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/31/the-podesta-emails-show-who-runs-america-and-how-they-do-it

I don't have a problem with the main body of the piece (essentially rich lobbyists have undue influence) but the ad hominem stuff is just infantile. At the end of the day Clinton's policies to increase health coverage, paid family leave and reduce childcare costs will help ordinary people (and of course Trump's combination of recession, job losses and tax increases won't). Pointing out that these people have a different lifestyle from the people they're trying to help isn't clever, useful or relevant.

vimothy
03-11-2016, 02:08 PM
these people have a different lifestyle from the people they're trying to help

A nicely euphemistic description of the American ruling class.

droid
03-11-2016, 02:34 PM
Did everyone hear the news that trump is a big fan of Steve Reich?

Leo
03-11-2016, 02:51 PM
yeah, i know, who cares what a dumb ass celeb thinks, etc., but i know more than a few people who share some of these views (also good for a laugh, which we could use right now...)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFOkBnYGfIM

droid
03-11-2016, 03:29 PM
Not unconvincing:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LFkN7QGp2c

droid
04-11-2016, 11:34 AM
Andrew Sullivan soaking his bed, and TBH, I cant fault his argument.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/andrew-sullivan-trump-america-and-the-abyss.html


The Republicans in Washington complemented this picture of crisis by a policy of calculated obstruction to every single measure a Democratic president has attempted, rendering the Congress so gridlocked that it has been incapable of even passing a budget without constitutional crisis, filling a vacant Supreme Court seat, or reforming a health-care policy in pragmatic fashion. They have risked the nation’s very credit rating to vent their rage. They have helped reduce the public support of the central democratic institution in American government, the Congress, to a consistently basement level never seen before — another disturbing analogy to the discredited democratic parliaments of the 1930s. The Republicans have thereby become a force bent less on governing than on destroying the very institutions that make democracy and the rule of law possible. They have not been conservative in any sane meaning of that term for many, many years. They are nihilist revolutionaries of the far right in search of a galvanizing revolutionary leader. And they have now found their man.

Leo
04-11-2016, 12:54 PM
Andrew Sullivan soaking his bed, and TBH, I cant fault his argument.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/andrew-sullivan-trump-america-and-the-abyss.html

he was on msnbc "hardball" last night predicting a trump victory. he is a bit OTT, but not without reason. she's still got the lead and the get-out-the-vote ground game but he's got the momentum, and we've still got four days left for one last "surprise" (wikileaks, fbi leak, terrorist attack, etc.) that could tip the scales.

droid
04-11-2016, 01:03 PM
I still hope Clinton will shade it, but I dont think his fears of the consequences of a Trump win are unjustified or hysterical.

Leo
04-11-2016, 01:06 PM
as a friend on FB said, "did you ever think you'd see the day where the FBI, the KKK, and the KGB all endorse the same candidate for President of the United States?"

yeah, "endorse" might not be the appropriate word but still...

vimothy
04-11-2016, 01:18 PM
Our politics have ceded the future to the market and Silicon Valley. The question of social organization, presumably, has been mostly solved by the wonks. Liberal democracies are increasingly convinced that there is no innovation in political thinking allowed. We simply adjust the levers of policy at appropriate times, and focus on atoning for past sins. The global elite is converging on economic integration, low trade barriers, universal benefits, light regulation, and the cultivation of a global class of politicians and plutocrats who socialize and groom each other and their children for continued benevolent rule. Sometimes, in their darker moments, they cede the future to China, thinking that some kind of autocratic capitalism might produce better trains and faster growing cities.

And again, this is not surprising, Two baby boomer candidates were almost always going to settle into the two default positions. One would represent those who felt they lost something of the vim and promise of their youth. And another would naturally represent those who are mostly satisfied with the work their generation has done, who generally admire the distribution of rewards in our society, but wouldn't mind more credit themselves.

A normal age would produce a culture of letters that recognizes this for what it is: exhaustion on a deep level.

Our politics are obsessed with the past because we aren't invested in the future the way a normal society should be. So we hardly imagine what we might build. We live on credit in the somewhat secure knowledge that our creditors can't collect even if they were to rob our graves. Like the Clintons, our elites live with dual incomes and one kid. And we search for ways to do good, when the getting's good for us too. Like Donald Trump, we're hoping to stick some nameless others with our moral and financial debt.

This pattern of life — a life oriented to no future at all — will end soon, because it is unsustainable. And because, if we can bear to look, it disgusts us.

http://theweek.com/articles/659087/election-that-forgot-about-future?utm_source=links&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=twitter

luka
04-11-2016, 01:46 PM
That's the line Adam Curtis has been pushing.

luka
04-11-2016, 01:47 PM
Where will you go when The Machine doesn't need you any more?

Leo
04-11-2016, 01:55 PM
considering how partisan US politics has become (GOP pledging to impeach hillary before she's even elected and to not even review her supreme court selections for her entire four-year term, etc.), i wonder if today's candidates feel there isn't any point in having a grand vision or big idea. i'm not condoning the small/backwards thinking he discusses here and it's indeed a sad indictment of political leadership, but it could be a natural reaction to facing an opposition bent on obstructionism and gridlock.

bless bernie sanders, but one of the reasons he lost the primary by over 4 million votes was his grand vision, while inspiring to a minority, was widely viewed as pie-in-the-sky by most voters. i sense "the new frontier" or "thousand points of light" would be perceived today as grandiose BS spin by skeptical/cynical voters who feel threatened by reduced employment opportunities and a changing demographic.

droid
04-11-2016, 01:57 PM
Trumps numbers seem to have stablised - down from 34% to 33.5%. Guess he's gotten all the Johnson voters he's gonna get.

droid
04-11-2016, 03:02 PM
Upshot giving Clinton 84%

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

firefinga
05-11-2016, 09:18 AM
bless bernie sanders, but one of the reasons he lost the primary by over 4 million votes was his grand vision, while inspiring to a minority, was widely viewed as pie-in-the-sky by most voters. i sense "the new frontier" or "thousand points of light" would be perceived today as grandiose BS spin by skeptical/cynical voters who feel threatened by reduced employment opportunities and a changing demographic.

