World cup predictions rant

k-punk

Spectres of Mark
Is anyone else infuriated by the inanity of pundits' 'predictions' for the world cup finals? What, for instance, is the fucking point in predicting that Brazil will win, as all four of the pundits in the Times do today. Well, really sticking out your necks there boys. And, alongside the predictable talking down of England's chances with the requisite resentful glee (which that miserable misanthropist Brian Glanville has made a whole fucking career out of), here we go: the final four to be made up of Brazil, Argentina, Italy and France or something equally moronically canonical. Have people got no memory? The one thing that you can say for sure about the world cup is that it doesn't go to plan... yeh, the winners come from a farily small predictable group (usually a previous winner or the home nation)... but when it comes to the last four, there are always rogue elements... Can I remind folk that the last four in 2002 were Brazil, Germany, Turkey and South Korea? This isn't that unusual, actually...

And might I also point out that although pundits ALWAYS say Brazil will win, they have only done so twice in the last 35 years. They have only one once in Europe in the history of the competition. So I think I'm on safe ground to say that they won't be winning this year.
 
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Diggedy Derek

Stray Dog
Yeah, totally agree. Brazil aren't even that good really. They were pretty average when they won the last world cup I reckon- Ronaldinho was average, Ronaldo was fat and scored a couple of tap ins, Rivaldo was probably their best forward. Personally, I'd rather Italy or Argentina won than Brazil.

I don't think England will win either, though, I don't think England are tough enough.
 

martin

----
Ah yes, the beloved fucking Brazil, well, you gotta support them ain't you, I mean, world's greatest team ever, sound of the carnival, like being blown by an angel watching them, the beautiful game, what, you some sort of freak?

I detest Brazil and I'm looking forward to them being humiliated. Fuck the Dutch too. I'm afraid I would have supported England but I've got this long-running Paraguay fetish I can't explain, and I think them and Sweden are going to go through.
 

3underscore

Well-known member
Right - I reckon I want to bet on Costa Rica to beat Germany in the opener. Maybe double it with Wanchope to score.

Isn't going to be quite as good as the last world cup, when 9-1 on Senegal to beat France paid me up for the whole tournament in the pub.
 

Rambler

Awanturnik
I thought Joe Lovejoy in yesterday's (Sunday's) Times was the most moronic of the four - in his headlining article he screams that anything less than an England win will be a major failure, then in the box below he doesn't even rate England as semi-finallists.

ie: "although I have built up a realistic and considered expectation of how England will do through professionally analysing and reporting on international football for many years, the only way England can succeed is if, against the odds, they greatly exceed all those expectations"
 

jenks

thread death
no mention of the germans - yes their squad is not a great one but, like the italians, they are great tournament specialists - not for them the samba stars and flashy tricks but the grinding one -nils and bursting of balloons of those who have snuck under the radar to get to the semis.

the point is that there is no really good european team - which is why we really should have won the euros in 2004 - lots of teams that are either too old or too young - the czechs are ok but not what they once were, the dutch are their usual mix of brilliance and petulence - the money should be on which one of the dutch will storm out/be sent packing from training camp. spain - perpetual under performers, italy - for the first time in twenty years i am not going to bet on the to win cos they can't score when it matters and they have started to leak goals. france - hmmm maybe, they've started to look better recently but they don't have that ability to play as a team like they had 10 years ago

in south america it's only brazil and argentina isn't it? argentina have spent the last two years looking like champs only to get suckered into a cup match against england in a friendly. And brazil - well it's sucha cliche to pick them - i wonder if it has as much to do with the fact ath we know so many of them now - see them in champs league matches, even in the prem - we accord them this mystique but they can look pretty wooden in defence (liked the point made a week or so ago about ronaldinho - he does his tricks in places where it hurts - too true)

i'm still going for England because if not now then never - we have a very good 10 (left sided midfield still up for grabs - don't see ledley holding down the midfield maestro job full time) and if we can play as a team i think we might hold it together to do anybody

final four? england . germany. argentina. ghana - i know it's still very canonical but i think maybe when you get to the finals the canon is pretty much made

as for glanville - it used to be the italians he loved - i suppose he realised that we ahve all the best central defenders and has now moved on to brasil as a way of flaggelating england
 

carlos

manos de piedra
i was born in chile and we didn't qualify :(

i wouldn't bet against brazil. they might have only won it twice in 35 years ( or twice in 12 ;) ) but they have consistently made it to the semis since 1970. and so have the germans. and the germans are playing at home. so i'm going out on a limb and predicting a Germany - Brazil final
 

k-punk

Spectres of Mark
Rambler said:
I thought Joe Lovejoy in yesterday's (Sunday's) Times was the most moronic of the four - in his headlining article he screams that anything less than an England win will be a major failure, then in the box below he doesn't even rate England as semi-finallists.

