Crazy like a fox ? (N Korea)

polystyle

Well-known member
Aaah , N Korea
They wanted attention , so they fire 7 missiles that land in the Japan Sea ,
one a bigger one (half Dong 2) that lasts ... 40 seconds ... before splashing .
Chose to fire them on the 4th of July as the Space Shuttle goes up and the US prepares for their own fireworks - Oh the timing of it all .

Japan goes to the 'Security' Council and presents a plan that includes plans for sanctions as well as condemnation for the NK's abduction of over 50 citizens over the years .
China and Russia have veto power and resist sanctions ...

In the meantime , i am also not convinced that N K even HAS nuclear bombs ,
tho' 'Intelligence' estimates say they have 4-6- 11 bombs by now.
If they cannot fire a missile competently - sure they keep trying and gathering data each time and may get it right at some point , these last ones didn't make it as far as the one in '98 - can it then be true that they already pulled off making multiple nuclear bombs ?
Having seen zero evidence of a bomb , my gut is that they are gambling on the threat
and may just be forced to play their card down the line.
Something will break ...
 

adruu

This Is It
Hypotheticals --

What would happen if China took the initiative to remove Kim Jong Il? Do they have the military capability? Wouldnt' the shrewd move on their part be reunification of the peninsula? or replacing him with their puppet?

I am having a hard time understanding why a nut job of a neighbor-despot is worth in 2006. Or is 1953 still fresh in the minds of the old cp?
 

bruno

est malade
adruu said:
Hypotheticals --

What would happen if China took the initiative to remove Kim Jong Il? Do they have the military capability? Wouldnt' the shrewd move on their part be reunification of the peninsula? or replacing him with their puppet?

I am having a hard time understanding why a nut job of a neighbor-despot is worth in 2006. Or is 1953 still fresh in the minds of the old cp?
i imagine no one wants a failed state on their doorstep. both south korea and china would have a potential refugee influx on their hands, a nightmare scenario. but there is also the factor of american influence in the region, and china would (understandably) want to avoid it extending to a direct neighbour.
 
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polystyle

Well-known member
Something will have to happen
Chinese Communist Party wants to keep their own options open and will not back any resolution calling for sanctions because they are thinking down the road if and when they are lobbing missiles into Taiwan to 'get it back', so i think what they do now is seen through that lens.

Chinese CP also may be entering the end of a period of relative calm in the what , 17 years since T Square
and are becoming nervous /steeling themselves for even more unrest throughout the country.
In a recent 'Futures' post over in Thought i list their Gov tally of 80,000 mass protests in the country in 2005 (!)
For sure, they are not helping enough to either temper the situation or resolve it,
possibly they have their hands full and don't want their boat rocked by their neighbor .

Also get the feeling NK and even Chinese CP 's military grab the upper hand from time to time,
Japanese TV report in which NK officials were interviewed claimed they didn't even know the missiles were launched (could be BS of course), and it seems the general populace has had no news of it - zero .

And right, no one wants the basket case on their doorstep , fleeing population into their own countries.
S Korea still wants to work it towards getting bk together with the North , but hard to imagine that happening until the CP gets really old or someone's Special Forces takes out the big man.
S Korea economy does well enough to help patch up the North , but wow what a job that would be ...
 
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