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Thread: UK EU Referendum Aftermath

  1. #676
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    Article 50 can be unilaterally revoked.

  2. #677
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    "As far as I have understood, there will be a Brexit in March 2019 in any event, right?"
    That's the line of the UK government. However the EU have now given a ruling that the UK could unilaterally decide not to leave. In other words they are allowing us a way out. As it seems to be clear that if we do go it's either May's Deal (shit) or No Deal (shitter) and the polls suggest that there is now a majority of the country against Brexit (though polls have been very wrong on this issue before) then a brave UK leader could do the right thing and prevent Brexit.
    In short, the answer to your question is "No".
    But sadly we lack the leadership to prevent it so probably there will be. A few days ago there seemed a slight hope that it could be prevented, rather than by a brave and clear-sighted leader, by a kind of joint inability to agree anything else. I was hoping for something like
    1. May's deal voted down (as it's not "hard" enough for the Brexiteers in parliament)
    2. Country left with No Deal or find another solution...
    3. ... EU will not renegotiate so the only possible other solution is No Brexit
    4. No Deal too "hard" from the non-Brexiteers in parliament to go through as it is
    5. To decide between No Deal and No Brexit we have another referendum
    6. No Brexit wins, loads of whiny racists cry and the pound rises against the euro making my life much easier (which is the main thing)

  3. #678
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    I am aware of the possibility of revoking, but that's the least plausible scenario.

  4. #679
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    Quote Originally Posted by firefinga View Post
    I am aware of the possibility of revoking, but that's the least plausible scenario.
    Is it though? Assuming that the EU won't negotiate again (which is a reasonable assumption as they have repeatedly insisted it is the case) there are three possibilities:

    1. May's deal
    2. No Deal Brexit
    3. Referendum

    The fact that May did not dare put her deal before parliament cos it was certain to be defeated, along with the fact that it cannot be changed, tells me it is pretty much dead. So really we are facing a straight choice between No Deal and a second referendum. I'm hopeful that enough MPs recognise that that would be suicide to make another referendum a real possibility, maybe that's wishful thinking but I think the analysis is sound.

  5. #680
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    I should say that the latest polls show a clear majority for cancelling Brexit so if there is a referendum....

  6. #681
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    I didn't want us to leave the EU when we voted 1st time, but if there's a 2nd referendum I would be unsure about voting remain again, would kinda hope it wasn't an option on there.

    I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.

    I'm not sure Remain would win anyway - if there's like 'no deal, deal, remain' on the ballot - would that split the first Remain vote between the left leaning people who now think we should go on with Brexit and hope labour can sort it out (me, and your Novara types) and the FBPE-type remainers, both left and right? would we then end up with no deal getting more votes?

  7. #682
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    I keep thinking about Hangover Square atm - everyone going about normal binge business with a large lingering threat of doom hanging out in the background

  8. #683
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    I didn't want us to leave the EU when we voted 1st time, but if there's a 2nd referendum I would be unsure about voting remain again, would kinda hope it wasn't an option on there, I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.
    I don't understand this position at all. Well, I get it when it's disingenuously held by Leavers but when people appear to seriously hold it I'm mystified. For me there are two major issues with the first referendum, firstly, Leave cheated, in more than one way. They systematically cheated, knew they cheated, and desperately tried to cover it up. It wasn't one rogue element or something, the whole campaign was dishonest and this is an established fact. For me that is a clear and compelling reason to disregard the first referendum. If the government came out and clearly pointed out the extent of proven cheating by the the Leave campaign then they could unilaterally withdraw Article 50.
    Secondly, Leave lied and mislead the public - both deliberately and, I assume, accidentally as well with their ill-informed optimism on the "easiest deal in history" etc now we know a lot more about what Leave will mean.
    So, since the previous (advisory) referendum we know that the winning side lied and cheated and the facts have changed. Two very strong reasons to ask the country again.

    I'm not sure Remain would win anyway - if there's like 'no deal, deal, remain' on the ballot - would that split the first Remain vote between the left leaning people who now think we should go on with Brexit and hope labour can sort it out (me, and your Novara types) and the FBPE-type remainers, both left and right? would we then end up with no deal getting more votes?
    I'm not sure Remain would win - but if Leave wins again so be it. Go with God. At least we know it's what people want. At the moment it appears the leaders of the country are dead set on pursuing an insane course which more than half the country oppose. That's fucking nuts! We basically have the situation where the government line is "We can't go against democracy by democratically asking people what they think" and it is as moronic as it sounds.

    And all these threats of civil disobedience and the like. We should treat these as both disgusting and laughable really.

  9. #684
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    Quote Originally Posted by glasshand View Post
    I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.
    Shit will be fucked up whatever happens, though. Better if it is fucked up in a country that is not in the throes of economic catastrophe. Once the message really gets through that the promises of Brexit really were all lies, and both prices and unemployment soar, a lot of people will be just as angry as if their initial vote gets overturned. It's a no-win situation.

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