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Thread: Trump

  1. #271

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    Well, this would be another case of being delighted to be wrong.

  2. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leo View Post
    it was a pretty good segment. even better was samantha bee's entire "full frontal" last night (episode 26), brutal. not sure if it's available outside the US: http://samanthabee.com
    Ive warmed to him slightly, despite his gangly try-to-hard awkwardness.

  3. #273
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    in case things aren't surreal enough...

    Evangelical GOP Pastors Call On God To Kill Trump And Make Mike Pence President

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/...president.html

  4. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leo View Post
    Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton on average by about 5 points prior to the leaked video of his sexually aggressive comments. Now, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Monday, he trails by 14.

    It might not matter either way: No candidate in the modern era of polling has ever climbed back from more than 4 points behind over the final month of the campaign to win the presidency.
    No candidate in history has ever worn a wig made from a water buffalo's pubes and an endangered monkey shot by a Colombian coke cartel, either.
    Doin' the Lambeth Warp New: DISSENSUS - THE NOVEL - PM me your email address and I'll add you

  5. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Tea View Post
    No candidate in history has ever worn a wig made from a water buffalo's pubes and an endangered monkey shot by a Colombian coke cartel, either.
    yup, that's why i'm not entirely ruling out his comeback.

  6. #276

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    Someone once told me that the key to succeeding at fantasy football league is not to overreact to the latest results. The same applies here, I think. Not so long ago, Trump was attacking the family of a dead soldier and people thought he was ruined. Later, Clinton's IT troubles and strange fainting episodes began to dominate the news and many of the same people thought he would win. Today he again has no chance, but there is still time between now and the election for more shocking, balance-tipping events to occur and change the perceptions of the voters and the media.

  7. #277
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    that's what everybody says. the difference (and big challenge) now is time is not on his side. would be different if it was still 2-3 months out, but at this point there are fewer undecided voters for him to sway each week, and he only has three weeks left (and early voting has started...the ny times says she might even be able to clinch before election day).

    yes, he has bounced back before, but most voters here don't start really paying attention to the race until after labor day (early september), and he's been losing ground pretty much every week since then.

  8. #278

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    Those who have decided to vote Trump, publicly or privately, will not be deterred by anything that has come out so far, and the media and international reaction will only confirm their decision. That's the impression I'm getting.

  9. #279

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    But there might still be some swing voters who have yet to make up their minds. Or do you think the election is already decided?

  10. #280

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    One possibility is that these controversies are largely occurring in the minds of journalists and other politics-obsessives. They've decided that the debates and video have destroyed Trump's chances and are busy seeking out any evidence that confirms it, but most people simply aren't moved one way or the other.

  11. #281

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    My own (uninformed and distant) impression is that the outcome is really volatile and driven by emotions. Both candidates are heavily compromised and it's easy to imagine more revelations appear that throw the whole thing up in the air again.

  12. #282
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    absolutely, the hardcore trump base (35% of voters) will never leave him, they love him and hate her with a passion...as he said earlier this year, he could shoot someone on fifth avenue and not lose that support. but he can't win a national election with 35-42% of voters, which is where he's been throughout the entire general election. hillary is approaching 50% due in the polls due to the democratic base plus gradual addition of independents, undecideds and former third-party voters.

    as i said earlier, there are fewer undecideds or "persuadables" every week, and that dwindling number is just one of his many problems. i know people who were swayed to hillary (or at least away from voting for trump) by the combination of the first debate and the "pussy" video. the second debate stemmed the tide of more people bailing on trump but didn't do much to improve his numbers. and maybe the reason behind the continued media narrative is because it's supported by data: hillary up 3-4 percent before first debate/pussygate, up 9-11 points after.

    anyway, this is probably the most constructive thing to come out of this whole election: http://www.epicurious.com/expert-adv...ocial_facebook
    Last edited by Leo; 12-10-2016 at 03:54 AM.

  13. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Tea View Post
    It was said many times during the Dem leadership race that Sanders lacks widespread support among non-white voters, but that can hardly be more of a problem for him than for Trump, right? Even if many black and Hispanic voters preferred Clinton, I expect a great majority of them would have seen Sanders as infinitely preferable to a Trump presidency.
    Why do non-white voters love the Clintons?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Corpsey View Post
    Why do non-white voters love the Clintons?
    because bill was the first black president.

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  16. #285
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    I was blind but now I see

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