What is Labour’s strategy? Let’s take a second referendum. Whatever the leadership decides, it is not even clear that a majority can be found for it. One Labour MP – who resigned from the frontbench in 2016 – tells me that, in a free vote, “the parliamentary Labour party would be split down the middle, possibly [with] even more against. It’s just they aren’t the people on the telly all the time!” In the shadow cabinet, there are those, such as Diane Abbott (the single most influential Labour MP in Corbyn’s inner circle, a point neglected by most commentators for depressing reasons) and Keir Starmer, sympathetic to a second vote, with laudable reasons, too; others, such as Richard Burgon, against; and others, such as John McDonnell, pragmatically straddling the divide. Around 100 Labour MPs were predicted to declare in favour of a second referendum today; in the end, just 71 did so. If half of the parliamentary party voted for a second referendum, that would amount to less than a fifth of parliament; well over 100 Tory MPs would have to support it too. It is really difficult to see this happening, meaning that Labour would risk alienating its leave voters for nothing.
If Labour imposed a three-line whip in support of a referendum, shadow cabinet members representing leave constituencies have told me they will resign. If a referendum becomes the only option left, then Labour will have to campaign for remain, and make a great fist of it. But don’t have any illusions. The campaign will be even more bitter and vicious than the last; the culture war that has enveloped the country will get worse; millions of leave voters will be angered and even more disillusioned than before; and under a slogan of “tell them again”, leave may well win once more. Tory rule is the source of the nation’s ills: wishing to remove this Conservative government – and the only means of doing so is a Labour victory – is not putting “party before country”, it’s an attempt to save the nation from the most calamitous administration since the war. Of Labour’s 54 Tory-held target seats, 41 voted leave. Just 13 opted for remain. Without holding on to its existing leavers and winning over more, Labour cannot win an election, and the injustices that helped lead to the Brexit vote will be exacerbated.