Sanders "Grand vision" was basically a go back to the pre Thatcher/Reagenite times. He lost the primaries bc he is too old, too white, and too academic.

Still, his impact was very important to get some sanity back into that circus.

droid
05-11-2016, 01:22 PM
Good news for Clinton.

Black numbers up in Florida and Nevada. Latino numbers apparently through the roof.

droid
05-11-2016, 01:52 PM
Bad news for Clinton.

Dem numbers in North Carolina matching 2012, but Rep & Ind numbers up.

droid
05-11-2016, 03:11 PM
If Nevada flips, Clinton wins even if she loses NC and NH.

craner
06-11-2016, 08:44 PM
Two days to go until the global abyss.

craner
06-11-2016, 08:45 PM
When Trump wins, it will be one of the most dramatic days of our lifetimes.

droid
06-11-2016, 08:56 PM
Been following a lot of local swing state election dudes on twitter. Im now leaning towards a less tight win for Clinton than expected - though my record on US presidential elections is appalling.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:01 PM
Mine is appalling too. So there's hope yet!

craner
06-11-2016, 09:06 PM
If anybody outside of the US canvassers is honest, it is impossible to call. Just a lot of people on the ground very nervous apart from Trump canvassers who have consistently and confidently predicted a Trump landslide. These people can be both mad partisans but also the only ones who get a sense of what those non-declared, unpolled people are actually thinking.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:07 PM
This is what I experienced in 2015, canvassing for Labour, which is why I am nervous.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:20 PM
But just to re-iterate. That day when Trump wins will be...bedlam. The first time in our lifetime the global order has truly been ruptured. A confirmation of the decline of The West, 'Fall of the Roman Empire' historical proportions.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:21 PM
New Dark Ages

HMGovt
06-11-2016, 09:27 PM
A confirmation of the decline of The West, 'Fall of the Roman Empire' historical proportions.

But the other side perceive a Clinton victory in those terms too.

They're both right, but the Republic was lost when Bush 'won' in 2000.

droid
06-11-2016, 09:28 PM
Demographics are tilting towards Clinton though. I think (hope) a hidden Trump surge is a figment of the unthinking arrogance of his campaign - like the runup to the Gay marriage referendum here when there was near panic at the impression that the ultra-right Catholic rump had muddied the waters enough to queer the result - but it turned out that people weren't all cunts after all.

droid
06-11-2016, 09:30 PM
A Clinton win is basically business as usual. Trump supporters see this as a crucial election primarily for demographic reasons.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:34 PM
These people will not go away, even if Trump loses. If it's close it's still a disaster, frankly. But for America rather than the world, in the short term.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:36 PM
This is not GWB's fault, in some ways McCain has more responsibility for it by elevating Palin and energising the Tea Party tendency which has declined into the Trump rump. And in a larger way, globalisation has driven it.

droid
06-11-2016, 09:51 PM
Black turnout 'skyrocketing' in Florida.

craner
06-11-2016, 09:52 PM
The major difference between the old hardcore Tea Party people and the current Trumptons is that the Tea Party were Constitutional Originalists, with lots of cranky hanger-ons. The Trump Crowd are those hangers, plus the racists, the Rust Belt ex-Democrat whites, the young alt-right, the anti-PC women, the Clinton-haters...etc. Trump and this lot have no interest in the intricacies of the Constitution and its many amendments. They believe in the Strong Man who can Make America Great Again. It's not fascism, but it's a strain of authoritarianism that has much in common with the current Russian set-up. Therefore, how robust are the Founding Fathers? Which the Tea Party revere, but Trump has no respect or tome for?

craner
06-11-2016, 09:55 PM
Which is why the Republic could be facing its most severe test since the Civil War. As well as Europe, when NATO is demolished.

droid
06-11-2016, 10:23 PM
I think he ticks all of the boxes for fascism myself. Radical militant nationalism, demonisation of others based on ethnic/racial lines, mythologising the revitalisation of nation, open willingness to use violence to achieve political aims...

droid
06-11-2016, 10:24 PM
More early voting hispanics in Florida than total hispanic voters in 2012.

Leo
06-11-2016, 10:24 PM
COMEY!

"um, remember that thing? never mind."

Leo
06-11-2016, 10:41 PM
craner, hopefully some of these will settle your nerves a bit...

Latino voting surge rattles Trump campaign
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/latino-vote-surge-donald-trump-campaign-230804

Democrats widen lead over GOP in Florida early votes
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-230841

Wall Street Journal/NBC News national poll: Clinton 44%, Trump 40%
Washington Post/ABC News national poll: Clinton 48%, Trump 43%

craner
06-11-2016, 10:51 PM
Fascism is a military, war ideology. There is no evidence Trump has this yet. The opposite, in fact.

droid
06-11-2016, 10:56 PM
If she takes Nevada and Florida (and its looking that way), its game over.

droid
06-11-2016, 10:59 PM
Fascism is a military, war ideology. There is no evidence Trump has this yet. The opposite, in fact.

