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View Full Version : Is voting for the far-right a form of gambling?



richwill
21-04-2017, 10:15 AM
This might be incoherent or bleeding obvious, it's just some observations tied together to make one big generalisation. I'm always very interested in thoughtful feedback https://infinite-coincidence.com/2017/04/21/is-the-rise-of-the-far-right-a-form-of-gambling/

luka
21-04-2017, 10:44 AM
i suppose if i were you id contribute to the forum a bit more and chill out with the self-promotion. just saying like.

richwill
21-04-2017, 10:55 AM
i suppose if i were you id contribute to the forum a bit more and chill out with the self-promotion. just saying like.

Fair point well made.

luka
21-04-2017, 11:00 AM
Thanks for listening. Welcome aboard etc

firefinga
21-04-2017, 11:29 AM
While there are several motives for voting for right wing parties, and skimming through your link I'd say it's more referring to the right wing populists (of course we have to deal with blurry lines here) of late, I wouldn't call it "gambling". Yes, there are clearly many people pretty desperate out there voting for those populists simply bc they have the impression their needs are not being met by any other parties/politicians right now - the (in)famous "deplorables". They might be naive to some extent, or clearly vote for the "lesser evil", at least according to their personal situation.

But a great deal of those populists' voters are negative, fear-ridden people with a basically destructive mindset.

droid
21-04-2017, 11:39 AM
This seems as good a thread to take the temperature of national populism.

Austrian rejection of Hofer, Dutch rejection of Wilders, AFD falling to pieces (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/21/germays-afd-party-lurching-further-right-as-leader-pulls-out-of-election) in Germany, Le Pen, I dont think will succeed in France.

Some of these have been close, but Brexit/Trump seem to be outliers pushed over the line by some fairly special circumstances.

Centrists and the EU have a chance now to get their shit together before the climate crisis really hits. Defeating fascism means pulling the centre to the left, and that falls to all of us.

Brits need to hold their nose and vote for labour and greens despite the legitimate concerns over both.

firefinga
21-04-2017, 12:18 PM
Especially the Trump victory and the following 24-7 ongoing show of incompetence *might* have deterred some people in the Netherlands actually voting for Wilders, a very similar type to Trump (and the other populists).

yyaldrin
21-04-2017, 01:10 PM
Especially the Trump victory and the following 24-7 ongoing show of incompetence *might* have deterred some people in the Netherlands actually voting for Wilders, a very similar type to Trump (and the other populists).

May I point out that Wilders actually won some extra seats last election? And that the party who got the most votes (VVD) had been running a campaign similar of that of Wilders. "@AkwugoEmejulu: Wilders was beaten into 3rd place because his xenophobic platform was cynically co-opted by mainline parties". I think it's quite worrying that we have set the bar so low.

firefinga
21-04-2017, 01:16 PM
May I point out that Wilders actually won some extra seats last election?

Well, but he was supposed to win the majority. All the right wing cheerleaders were screaming it from their virtual rooftops (=youtube, twitter etc), and the media outlets were reporting that possibility as well.

Of course, the "but he won some extra seats" argument was quickly used by the aforementioned cheerleaders after their utter disappointment The self-proclaimed goal of getting the majority wasn't met by a far margin, that's why the result could very well be interpreted as an actual defeat.

yyaldrin
21-04-2017, 01:17 PM
Mark Rutte, leader of the VVD, published this in one of the biggest newspapers just before the elections:


To all Dutchmen,

There's something wrong with our country. How is it possible that we, as a country, are so wealthy, but that some people behave so poorly? People who set the tone in our country more and more. Who are willing to overthrow everything we, the Netherlands, have worked so hard for. We can't let that happen!
Most people have good will. The silent majority. We want the best for our country. We work hard, help one another, and think the Netherlands are quite a cool country. But we do worry about the way we treat one another. Sometimes it seems like no-one behaves normally anymore.

You probably recognise it. People seem to behave more and more anti-socially. In traffic, in public transport, and in the streets. Who think they always have right of way. Who dump their garbage on the street. Who spit at conductors. Who hang around in groups and bully people, threaten them or even assault them. Not normal.
We feel increasingly uneasy when people abuse our freedom to undermine our country, even though they came to our country for that freedom. People who refuse to adapt, dislike our traditions and reject our values. Who harrass gays, cat-call women in short skirts, or call normal Dutchmen racist. I understand it all too well when people think: if you reject our country in such a fundamental manner, I'd rather have you leave. Because I feel the same. Behave normally or leave.

Never should we accept this behaviour as normal in our country. The solution is not, to lump together groups of people, to insult them, or to simply deport whole groups of people. We can't build a society like that. The solution is mainly a matter of mentality. We should continu to make clear what is and what is not normal in this country. We have to defend our values actively.
For in the Netherlands, it's normal to shake hands and treat one another like equals. It is normal not to assault first-aid helpers. To treat teachers with respect and to not bully people with vlogs. It is normal to work for your money and try to make the best out of your life. To help one another when things are rough and hug people when times are tough. It is normal to do your best and not to walk away from your problems. That you listen to others. Rather than yell if you disagree with someone.

The near future will decide our country's direction. We only need to answer one question: what kind of country do we want to be?

Let us fight for being able to feel at home in our beautiful country. Let us make clear what is normal and what is not. I'm sure we can do that. That we can reïnforce what we made together thus far. You, I, all of us. Let us coöperate to improve our country even better. Because we really are a really cool country. I wouldn't want to live anywhere else. Would you?

