food riots
- Thread starter luka
- Start date
vimothy
yurp
Three cheers for biofuels!
More tariffs please!
(Actually, if you are living in a poor country that is nevertheless a net importer of food, you are pretty screwed right now).
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Increases in the price of wheat and dairy products are being laid at the door of the Chinese government, which apparently is trying to get the populace to adopt a more Western diet. Fuck knows why - have they not seen what the Western diet is doing to a lot of Westerners? 
vimothy
yurp
Martin Wolf:
A rise in the relative prices of commodities may reflect inflationary pressures. It may also cause inflation. But it is not itself inflation. Such a rise is also precisely what we are seeing. If one deflates the rise in commodity prices given above by the increase in the unit value of exports of manufactures from high-income countries, one obtains the following increases in real prices: 147 per cent for all commodities, 192 per cent for energy, 77 per cent for non-energy, 131 per cent for industrial metals and 104 per cent for agricultural commodities.
What we are seeing then is a global shift in relative prices, with commodities, particularly energy, becoming much more expensive, relative to manufactures. If one deflates the price of crude oil in the same way, it is more expensive than at any time since 1970.
What is behind these surges in commodity prices? The big story is the impact of emerging economies and, overwhelmingly, of China, which has accounted for the bulk of global incremental demand for industrial raw materials. Between 2000 and 2006, it also generated 31 per cent of global incremental demand for oil, against just 20 per cent for North America.
The strength of demand in emerging economies does not entirely explain the rise in commodity prices. Mandates to produce biofuels have also had an impact on demand for some agricultural commodities. Also important have been constraints on supply: bad harvests, inadequate investment and higher costs. The rising price of energy is itself a big reason why agricultural production has become far more expensive. Speculation seems not to be that important. If it were, inventories would be soaring. But they are not.
Because of the steep fall in the value of the dollar against the euro, any given rise in global commodity prices will have a bigger impact on headline inflation in the US than in the eurozone and the other economies with relatively strong currencies. It is not surprising, therefore, that the gap between headline and core inflation has been particularly large there.
What we are seeing then is a global shift in relative prices, with commodities, particularly energy, becoming much more expensive, relative to manufactures. If one deflates the price of crude oil in the same way, it is more expensive than at any time since 1970.
What is behind these surges in commodity prices? The big story is the impact of emerging economies and, overwhelmingly, of China, which has accounted for the bulk of global incremental demand for industrial raw materials. Between 2000 and 2006, it also generated 31 per cent of global incremental demand for oil, against just 20 per cent for North America.
The strength of demand in emerging economies does not entirely explain the rise in commodity prices. Mandates to produce biofuels have also had an impact on demand for some agricultural commodities. Also important have been constraints on supply: bad harvests, inadequate investment and higher costs. The rising price of energy is itself a big reason why agricultural production has become far more expensive. Speculation seems not to be that important. If it were, inventories would be soaring. But they are not.
Because of the steep fall in the value of the dollar against the euro, any given rise in global commodity prices will have a bigger impact on headline inflation in the US than in the eurozone and the other economies with relatively strong currencies. It is not surprising, therefore, that the gap between headline and core inflation has been particularly large there.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
This is another big factor, of course, isn't it - you can't do any worthwhile kind of farming or manufacture (and transportation, retail...) without electricity for your machines and petrol for you vehicles, hence the price of everything depends on the price of energy.
Gavin
booty bass intellectual
and pesticides
noel emits
a wonderful wooden reason
Even in the UK it's really apparent that the price of food has gone up loads in the last year. Wheat notably, and now rice, but everything really. This affects a huge amount of people. Food is so basic, how can this happen?
crackerjack
Well-known member
Oil innit. A rise in the price of oil effects every step of the food process, particularly farming and transportation, but also I guess smaller things like refrigeration, packaging, refinement. Dairy goods might be the biggest % price rise (my cheese and butter budget has soared
) Stir that into the credit crunch and things are looking pretty screwed.
noel emits
a wonderful wooden reason
India has massively increased the price of rice exports because not enough is being produced it seems. So oil is not the only factor, although of course it is still related. World rice stocks are running low and demand is increasing. I would imagine bio fuel production has something to do with this as well, or rather that land is being used for purposes other than food production.
It's a problem of global resource management isn't it? But then I suppose the countries that rely most on rice are producing enough for themselves. We'll have to stick to potatoes, or seagulls and pigeons.
It always amuses me when scientists put an almost religious faith in 'technology providing an answer', but I am kind of hoping that space elevators and solar panels are taken seriously, or that General Motors and BP will own up to having had 'free' energy systems for years now.
It's a problem of global resource management isn't it? But then I suppose the countries that rely most on rice are producing enough for themselves. We'll have to stick to potatoes, or seagulls and pigeons.
It always amuses me when scientists put an almost religious faith in 'technology providing an answer', but I am kind of hoping that space elevators and solar panels are taken seriously, or that General Motors and BP will own up to having had 'free' energy systems for years now.
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It always amuses me when scientists put an almost religious faith in 'technology providing an answer', but I am kind of hoping that space elevators and solar panels are taken seriously, or that General Motors and BP will own up to having had 'free' energy systems for years now.
I happened across the idea of space fountains recently. More feasible, assuming this doesn't get us first, Death of Grass style
As for free energy, Dr Bussard's talk at Google about polywell fusion is worth a look. God, I hope they find investment and it works. Strangely, he proposes using all that energy to make expedite the process of producing ethanol biofuel.
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crackerjack
Well-known member
and here's the voice of the apocalypse
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/mar/30/fossilfuels.water
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/mar/30/fossilfuels.water
vimothy
yurp
Paul Krugman, unusually agreeable:
Where the effects of bad policy are clearest, however, is in the rise of demon ethanol and other biofuels. ...[E]ven on optimistic estimates, producing a gallon of ethanol from corn uses most of the energy the gallon contains. But ... even seemingly “good” biofuel policies, like Brazil’s use of ethanol from sugar cane, accelerate ... climate change by promoting deforestation.
And meanwhile, land used to grow biofuel feedstock is land not available to grow food, so subsidies to biofuels are a major factor in the food crisis. You might put it this way: people are starving in Africa so that American politicians can court votes in farm states.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering: all the remaining presidential contenders are terrible on this issue.
And meanwhile, land used to grow biofuel feedstock is land not available to grow food, so subsidies to biofuels are a major factor in the food crisis. You might put it this way: people are starving in Africa so that American politicians can court votes in farm states.
Oh, and in case you’re wondering: all the remaining presidential contenders are terrible on this issue.
Spreading daily, reports of hoarding by politicorps and individuals alike.
Costco on W Coast US limiting rice buying to one bag per customer,
'according to buyers previous buying habits'.
Cheers Luka ,
didn't see this before I started Foo Riots thread on 'Futures' over in Thought
Costco on W Coast US limiting rice buying to one bag per customer,
'according to buyers previous buying habits'.
Cheers Luka ,
didn't see this before I started Foo Riots thread on 'Futures' over in Thought
crackerjack
Well-known member
Anyone else paying much attention to this? What will the ramifications be, is GM back on?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4056801.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4056801.ece
noel emits
a wonderful wooden reason
You'll all be eating Quinoa by the turn of the decade, mark my words.
crackerjack
Well-known member
Half the world's population dies of starvation, demand comes down, sorted.