Thats a strangely narrow & misguided definition of fascism - and there's plenty of evidence to suggest Trump will not shy away from war - just not within the context we're familiar with. Not to hard to see a US abandonment of Europe to Russia with rapacious US action in the middle east and wider conflict with China.

firefinga
06-11-2016, 11:24 PM
I think he ticks all of the boxes for fascism myself. Radical militant nationalism, demonisation of others based on ethnic/racial lines, mythologising the revitalisation of nation, open willingness to use violence to achieve political aims...

Add to this the disdain the Trumpians show for (representative) democracy and its institutions.

luka
06-11-2016, 11:28 PM
I've seen craners library. Lots of books on fascism. 50% of books in his library are about fascism. He loves it.

firefinga
06-11-2016, 11:29 PM
Fascism is a military, war ideology. There is no evidence Trump has this yet. The opposite, in fact.

One of the key elements of fascism is the glorification of violence per se - of the four textbook cases of fascism (Nazi-Germany, Japan, Franco-Spain, Mussolini's Italy) Franco wasn't keen on military action outside of Spain, and Mussolini's army was a military debacle if there ever was one.

Use of violence for political gains, yes, absolutely. Military force in interstate conflict - not necessarily. Pseudo-fascist measures against the Trumpian enemies within the US borders - very likely.

droid
06-11-2016, 11:37 PM
I've seen craners library. Lots of books on fascism. 50% of books in his library are about fascism. He loves it.

That's why this is so puzzling. Maybe he just likes pictures of uniforms.

droid
06-11-2016, 11:40 PM
One of the key elements of fascism is the glorification of violence per se - of the four textbook cases of fascism (Nazi-Germany, Japan, Franco-Spain, Mussolini's Italy) Franco wasn't keen on military action outside of Spain, and Mussolini's army was a military debacle if there ever was one.

Use of violence for political gains, yes, absolutely. Military force in interstate conflict - not necessarily. Pseudo-fascist measures against the Trumpian enemies within the US borders - very likely.

He's talking about militaristic symbolism and the army as spear head of the will of the volk, embodied by its ultimate leader (I think).

firefinga
06-11-2016, 11:42 PM
The major difference between the old hardcore Tea Party people and the current Trumptons is that the Tea Party were Constitutional Originalists, with lots of cranky hanger-ons. The Trump Crowd are those hangers, plus the racists, the Rust Belt ex-Democrat whites, the young alt-right, the anti-PC women, the Clinton-haters...etc. Trump and this lot have no interest in the intricacies of the Constitution and its many amendments. They believe in the Strong Man who can Make America Great Again. It's not fascism, but it's a strain of authoritarianism that has much in common with the current Russian set-up. Therefore, how robust are the Founding Fathers? Which the Tea Party revere, but Trump has no respect or tome for?

Very good assessment. But then, a gloomy one too bc the genie of proto-fascism/authoritarianism is out of the bottle.The Tea Party were already breaking with the old GOP consensus (play the system, but stay within it), whereas the Trumpians appear to demand a new system, one built by their rules. A lot fo the right wing populist parties in Europe are watching this very closely.

craner
07-11-2016, 12:21 AM
Trump is kind of anti-war. Isolationist, protectionist. Hillary much more Hawkish on Russia. All the GOP foreign policy establishment on her side; the majority of neoconservatives voting for her, #nevertrump, National Review, Weekly Standard, Commentary, all anti-Trump

Mr. Tea
07-11-2016, 12:31 AM
Fascism is a military, war ideology. There is no evidence Trump has this yet. The opposite, in fact.

It would mean the end of humanitarian/"humanitarian" (delete applicable to taste) intervention, sure. OTOH, this is a man who is openly fascinated with - at times, seemingly all but aroused by - nuclear weapons, without having the slightest clue about the doctrine of weapon possession for the purpose of deterrence.

Has anyone got any idea where Trump stands on Israel and Saudi Arabia, out of interest? Not that I'm expecting him to have anything approaching a consistent position.

luka
07-11-2016, 10:48 AM
http://vigilantcitizen.com/featured/chairman-clintons-campaign-john-podesta-attended-occult-spirit-cooking-dinner-hosted-marina-abramovic/

droid
07-11-2016, 02:56 PM
Im gonna go all in and declare Nevada and Florida for Clinton, North Carolina close, but final polls leaning towards Trump.

firefinga
07-11-2016, 03:08 PM
Im gonna go all in and declare Nevada and Florida for Clinton, North Carolina close, but final polls leaning towards Trump.

Nevada had a considerabl influx of Hispanics the last couple of years - so it's not unlikely the "Bad Hombres" talk will cost him that one. Hopefully so.

Leo
07-11-2016, 03:11 PM
some wise pundits, even from the GOP, predicting clinton poised to finish in the 330-360 electoral vote range. while i certainly hope she kicks his ass to that degree, it just feels like a closer race. could be an illusion, romney campaign was convinced they had surged at the end, had the momentum, etc., and were genuinely shocked when obama won with 332 electoral votes and a 4% margin.

btw, remind me to never again go on Facebook during any future presidential election year. good lord, the level of stupidity (on both right and left), verbose uneducated opining and pigheadedness is depressing. unlike here. :)

firefinga
07-11-2016, 03:26 PM
btw, remind me to never again go on Facebook during any future presidential election year. good lord, the level of stupidity (on both right and left), verbose uneducated opining and pigheadedness is depressing. unlike here. :)

Well, it's FarceBook - what did u expect? :p

vimothy
07-11-2016, 03:36 PM
Excellent (long) article in the New Yorker by George Packer: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/hillary-clinton-and-the-populist-revolt

Leo
07-11-2016, 04:08 PM
the dow up 300 points at 11:00 am ET the day after comey's second announcement. considering financial experts have predicted a steep downturn if trump wins, it appears the market is speaking in anticipation.