ie: "although I have built up a realistic and considered expectation of how England will do through professionally analysing and reporting on international football for many years, the only way England can succeed is if, against the odds, they greatly exceed all those expectations"

Yeh that PRECISELY sums up everything English sportspeople are up against - and footballers more than anyone else. We don't expect you to do very well... but if you don't massively exceed our expectations you will have failed. No wonder they have an 'in built loser attitude' as Mark E S put it so long ago..
 

k-punk

Spectres of Mark
jenks said:
no mention of the germans - yes their squad is not a great one but, like the italians, they are great tournament specialists - not for them the samba stars and flashy tricks but the grinding one -nils and bursting of balloons of those who have snuck under the radar to get to the semis.

Germany have a fantastic record of qualifying for the final; not so clever at winning it. When you put together the amount of times they have made the final with the amount of times a home side has done so, you'd have to say they're odds on for the final.

Since 62:

Home side made the final 66, 74, 78, 98. (Exceptions: 70 and 86 with Mexico, who were no-hopers, ditto USA 94; 82, Spain, perennial under-achievers [just WHY are they seeded this time, does anyone know?]; the other two occasions, 90 and 02, the hosts made the semi-final)

Germany: final 66, 74, 82, 86, 90, 02.


i'm still going for England because if not now then never - we have a very good 10 (left sided midfield still up for grabs - don't see ledley holding down the midfield maestro job full time) and if we can play as a team i think we might hold it together to do anybody

think this is OTM.. it's the best chance we've had since 70 (and since a European side has never won outside Europe 70 wasn't a great chance really)... moreover, it's Northern Europe so it'll be as close to home for England as it's possible to be... plus we really have got a good side, a side so good that there really is no reason why we shouldn't win.... Rooney rightly gets all the plaudits, but Owen is a fantastically consistent striker... is there anyone else in the world so reliable as him?

final four? england . germany. argentina. ghana - i know it's still very canonical but i think maybe when you get to the finals the canon is pretty much made

Going for England is counter-canonical, and Ghana won't be in many pundits final four I'll wager...

as for glanville - it used to be the italians he loved - i suppose he realised that we ahve all the best central defenders and has now moved on to brasil as a way of flaggelating england

lol
 

k-punk

Spectres of Mark
martin said:
Ah yes, the beloved fucking Brazil, well, you gotta support them ain't you, I mean, world's greatest team ever, sound of the carnival, like being blown by an angel watching them, the beautiful game, what, you some sort of freak?

I detest Brazil and I'm looking forward to them being humiliated.

Bravo! Thought I was the only one...

samba fascism I call it...

Greatest moment in world history: Italy 3 - Brazil 2 in 82....

Between 70 and 94 They Who Must Be Admired never looked like winning, despite commentators creaming over them every time they managed to kick a ball straight ('look at the skiiiiiiiilllllllll, the Latin rythmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm'). they were possibly the most boring team to win a world cup in 94 (like, imagine Germany if they actually won instead of coming runner-up). They were poor in 98, and justly beaten in the final by a French side with vastly more flair, invention and talent. And Derek's right, they were very average last time. Of all the overrated Brazillians, Ronaldo is probably numero uno...

Is Roberto Carlos playing this time? If so can I have a pound for every time commentators talk about his fackin free kicks --- he's scored about three in his whole, long career y'know.
 

carlos

manos de piedra
k-punk said:
Bravo! Thought I was the only one...

no- all of Argentina agrees with you on that...

overrated or not- brazil finds a way to win. you win 2 world cups in 3 tries, and you might get overrated a bit.

did anybody watch the 2004 copa america? adriano's last gasp goal to tie and then the win in extra time?
 

k-punk

Spectres of Mark
carlos said:
no- all of Argentina agrees with you on that...

Hurrah!

overrated or not- brazil finds a way to win. you win 2 world cups in 3 tries, and you might get overrated a bit.