Mark Rutte

I don't even know where to start...

richwill
21-04-2017, 03:28 PM
I admire people's optimism. I hope it is that and not cpmplacency after Austria and Holland. Droid is definitely right aboit the climate, the great unmentionable in any election campaign. Strangely Le Pen has apparently, quietly, moved away from outright denial, which I thought was fulcral to the whole global far-right agenda, it's possibly she's moving into more eco-entho-nationalism but it's too depressing to find out more about.

droid
21-04-2017, 03:36 PM
Its not optimism, per se, rather an attempt at a realistic look at things. Its important not to let pessimism overwhelm. The world is complex and many of the factors that have enabled ethno-nationalism also work against it.

This is not the great global wave of fascism, not yet anyway.

baboon2004
23-04-2017, 01:29 PM
How normotic. Normal to shake hands and not accuse Dutchmen of racism - wtf.


Mark Rutte, leader of the VVD, published this in one of the biggest newspapers just before the elections:



I don't even know where to start...

sufi
24-04-2017, 01:52 PM
How normotic. Normal to shake hands and not accuse Dutchmen of racism - wtf.normotic - my new word for the day


Its not optimism, per se, rather an attempt at a realistic look at things. Its important not to let pessimism overwhelm. The world is complex and many of the factors that have enabled ethno-nationalism also work against it.

This is not the great global wave of fascism, not yet anyway. How is rightism different fundamentally from "bad faith"? You believe the worst of everybody, so you vote (or act) pessimistically, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
And socialism is good faith - you believe that humans can work together etc.
Simple positivity and negativeness, or is there a neat counter argument from the rightist perspective?

(Droid, obvs must be exceptional in his utterly pessimistic worldview)

I suppose that going back to the question at hand, it's nothing intrinsic about the far-right that makes voting for them a gamble, it's just that they are presenting themselves as a radical departure from the establishment, thus a leap into the unknown, so that's a gamble? but the same could be said for Corbyn, doesn’t seem to help much though. How come Labour can't seem to successfully harness "populism"?

also, can the left be Nationalist (as suggested by Adam Curtis at his talk the other day)? Is that what it needs to get it's shit back together?

also Kingsnorth (https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/mar/18/the-new-lie-of-the-land-what-future-for-environmentalism-in-the-age-of-trump) seems to be steering an environmentalism towards fascism, wtf's up with that?

luka
24-04-2017, 02:10 PM
There's always been a strong link between the far right and environmentalism

droid
24-04-2017, 03:00 PM
normotic - my new word for the day
(Droid, obvs must be exceptional in his utterly pessimistic worldview)


And yet, here I am, preaching hope. :x:

droid
24-04-2017, 03:05 PM
There's always been a strong link between the far right and environmentalism

This is true.

Theres a current in environmentalism that recognises this and is trying to counteract eco-fascists.

The main problem with humanist ecology is that the mechanics of consumerism & capitalism makes us all complicit => therefore making a very good case for an anti-human ecology.

Space there for a third wave of nihilist ecology - pollute until the earth kills us all, leaving a nice quiet rock floating in infinite black solitude, untroubled by the incessant whine of human thought.

john eden
24-04-2017, 04:19 PM
All voting is a form of gambling.

CrowleyHead
24-04-2017, 05:41 PM
Can I take bets out on the election at Vegas, or would they argue that its pre-determined and therefore not a real sport? Debates are pretty much Political Entertainment.

craner
24-04-2017, 09:06 PM
I've spent the last 2 years regretting not placing bets on my political "hunches" so I guess that says that 1) it is and 2) it isn't.

droid
24-04-2017, 09:52 PM
I have only ever placed two bets in my life, both on Irish elections (and in particular the demise of recumbent parties), both won to the tune of about €200.

Best bet ever would have been a grand on Hillary, take the early payoff and then put it on Trump.

craner
24-04-2017, 10:47 PM
I have a hunch.

You can probably guess what it is.

luka
24-04-2017, 10:51 PM
I have a hunch.

You can probably guess what it is.

Uh, corbyn in a landslide?

droid
24-04-2017, 10:52 PM
lol. A step too far. Polls have been unerringly accurate and the margins are nowhere near as close.

Dont ruin your record.

craner
24-04-2017, 10:52 PM
It's Le Pen.

craner
24-04-2017, 10:53 PM
I want to get the monkey off my back!

craner
24-04-2017, 10:56 PM
Was going to add, if not this time, then next time! But didn't want to muddy the water

Clearly I'm a Macon man.

craner
24-04-2017, 10:57 PM
But le Pen is not to be written off.

droid
24-04-2017, 11:00 PM
No, I wouldnt do that, and who knows what might happen, but Brexit polling was in the margin of error. 538 gave Trump a 1/3 chance.

Le Pen has, to be generous, a 3% chance. She's nearly 30 points down.

craner
24-04-2017, 11:10 PM
Fingers crossed, innit.

Leo
25-04-2017, 12:59 AM
Was going to add, if not this time, then next time! But didn't want to muddy the water

Clearly I'm a Macon man.

she definitely has one more chance after this election, particularly/obviously if he screws up or doesn't accomplish much and terrorist attacks continue.

droid
08-05-2017, 12:55 PM
Hurrah for the death of Craner's hunches.

Mr. Tea
08-05-2017, 02:06 PM
Hurrah for the death of Craner's hunches.

I asked him about a week before the election and he'd swung to Macron by that time, so he is (ultimately) vindicated.

richwill
12-05-2017, 10:14 AM
"This is not the great global wave of fascism, not yet anyway."

Droid wins.