Trump

droid

droid

Well-known member
No, because presumably the vast majority of democrats will vote for the dem candidate anyway.

And of course youre ignoring the fact that Bernie polls at about 70% with independents, something thats totally missed in most primaries and gives him a big advantage.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Leo said:
what? I said Biden won big in south Carolina and across Super Tuesday states because he's generally liked by African Americans, and he coupled that with support from suburban white women. do you think those demos would swing for trump in the general? I think not.
Click to expand...

I'm looking at this from an outsider's perspective, of course, but I remember being very surprised by Trump's victory because it simply didn't occur to me that very many women would vote for such an obvious misogynist. But in the end, while he was overall more popular with men, the gender gap wasn't as big as I thought it'd be. Loads of women - mostly white ones, of course - clearly think he's great.
 
Leo

Leo

Well-known member
I haven't seen that 70% number for support of independents, where's that from?

this is from early February:

National GE, @Reuters/@Ipsos Among Independents:

Warren 34% (+5)
Trump 29%

Buttigieg 35% (+8)
Trump 27%

Bloomberg 39% (+14)
Trump 25%

Biden 43% (+14)
Trump 29%

Sanders 46% (+18)
Trump 28%
 
IdleRich

IdleRich

IdleRich
Definitely the primaries are not set up in a way that they select the candidate best placed to beat the incumbent. That's a problem for both parties but right now it's a problem for the Dems obviously... but there is no particular reason that I can see for the most popular among Dems being the most popular in the country.
 
B

blissblogger

Well-known member
if one thing has been proven in the last four or so years, it's that the ability to give nice speeches with well constructed arguments and flourishes of fine rhetoric has no effect whatsoever...

it's been a downpour of eloquence from both the commentariat and from professional politicians, nonstop, and it's had zero suasional traction... as someone who works with words it's really disheartening but there it is

the electorate doesn't care about the tradition of high-minded oratory (Adam Schiff during impeachment giving speeches that thrill MSNBC hosts and get them gushing that these are political texts for the ages, speeches that will be studied by future generations)

regular folks go with their gut - a gut sense of who the person is, whether they understand them and are on their side

that's how Trump won, he got that across however disjointedly - that he understood his bases's fears, resentments, grievances

and that's the level on which Biden has a chance

he's not a communicator in the professorial way that media professional types (like me) appreciate - and loved about Obama, and also Warren - but he can get across the basic values with warmth and conviction
 
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padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
blissblogger said:
and that's the level on which Biden has a chance
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how is this not true for Bernie?

if anything he's often criticized for being too much on gut level, on pathos

i.e. when pundits etc are making some lazy Trump/Bernie flip sides of populism coin comparison

this ain't Adlai Stevenson we're talking about here

that argument might hold true for Biden v. Warren, but I don't buy that he has an edge there over Bernie at all

especially this diminished, possibly senile version of Biden
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Leo said:
you're so hung up on the general election, ok...doesn't it make sense that the candidate who had the larger, broader bases of support in the primary will have the better chance in the general?
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of course that's what I'm hung up on. it's the only election that matters. the primary only matters in relation to the general. how is that not patently obvious?

and also, as other people said, that logic doesn't follow at all

no offense, but that's such a basic misunderstanding of the American electoral system works that it's kinda dumbfounding

"electability" is really a measure of how you think a candidate will do with specific blocs of voters in swing states

the only relation to primary voting that matters is how likely you think primary voters are to vote/not vote for that person in the general
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
so no, I haven't seen or heard you or anyone else make a convincing argument why Biden would do better IN A GENERAL ELECTION

not some vague bullshit about the national feeling, or how Joe Biden is better at talking simple feelings to the common folk

make the specific argument that Joe Biden would do better with swing voters in swing states IN A GENERAL ELECTION

or don't make it
 
Leo

Leo

Well-known member
first off, I'll make any argument I want, so spare me the sanctimonious lecture on what I'm allowed to say or not say.

the ONLY real, concrete indication of how candidates might do in a general election AT THIS POINT IN TIME is their performance with voters in the primary. it's an indicator, based on actual votes. why is that so hard to understand? I know the general is different from a primary, duh.

also, pointing out characteristics of a candidate is not an endorsements of a candidate. you've decided I've endorsed Bloomberg and Biden when I've done no such things and have even stated a few times how I think Biden is a shit candidate.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
lmao u know what's sanctimonious? a New Yorker pontificating on the national feeling

I'll tell u what's a concrete indication of the general election: THE LAST GENERAL ELECTION

you haven't made a coherent argument yet

which isn't surprising, as people from the British isles seem to have an alarmingly better grasp of how the American electoral system than you do

tbh you're just a standin here for every bad "electability" argument, so it's whatever

It don't really matter. One of them will win the primary, and then win or lose the general.

I'm just sick unto death of this electability nonsense. It was a bad, wrong argument in 2016, and it's a bad, probably wrong argument now.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
like, I said I'm done with this particular argument in the sense of trying to "win" it

Leo said:
doesn't it make sense that the candidate who had the larger, broader bases of support in the primary will have the better chance in the general?
Click to expand...
but I still want to explain why this specifically is dead wrong. there was a ton written about it during the last election cycle.

I turned up the following with about two minutes of effort, both from the highly credible sources in re numbers (538, and a polisci professor), if you look there's much more

primary turnout means nothing for the general election

primary wins are not predictive of general election success
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
sometimes doing poorly in the primary in a particular state or region is a red flag for the general

example: Hilary's poor showing in the rust belt against Bernie in 2016 prefigured her disastrous showing there in the general

but it's definitely not a guarantee, and when it happens it's for specific reasons related to that particular state or region

rather than "well he got he more votes more votes in the primary, therefore he'll do better in the general"
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
and it's not a failure to communicate

it's not at all hard to understand

people who think Biden is more "electable" have failed, here or elsewhere, to make an actual solid case for it

it's always some combination of vagueness (national feeling, empathy), fallacies (as noted above), pathos (appeal to fear), and/or red-baiting

which doesn't really matter admittedly. all that matters is whether enough voters believe he's more electable, and if that outweighs other criteria.

which seems to be the case.

that's different from any of the electability arguments being good and/or sound.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
the most likely outcome at this point is surely Biden wins the nomination then gets absolutely eviscerated during the general campaign and loses

then in 4 years (assuming we haven't mostly died in nuclear fire or by some new and worse pandemic, or Trump hasn't become President for life)

we'll have this same stupid electability argument again and some electable craven will be pitted against Mike Pence or some other cryptofascist

tho perhaps they won't need to the crypto prefix by that point

I'm just so sick of watching spineless, gutless Democrats replay the same rigged game

there are many, many, many reasons to dislike Nancy Pelosi but she at least has guts (Obama did too tbf, in his own way; he's just such a conciliator by nature)
 
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