Corpsey
07-11-2016, 05:18 PM
Excellent (long) article in the New Yorker by George Packer: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/hillary-clinton-and-the-populist-revolt

Ah, thanks, I was going to link this NPR interview with Packer http://www.npr.org/2016/11/03/500457909/the-dangerous-volatile-game-trump-plays-with-the-white-working-class

Leo
07-11-2016, 05:42 PM
fyi, ny times dropped the paywall today thru nov 9, unlimited free access to all articles.

Leo
07-11-2016, 06:19 PM
i've never created a poll here, just tried to figure it out but failed miserably. does anyone want to create one for the clinton/trump/johnson/stein? not much time to vote and i have a good guess who will win but just curious to see how it goes.

craner
07-11-2016, 07:55 PM
Head says Clinton. Guts are doing somersaults. I call Trump.

craner
07-11-2016, 10:05 PM
Max Boot:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/06/this-lifetime-gop-voter-is-with-her-why-republicans-should-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

craner
07-11-2016, 10:06 PM
David Frum:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/506207/?client=ms-android-samsung

Leo
07-11-2016, 10:15 PM
awesome!

President Obama Is Ready for a Postelection Cyberwar With Russia


In early October, days after the Obama administration acknowledged a belief that the Russian government is trying to influence the presidential election by hacking Democrats and releasing their emails, the White House said President Obama was considering a “proportional” response against the Kremlin.

Nearly a month later, the New York Times reports that the president has put off that response until after the election “to avoid the appearance that politics influenced his decision and to avoid provoking Russian counterstrikes while voting is underway.”

But once the election is over, all of that could change. Or Obama could leave the responsibility with his successor. Either way, the response appears to be coming. If Obama decides to engage in a cyberwar with Russia, his instincts “are to deal with the problem by developing new norms of international behavior or authorizing covert action rather than direct confrontation,” the Times says.

What might that covert action entail? NBC News has some hints. In an article published Friday, it revealed that the U.S. has “penetrated Russia’s electric grid, telecommunications networks and the Kremlin’s command system.” If Russia interferes with the election Tuesday, the U.S. is poised to strike.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/obama-is-ready-for-a-postelection-cyberwar-with-russia.html

vimothy
07-11-2016, 10:57 PM
Moar (memetic) moral panic: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/04/political-memes-2016-election-hillary-clinton-donald-trump

vimothy
07-11-2016, 11:10 PM
The conclusion that follows from such sizzling philippics is that anybody, literally anybody, wearing an “R” by his name should be preferred to the demonic Clinton.

On the other side of this coin are the exaggerated media attacks on Republican nominees like Mitt Romney and John McCain: http://www.salon.com/2016/11/07/bill-maher-liberals-cried-wolf-about-mitt-romney-now-they-face-a-genuine-fascist/

droid
07-11-2016, 11:55 PM
Clinton win, 285-300 college votes.

droid
08-11-2016, 12:06 AM
Though if bombs start going off at polling stations, all bets are off.

Mr. Tea
08-11-2016, 10:59 AM
Though if bombs start going off at polling stations, all bets are off.

God, you can just imagine him holding up his little hands, index fingers skywards, and putting on his most pious face - "Nothing to do with me! Probably a false flag operation anyway!" - after months of all but explicitly threatening civil war.

droid
08-11-2016, 04:35 PM
Looks like the Dems might take the senate as well.

Leo
08-11-2016, 04:56 PM
Looks like the Dems might take the senate as well.

that's a tough call right now, though. probably dependent on clinton's get out the vote machine, a big Dem turnout could do the trick for down ballot races.

droid
08-11-2016, 04:57 PM
“We are seeing tremendous disruption at the polls,” said the Leadership Conference’s Wade Henderson. “This is maybe the most chaotic election faced by voters of color in the last 50 years – it’s a perfect storm for voter disenfranchisement.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/nov/08/us-election-2016-polls-trump-clinton-results-live

Leo
08-11-2016, 05:16 PM
also long lines, a blue state friend was in line for about two hours this morning and it wasn't even a "chaotic" polling place. it's due to volume of voters, perhaps people are intent on making a statement.

craner
08-11-2016, 10:34 PM
And, we're off...

craner
08-11-2016, 11:54 PM
Trump isn't Hitler or even Mussolini:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/03/10/whos-a-fascist/#7db7a332795f

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.forbes.com/sites/michaelledeen/2016/05/19/nobody-knows-anything-about-fascism/?client=ms-android-samsung

Just a little corrective from somebody who knows what he's talking about, a student of Renzo de Felice and George Mosse.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:12 AM
Early UK coverage dull as always, in the old days you could at least expect an entertaining Christopher Hitchens cameo.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:12 AM
As usual I will be hopelessly drunk before anything important happens.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:14 AM
Darling, we knew GWB wasn't going to vote for The Donald. Old news, not "extraordinary".

craner
09-11-2016, 12:15 AM
I've been quoting Ledeen against Droid for over ten years now, it's an old, heart-warming dynamic.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:18 AM
I love the Deep South. It's not full of rednecks. It has opera houses and modern art museums, incredible food and beautiful scenery. Lynyrd Skynyrd are an underrated band.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:23 AM
I've been quoting Ledeen against Droid for over ten years now, it's an old, heart-warming dynamic.