Yeh, but Brazil were never more overrated in Britain than between 70 and 94, when they were winning nothing. Last time they won in Europe: nearly 50 years ago.
 

don_quixote

Trent End
spain were seeded under the fifa criteria of ranking for seeds, namely:

world cup record:
2 parts record at world cup 2002 (quarter final)
1 part record at world cup 1998 (group stage)

fifa rankings:
1 part fifa ranking 2005
1 part fifa ranking 2004
1 part fifa ranking 2003

which left:
brazil - 31.7 - 32 - 64
england - 26 - 24.7 - 51
spain - 21.7 - 28.3 - 50
germany - 29.3 - 20 - 49
mexico - 21.3 - 26 - 47
france - 16 - 30 - 46
argentina - 15 - 29 - 44
italy - 21.3 - 23 - 44
usa - 19.3 - 23.3 - 43
holland - 9.7 - 28.7 - 38

so in effect, spain are third seeds
 

bun-u

Trumpet Police
I fancy Argentina to win, though they've got (another) tough group to start with. Italy will do well too and England may do also but I see Sven as a liability at tournaments and injuries to anyone except centre halves will cause problems.
 

martin

----
k-punk said:
They were poor in 98, and justly beaten in the final by a French side with vastly more flair, invention and talent.

Hence another tantrum by these pundits - beating their breasts and concocting ludicrous conspiracy theories regarding Ronaldo's convulsive fit, mmm, very fishy, France must have fixed this etc etc

Sometimes it can be fun seeing them make arses of themselves. When Spain crashed out in '98, the whining was delightful - apparently they 'deserved' to go through, despite the fact they hadn't been able to beat Nigeria or Paraguay. Spain stuck 6 goals past Bulgaria on the last game, while Paraguay breezed past a Nigeria B-squad and went through instead. To watch Bob Wilson frothing with disapproval, you'd think he'd just uncovered some masonic conspiracy, rather than Spain just being too complacent too early on.

Was there some sort of similar paranoid muttering about Korea in 2002? I can't remember now
 

don_quixote

Trent End
yeah, there was muttering about referee decisions as both spain and italy crashed out to south korea.

favourite moment was cassano scoring against bulgaria and italy turning the game around, only to find they were out by default as sweden and denmark were drawing 2-2, which left countless italians shouting conspiracy (as well as italian-sympathetic media commentators)

_40302935_cassano300.jpg

Cassano.jpg

cassano_cry2_in_euro2004_italy_knockout.jpg

cassanozambr--310x210.jpg


meanwhile...

_40302867_deden300_getty.jpg
 

3underscore

Well-known member
jenks said:
i'm still going for England because if not now then never - we have a very good 10 (left sided midfield still up for grabs - don't see ledley holding down the midfield maestro job full time) and if we can play as a team i think we might hold it together to do anybody

I agree with some of the sentiment, but would argue that England are very much short of getting the correct eleven on the pitch
  • The midfield needs sorted. Gerrard and Lampard can't play in the middle together. They need a defensive midfielder otherwise they are in trouble. I can't see who this would be, but King and Carrick would be taken apart by the likes of Ronadinhio and Relimque (sp).
  • Left Midfield needs solved (as you note)
  • There is a certain approach of picking the best ten players and forcing them into a formation. This isn't really the best way - some aspect of playing a not-as-good teamplayer is needed. This especially applies to Left Midfield, where an average left footed player would release Ashley Cole, but Steven Gerrard would cause problems for the team.
  • Cover for Rooney. Almost impossible, but losing Rooney and that spark cost England any hope of Euro 2004
There are a lot of ego's in the England squad which may make things difficult. At times, I have been all for dropping David Beckham, but I do believe he should be relieved of the captaincy.

England have a strong team and a reasonable squad. Whether they will have sufficient will to win the tournament, or be able to hold their form over the required number of games, remains questionable.
 

Rambler

Awanturnik
don_quixote said:
favourite moment was cassano scoring against bulgaria and italy turning the game around, only to find they were out by default as sweden and denmark were drawing 2-2, which left countless italians shouting conspiracy (as well as italian-sympathetic media commentators)

I was in Italy at the time; the soundscape of cheers, followed by agonized silence, followed by angry young men jumping on their scooters to go home in a huff was all the commentary you needed.
 
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