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Thread: UK EU Referendum Aftermath

  1. #676
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    "As far as I have understood, there will be a Brexit in March 2019 in any event, right?"
    That's the line of the UK government. However the EU have now given a ruling that the UK could unilaterally decide not to leave. In other words they are allowing us a way out. As it seems to be clear that if we do go it's either May's Deal (shit) or No Deal (shitter) and the polls suggest that there is now a majority of the country against Brexit (though polls have been very wrong on this issue before) then a brave UK leader could do the right thing and prevent Brexit.
    In short, the answer to your question is "No".
    But sadly we lack the leadership to prevent it so probably there will be. A few days ago there seemed a slight hope that it could be prevented, rather than by a brave and clear-sighted leader, by a kind of joint inability to agree anything else. I was hoping for something like
    1. May's deal voted down (as it's not "hard" enough for the Brexiteers in parliament)
    2. Country left with No Deal or find another solution...
    3. ... EU will not renegotiate so the only possible other solution is No Brexit
    4. No Deal too "hard" from the non-Brexiteers in parliament to go through as it is
    5. To decide between No Deal and No Brexit we have another referendum
    6. No Brexit wins, loads of whiny racists cry and the pound rises against the euro making my life much easier (which is the main thing)

  2. #677
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    I am aware of the possibility of revoking, but that's the least plausible scenario.

  3. #678
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    Quote Originally Posted by firefinga View Post
    I am aware of the possibility of revoking, but that's the least plausible scenario.
    Is it though? Assuming that the EU won't negotiate again (which is a reasonable assumption as they have repeatedly insisted it is the case) there are three possibilities:

    1. May's deal
    2. No Deal Brexit
    3. Referendum

    The fact that May did not dare put her deal before parliament cos it was certain to be defeated, along with the fact that it cannot be changed, tells me it is pretty much dead. So really we are facing a straight choice between No Deal and a second referendum. I'm hopeful that enough MPs recognise that that would be suicide to make another referendum a real possibility, maybe that's wishful thinking but I think the analysis is sound.

  4. #679
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    I should say that the latest polls show a clear majority for cancelling Brexit so if there is a referendum....

  5. #680
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    I didn't want us to leave the EU when we voted 1st time, but if there's a 2nd referendum I would be unsure about voting remain again, would kinda hope it wasn't an option on there.

    I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.

    I'm not sure Remain would win anyway - if there's like 'no deal, deal, remain' on the ballot - would that split the first Remain vote between the left leaning people who now think we should go on with Brexit and hope labour can sort it out (me, and your Novara types) and the FBPE-type remainers, both left and right? would we then end up with no deal getting more votes?

  6. #681
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    I keep thinking about Hangover Square atm - everyone going about normal binge business with a large lingering threat of doom hanging out in the background

  7. #682
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    I didn't want us to leave the EU when we voted 1st time, but if there's a 2nd referendum I would be unsure about voting remain again, would kinda hope it wasn't an option on there, I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.
    I don't understand this position at all. Well, I get it when it's disingenuously held by Leavers but when people appear to seriously hold it I'm mystified. For me there are two major issues with the first referendum, firstly, Leave cheated, in more than one way. They systematically cheated, knew they cheated, and desperately tried to cover it up. It wasn't one rogue element or something, the whole campaign was dishonest and this is an established fact. For me that is a clear and compelling reason to disregard the first referendum. If the government came out and clearly pointed out the extent of proven cheating by the the Leave campaign then they could unilaterally withdraw Article 50.
    Secondly, Leave lied and mislead the public - both deliberately and, I assume, accidentally as well with their ill-informed optimism on the "easiest deal in history" etc now we know a lot more about what Leave will mean.
    So, since the previous (advisory) referendum we know that the winning side lied and cheated and the facts have changed. Two very strong reasons to ask the country again.

    I'm not sure Remain would win anyway - if there's like 'no deal, deal, remain' on the ballot - would that split the first Remain vote between the left leaning people who now think we should go on with Brexit and hope labour can sort it out (me, and your Novara types) and the FBPE-type remainers, both left and right? would we then end up with no deal getting more votes?
    I'm not sure Remain would win - but if Leave wins again so be it. Go with God. At least we know it's what people want. At the moment it appears the leaders of the country are dead set on pursuing an insane course which more than half the country oppose. That's fucking nuts! We basically have the situation where the government line is "We can't go against democracy by democratically asking people what they think" and it is as moronic as it sounds.

    And all these threats of civil disobedience and the like. We should treat these as both disgusting and laughable really.