No, hes not a Hitler or a Mussolini - and why would he be? Hes a Ur-fascist.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:24 AM
Why arent you watching CNN, or Fox, or Alex Jones?

craner
09-11-2016, 12:25 AM
He's an authoritarian chump, a fraud, a fool. Doesn't deserve the glorified hyperbole of fascism.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:27 AM
I'm cheap, only have Freeview on my TV and don't currently own a computer.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:28 AM
Trump isn't Hitler or even Mussolini

It's getting hard to keep up with all of the Nazis at the moment (Amber Rudd, the Daily Mail, Donald Trump).

droid
09-11-2016, 12:28 AM
I see what you mean. He doesnt have the dignity and noble bearing of Benito or Adolf.

Leo
09-11-2016, 12:29 AM
I love the Deep South. It's not full of rednecks. It has opera houses and modern art museums, incredible food and beautiful scenery. Lynyrd Skynyrd are an underrated band.

democrats will soon flip georgia blue (if clinton doesn't this year) with the demographic growth of atlanta and suburbs (similar to pennsylvania with philly and suburbs).

droid
09-11-2016, 12:33 AM
Trump Advisor: "It will be a miracle if we win"

craner
09-11-2016, 12:36 AM
I feel like Droid could've at least bothered reading the two articles before commenting, though. The thrust being: a strong man with mobs is not enough to define a Fascist. Ledeen's short essays are perfunctory but make important distinctions in their brevity.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:38 AM
You can't import comparisons to European Fascism into American politics without looking like a fool. Populism, yes; Fascism...not so much.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:39 AM
And Trump is not even a strongman (yet). He's just a demagogue.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:41 AM
Exactly.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:41 AM
Im not turning my adblocker off to read Leeden.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:42 AM
And a LOSER!

droid
09-11-2016, 12:42 AM
Trump ticks almost all of the boxes. The foolish thing is to assume that European fascism is the only variety.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:43 AM
No, you're wrong on this one, Droid.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:43 AM
And Trump is not even a strongman (yet). He's just a demagogue.

I feel it would be self-evident to point out that this was also true of the European fascists before they gained power.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:44 AM
No, you're wrong on this one, Droid.

:poop:

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:44 AM
I don't think that's true, though.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:46 AM
No, because they had well-defined policy platforms and organised movements behind them. Again, you could read the literature. Or the Ledeen articles you blocked. But, ah, you blocked them.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:47 AM
Mein Kampf? The Italian Fascist 'New Man'?

craner
09-11-2016, 12:48 AM
Ideology, aesthetics?

droid
09-11-2016, 12:48 AM
Forbes doesnt let you view anything without turning off ad block. I didnt block him. Probably read them anyway.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:49 AM
Don't think you have.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:49 AM
"It is not easy, for instance, to fit Germany and Japan into the same framework, and it is even harder with some of the small states which are describable as Fascist. It is usually assumed, for instance, that Fascism is inherently warlike, that it thrives in an atmosphere of war hysteria and can only solve its economic problems by means of war preparation or foreign conquests. But clearly this is not true of, say, Portugal or the various South American dictatorships. Or again, antisemitism is supposed to be one of the distinguishing marks of Fascism; but some Fascist movements are not antisemitic. Learned controversies, reverberating for years on end in American magazines, have not even been able to determine whether or not Fascism is a form of capitalism. But still, when we apply the term ‘Fascism’ to Germany or Japan or Mussolini's Italy, we know broadly what we mean."

craner
09-11-2016, 12:55 AM
Indeed, don't know the quote, but Italian fascism was not anti-semitic initially, but the war ideology, anti-Communism, anti-enlightenment liberalism, revolutionary right wing populism was common to all those regimes of the Fascist International. Japan wasn't necessarily 'fascist' but an extreme form of conservative imperialism.

droid
09-11-2016, 12:55 AM
aesthetics

lol. Again with the uniforms. Face it Craner, youre a fascism snob who cant bear the thought that the face of 21st century totalitarianism is day-glo orange.

craner
09-11-2016, 12:57 AM
Eh?

craner
09-11-2016, 01:01 AM
Seriously, wtf?

droid
09-11-2016, 01:05 AM
Quote Originally Posted by luka View Post
I've seen craners library. Lots of books on fascism. 50% of books in his library are about fascism. He loves it.

That's why this is so puzzling. Maybe he just likes pictures of uniforms.

...

craner
09-11-2016, 01:05 AM
I thought you guys, for one thing, didn't like the term 'totalitarianism' because it conflated fascism and communism?

I'm a right wing Labour social democrat. If you're trying to paint me as a Fascist on Luka's prompting, good luck.

droid
09-11-2016, 01:08 AM
lol, no calm down. Im just saying you like the uniforms.

craner
09-11-2016, 01:09 AM
Oh well, snap. Luke clearly ignored all the biographies of Labour and Tory politicians in my library, plus the Marxist and Continental Theory. You can read books you don't necessarily agree with. It's called 'reading'.

droid
09-11-2016, 01:10 AM
You, of all people should know not to take anything he says seriously.

droid
09-11-2016, 01:11 AM
Florida looking close at the moment.

craner
09-11-2016, 01:11 AM
Calm down? You called me a Fascist, you dick. You'd have gone berserk if I'd done that to you!

craner
09-11-2016, 01:13 AM
Mind you, I probably have.

craner
09-11-2016, 01:13 AM
It's been a long and complicated relationship.

droid
09-11-2016, 01:15 AM
Tempted as I am to milk this whilst youre obviously vulnerable... But no, I didnt call you a fascist. Youre one of the least fascist warmongers I know.

craner
09-11-2016, 01:17 AM
A genuine non-fascist war-monger?

droid
09-11-2016, 01:17 AM
48.5% each in Duvall with 87% of the votes in. If Clinton takes it, she's won Florida

craner
09-11-2016, 01:18 AM
Come on Hillary!

droid
09-11-2016, 01:19 AM
A genuine non-fascist war-monger?

