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Thread: UK EU Referendum Aftermath

  1. #616
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    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    If they get in via a November or spring election I imagine their first move would be to negotiate an extension of article 50. If that happens I think there would either be a second referendum or, more likely a deal that includes the custom union and a soft Brexit.

    The calculation at the moment is whether they can afford to alienate the UKIP & Leave contingent they picked up last time. Presumably the vast majority of hardcore remainers will stick with them despite the ambiguity, because there's no real alternative. Ideal scenario is for EU pressure to force a Tory split with the DUP and bring down the govt in October.
    I've always read the Lab leadership's opposition to Brexit as part of their hostility to neo-liberalism i.e. political rather than the about electoral triangulation. Maybe I'm wrong about this, I don't know - the Ian Dunt article I've linked above suggests as much, saying that the "cap on spending limits" argument is bollocks. Anyway, I thought electoral triangulation was mere Blairite Devilry, and it was about sticking to your principles?

  2. #617
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    Principles are important but not of much help if you cant get elected.

    Its a difficult line to walk and Labour arent doing with much grace, but the logic is sound, I think.

    The most apposite poll Ive seen recently was the one that said about 60% of the UK is sick of Brexit anymore and just wants it all over with.

  3. #618
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    Well the motion for Labour to support a second referendum has been carried: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live
    Doin' the Lambeth Warp New: DISSENSUS - THE NOVEL - PM me your email address and I'll add you

  4. #619
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    posted for archival purpose only

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  6. #620
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    Today's buzzphrase: extension of the Brexit transition period.

  7. #621
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    peston on fb:
    Hello from Brussels and the EU Council that promised a Brexit breakthrough and delivered nothing.
    So on the basis of conversations with well placed sources, this is how I think the Brexit talks are placed (WARNING: if you are fearful of a no-deal Brexit, or are of a nervous disposition, stop reading now).
    1) Forget about having any clue when we leave about the nature and structure of the UKs future trading relationship with the EU. The government heads of the EU27 have rejected Chequers. Wholesale. And they regard it as far too late to put in place the building blocks of that future relationship before we leave on 29 March 2019. So any Political Declaration on the future relationship will be waffly, vague and general. It will be what so many MPs detest: a blind Brexit. The PM may say that wont happen. No one here (except perhaps her own Downing St team) believes her.
    2) The earliest date for a deal on Brexit terms - that vacuous Political Declaration and the Withdrawal Agreement - is now the Council in mid December. But even that date may prove too challenging.
    3) The gulf between the EU27 and May, as you know, is over how to keep open the Northern Ireland border. There is no chance of the EU abandoning its insistence that there should be a backstop - with no expiry date - of Northern Ireland, but not Great Britain, remaining in the Customs Union and the single market. That would involve the introduction of the commercial border in the Irish Sea that May says must never be drawn.
    4) All efforts therefore from the UK are aimed at putting in place other arrangements to make it impossible for that backstop to be introduced.
    5) Her ruse for doing this is the creation of another backstop that would involve the whole of the UK staying in something that looks like the customs union.
    6) But she feels cannot commit to keeping the UK in the customs union forever, because her Brexiter MPs wont let her. So it does not work as a backstop. And anyway the Article 50 rules say that the Withdrawal Agreement must not contain provisions for a permanent trading relationship between the whole of the UK and the EU. Which is a hideous Catch 22.
    7) There is a solution. She could ignore her Brexiter critics and announce the UK wanted written into the Political Declaration - as opposed to the Withdrawal Agreement - that we would be staying permanently in the customs union. This is one bit of specificity the rest of the EU would allow into the Political Declaration. And it could be nodded at in the Withdrawal Agreement.
    8) But if she announces we are staying in the Customs Union she would be crossing her reddest of red lines because she would have to abandon her ambition of negotiating free trade deals with non-EU countries. Liam Fox would be made redundant.
    9) She knows, because her Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins has told her, that her best chance - probably her only chance of securing a Brexit deal - is to sign up for the customs union.
    10) In its absence, no-deal Brexit is massively in play.
    11) But a customs-union Brexit deal would see her Brexiter MPs become incandescent with fury.
    12)Labour of course would be on the spot, since its one practical Brexit policy is to stay in the Customs Union.
    13) This therefore is Mays Robert Peel moment. She could agree a Customs Union Brexit and get it through Parliament with Labour support - while simultaneously cleaving her own party in two.
    14) It is a Customs Union Brexit, or leave the EU without a deal.
    15) Which will May choose? Ultimately this is her choice, and hers alone. It is her moment in history.
    drama much?
    the Peel allusion is good, i wonder would the brexiteer irregulars assassinate her?

  8. #622
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    that's a useful summary, thanks, cos I was totally lost and the newspapers are useless

  9. #623
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    Withdrawal text agreed. The next few days will define Britain's (and May's) future.

  10. #624

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    Droid's shit-stirring glee during our Brexit agony has been one of the few enjoyable things about it.

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  12. #625
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    Is it even possible for there to be a GE before xmas?

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  14. #627
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    It certainly is. Ive gone from glee to disgusted pity. Like seeing the old teacher who used to humiliate you at school stumbling down the street with a can of lager and shit dribbling down his stained trouser leg.

  15. #628
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    this was all a smokescreen politics for the capitalist class to continue its austerity. I said this in 2015-16.

    There will be no no deal. we are staying in the EU. both the middle class leftists and opportunist Class War muppets fell for this shit and diverted crucial organising energy. All who have won are the left wing jingoists (red brown more like!) and the fringe nutters on the tory party. Otherwise, it's business as usual as the country shifts ever more rightward.

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    I have such a crush on Katya Adler.

  17. #630
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    looking in from afar. admittedly with a scintilla of the understanding you all have, it looks as if Theresa May is basically being shit on. comes off as if a bunch of powerful men got the country into a supremely fucked up situation and then didn't want to take responsibility, so they got a woman in to try and clean up their mess and ultimately take the fall for the inevitable failure, allowing them to walk away and point the finger elsewhere (but not before openly laughing at her).

    surely this isn't the actual case, certainly may could have handled things differently. but that's the optics from outside, kind of make you feel sorry for her.

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