IdleRich

IdleRich
RE: the US, I guess it depends on how you define that "power". the reason checks and balances have not functioned as intended here is because the republicans have held all three branches of government and have essentially been in agreement with and supportive of trump. it's not that they've been prevented from providing checks, it's that the GOP have chosen to look the other way and do what's in the best interest of their party instead of the best interest of the country.
Yeah, I hear you on the above, but I was thinking more about the way it looks as though the FBI and Mueller etc which are supposed to be independent can be thwarted by Trump appointing a pet DA in which case he's actually above the law.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I seriously don't get why they won't release the advice in full as ordered by parliament. They might even get someone suspended which will make it harder to win next week when every vote could count. To me the obvious conclusion is that there is something in the complete advice which they've deviously missed out of the summary and which will really sink the deal. Or am I missing something?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Brexit debate trundles on in parliament

Ivan Lewis, who was elected as a Labour MP but who is currently suspended over misconduct allegations, is speaking in the Commons now. He says he is very sceptical about holding a second referendum. Those in the Labour party who are pushing the idea now are the same people who opposed the idea of having a referendum when Labour was considering whether to promise one in the 2015 manifesto, he says. He says he favours a Norway plus as the way forward.
Well we should definitely listen to him.
 
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glasshand

dj panic attack
I really wouldn't be that surprised if this deal gets voted through on Tuesday. I think if enough tories believe voting this down will mean Corbyn or Jacob Rees Mogg, they will change their tunes and vote it through just to try hold onto power. chuck a few traitor labour centrists in there too. or would that still not make up the numbers?
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
I have to say it is unlikely, but all the noises being made over the past few days in the right-wing press about the government falling with immediate effect if this vote doesn't go through, show that the Tories' main weapon is fear of what will happen if they don't support May. And of course underestimating the Tories' capacity to close ranks in moments of existential threat, is a fools' game ("Government sources said the whip's office was "looking at all options" to secure the support of the Commons..." - death threats, then?)

But even so, I still don't see how the numbers add up to give May a chance. It would be an epic recovery if she did pass this.

Is there any kind of concise and reasoned guide to what happens next, if it doesn't pass?
OK just found this, no idea of the truth value of any of it: https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...-deal-isn-t-going-pass-so-what-s-going-happen

Bookmakers' odds probably as good a guide as any: 7/5 for a 2nd referendum, 5/6 UK to reapply to join EU by 2027 (vote on 11 Dec not to pass is 1/7 btw)
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
It seems to boil down to May trying to drag the vote over the line by saying "I know you hate this deal but if you vote it down then Labour might get in and you'll hate that even worse". A truly inspiring battle cry which I'm sure you'll all agree could win over any of those who are undecided on which way to vote, it just needs a "Now cry God for Theresa and Saint George" on the end.
Sad thing is though, it might just work. I reckon that the hardcore Brexiteers are a busted flush now, they couldn't force through a vote of no confidence and they surely recognise they can't force through a harder Brexit. So they could be thinking that if they vote against May then they might endanger the whole leaving business. But they totally hate her deal cos it leaves us utterly servile to the EU, though arguably they could claim a "We left the EU so we won" victory of sorts, it's about whether that is more important to them than their professed principles.... hmmm.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Yeah, just watching that now... shame, I was really looking forward to a defeat that would have surely made a second referendum more likely. What happens now then? Vote of no-confidence is on the cards maybe.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Some people are saying that she can't do it unilaterally, that there has to be a vote to delay the vote - is that correct?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Of course if there is a vote of no-confidence or if May does resign - what fucking use is a leadership contest or a GE now when they should be concentrating on (stopping) Brexit?
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
She's going to go cap in hand to the EU, who have only said 134 times that there is no other deal on the table. 135th time lucky?

No doubt the vote to delay the vote can also be delayed. Where did you see that - not read that yet?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Just seen loads of people saying it on twitter, probably not true or you'd hope it would be mentioned by the actual news organisations. Fucking hell what a total mess, can't believe they are going to drag it out longer. It's been said before but it's clear that it's May before party and party before country. And on a personal note, as someone who earns money in pounds and spends it in euros I'm getting poorer by the minute. Thank fuck we changed some over this morning before it crashed by half a percent....
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
A massive sense of drift. There is no-one in charge, no credible people who look as though they could be in charge - all they have to offer is ambition - no appetite to watch these fuckwits fighting over what's left. And if they can delay this vote to the new year it will just go on like that.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
May's deal has given up without a fight which means that (unless something completely unforeseen happens which it probably will) we are left with almost a straight choice between "No Deal" and "No Brexit". Now, seeing as pretty much everyone in the world agrees that No Deal would be the worst imaginable result, will destroy the UK's economy, would mean we need to charter planes to bring in medicines and that there will be a traffic jam from Dover to John O'Groats... in fact that if we go for No Deal we might as well kill all our old and sick right now and burn all our pounds in a huge bonfire - it's pretty clear that that will be the choice we go for.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Actually Baboon, Guardian has now printed

Asked whether the ERG will vote in favour of a delay, @SteveBakerHW tells me "not likely". So PM really might not be able to delay at all.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Also

James Duddridge MP
@JamesDuddridge
The PM does not get to pull a vote. The House will have to vote to pull a vote. I will oppose. We need to see this deal off once and for all.
And

OK this is now looking like a serious problem for the PM. @andreajenkyns tells me she will also vote AGAINST a delay. This could actually be far more dangerous than the defeat she faced tomorrow. If a PM can't even delay a vote, can she govern?
Jesus.
 
May's deal has given up without a fight which means that (unless something completely unforeseen happens which it probably will) we are left with almost a straight choice between "No Deal" and "No Brexit". Now, seeing as pretty much everyone in the world agrees that No Deal would be the worst imaginable result, will destroy the UK's economy, would mean we need to charter planes to bring in medicines and that there will be a traffic jam from Dover to John O'Groats... in fact that if we go for No Deal we might as well kill all our old and sick right now and burn all our pounds in a huge bonfire - it's pretty clear that that will be the choice we go for.

How much trouble would there really be if Brexit was abandoned? Not a lot, probably fewer heads cracked than there were for either foxhunting or tuition fees. Deep down, who really gives a fuck? An economic rebound would soon settle things down.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
No, that's out of date now (edit: what I said above), seems the government have said there is a loophole which means that they can pull the vote without voting on whether or not to vote. And the ERG looks to have grudgingly accepted it.
ps the pound has fallen by another half a euro cent against the euro since I said that above.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
I think the key people to answer that would be in the big leave voting constituencies surely? I've seen stories that there's polling stating a credible amount have changed their mind but nothing definitive yet. Anyone know? Corbyn's office said last week that "private polling" (i.e. presumably polling that is going to remain invisible to the public) had found the opposite, quelle surprise. As Rich says, What. A. Mess.
 
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