Lets just say that I dont think you deserve the glorified hyperbole of fascism.

Slothrop
09-11-2016, 01:22 AM
Is it the ideology that lets him down, or the aesthetics?

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:03 AM
Still looking close.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:19 AM
Texas didn't happen for Clinton.

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 02:23 AM
currency markets are taking a position

USD vs Peso http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MXN&view=12h

vs Yen http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=JPY&view=12h

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:25 AM
"Our Upshot forecast now has Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency down to 59 percent. That’s down from 85 percent." (From the NYT's liveblog.)

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:30 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 02:31 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwyXsA2WIAA0JIO.jpg

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:34 AM
Pfft!

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:35 AM
NYT now have Trump with 53% of winning.

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 02:36 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwyYbjcXgAAexim.jpg

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:37 AM
"Trump is favored in our forecast for the first time tonight, and all year." (NYT's Nate Cohn)

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:38 AM
What happened to Craner?

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 02:47 AM
nodded off.

meanwhile, at the Latvian border...

http://i.imgur.com/EiZOiYc.gif

vimothy
09-11-2016, 02:59 AM
I should really be doing the same but it's too dramatic.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 03:11 AM
"This is the insane culmination of stuff @reihan and I started writing about ten years ago and I cannot believe it's happening." (Ross Douthat)

baboon2004
09-11-2016, 03:23 AM
has the NYT swingometer just exceeded a 80% chance of winning for Trump?! Dear god.

watching this on tv and watching it on the internet are two totally different experiences though - how is the tv coverage so far behind the massive story here?

padraig (u.s.)
09-11-2016, 03:29 AM
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiuuuuuuck

baboon2004
09-11-2016, 03:46 AM
a pretty fair summation of the situation

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 04:04 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwysh9ZUQAE3eKI.jpg

Leo
09-11-2016, 05:50 AM
history in the making. just not in the way people expected.

firefinga
09-11-2016, 06:00 AM
So the (white) working class is voting for the candidate Who will prolonge tax cuts for the rich and weaken workers rights even more. Utter brilliance, they deserve the hardship they gonna reap for this

craner
09-11-2016, 06:08 AM
Just woke up.

Fucking hell.

craner
09-11-2016, 06:10 AM
I told you this would happen!

firefinga
09-11-2016, 06:40 AM
You'll see a ratrace very quickly among the ."moderate" republicans to get behind the Trumpians. A sick spectacle

firefinga
09-11-2016, 07:06 AM
Obama's "legacy" in the dust as well.

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 07:14 AM
Somebody hit the reset button.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 07:15 AM
Crazy.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 07:33 AM
Craner calls it again.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 07:44 AM
Trump has laid both the GOP and the Democratic Party to waste.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 08:04 AM
Now he squares off against the American deep state and the liberal international order.

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 09:27 AM
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n20/eliot-weinberger/who-wont-be-voting-for-trump

'Trump has tweeted that homicide statistics show that 81 per cent of murdered whites are killed by blacks. According to the FBI, 82 per cent of murdered whites are killed by whites.'

Trump: ‘I will get rid of gun-free zones on schools, and – you have to – and on military bases. My first day, it gets signed, OK? My first day. There’s no more gun-free zones.’

Trump (on sexually transmitted diseases): ‘I’ve been so lucky in terms of that whole world. It is a dangerous world out there – it’s scary, like Vietnam. Sort of like the Vietnam era. It is my personal Vietnam. I feel like a great and very brave soldier.’ (Trump received a physical deferment from the draft during the Vietnam War because of a problem with his foot, although he can no longer remember which foot. He was a football, squash and tennis player at the time.)

Trump: ‘I’m good at war. I’ve had a lot of wars of my own. I’m really good at war. I love war in a certain way. But only when we win.’

Trump: ‘When the students poured into Tiananmen Square, the Chinese government almost blew it. Then they were vicious, they were horrible, but they put it down with strength. That shows you the power of strength.’

luka
09-11-2016, 10:08 AM
I love the Deep South. It's not full of rednecks. It has opera houses and modern art museums, incredible food and beautiful scenery. Lynyrd Skynyrd are an underrated band.

Couldn't have been more wrong.

droid
09-11-2016, 10:14 AM
Hats off to Craner. Florida was looking bad when I went to bed, but this is a stunning result. That 3% margin of error went against Clinton nearly everywhere.

I guess now we'll see if Trump really is a fascist or was just pretending to be one to win votes.

luka
09-11-2016, 10:20 AM
Plus whether vimothy is right in thinking Trump will be battling the deep state or whether the deep state is throwing it's collective stetson in the air and wooping. FBI played a part (non-decisive, but not insignificant) in trumps victory. Craner just had a hunch about one horse in a two horse race. Not inclined to pat him on the back.

droid
09-11-2016, 10:23 AM
Plus whether vimothy is right in thinking Trump will be battling the deep state or whether the deep state is throwing it's collective stetson in the air and wooping. FBI played a part (non-decisive, but not insignificant) in trumps victory. Craner just had a hunch about one horse in a two horse race. Not inclined to pat him on the back.

