Trump
- Thread starter Leo
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Biden has seemed like he was in mental decline for the better part of a decade, tho possibly it's worse lately, hard to tell
either way he's a terrible fucking candidate
the national Democratic establishment is fucking terrible in general and they couldn't have been more openly rooting for this if they tried so it's not like a surprise
"last time we ran a centrist whose only selling point was electability, no actively liked, had a ton of baggage, and wasn't a good campaigner, and that went awesome"
either way he's a terrible fucking candidate
the national Democratic establishment is fucking terrible in general and they couldn't have been more openly rooting for this if they tried so it's not like a surprise
"last time we ran a centrist whose only selling point was electability, no actively liked, had a ton of baggage, and wasn't a good campaigner, and that went awesome"
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I'm not voting for that motherfucker
it doesn't really matter cos I don't live in a swing state
but seriously the DNC etc couldn't have found a better to dampen voter enthusiasm if they were actively trying, which it seems they basically are
Democrats, always managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or in this case the jaws of hope of victory
it doesn't really matter cos I don't live in a swing state
but seriously the DNC etc couldn't have found a better to dampen voter enthusiasm if they were actively trying, which it seems they basically are
Democrats, always managing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, or in this case the jaws of hope of victory
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
1) doddering grandpa is much more lovable when he's harmless
2) Obama gave him Biden a vast amount of good feelings, and insulation from criticism on racial grounds (busing etc)
3) everyone outside Trump's base was much less desperate pre-Trump
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's not like it's over, Bernie still has a shot
he has a lot of $$$, his base is enthusiastic, he's widely liked and respected throughout the Democratic electorate, and the delegate count is still pretty close
he's vastly better at public speaking and debating, partially cos he's really good at it and partially cos Biden is somehow so terrible
and to my understanding people, at least people who'd vote in Democratic primaries, tend to mostly like his policies when asked directly
but Super Tuesday was rough. seems crazy to me that people would look at 2016 and think a shittier, less competent version of Hilary is the answer, but here we are.
he has a lot of $$$, his base is enthusiastic, he's widely liked and respected throughout the Democratic electorate, and the delegate count is still pretty close
he's vastly better at public speaking and debating, partially cos he's really good at it and partially cos Biden is somehow so terrible
and to my understanding people, at least people who'd vote in Democratic primaries, tend to mostly like his policies when asked directly
but Super Tuesday was rough. seems crazy to me that people would look at 2016 and think a shittier, less competent version of Hilary is the answer, but here we are.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
If it's Biden, the world is totally fucked. How could that guy possibly win? Trump would take him apart. Making the same mistake twice in a row is unforgivable.
The age of all these guys too - 73, 77, 78.
The age of all these guys too - 73, 77, 78.
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Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I know, and it's worrying. Having said that, I wouldn't mind betting that Sanders'll outlive Trump, who's five years his junior.
Leo
Well-known member
some if this is pretty predictable, though, isn't it?
after 3+ years of chaos and extremism, people crave calm and normalcy (not extremism in the opposite direction).
enthusiasm for bernie is clustered geographically and demographically, and he hasn't demonstrated an ability to broaden that base.
youth rallies are awesome but it's been proven time and again that young people don't actually show up and vote in meaningful numbers, while the most reliable voters are older one who typically lean moderate.
African Americans, particularly women, are the core of the democratic base. Bernie has never done well in that demo, and they largely have positive views of Biden from his time with Obama.
the other sizable portion of the democratic base is white suburban women, who again skew moderate and have never warmed to strong progressive positions.
I said upthread I had no idea which dem I'd vote for, they were all either weak or unelectable. Bernie could more than hold his own on the debate stage versus trump...in fact, my biggest fear is he gets so worked up that he has another heart attack! Biden is a really weak choice who could get creamed in a one-on-one debate, but a lot of it just depends on how fed up people are with the trump chaos.
after 3+ years of chaos and extremism, people crave calm and normalcy (not extremism in the opposite direction).
enthusiasm for bernie is clustered geographically and demographically, and he hasn't demonstrated an ability to broaden that base.
youth rallies are awesome but it's been proven time and again that young people don't actually show up and vote in meaningful numbers, while the most reliable voters are older one who typically lean moderate.
African Americans, particularly women, are the core of the democratic base. Bernie has never done well in that demo, and they largely have positive views of Biden from his time with Obama.
the other sizable portion of the democratic base is white suburban women, who again skew moderate and have never warmed to strong progressive positions.
