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Thread: UK EU Referendum Aftermath

  1. #826
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdleRich View Post
    Just amazing that they took so many breaks and had so many pointless delays and irrelevant debates and nothing whatsoever has been sorted.
    Simultaneously amazing and completely predictable. There was simply no plan, except that Brexit had to happen. The arrogance and lack of duty of care has been epic.

  2. #827
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    To me the most unforgivable thing (since the referendum itself) was delaying the vote. What was the justification for that when the deadline was coming up so fast. Deliberately wasting time when we have none. Leaving people (and companies I guess) dangling in uncertainty... just disgusting.

  3. #828
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    Anyone else here ever look at Quora? I saw this answer to the question "Is brexit getting less and less likely to happen?"

    Less likely.

    I will step out a limb.

    The facts are:

    1. In it's current form the withdrawal agreement, while acceptable to rEU, is not acceptable to UK parliamentarians. Without a major amendment to the agreement, specifically the duration of the Irish Backstop, UK parliamentarians are unlikely to ratify the WA.

    2. While the UK continues to pursue "talks" with various EU officials, the message coming from the EU could not be clearer: that discussions are over and, for the UK as a prospective third country, "it's take it or leave it" time. The WA is no longer up for discussion; the UK has had its two years and that's all folks.

    3. Consequently, Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement will succeed only if either the EU or UK backs down on the Irish Backstop. Neither can back down.

    While the default position is "No Deal" (the UK need do nothing, just wait until March 30), with all that that entails, there are only two options for the UK:

    1. UK could seek an extension to the A50 process. However this requires unanimous approval by rEU - and comes with strict conditions. With only weeks to go it's hard to see why the EU would extend beyond the elections to the European Parliament, starting on the 23rd May. (Readers of the UK press are typically misled that extending beyond 29 March is somehow within the unilateral purview of the UK. It's not.)

    2. The UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit, right up to the closing stages. This means that the UK can make threats right up to the last kick, then back down. If the EU swerves, this will have dire implications for the Republic of Ireland and, ultimately, the integrity of the EU. If the UK swerves, it is back to where it was on the 22 June 2016, somewhat humbled and saddled with severe domestic political ramifications.

    So far, the EU hasn't blinked. It is unlikely that the EU will offer the kind of last minute concessions that would satisfy the UK, thus we have a fully fledged Chicken game. The game is complicated by the UK's ability to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally, but this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand UK can make any threat, however cheap, safe in the knowledge it can back down at the last minute. On the other hand the EU can regard all the UK's threats as cheap ones, for exactly the same reason. Thus the UK can make unlimited threats, but in the white noise of the Brexit Opera separating real threats from bluffs is impossible. This is compounded by the UK’s history of bluffs. Therefore all UK threats are likely to be treated as empty ones in the endgame. Rather like two cars heading for a collision, the EU has pulled off the steering wheel and started waving it in the air. Only its not two cars, it’s a tank against Mrs May’s old Mini Cooper.

    Mrs May isn't stupid. Neither are most Tory MPs. They understand the public mood can and does change. Mrs May knows that Brexit will be disowned if it turns out to be a Tory turd. As ageing Brexiteers die off, it will be very clear who will take the blame: the Tories - if they’re still around. The Mr Sensibles in the party know this [1], and so too does Mrs May.

    Like Chris Le Carlin, I have put a small bet that the UK rescinds A50 and unconditionally remains in the EU, as per the conditions placed upon this option. The alternative is short term catastrophic failure, risking long term decline and, ultimately, the defenestrations of those held responsible. Unfortunately for the Tories, Brexit is their baby.

    If this happens then Mrs May will fulfill her ultimate role: that of a human sacrifice, preventing the Conservative party from imploding. The damage to the UK so far is a secondary consideration: from the start Brexit was only ever about the Tories and their destructive obsession with Europe.

    The real danger for the EU now is not whether the UK leaves, but the appalling prospect of it remaining.

    Footnotes

    1. The Tories should heed Oliver Letwin. They won’t be forgiven a no-deal Brexit | Andrew Rawnsley
    Seems reasonable to me. Thoughts?
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  4. #829
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    So Labour just announced they are moving for a second referendum... not sure if it will work but it's got to be good news. If only they'd done it earlier then maybe they wouldn't have lost those MPs. Maybe.

  5. #830
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    I think losing those MPs, and the threat of others going, was what forced their hand.

  6. #831
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    That's what everyone is saying. And if they did then three fucking cheers for the IG I say - however much of a bunch of expense fiddling opportunistic liars they might be.