It was a 3/1 chance, but he had the cojones to completely ignore all the available data and go with his gut, so you have to give him something.

droid
09-11-2016, 10:24 AM
It's like Iraq in '03. An appalling decision everyone knew would have disastrous global consequences but which you were entirely helpless to prevent.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 10:25 AM
The American political and media class are wrong about almost everything. It makes sense to bet against them.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 10:29 AM
On the plus side: LOLs at liberals in my timeline.

On the minus: Potential global upheaval/depression/war.

So, swings and roundabouts.

(...)

What’s slightly galling is the lack of self-reflection from people who played a huge part in this. It makes me sad how ruthlessly the US media tore apart a gentleman like Mitt Romney, how they’ve cried wolf repeatedly and how the term ‘white’ has become used as a term of insult in the identity-politics obsessed US media. Tell people over and over again that they are moral deviants tainted by ancestral guilt who will soon be a minority in their own country – and deserve it – what’d do you expect?

(...)

Trump is also the triumph of identity politics. For years the punditry have been saying that the GOP is finished because America is becoming more diverse, failing to see that since the Democrats win through identity politics, then Republicans could also play that game. Back in 2000 the blogger Steve Sailer observed that the Republicans could win with the low-hanging fruit of a white middle-class increasingly alienated by the Democratic Party’s ‘coalition of the fringes’, and he seems to have been proved right.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-played-identity-politics-game-won/

droid
09-11-2016, 10:34 AM
Shouldve listened to Chomsky.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwzsYfmXAAAP7J3.jpg

droid
09-11-2016, 10:35 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwz6vAMXgAA6MKS.jpg

droid
09-11-2016, 10:36 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwy5_aVVQAEZnQ-.jpg

firefinga
09-11-2016, 10:37 AM
You'll see it was the disappointed white working class plus the absent black vote (at least partly bc they didn't Profit from Obama's presidency ) that pushed Trump over the edge. Yeah, well done - that "Statement against the liberal elite" put the illiberal elite into Power.

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 10:38 AM
Chomsky OTM except for the 'honest' part. Though Trump is arguably honest about being a crook.

Mr. Tea
09-11-2016, 10:39 AM
I suppose congratulations are in order, however begrudging.

http://www.dissensus.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=155&d=1478687960

droid
09-11-2016, 10:44 AM
Chomsky OTM except for the 'honest' part. Though Trump is arguably honest about being a crook.

Yeah, bit of his optimistic faith in humanity shining through there, though it is from 2010.

Mr. Tea
09-11-2016, 10:45 AM
Chomsky OTM except for the 'honest' part. Though Trump is arguably honest about being a crook.

I read something somewhere about how Trump has succeeded because, while he lies through his teeth all the time, he does sometimes tell the truth, and they're very uncomfortable truths for the establishment. When he says Clinton is in Wall Street's pocket, that's just obviously, demonstrably true. Whereas he isn't in anyone's pocket, because he has the sort of wealth that makes him the pocket that other people are in.

droid
09-11-2016, 10:46 AM
The election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is nothing less than a tragedy for the American republic, a tragedy for the Constitution, and a triumph for the forces, at home and abroad, of nativism, authoritarianism, misogyny, and racism. Trump’s shocking victory, his ascension to the Presidency, is a sickening event in the history of the United States and liberal democracy. On January 20, 2017, we will bid farewell to the first African-American President—a man of integrity, dignity, and generous spirit—and witness the inauguration of a con who did little to spurn endorsement by forces of xenophobia and white supremacy. It is impossible to react to this moment with anything less than revulsion and profound anxiety.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/an-american-tragedy-donald-trump

firefinga
09-11-2016, 10:55 AM
Hats off to Craner. Florida was looking bad when I went to bed, but this is a stunning result. That 3% margin of error went against Clinton nearly everywhere.

I guess now we'll see if Trump really is a fascist or was just pretending to be one to win votes.

Like any populist he'll fuck up things probably very quickly, the Problem just will be how many casualties on the inevitable way to self-destruction

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 10:57 AM
I wonder if Trump's links with Russian hackers will be exposed to a more damaging extent in the next few months?

And what of all these charges against him for sexual assault?

droid
09-11-2016, 10:59 AM
Quietly dropped last week due to death threats.

firefinga
09-11-2016, 11:01 AM
I wonder if Trump's links with Russian hackers will be exposed to a more damaging extent in the next few months?

And what of all these charges against him for sexual assault?

The brutal truth :
Doesnt mater

droid
09-11-2016, 11:07 AM
On the plus side, a nuclear winter may be the only thing that will save us from being boiled alive by climate change.

luka
09-11-2016, 11:07 AM
Like any populist he'll fuck up things probably very quickly, the Problem just will be how many casualties on the inevitable way to self-destruction

Berlusconi kept winning. Mind you he led an impoverished peasant state with no global influence

firefinga
09-11-2016, 11:14 AM
Ah before I forget, good Job, Mr. Ass-ange

HMGovt
09-11-2016, 11:27 AM
On the plus side, a nuclear winter may be the only thing that will save us from being boiled alive by climate change.

Sorry, with the later generation of sub-megaton yield airburst warheads any nuclear winter is likely to be short-lived. The model's Carl Sagan et al used weren't very good.

droid
09-11-2016, 11:36 AM
Sorry, with the later generation of sub-megaton yield airburst warheads any nuclear winter is likely to be short-lived. The model's Carl Sagan et al used weren't very good.

lol. Dont take away the one sliver lining.

Actually - it seems like we're still good as long as there's total war between Russia & US.


