georgia/russia: war?
- Thread starter swears
- Start date
swears
preppy-kei
So expect plenty of calls for restraint and ceasefire from the West, but don't expect much else - after all America needs Russian co-operation on more pressing issues like North Korea and other members of the Western alliance like Germany will hardly be anxious for a confrontation with a country that supplies much of their energy needs.
Kinda hoping this is true....
Kinda hoping this is true....
crackerjack
Well-known member
You can rest easy, there's no way the US or the EU are getting directly involved (for a while, at least). More interesting question is to what extent Russia is using both overt and covert means to re-exert influence over its old backyard.
This is good: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4488503.ece
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
That 'cyber attack' on Estonia a year or two ago was pretty shocking.
crackerjack
Well-known member
IdleRich
IdleRich
Basically Russia can do what they want to Georgia and no-one is going to dare trying to do anything about it in case they get some of the same. Nothing changes and the more powerful countries do what they want when they want regardless of international law which they pay lip service to purely when it suits them (see also the US executing that Mexican guy last week despite the International Court of Justice decreeing it illegal).
D
droid
Guest
As many commentators have pointed out, this is obviously a warning to the West that Russia is not going to allow itself to be completely encircled by NATO and threatened by the US's proposed missile 'defense' system.
Its lucky Georgia haven't joined up yet, or we'd be looking at a potentially much more serious conflict.
Its lucky Georgia haven't joined up yet, or we'd be looking at a potentially much more serious conflict.
crackerjack
Well-known member
You think Russia would've gone ahead with the bombing if Georgia was a NATO member? Membership requires (I think) the rest of NATO to some to the aid of those under attack. Even with an overstretched US, that would be quite a step for a belligerent Russia.
crackerjack
Well-known member
The Pres sounds like a tactical idiot. He could've reacted to the provocation by sending troops to reclaim control, instead he went for an indiscriminate bombing campaign. With enemies like him, Putin doesn't need any friends.
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droid
Guest
It would indeed, but they have already threatened military action after the plans to place radar systems in the Czech Republic was announced. And despite the absurd rhetoric, the US missile defense system is designed to impede a Russian retaliatory strike, which effectively makes it a first strike weapon, so 'defensive' could easily be substituted for 'belligerent'. Imagine the US reaction if Russia installed such a system in Canada...
crackerjack
Well-known member
You fire batteries of unguided rockets into what is de facto Russian territory, you will have the Russians kicking in your door shortly after. Asymmetric warfare cuts both ways - the game Russia is playing lately means they are the only party who can even imagine winning.
If the whole of the rest of the world went to shit in an armageddon of oil, water and religious wars, Russia could quite happily sit it out for a generation inside their vast well-resourced, homogenous country and march in afterwards.
Anyone else seen the rumours flying about that some of the Georgian tankers found in S.Ossetia were black (ie before they were incinerated) and had US insignia? Most likely bollocks, but would you put it past the current administration to make war by proxy against Russia, via mercenaries, advisers?
If the whole of the rest of the world went to shit in an armageddon of oil, water and religious wars, Russia could quite happily sit it out for a generation inside their vast well-resourced, homogenous country and march in afterwards.
Anyone else seen the rumours flying about that some of the Georgian tankers found in S.Ossetia were black (ie before they were incinerated) and had US insignia? Most likely bollocks, but would you put it past the current administration to make war by proxy against Russia, via mercenaries, advisers?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
There's no few Chechens who'd take issue with your use of 'homogenous' there, I reckon.
IdleRich
IdleRich
I don't think I'd put it past them in terms of morality but I don't really see what they could hope to gain by doing this. Not to mention how embarrassing it would be if they were caught - I mean, why on earth would they have US insignia, I'm no expert but surely the first thing to do if you are fighting a war that your country isn't supposed to be involved in is get rid of that?
crackerjack
Well-known member
In the current climate, yes I would. What are the odds of any conflict anywhere occurring without rumours flying around the internet that it was the US wot done it?
crackerjack
Well-known member
Ha, quite. Not to mention that the US is already woefully overexposed in a part of the world where the Russians are quite capable of creating shit for them to swim in.
crackerjack
Well-known member
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droid
Guest
Yeah. It would actually be the Russian who would have most to gain from it.