  7. #832
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    Is there any reason to think a second referendum won't go the same way as the first one did while the cunts who lied their way to victory in 2016 aren't yet in jail where they belong?
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  8. #833
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    I dunno. The polls show a much greater lead for Remain than they did then, presumably more people understand more about how hard to enact Brexit will be than when they voted before. Also, we know that the 350m was a lie, the Turkish thing, what Boris and everyone else said about how we would definitely remain in the customs union was incorrect, what Fox said about rolling over all those trade deals wasn't true and so on and so forth . We're assuming Remain will be on the ballot obviously - to me that is implied by the word "Second" - if it was just between Mays Deal and No Deal then that wouldn't be the right descriptor. I would love a second referendum (with Remain on the ballot) for the following reasons:
    1. I would grab at any even slight chance at stopping Brexit like a drowning man for a rope or whatever the saying is. A second referendum surely offers a fifty percent chance of stopping it and compared to the alternative no percent chance... well I can't understand how anyone who dislikes Brexit would not see that as a good thing.
    2. If (say) No Deal wins then fair enough, that's what people want. At the moment it feels as though as well as being the worst possible option it's also unpopular, it really fucking boils my piss that we could conceivably be heading for it under those circumstances. I would actually accept it more happily if I truly believed it was what people wanted - admittedly while cursing my moronic country and being fucking glad I don't live in it any more.

  9. #834
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    will corbyn continue to be half-hearted on the matter or will he show some leadership? viewed from afar, he just appears so reluctant.

  10. #835
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    Quote Originally Posted by IdleRich View Post
    So Labour just announced they are moving for a second referendum... not sure if it will work but it's got to be good news. If only they'd done it earlier then maybe they wouldn't have lost those MPs. Maybe.
    Not to rain on anyone's parade, but is there still the necessary time left for such a second referendum? And if not, as I suspect, what then makes Labour think they will get a delay for organising a new referendum with very doubtful outcomes? It seems all quite too little and much too late.

  11. #836
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    Quote Originally Posted by m99188868 View Post
    Not to rain on anyone's parade, but is there still the necessary time left for such a second referendum? And if not, as I suspect, what then makes Labour think they will get a delay for organising a new referendum with very doubtful outcomes? It seems all quite too little and much too late.
    There's definitely not time without an extension so this presupposes an extension (and many other things too). The EU have said that they would allow an extension if there was some sort of definite aim - rather than just to waste more time - I can't imagine that they wouldn't allow time for a referendum if Remain was on the ballot because it represents a chance of them getting what they want.
    As for Corbyn showing leadership, who knows, the fact he seemingly had to be bounced into this decision doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

  12. #837
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    Quote Originally Posted by version View Post
    If it does, does Article 50 need to be retriggered? That would at least give us a bit more time to come up with something.
    something something trigger warning
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  13. #838
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    Yeah, that sounds about right. Where'd you get it?
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  14. #839
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    I think the idea of "the elite" is one of the most abused and potentially pernicious concepts in political discourse today - another being "the people" (or, even worse, "ordinary people"). The right-wing press in this country has succeeded in convincing millions of working-class people that someone like me, someone who's been to university and reads books for fun, is part of some liberal metropolitan elite, while apparently accepting that the likes of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg are in some way on their side and have their best interests at heart. You see the same thing in the USA, where Trump supporters also rail at 'coastal elites' while apparently kidding themselves that Trump started out doing a paper round and worked his way up to the top through hard work and ingenuity.

    (I suppose, in a sense, this is very slightly less ridiculous than the analogous situation in the UK, because if you were incredibly naive and gullible you might well buy Trump's self-mythologizing rhetoric about being an essentially self-made man - the cult of personal success through enterprise and meritocratic reward is America's unofficial religion, after all - but surely even the dimmest Sun reader is at least vaguely aware that Johnson and Rees-Mogg are hereditary aristocrats who became multi-millionaires the second they were born.)

    Another depressing aspect is how easily, for many on both the hard right and hard left, The Elite becomes The Jew.
    Last edited by Mr. Tea; 09-03-2019 at 09:32 PM.
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  16. #840
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    May's constant delays, obfuscation and refusal to answer questions except in the most vague and repetitive soundbites are making everything about Brexit worse. We are left with the impression that she is either lying about her plans or simply doesn't know what they are - in fact probably she doesn't know what she will do and she is lying about that. It's a fucking mess and all the time the uncertainty slowly kills us bit by bit.

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