DOOM, or The Official 2016 US Election Thread
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Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I think this is stretching the word "rational" to breaking point. Some people have voted for Trump in large part because they think he's going to stand up to a Jewish plot to eradicated the white race from North America. You can say they're acting in "emotional self-interest", sure, but it can hardly be called "rational" since it's based on an obviously delusional belief.
droid
Well-known member
Have yet to confirm dates, but still panning on heading over next year - assuming London is till there of course.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
vimothy
yurp
Maybe in that case, but it's not delusional to imagine that the Democrats are looking forward to a time when demographic changes have rendered the votes -- and therefore the interests -- of the white working class superfluous. (That thesis doesn't look quite so certain now, as discussed by Sean Trende here, in the aftermath of Trump's success, but it has been a popular idea for the last decade or more and is reflected in the contemporary preference for identity over class-based politics.) Given that the Democrats have abandoned those who were previously among their core constituents (for a new coalition, made up, as described by Lawrence Summers, of "the cosmopolitan élite and diversity"), it's hardly irrational for those same constituents to look elsewhere.
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
I think this is applicable to rhetoric rather than policy insofar as Democrat policies benefit the white working class (a lot of the time for very little electoral gain).
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
In terms of tax, climate, healthcare, financial deregulation, 2nd amendment etc. Trump's in line with the GOP. The split between Trump and republicans is only explicitly evident in terms of foreign policy and upholding domestic democratic norms.
firefinga
Well-known member
Doesn't matter, the target groups have a different impression and they vote accordingly.
firefinga
Well-known member
The cardinal sin of leftists/liberals in most western countries. But then, play the "identity" politics card is uncostly, especially as a "middle-class socialist".
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
In light of our recent discussions, this from the European IGM Economic Experts Panel survey a few days ago:
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Responses:
Strongly Agree- 0%
Agree- 24%
Uncertain- 20%
Disagree- 38%
Strongly Disagree- 10%
No Opinion- 2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence:
Strongly Agree- 0%
Agree- 24%
Uncertain- 21%
Disagree- 41%
Strongly Disagree- 14%
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/migration-within-europe
They asked about a similar question here but included free movement of goods as well as services here:
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/trade-within-europe
Freer movement of people to live and work across borders within Europe has made many low-skilled western European citizens worse off since the 1980s.
Responses:
Strongly Agree- 0%
Agree- 24%
Uncertain- 20%
Disagree- 38%
Strongly Disagree- 10%
No Opinion- 2%
Responses weighted by each expert's confidence:
Strongly Agree- 0%
Agree- 24%
Uncertain- 21%
Disagree- 41%
Strongly Disagree- 14%
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/migration-within-europe
They asked about a similar question here but included free movement of goods as well as services here:
http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/trade-within-europe
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
Nate Silver:
Clinton should have campaigned more in MI, WI, which 538 model often ranked among tipping-point states. But it didn't cost her the election.
Clinton would still have lost the Electoral College with both MI & WI. She needed either PA or FL too, which she campaigned in plenty.
Clinton lost 4 states (FL, MI, WI, PA) by ~1 point. If not for Comey/Russia, she probably wins them all by ~2 points & strategy looks great.
So if you're going to second-guess, a way better question is whether Clinton needed a better October Surprise response strategy.
They were caught very flat-flooted on the Comey letter. Not an easy thing to respond to, but they didn't have much of a strategy at all.
Clinton should have campaigned more in MI, WI, which 538 model often ranked among tipping-point states. But it didn't cost her the election.
Clinton would still have lost the Electoral College with both MI & WI. She needed either PA or FL too, which she campaigned in plenty.
Clinton lost 4 states (FL, MI, WI, PA) by ~1 point. If not for Comey/Russia, she probably wins them all by ~2 points & strategy looks great.
So if you're going to second-guess, a way better question is whether Clinton needed a better October Surprise response strategy.
They were caught very flat-flooted on the Comey letter. Not an easy thing to respond to, but they didn't have much of a strategy at all.
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
The most common words in Hillary Clinton’s speeches
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13972394/most-common-words-hillary-clinton-speech
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/12/16/13972394/most-common-words-hillary-clinton-speech
sadmanbarty
Well-known member
All 11 states where over 30% of adults under 65 have "declinable pre-existing conditions" (under pre-Obamacare rules) voted for Trump
http://xpostfactoid.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/the-wealth-and-health-of-states-cont.html
http://xpostfactoid.blogspot.co.uk/2016/12/the-wealth-and-health-of-states-cont.html
vimothy
yurp
Pretty crazy interview with Richard Spencer by Elle Reeve of Vice Magazine. Definitely one for the DOOM thread. Lincoln Memorial in the background. The wind keeps blowing her hair into her face.
It's striking how little intellectual defence Reeve has against this sort of thing, despite what looks like an impressive CV.
It's striking how little intellectual defence Reeve has against this sort of thing, despite what looks like an impressive CV.
vimothy
yurp
You're letting your dislike of his politics colour your assessment of his character. He's obviously no idiot, even if he does speak like a millennial. It's worrying (or "exciting", if you prefer), not that Vice gives him a platform, but that they're so easily manipulated by him it becomes effective fascist propaganda.
The alt-right are still extremely marginal, and unlike some I don't worry that they've taken over the US, but Spencer is frankly a lot slicker than I was expecting.
The alt-right are still extremely marginal, and unlike some I don't worry that they've taken over the US, but Spencer is frankly a lot slicker than I was expecting.