Trump

padraig (u.s.) said:

do I know how well Bernie would do with African-American women or suburban white women, in a general? no.

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actually, yes we do. look at South Carolina, where Biden beat sanders in the African amareican vote by over 50%. or super Tuesday, where he consistently beat sanders in that demo and carried white suburbs. Virginia, where Biden spent literally nothing.

also, Bernie's numbers among African Americans have not improved since the 2016 primary. he's essentially been running for president for the past five years and nothing's changed, what leads you to believe it's going to happen in the next few months, particularly against an opponent who is generally liked by that voter segment?

you know one thing I do know?

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well, here's another one: the blue wave that allowed the dems to win the house in 2018 consisted of literally all moderates. that's not bullshit polling with margins of error, that's actual votes cast by people motivated to get off their ass, one of the biggest mid-term voter turnouts ever. to support moderate candidates. AOC campaigned in Texas for a house progressive who ended up getting crushed by a moderate dem. Bernie's brand of progressive populism is great but just doesn't play outside liberal districts. it's not a national feeling. the fact that he hasn't expanded his base in five years proves it. you want data? that's some data, right?

scariest thing is people seem to be voting for what they think Biden is, or think he represents, instead of who he actually is today. the fond memories of the Obama loyalist. in reality, the guy who eviscerated Paul Ryan in the 2012 vice-presidential debate is no longer.

padraig (u.s.) said:

I'm talking about the general, not the primary

or are you suggesting that Trump is generally liked by Black Americans?

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what? I said Biden won big in south Carolina and across Super Tuesday states because he's generally liked by African Americans, and he coupled that with support from suburban white women. do you think those demos would swing for trump in the general? I think not.

padraig (u.s.) said:

Tbh I don't think u know fuck all about the "national feeling"

Tbc, neither do I. Neither does anyone, in that sense.

If there was any lesson of 2016, surely that was it

I'm not remotely a Bernie bro. I think Warren would be a much better president (unfortunately, much worse at campaigning)

But I am sick of this electability argument

You/anyone else haven't made a conclusive case against him, only one that he's not necessarily a superior candidate to a centrist

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dunno what to tell you. the "case against him" isn't coming from me, it's coming from voters. you just had proof in a slew of states that Biden turned out the vote across various demographic groups in big numbers while sanders was unable to expand his base. but by all means, ignore inconvenient data.

I also kinda don't get your argument because and I've said a few times upthread that sanders IS the superior candidate in terms of his grasp of the issues, energy and debating ability. he'd be much better against trump on the debate stage, obviously. I'm just pointing out that that has not converted to votes. joe's the shittier candidate, but he appeals to a much broader base.

votes are not assumptions. I'm looking at the facts: who just got the votes from those demographic groups. not rally size, poll numbers, enthusiasm, etc.

you're so hung up on the general election, ok...doesn't it make sense that the candidate who had the larger, broader bases of support in the primary will have the better chance in the general?