  8. #683
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    Quote Originally Posted by glasshand View Post
    I think it really will fuck shit up in the country if the initial result just gets effectively overruled, and it seems a bit wrong despite all the false pretences some people might have been swayed by to start with.
    Shit will be fucked up whatever happens, though. Better if it is fucked up in a country that is not in the throes of economic catastrophe. Once the message really gets through that the promises of Brexit really were all lies, and both prices and unemployment soar, a lot of people will be just as angry as if their initial vote gets overturned. It's a no-win situation.

  9. #684
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    Yeah i'm surprised at yr lack of comprehension Rich, to the extent i almost had an "internet is wrong" moment yesterday, to compulsively set you straight. I hoped babboon would do the job

    It's a terrible idea

    Your characterisation of the Leave liars is so easily reversible and applied by the leavers to the Remoaners with their tales of Project Fear, and there are equally nebulous claims of data manipulation on both sides, which according to people who actually know about this stuff are overblown and impossible to substantiate or quantify - so its par for the course, rough and tumble of no holds barred so-called democracy.

    I said here ages ago that it will be No Deal, it's too easy for the trolls to sabotage anything positive. I find this highly disturbing, but these politicians are scum, so what should we expect.

    I'm finding remain position totally unsympathetic and naive, Team Remain are the only ones pushing for a 2nd vote, so it's partial, and would be moving the goalposts - I struggle to see how that could ever be acceptable, even as pseudodemocraxy. A crap idea on top of a crap idea in the first place but it's too late to fix the first one with a 2nd one, sorry.

    Remain have no compelling rep (Tony Robinson ffs), and seem not to have been able to change the record since before they lost the first vote, unfortunately.

  10. #685
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    Quote Originally Posted by sufi View Post
    Yeah i'm surprised at yr lack of comprehension Rich, to the extent i almost had an "internet is wrong" moment yesterday, to compulsively set you straight. I hoped babboon would do the job

    It's a terrible idea

    Your characterisation of the Leave liars is so easily reversible and applied by the leavers to the Remoaners with their tales of Project Fear, and there are equally nebulous claims of data manipulation on both sides, which according to people who actually know about this stuff are overblown and impossible to substantiate or quantify - so its par for the course, rough and tumble of no holds barred so-called democracy.

    I said here ages ago that it will be No Deal, it's too easy for the trolls to sabotage anything positive. I find this highly disturbing, but these politicians are scum, so what should we expect.

    I'm finding remain position totally unsympathetic and naive, Team Remain are the only ones pushing for a 2nd vote, so it's partial, and would be moving the goalposts - I struggle to see how that could ever be acceptable, even as pseudodemocraxy. A crap idea on top of a crap idea in the first place but it's too late to fix the first one with a 2nd one, sorry.

    Remain have no compelling rep (Tony Robinson ffs), and seem not to have been able to change the record since before they lost the first vote, unfortunately.
    I can't work out if that's sarcasm or you really think all that. Was gonna go through it bit by bit and refute it but I don't want to bother cos I'll look stupid if it's a joke. Which the more I look at it, the more convinced I become that it must be.
    Last edited by IdleRich; 19-12-2018 at 07:09 PM.

  11. #686
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    i'm not sure either , but if it's serious then i worried that we might have a heated political discussion about brexit on dissensus, yikes
    i just don't know what to think about the brexit, but it honestly surprises me that people are proposing a 2nd vote.

    i just don't feel qualified to have a strong opinion on such a complicated matter, myself, didnt vote, and tbh i think this should be a technocratic matter not a democratic one. It shouldn't be down to campaigning and opinion. It's ridiculous to refute my points or for us to "debate" it as neither of us know the details. Certainly for emotional and tribal reasons i'd vote for inclusivity and Remain,

    but it's strange how little empathy and understanding there is on the Remain side for the other PoV

  12. #687
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    I loved this letter in LRB https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n22/letters
    Myths of Englishness

    I found James Meek’s essay on Brexit and myths of Englishness very illuminating, but as ever I am struck by the lack of attention given to the subliminal effects of the two key words ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ on the minds of voters in the referendum (LRB, 11 October). In the absence of well-informed and reasoned debate many may well have been swayed, as Meek plausibly argues, by the power of suggestion. How significant then was it that the Old English word ‘leave’, with its positive connotations of permission, provision and respite, stood against the Old French ‘remain’, with its connotations of death, leftovers and failure? How might the vote have gone if the Old English ‘stay’ (vital support, self-control, stability, thoughtfulness) had been chosen for the campaign instead of ‘remain’? Who would not prefer to stay firm rather than remain obdurate? How many dogs ever won a pat on the head and a biscuit by complying with the command ‘Remain!’?

