I was right, sadly. The Euro elections were not a one off, and I do think this will be reflected in a general election. And even if it is not quite I will add:
1) The idea that the SNP/Labour dominance in Scotland is a reflection of the death of Scottish conservatism is wrong: if you look at general election results in the last two decades, the Tories haven't won, but they've been second in many constituencies, and often not that far behind. So my contention was that in an indepedent Scotland, there is no reason to write off a Scottish Conservative (non-Tory) revival in a decade or two, and therefore the vote was not (ultimately) about party politics.
2) The idea that a UKIP defeat in a general election, that is if they got no MPs, would be irrelevant if they came second in safe Labour or Tory seats, smashing the traditional opposition. I think that would be very worrying.
Also, the other night, after finishing Charles Moore's Thatcher biography, the whole thing came to me in an early morning dream. What is UKIP (now)? Taking into account its libertarian, anti-European, anti-intervensionist stance? Ultra-Thatcherite? Well, Thatcher was not against welfare on principle, she had some sympathy for Beveridge. Also, UKIP seem to be anti-Atlantacist. Who was more pro-America and pro-NATO than Thatcher? (She would not have been pro-Putin, like Farage clearly is.) It didn't stack up...but then. Of course. They are Powell-ite. UKIP are the party of Enoch Powell, in every respect, from his early adoption of free-market ideas to his latent racism to his later incarnation in the Ulster Unionists.
This should be the way the Tories and Labour attack UKIP. Except that Powell popularised a trashy racism and jingoism in the British working class psyche. We are seeing the fruit of that now.
Sorry: forgot to add: Powell was deeply suspicious of America, even in his last ditch paranoia about American interests on Irish territory. Thatcher was less pro-Unionist than anti-IRA, which is a bit different.
Also: Powell was a soft anti-semite, which also chimes with UKIP's rogue troops, and divorces them from Thatcher's internationalist neoliberalism, and her adored Jewish Finchley constituency.