This larger number of firestorms, which are not, in of themselves modeled, are presented as causing nuclear winter conditions as a result of the smoke inputted into various climate models, with the depths of severe cooling lasting for as long as a decade, summer drops in average temperature by about 20 °C (36 °F) in core agricultural regions of the US, Europe, and China, and by as much as 35 °C (63 °F) in Russia.[8] This cooling was produced due to a 99% reduction in the natural solar radiation reaching the surface of the planet in the first few years, gradually clearing over several decades.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

Fingers crossed!

droid
09-11-2016, 12:08 PM
The fucking Democrats.

Sanders wouldve beaten him. Even Biden could probably have won.

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 12:10 PM
I'm seeing this framed by right-wingers as the people striking a blow against the establishment, but looking at Trump's actual voting base it seems more like it's the other way around. The establishment being the white middle class America, striking a blow against the ascendant minorities.

Trump has marketed himself as a man of the working people so effectively that even his enemies believe it.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:35 PM
I'm seeing this framed by right-wingers as the people striking a blow against the establishment, but looking at Trump's actual voting base it seems more like it's the other way around. The establishment being the white middle class America, striking a blow against the ascendant minorities.

Where are the figures? That seems counter-intuitive (although perhaps not if you're defining the establishment as "white middle class America").

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 12:39 PM
I was referring to these figures, and the ones showing support going along race lines. Presume they're from pre-election polls.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwz6vAMXgAA6MKS.jpg

I've seen these doing the rounds, but I'll need a source on them!

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:43 PM
That doesn't disaggregate across ethnicity.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:45 PM
Reality intrudes:

156

Corpsey
09-11-2016, 12:46 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwy5_aVVQAEZnQ-.jpg

These do.

luka
09-11-2016, 12:47 PM
Would you have voted Trump Vimothy?

luka
09-11-2016, 12:48 PM
Just out of interest

Mr. Tea
09-11-2016, 12:49 PM
Trump Vimothy

Now that would have been an interesting ticket!

sadmanbarty
09-11-2016, 12:50 PM
Would you have voted Trump Vimothy?

Abstained?

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:51 PM
But those don't disaggregate across income. You need a table that does both to see how strong Trump's support among the "white working class" is.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 12:52 PM
Assuming you're defining them by their income. (Many commenters seem to defining working class by the absence of a degree.)

droid
09-11-2016, 12:54 PM
I was referring to these figures, and the ones showing support going along race lines. Presume they're from pre-election polls.



I've seen these doing the rounds, but I'll need a source on them!

Numbers are all based on exit polls and are on CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/president

droid
09-11-2016, 12:56 PM
Seems Clinton on course to win popular vote. The final kick in the teeth.

sadmanbarty
09-11-2016, 12:59 PM
I can rest easy knowing that the next president won't be using a private email server.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 01:01 PM
I wouldn't have voted for Trump, he's too unstable and repellent a person. But I can understand why people did.

sadmanbarty
09-11-2016, 01:01 PM
I wouldn't have voted for Trump, he's too unstable and repellent a person. But I can understand why people did.

Voted for Hilary?

Mr. Tea
09-11-2016, 01:08 PM
Seems Clinton on course to win popular vote. The final kick in the teeth.

I read something recently that explained how the weighting (in terms of electoral college votes) is by no means uniformly fair, and that it consistently over-represents the smallest states (mostly rural/small town, generally less diverse, overwhelmingly conservative) relative to the larger states (which contain most of the big cities and have a much greater concentration of non-whites, non-Christians, graduates, queer people etc. etc.). Will post it here if I can find it.

Edit: for a start, each state gets two Senators, which seems fucking ridiculous, considering the biggest state has 66 times the population of the smallest!

droid
09-11-2016, 01:11 PM
Yeah, the college is antiquated and deeply flawed. Any system which allows the person with the most votes to lose should go in the bin.

droid
09-11-2016, 01:12 PM
Hardline clerics in Iran rubbing their hands at the thoughts of a nuclear arsenal to call their own.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 01:25 PM
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/trump-winning-rises-falls-status.html

Leo
09-11-2016, 01:46 PM
Can we trust polling at all anymore? Or, as mentioned, perhaps it was the fluke case of most battleground states being within the margin of error and ALL of the error went in Trump's direction.

Our best hope is that Trump's not really into doing the hard work of being president and doesn't run for reelection, so it'll be "only" four years. Of course, that also means super conservative Mike Pence will actually BE president for the next four years and would run in 2020. Maybe if Trump upsets enough people in the next few years, Democrats can win back congressional seats in 2018.

Either way, we're screwed on the Supreme Court and healthcare at the very least. Sad!

you
09-11-2016, 01:47 PM
"Yo, Vladman! Can u fwrd me Surkov's number? Thnx c u soon. DT xcx"
157

droid
09-11-2016, 01:52 PM
Can we trust polling at all anymore? Or, as mentioned, perhaps it was the fluke case of most battleground states being within the margin of error and ALL of the error went in Trump's direction.

Swing states were all in the margin of error, but Michigan? Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Way out by 30 or more points.

vimothy
09-11-2016, 01:58 PM
Amusing that when members of the political class poll the public to see how they think, they consistently get back numbers that reflect only their own prejudices.

droid
09-11-2016, 02:04 PM
Generally speaking, that simply isnt true.

http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/fb7l0hgt5kgmzyn3mlgsvg.gif

Mr. Tea
09-11-2016, 02:06 PM
It's obvious. They should just ask Craner.

droid
09-11-2016, 02:11 PM
Hes the next Paul the Octopus.