Trump
- Thread starter Leo
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
self-preservation after witnessing his complete failure with COVID, one assumes
not a huge lead for Biden there like - ahem - black voters, but a significant swing, from roughly +10 (for Trump) with seniors 2016 to -10 now
and I agree with droid - under normal circumstances we could expect a very solid Biden victory if not a landslide
as it is, who the fuck knows. Vegas has Biden as the betting favorite but not overwhelmingly so, which seems about right.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
at this point everyone besides people directly enriching themselves from the Trump administration would be vastly better off if he just died
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
It's not like that would extinguish the social currents that have led to this, but do you think the movement would dissipate without its figurehead?
I mean Pence possibly has some traction with the fundy contingent but he's pretty much a charisma void as far as I can see.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
no. it would probably fracture some without him to coalesce disparate elements around, but it definitely wouldn't go away.
he's ultimately a symptom, not the cause
rather, it's that he as President - and his administration - are so damaging that any chaos in the wake of his (natural) death would be well worth it
I came around on that point a few months ago after initially arguing the opposite in the COVID thread here and elsewhere irl
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
his crazy supporters are going to do their thing no matter what
as we just saw, they don't include the military, so there's only so much hairiness they can cause
if the military - especially in its upper echelons - largely supported him, or was divided, it would be a different matter
as we just saw, they don't include the military, so there's only so much hairiness they can cause
if the military - especially in its upper echelons - largely supported him, or was divided, it would be a different matter
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
having said that, I wouldn't be surprised by some level of unofficial violence leading up the elections, and/or afterward, no matter the outcome
but there's a difference between violence and a civil war or a coup
but there's a difference between violence and a civil war or a coup
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
"Symptom not a cause" is how I've always thought of him.
You're right about the military not supporting him (thank God), but by "hairy" I didn't mean a full-scale coup or actual civil war. But there are enough people who want a civil war, and may even believe they can win one, that there could be a huge amount of terrorism and other sectarian violence.
You're right about the military not supporting him (thank God), but by "hairy" I didn't mean a full-scale coup or actual civil war. But there are enough people who want a civil war, and may even believe they can win one, that there could be a huge amount of terrorism and other sectarian violence.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I mean come on, buddy, you're saying the most blindingly obvious stuff here
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
OK THEN.
I actually think everything will be just fine and we'll all have a jolly laugh over it at Christmas.
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I didn't say that either
come on man this is why people get exasperated with you over politics biz all the time
are sectarian violence - which despite everything, has basically failed to materialize so far - and right-wing terrorism possible? sure
"huge amount" I doubt, between now and November. things don't go from 0 to 60 like that. we'd already be seeing it start.
even what we have seen - people driving cars into crowds, for example - seems pretty clearly spontaneous
that's what I'd be worried about, hot tempers and spontaneous violence on the street
a "huge amount" of terrorism would require planning, organization, etc on a large scale. that ain't alt-right/boogaloo/Proud Boys.
it lay fallow for awhile, but America has been living with the threat of organized right-wing terrorism since at least the 80s
tho black people have always lived with it, of course
come on man this is why people get exasperated with you over politics biz all the time
are sectarian violence - which despite everything, has basically failed to materialize so far - and right-wing terrorism possible? sure
"huge amount" I doubt, between now and November. things don't go from 0 to 60 like that. we'd already be seeing it start.
even what we have seen - people driving cars into crowds, for example - seems pretty clearly spontaneous
that's what I'd be worried about, hot tempers and spontaneous violence on the street
a "huge amount" of terrorism would require planning, organization, etc on a large scale. that ain't alt-right/boogaloo/Proud Boys.
it lay fallow for awhile, but America has been living with the threat of organized right-wing terrorism since at least the 80s
tho black people have always lived with it, of course
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
also, sectarian violence and terrorism are just as possible if he/his supporters don't accept the election results
if he dies in office, at least he's guaranteed to not be President any more
if he dies in office, at least he's guaranteed to not be President any more
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Yes I know, I was just dicking about.
I see what you mean about attacks so far being generally spontaneous and/or uncoordinated. And while it's become a cliche of journalism to point out that these "lone wolves" are never as lone as all that, I suppose there's a big difference between a bunch of like-minded Anons on 4chan egging on an individual who decides to do something awful and an actual posse working together to coordinate a big attack.
I wonder if the natural paranoia of people in this scene is really a blessing for everyone else, since it's going to make groups very wary of reaching out to other apparently similar groups who might, for all they know, be undercover feds?
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Leo
Well-known member
interesting that back in December, trump was considering skipping debates but has now enlisted Giuliani to push for a four instead of the traditional three, and staring earlier. they're afraid COVID will prompt more vote-by-mail, where people tend to decide earlier in the process. they want trump on stage attacking Biden asap to counter falling poll numbers.