Jeremy Corbyn

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Thoughts on the Labour manifesto?

I'm very impressed from a skim read - Labour at last attending to the neoliberal elephants in the room. (Though I wish some of these policies had come out previously, when it seemed like Corbyn had no vote-winning headline policies, which can only have been damaging). The choice is starker than it has been in (my) memory.

Labour at 32% today, higher than Miliband. Thus proving that the real story here (as if anyone needed reminding) is not a Labour collapse, but the absorption by the Tories of the far right vote with Ukip's collapse. Hard to deal with the idea that Farage as leader would actually do some good by splitting the right wing vote.

At the manifesto press conference:
"Q: [From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg] Can you confirm that you would spend more and tax more and borrow more?"
Jesus H Christ.
 

droid

Well-known member
The manifesto is brilliant. An actual antidote to neo liberal drain circling which would materially improve the lives of millions of Britons.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
I'm hoping against hope that you're not right. Only way is for under-40s to turn out in droves on election day (or under 34, as apparently this is the tipping point from more-likely-to-vote Labour to Conservative. How depressing is that?). And this manifesto has given them very clear reasons to do so.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Ukip’s leader, Paul Nuttall, said the plans “demonstrate a complete lack of joined up thinking”. He said:

Whilst guaranteeing to list all pubs as assets of community value to help stop them being sold off to supermarket chains and the like is laudable, when combined with an refusal to rule out a rise in beer duty it is nothing but an empty gesture.

Protecting pubs from becoming supermarkets, while at the same time reinforcing the supermarkets ability to undercut pub prices is fantasy economics, and a cruel fantasy at that.


That's actually what he said.
 

droid

Well-known member
C_8pzsvUwAA11wu.jpg
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Yeah, I saw that chart before, it's eye-opening. I hope Corbyn goes heavy on this kind of message, an extraordinary tale of failure over the past decade.

Kind of gives the lie to Macron's assessment of the French economy as well, as needing more neoliberalism. It seems to have done OK over the past while.
 
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Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
France has persistent high unemployment. There's something to be said for looking at their legislation without throwing the baby out with the bathwater and going full Thatcher.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
True, but stats need to be picked apart. The official unemployment rate is just one relevant figure among a great many (and considerably less reliable than a lot of those other figures).

UK official unemployment figures are under 5%, down from a pretty consistent 7-8% 2010-2014. What's been the primary driver of that? I'd be surprised if it wasn't underpaid, exploitative jobs, given the current state of things. 900,000 are on zero hours contracts (can't immediately find the total working population figure, but that 900,000 prob accounts for about 2%). The number of working people in poverty - I'll have to look that one up.

In France, unemployment rate is 10%, but as far as I know, the unemployment benefits are superior to the UK/it's a better system. If that's true, and real wages are also 10% up rather than 10% down, then both employed and unemployed people are (on average) in a better position. Albeit that there are more unemployed people in France. Then I guess it comes down to whether you think a grossly underpaid, stressful, exploitative job is better/worse than being on the dole in a fairly decent system. It's certainly complex - https://www.thelocal.fr/20140311/does-france-have-europes-most-generous-unemployment-system

All part of the wider question of how states respond to the fact that there are less and less 'quality' jobs to go around.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Well like I said, I'm hardly holding up the UK as an example. In fact the real unemployment rate in the UK, while probably still (slightly) lower than France's, is much higher than the official figure when you consider that it only counts people claiming JSA, so it leaves out people who've been kicked off the dole or have given up trying to claim it, e.g. adults who've moved back in with their parents or are being supported by a partner, to say nothing of homeless people, and it doesn't even count people on at least some kinds of workfare schemes, I think.

Add to that all the underemployed people - those doing part-time work who'd prefer to work full time, on zero-hour contracts or in a state of bullshit 'self-employment' in the 'gig economy' but with little actual work to do, or enrolled in mickey-mouse courses in the vague hope of improving their prospects - and you're looking at many millions of working-age adults without anything that can be called a proper job.
 

firefinga

Well-known member
All part of the wider question of how states respond to the fact that there are less and less 'quality' jobs to go around.

With more pressure on the unemployed of course. And sadly, it works for several reasons - generally a drop of solidarity (for many reasons), the need for a scapegoat and the simple fact the group of the employed is still bigger than the unemployed/under-employed and works very well as a scarecrow in favor of the employers.

It's almost the same across the oecd countries for the last 15-20 years - job growth only due to high increase of part time/limited contracts, income increase (if at all) for employment lagging behind the income increase from stocks/property.

Ah Tea posted a reply covering much of what I was tryin to say while still putting my sentences together.
 

droid

Well-known member
€60 billion, 42% of the entire cost of the European banking crisis, one of the worst per capita financial disasters in history, and yet we still manage to be 12 points above the UK.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
The Tories forcing more elderly people (and wealthier elderly people too) to pay for their own social care, at the same time as ditching the pensions triple lock? Please let this be as much of a miscalculation as it seems.
 
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droid

Well-known member
Despite the perennial foolishness of betting against the stupidity and venality of the British public, I have had a hunch about Crobyn being next PM for the last couple of weeks and I'm now at the stage where Im willing go public and risk extending my terrible record of political predictions plus the well-deserved ridicule that will ensue when I am most probably proved wrong.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
I'm not ready yet to believe that Labour has any chance of winning this, but the Tories are in chaos, with the once-faithful media openly criticising Theresa May, and laying bare the blatant hypocrisy of her criticisms of Corbyn as weak and indecisive.

Policy questions seem secondary (as important as they are) to the shattering of this 'strong and stable' bollocks once and for all.

Favourite moment of the day: "At the Labour launch Jeremy Corbyn welcomes the U-turn. He says that if George Osborne is now doing something useful with his life, that is to be welcomed."
 
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john eden

male pale and stale
The point is that Labour's chances are getting better, which is about as good as it gets at this stage.
 

droid

Well-known member
I dont think Labour will get a majority, but I think the chances of some kind of coalition leading to a Corbyn leadership have increased.
 

droid

Well-known member
2015 results gave Lab/Libs/SNP 296 to Tories 331.

Labour are now (according to yougov at least) polling higher than Milliband. Its not beyond the realms of possibility any more.
 
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