Jeremy Corbyn

B

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Last edited:
B

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
1992 - 63% of 18-24s turned out
2015 - 43%

but EU vote 2016 - 64%

21% of 5.7 million 18-24 year olds = 1.2 million extra votes if 64% turn out for this one....obviously not all of them for Labour, but 60% +...

who knows. it's their bloody future


POLLWATCH - THERE IS A POLL THAT SHOWS LABOUR IN THE LEAD. http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Only one, but jeez that's a necessary fillip before the inevitable horror of tomorrow night.

And interestingly, Qriously, the polling company in question, predicted Brexit using smartphone-based polling, as opposed to the trad methods: https://www.umww.com/news/2016/07/how-one-pollster-correctly-predicted-brexit
 
Last edited:
droid

droid

Well-known member
Silver has posted a final analysis and it feels more or less right to me.

1/3 chance of Tory Landslide
1/3 chance of Slim majority
1/3 chance of hung parliament

He also gave Trump a 1/3 chance of the presidency.
 
R

rubberdingyrapids

Well-known member
baboon2004 said:
And interestingly, Qriously, the polling company in question, predicted Brexit using smartphone-based polling, as opposed to the trad methods: https://www.umww.com/news/2016/07/how-one-pollster-correctly-predicted-brexit
Click to expand...

thats interesting. how do the usual pollsters do it? in person? because i think if you do it in person, its no wonder so many people tell you something diff to what theyre really going to do. smartphone anonmyity is prob the way to go.

guardian front page says tories will win it, but im hoping they are wrong. or that it will be close at least. but the mail and express are really pulling out all the stops to attack corbyn today (the mail has a MASSIVE anti corybn spread, like a special pull out supplement).
 
Last edited:
droid

droid

Well-known member
One of the major criticism of US polling is the almost total dependence on landlines. Still!
 
R

rubberdingyrapids

Well-known member
even on the phone, the person being questioned i imagine might judge the interviewer and either give them what they want to hear (or the opposite). it can get in the way of honesty. i reckon apps would prob give you a more honest result (as long as someone has been vetted beforehand obv)

in the last election, ppl voting tories tended not to say they were voting for conservatives. if in these new polls, everyone is saying they are doing that, either its just more acceptable to say it in light of what most people now seem to believe and the general, almost gleeful cynicism we have in british society, or pollsters have gotten smarter and cannier, or - this might be my wishful thinking - now ppl are doing the opposite. saying theyre voting tory when theyre not going to.

or maybe ppl just like to take the piss out of polls.
 
R

rubberdingyrapids

Well-known member
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/voices-and-votes-what-britain-is-really-thinking

On the face of it, Wells is straightforward: a two-horse race between the Tories, defending the seat, and the Liberal Democrats, who must win in places like this if they are to become a credible political force again.

But while the bottom line is simple, voters’ thoughts and feelings about the two main parties here have proved complex, confused, divided and febrile.

We have spoken to stalwart Conservative voters who are planning to vote Lib Dem because they fear a large Theresa May majority, and to others expressing upset at the Tory austerity programme or the party’s approach to vulnerable members of society, such as people with disabilities.

On the other hand, there are voters who would like to plump for Tessa Munt – the well-known and popular Lib Dem candidate – but have been put off by her party’s pledge to hold another referendum on the final Brexit deal. Almost everyone we spoke to said there was no going back – we have to get on with Brexit. And few liked the Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron.

One striking phenomenon initially was the number of people from less wealthy areas who said they would vote for May because they saw her as a new Margaret Thatcher. As the campaign progressed, some of these appear to have grown bored of May’s “strong and stable” mantra and may have drifted away.

It is worth mentioning Labour, too. The party cannot win here this time, but its activists believe Jeremy Corbyn has changed the game for them. They say a base is being built that could see them taking the seat in 10, 20, 30 years. We spoke to many younger people who said they would lend their vote to the Lib Dems for tactical reasons, but really backed the Labour leader.

The lines are blurred. A number of people said they would decide on the day, even waiting until they entered the voting booth. If the Tories hold on, they will have done it through dogged hard work and will say it shows that people trust the party and the prime minister. If they lose, the Lib Dems will claim the comeback is on. But it’s really not as straightforward as that.
Click to expand...
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
DBzOISPWsAA6tJz.jpg
 
john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
That's got to be bollocks about drawing straws, surely?

Wouldn't they just have a couple of recounts and then have to run the election again?
 
john eden

john eden

male pale and stale
Anyway I assume this is a fairly obvious attempt to give the Tory activists a last burst of adrenaline when on the knock.

Which is a dangerous game, given their average age.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top