IdleRich

IdleRich
How much trouble would there really be if Brexit was abandoned? Not a lot, probably fewer heads cracked than there were for either foxhunting or tuition fees. Deep down, who really gives a fuck? An economic rebound would soon settle things down.
Almost none I reckon. A few angry letters from some disappointed racists I guess.
Cancelling Brexit is a) the easiest thing to do now b) the best thing to do in terms of the economy and the country's overall prosperity and c) probably the most popular thing to do. Which makes it kinda frustrating that a lame duck leader is desperate to do anything except that.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I'm being a little dismissive there. The pro-brexit march yesterday attracted about 3,000 in comparison to the 700,000 who marched against it a few weeks ago... but that is presumably because all the middle class little Englanders from the home counties don't want to actually be physically associated with Tommy Robinson and all the working class racist thugs who marched with him and whose politics they share.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
Because it would also mean self-destruction of the Conservative Party and collapse of their vote. A lot of winning for everyone else.
But Labour seem to have been basing their strategy on Conservatives delivering some kind of Brexit and it being so shit that they get voted out forever. In other words it's quite possibly that they are equally fucked either way. I certainly hope so.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Angry Tory rebels and Labour MPs vowed that they would attempt to force the government to hold a vote.
However, a government source says there would be no vote on a business motion to cancel Tuesday’s vote. “We are replacing the business with a new statement but it isn’t a motion and therefore isn’t voteable,”
Well that clears that up. Apologies for the confusion, I should have known that. Obviously.

Children’s minister Nadhim Zahawi said on Twitter that the prime minister had “listened to colleagues” and would now “head to Brussels to push back on the backstop.”
Equally she hasn't been listening to Brussels who have categorically said several times that there is going to be no renegotiation. They should just completely refuse to meet her, that would be fucking funny.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
I love all the headlines about EU diplomats being 'bewildered' by Theresa May suggesting new negotiations. They should arrange to meet her in a coffee shop or something.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
OK, now we're getting to the point in the evening where someone has ordered shots (half an hour til midnight?). Boris Johnson - or someone even worse - to be Prime Minister next week, then. Christ.
 

droid

Well-known member
Public image shorn of artifice. Britain can finally take its rightful place as global laughing stock, it's already stained patina of respectability shredded beyond hope of repair. The glorious humiliation of it all.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
How dare you openly ridicule my country!

OK, so the leadership contest would take up to six weeks. What the actual fuck.
 

Numbers

Well-known member
Trump, Putin and now maybe Boris Johnson. Add to that Salvini as the actual strongman of the Italian government and half of the G8, if it were still in place, ends up in the hands of these muppets.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I can actually see why the Tories are pissed off, with swearing blind that the vote would go ahead and making her drones go out and say that right up to (in some cases after in fact) the moment it was cancelled May treated parliament and country with contempt and made her supposed allies look like utter clowns.
Basically she treated everyone high-handedly and gambled that the situation was too fraught to waste time on a vote of no confidence (which it is)... blown up in her face. Fuck me.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Behind me in the supermarket queue just now, a woman was aptly buying a one litre bottle of Captain Morgan and a copy of TV Choice. BLOCK IT ALL OUT.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I don't think that they have enough votes to topple the Maybot so it should be back to business as unusual tomorrow. I do think that by delaying the vote she has scuppered the chances of another referendum somewhat. Presumably she hopes to delay things so that there is no time to do anything but accept her deal or just settle for no deal. If her deal was rejected now then it would be No Deal or find a new solution and that could only be a second referendum. Maybe that's off the table now.
 

firefinga

Well-known member
As far as I have understood, there will be a Brexit in March 2019 in any event, right?

If they topple May, then it'S gonna be a hard Brexit.

If they fail, it's gonna be the deal that's on the table.


May is a "dead woman walking" in any event. However, didn't Major survive votes of confidence against him as well?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"As far as I have understood, there will be a Brexit in March 2019 in any event, right?"
That's the line of the UK government. However the EU have now given a ruling that the UK could unilaterally decide not to leave. In other words they are allowing us a way out. As it seems to be clear that if we do go it's either May's Deal (shit) or No Deal (shitter) and the polls suggest that there is now a majority of the country against Brexit (though polls have been very wrong on this issue before) then a brave UK leader could do the right thing and prevent Brexit.
In short, the answer to your question is "No".
But sadly we lack the leadership to prevent it so probably there will be. A few days ago there seemed a slight hope that it could be prevented, rather than by a brave and clear-sighted leader, by a kind of joint inability to agree anything else. I was hoping for something like
1. May's deal voted down (as it's not "hard" enough for the Brexiteers in parliament)
2. Country left with No Deal or find another solution...
3. ... EU will not renegotiate so the only possible other solution is No Brexit
4. No Deal too "hard" from the non-Brexiteers in parliament to go through as it is
5. To decide between No Deal and No Brexit we have another referendum
6. No Brexit wins, loads of whiny racists cry and the pound rises against the euro making my life much easier (which is the main thing)
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I am aware of the possibility of revoking, but that's the least plausible scenario.
Is it though? Assuming that the EU won't negotiate again (which is a reasonable assumption as they have repeatedly insisted it is the case) there are three possibilities:

1. May's deal
2. No Deal Brexit
3. Referendum

The fact that May did not dare put her deal before parliament cos it was certain to be defeated, along with the fact that it cannot be changed, tells me it is pretty much dead. So really we are facing a straight choice between No Deal and a second referendum. I'm hopeful that enough MPs recognise that that would be suicide to make another referendum a real possibility, maybe that's wishful thinking but I think the analysis is sound.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I should say that the latest polls show a clear majority for cancelling Brexit so if there is a referendum....
 

glasshand

dj panic attack
I didn't want us to leave the EU when we voted 1st time, but if there's a 2nd referendum I would be unsure about voting remain again, would kinda hope it wasn't an option on there.

I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.

I'm not sure Remain would win anyway - if there's like 'no deal, deal, remain' on the ballot - would that split the first Remain vote between the left leaning people who now think we should go on with Brexit and hope labour can sort it out (me, and your Novara types) and the FBPE-type remainers, both left and right? would we then end up with no deal getting more votes?
 
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