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Thread: UK EU Referendum Aftermath

  1. #826
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    Raab doing his best "I haven't read the book, but I can probably blag it" - https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/sta...92705921978375

  2. #827
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    Default Politics in the 2010s means the most idiotic possible outcome

    Therefore of course a no deal Brexit. Interestingly in a way, bc no deal brexit is the worst scenario for business.

  3. #828
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    Also: the Labour Shadow Cabinet want No Deal Brexit. If you do not get this now, I don’t know what to say.
    Yeah we know, that's precisely why we feel betrayed.

  4. #829
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    A well-intentioned but not very politically sophisticated mate of mine, who is also a card-carrying Corbyn cultist, posted this garbage on Facebook today:

    "The Brexit nightmare is entirely the Tories' fault. Don't blame Labour."

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...HJ1YYEVcbJIu90

    The sheer level of nah-nah-nah-I-can't-hear-you self-delusion going on with some Labour supporters is incredible. Ultimately yes, it's the Tories who have primarily caused this mess and deserve the lion's share of the blame, but to completely ignore Corbyn's lifelong Euroskepticism, the fact that he voted in favour of holding the referendum, whipped his party to vote to trigger Article 50 the second the result was announced, has put forward a Brexit 'deal' that by all accounts is just as unworkable as May's and has repeatedly and incorrectly stated that the UK can't unilaterally stop the exit process... I just can't understand how someone with half a brain can be aware of all that and conclude that Corbyn and his allies are totally blameless.
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  5. #830
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    If Ed Miliband's biggest mistake was failing to meaningfully argue against the false Tory narrative that the UK's national debt was a huge economic problem and that Labour's alleged over-generous public spending was the main cause of it, then Corbyn is guilty of colluding with the enemy in exactly the same way by simply echoing the Tories' lines about "legitimate concerns" over payments to the EU, sovereignty, immigration and so on, rather than pointing out that stagnating wages and growing inequality are the direct result of nearly a decade of Tory policy and have the next thing to damn all to do with the EU. (Never mind that EU regional subsidies are the only thing keeping some of the poorest parts of the country from total destitution.)

    In fact hasn't he come out with some flat-out lies about how the EU is supposedly hobbling British industry?
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  6. #831
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    So, is this the start? I really think that it's unforgivable we still have no actual idea what will happen. Just amazing that they took so many breaks and had so many pointless delays and irrelevant debates and nothing whatsoever has been sorted. The result being that more and more people are doing things (starting projects etc) which will last long enough to be in a different and undefined regulatory framework by the time they are finished.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...world-harbours

    “We are making good progress on securing deals and have signed agreements with Chile, the Faroe Islands, and Eastern and Southern African Economic Partnership Agreement states. We have mutual recognition agreements with Australia and New Zealand, and expect others to follow soon. We have also agreed the text of a trade agreement with Switzerland, which the government expects to sign shortly.”
    No disrespect to the Faroe Islands but I don't think that a deal with them is going to save our exports. And Switzerland may have a powerful economy but in the context of shipping I'm not sure a landlocked country would be top of my list either.

  7. #832
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdleRich View Post
    Just amazing that they took so many breaks and had so many pointless delays and irrelevant debates and nothing whatsoever has been sorted.
    Simultaneously amazing and completely predictable. There was simply no plan, except that Brexit had to happen. The arrogance and lack of duty of care has been epic.

  8. #833
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    To me the most unforgivable thing (since the referendum itself) was delaying the vote. What was the justification for that when the deadline was coming up so fast. Deliberately wasting time when we have none. Leaving people (and companies I guess) dangling in uncertainty... just disgusting.

  9. #834
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    Anyone else here ever look at Quora? I saw this answer to the question "Is brexit getting less and less likely to happen?"

    Less likely.

    I will step out a limb.

    The facts are:

    1. In it's current form the withdrawal agreement, while acceptable to rEU, is not acceptable to UK parliamentarians. Without a major amendment to the agreement, specifically the duration of the Irish Backstop, UK parliamentarians are unlikely to ratify the WA.

    2. While the UK continues to pursue "talks" with various EU officials, the message coming from the EU could not be clearer: that discussions are over and, for the UK as a prospective third country, "it's take it or leave it" time. The WA is no longer up for discussion; the UK has had its two years and that's all folks.

    3. Consequently, Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement will succeed only if either the EU or UK backs down on the Irish Backstop. Neither can back down.

    While the default position is "No Deal" (the UK need do nothing, just wait until March 30), with all that that entails, there are only two options for the UK:

    1. UK could seek an extension to the A50 process. However this requires unanimous approval by rEU - and comes with strict conditions. With only weeks to go it's hard to see why the EU would extend beyond the elections to the European Parliament, starting on the 23rd May. (Readers of the UK press are typically misled that extending beyond 29 March is somehow within the unilateral purview of the UK. It's not.)

    2. The UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit, right up to the closing stages. This means that the UK can make threats right up to the last kick, then back down. If the EU swerves, this will have dire implications for the Republic of Ireland and, ultimately, the integrity of the EU. If the UK swerves, it is back to where it was on the 22 June 2016, somewhat humbled and saddled with severe domestic political ramifications.

    So far, the EU hasn't blinked. It is unlikely that the EU will offer the kind of last minute concessions that would satisfy the UK, thus we have a fully fledged Chicken game. The game is complicated by the UK's ability to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally, but this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand UK can make any threat, however cheap, safe in the knowledge it can back down at the last minute. On the other hand the EU can regard all the UK's threats as cheap ones, for exactly the same reason. Thus the UK can make unlimited threats, but in the white noise of the Brexit Opera separating real threats from bluffs is impossible. This is compounded by the UK’s history of bluffs. Therefore all UK threats are likely to be treated as empty ones in the endgame. Rather like two cars heading for a collision, the EU has pulled off the steering wheel and started waving it in the air. Only its not two cars, it’s a tank against Mrs May’s old Mini Cooper.

    Mrs May isn't stupid. Neither are most Tory MPs. They understand the public mood can and does change. Mrs May knows that Brexit will be disowned if it turns out to be a Tory turd. As ageing Brexiteers die off, it will be very clear who will take the blame: the Tories - if they’re still around. The Mr Sensibles in the party know this [1], and so too does Mrs May.

    Like Chris Le Carlin, I have put a small bet that the UK rescinds A50 and unconditionally remains in the EU, as per the conditions placed upon this option. The alternative is short term catastrophic failure, risking long term decline and, ultimately, the defenestrations of those held responsible. Unfortunately for the Tories, Brexit is their baby.

    If this happens then Mrs May will fulfill her ultimate role: that of a human sacrifice, preventing the Conservative party from imploding. The damage to the UK so far is a secondary consideration: from the start Brexit was only ever about the Tories and their destructive obsession with Europe.

    The real danger for the EU now is not whether the UK leaves, but the appalling prospect of it remaining.

    Footnotes

    1. The Tories should heed Oliver Letwin. They won’t be forgiven a no-deal Brexit | Andrew Rawnsley
    Seems reasonable to me. Thoughts?
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