I said upthread I had no idea which dem I'd vote for, they were all either weak or unelectable. Bernie could more than hold his own on the debate stage versus trump...in fact, my biggest fear is he gets so worked up that he has another heart attack! Biden is a really weak choice who could get creamed in a one-on-one debate, but a lot of it just depends on how fed up people are with the trump chaos.
droid
Well-known member
Im sympathetic to the 'moderates stand a better chance' argument. The US is insanely conservative, the media is unrelentingly hostile to anyone to the left of Pinochet, most Americans can't even conceive of real positive political change and it is supported by polling data.
However. Sanders is generally popular, and himself and Biden are more or less neck and neck in national polls when it comes to beating Trump, it varies but the each have about a 3-8 point advantage. Enough to make it 50/50 or slightly better, certainly enough to give each a solid chance.
But only one of these candidates is capable of speaking without stumbling and is aware of what year it is and where he is at any given moment. How anyone can watch the recent performances by Biden and think he's a viable candidate for anything other than a nursing home bed is beyond me. If it was any other candidate from the original pool Id say yeah - even Bloomberg - Biden is just catastrophically weak, the worst possible option.
However. Sanders is generally popular, and himself and Biden are more or less neck and neck in national polls when it comes to beating Trump, it varies but the each have about a 3-8 point advantage. Enough to make it 50/50 or slightly better, certainly enough to give each a solid chance.
But only one of these candidates is capable of speaking without stumbling and is aware of what year it is and where he is at any given moment. How anyone can watch the recent performances by Biden and think he's a viable candidate for anything other than a nursing home bed is beyond me. If it was any other candidate from the original pool Id say yeah - even Bloomberg - Biden is just catastrophically weak, the worst possible option.
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Leo
Well-known member
the typical American thought Obama was a huge progressive leap, when in fact he was moderate/center-left at most. incremental change (like Obamacare) under a veneer of "progressive" tends to garner more support than revolution.
also, national polls are kind of meaningless in the primary stage. "national" could be dominated by people in the northeast who tend to be more liberal progressive. dem versus trump in state polls are the only ones that matter.
And I hesitate to mention it because it's not a fair comparison, but some people here view Sanders as a Corbyn equivalent, a guy who is very progressive and rallies enthusiasm from a young base but gets crushed in an election because he's too far out and unable to expand support beyond the base. it's not apples-to-apples, but close enough for low-information voters to be weary of Bernie's ability to win.
looking like four more years of trump, unless dems/independents/moderate republicans are truly fed up and motivated. if that happens, they'd vote for a ham sandwich over trump. it's our only hope. that and coronavirus tanking the economy.
also, national polls are kind of meaningless in the primary stage. "national" could be dominated by people in the northeast who tend to be more liberal progressive. dem versus trump in state polls are the only ones that matter.
And I hesitate to mention it because it's not a fair comparison, but some people here view Sanders as a Corbyn equivalent, a guy who is very progressive and rallies enthusiasm from a young base but gets crushed in an election because he's too far out and unable to expand support beyond the base. it's not apples-to-apples, but close enough for low-information voters to be weary of Bernie's ability to win.
looking like four more years of trump, unless dems/independents/moderate republicans are truly fed up and motivated. if that happens, they'd vote for a ham sandwich over trump. it's our only hope. that and coronavirus tanking the economy.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
I spose this didn't stop Trump.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
if there was a ton of data showing that only a (by U.S. standards) centrist had a shot at beating Trump then OK. preferably not a lukewarm nothing retread like Biden, but still, OK.
but that isn't the case. I'm not saying it shows conclusively shows Bernie/Warren will do better either, just that it certainly doesn't show that only a centrist can beat Trump.
Leo, you're making a ton of suppositions. it cuts both ways, at the very least.
do I know how well Bernie would do with African-American women or suburban white women, in a general? no.
you know one thing I do know? a weak centrist candidate disastrously failed to win over white working-class voters in 2016. Bernie, who actually cares about working-class issues, has a better shot at that demo than Biden.
but that isn't the case. I'm not saying it shows conclusively shows Bernie/Warren will do better either, just that it certainly doesn't show that only a centrist can beat Trump.
Leo, you're making a ton of suppositions. it cuts both ways, at the very least.
do I know how well Bernie would do with African-American women or suburban white women, in a general? no.
you know one thing I do know? a weak centrist candidate disastrously failed to win over white working-class voters in 2016. Bernie, who actually cares about working-class issues, has a better shot at that demo than Biden.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
and no, I doubt Bernie could make good on most of campaign promises
it's not like Biden (or gods save us, Bloomberg) would either
it's not like Biden (or gods save us, Bloomberg) would either
version
Well-known member
I remember most of the chatter being about her overall health after she collapsed at that 9/11 memorial and something fell out of her trousers, but I definitely saw people questioning her mental health too. That clip of her making the face at the balloons was clipped and edited and all sorts as evidence.