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  14. #688
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    There is evidence of clear criminality during the leave campaign, exhaustively documented in some cases, and data manipulation seems to have been almost exclusively in favour of leave.

    Project fear seems, if anything, to have underestimated the negatives of leaving, so in that sense it does not fall into the same category of many of the distortions pushed by the leave campaign.

    I have no skin in the game here and I cant speak to the wisdom of a 2nd referendum in terms of ultimate outcome, but it seems like a not unreasonable stance.

  15. #689
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    i just don't feel qualified to have a strong opinion on such a complicated matter, myself, didnt vote, and tbh i think this should be a technocratic matter not a democratic one. It shouldn't be down to campaigning and opinion. It's ridiculous to refute my points or for us to "debate" it as neither of us know the details. Certainly for emotional and tribal reasons i'd vote for inclusivity and Remain,
    We know some details. For example we know enough to be certain that the following false equivalence is simply, literally not true.

    Your characterisation of the Leave liars is so easily reversible and applied by the leavers to the Remoaners with their tales of Project Fear, and there are equally nebulous claims of data manipulation on both sides, which according to people who actually know about this stuff are overblown and impossible to substantiate or quantify - so its par for the course, rough and tumble of no holds barred so-called democracy.
    For example just cos the Leavers (eg Priti "Ugly" Patel") claim that the Remain side cheated (ie broke spending limits) as much as the Leavers doesn't make it true. It's been investigated pretty thoroughly and the only discrepancy of the Remain campaign (more fool them) was some late receipts. So-called Project Fear may turn out to be an exaggeration (or it may turn out not to be sadly) but a future prediction made in good faith is hardly comparable to the 350m, the Turkish stuff etc etc I refuse to believe that you really and honestly think is.
    Similarly there is no equivalence on this or about data manipulation - and to dismiss the Cambridge Analytics stuff as nebulous is also a gross distortion. Looks as though they are starting to take it seriously in the US right now with the Trump campaign. There is no equivalent accusation relating to Remain - again I'm surprised (to say the least) that you even say claim that.

    But more generally, why say we can't debate this? I've never seen anything here ruled ultra vires due to a lack of known facts - maybe we don't know every single thing but I think that we can safely say that as it's been the main issue reported on and written about in the British press for the last two years we know more about it than we have lots of other things that were never questioned in that way.

    As for this statement

    but it's strange how little empathy and understanding there is on the Remain side for the other PoV
    I agree... because frankly at this stage it's clear that it's pretty much an insane and moronic point of view. OK maybe if I were involved in a debate in a public sphere where I was trying to win over Leavers I would moderate my language and perhaps appeal more emotively - but on dissensus which has about six users who comment at a rate of one post every three days I'm happy to just lay out the situation as it is without worrying too much about the effect it may have on the Remainer cause. I mean, no-one is listening, surely I can say how I feel without pandering to the feelings of racist idiots.

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  17. #690
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    Quote Originally Posted by sufi View Post
    i'm not sure either , but if it's serious then i worried that we might have a heated political discussion about brexit on dissensus, yikes
    i just don't know what to think about the brexit, but it honestly surprises me that people are proposing a 2nd vote.

    i just don't feel qualified to have a strong opinion on such a complicated matter, myself, didnt vote, and tbh i think this should be a technocratic matter not a democratic one. It shouldn't be down to campaigning and opinion. It's ridiculous to refute my points or for us to "debate" it as neither of us know the details. Certainly for emotional and tribal reasons i'd vote for inclusivity and Remain,

    but it's strange how little empathy and understanding there is on the Remain side for the other PoV
    The whole terms of the original referendum were insane - that a 4% victory under dubious circumstances/duplicitous campaigning could lead to such a drastic change in national direction. I don't know the worldwide comparisons, but surely for something like this at least a 60-40 win should be required to institute such drastic change.

    I agree about this not being a democratic matter, necessarily, given its complexity. Representative democracy inherently contains the idea of entrusting technical decisions to experts, the problem being that the people elected are often idiots and as far from experts as could be imagined. The system is broken (if indeed it was ever fit for purpose), and Brexit may just be an absurdly cliff-edge symptom.

    And I think that is something with which many Remainers/Stayers would agree. The protection of minority groups within a country can never be entrusted to popular vote, and this sound principle has been transgressed here.

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