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Thread: Trump

  1. #1516
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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    There may not be a silver bullet, but the investigation could bring down everyone close to him and force him out. Meaningful collusion is a plausible.

    Regardless, it doesnt really matter unless the dems retake the houses. They will take the Alabama seat in December and are currently running at 46.8% for congress and in the high 50's in the generic ballot. Its a real possibility.
    Wasnt around last week to predict the PA result, but had been following the polls and had a gut feeling Lamb would take it, especially after Tump's kiss of death.

    But Im gonna go on the record now and predict a Dem Tsunami in November. I think its gonna be far worse than expected for the GOP & is being underegged by the generic ballot. 13-17 point shift, maybe more, 270+ seats for the dems, minimum 240, a huge seat shift comparable to 1964, with a shit ton of new dem candidates, followed by a GOP implosion.

    Senate is till 50/50 though.

  2. #1517
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    My thinking is that a lot of Trump voters are basically like UKip voters and can be won over by a combination of depressed GOP turnout, radical (by US standards) new Sanders type candidates and more right wing Lamb style dems in the more conservative Republican constituencies.

  3. #1518
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    All presuming there isnt a war or a major terrorist attack in the meantime, though this could also play against the GOP depending on the circumstances.

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  5. #1520
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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    But Im gonna go on the record now and predict a Dem Tsunami in November
    just saw this post. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I also never underestimate the Dem ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

  6. #1521
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    interesting House of Reps Dem primary here today, btw. well not my part of Chicago, but still Chicago + near suburbs.

    gonna see if left lib (by U.S. standards) challenger Newman can defeat anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, relatively pro-Trump incumbent Lipinski.

    so far Lipinski is handily winning Chicago part of his district but Newman's killing him in suburban Cook County.

    all the internal divisions of the Dems in a nutshell, tho also the nastiness of Chicago politics is a world unto itself.

  7. #1522
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    + Lipinski gonna take it barring a late miracle for Newman, largely due to his legislative buds gerrymandering the district to ward off just such a progressive challenge

    vicious primary, Planned Parenthood etc + LGBT orgs backed Newman hard, Blue Dog Dems backed Lipinski. the DCCC said fuck this + stayed out.

    in other news our gubernatorial race will as expected be between two highly odious billionaires, so looking forward to that

    one is a much more terrible Mitt Romney vulture capitalist, the other is v close Rahm ally/developer/the kind of Jew who makes my half-Jewish side ashamed

    Illinois politics, truly the way to feel good about democracy

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  9. #1523
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    51% to 49% though. Seems much closer than it should have been.

  10. #1524
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    Kushner shared confidential info with the Saudis which was then used in an internal purge.


  11. #1525
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    Not doing so well with the ladies:


  12. #1526
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    John fucking Bolton. That prick should be rotting in jail.

  13. #1527
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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    John fucking Bolton. That prick should be rotting in jail.
    craner is still a huge fan. says hes a man with principles and backbone.

    JohnBolton.jpg
    Last edited by luka; 22-03-2018 at 10:46 PM.

  14. #1528
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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    51% to 49% though. Seems much closer than it should have been.
    can interpret on 2 fronts

    1) does phenomenon of progressive Dem candidates taking on more centrist incumbents, sometimes against party establishment wishes, signify stronger Dem base shift to left?

    2) how far left can Dem candidates go before it starts to hurt them in the general?

    obv House in aggregate much more significant national indicator than individual districts, + all this seems a bit reading tea leaves, we'll see what's what in November

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  16. #1530
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    This is arguably the most dangerous thing he's done so far. The possibility of war just hugely increased.

    Monbiot, bless em tried a citizen's arrest of Bolton a few years back.

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