UK EU Referendum Aftermath

Peter Walker
‏Verified account @peterwalker99

I just bumped into Dominic Cummings, who was clutching a glass of red wine and wandering along the parliamentary press corridor, lost and looking for a particular newspaper office. This is not a usual occurrence.

DannyL said:

What is incongruous though is for all his smarts, Cummings basically sounds appalling at dealing with people. Straight to shouty public school bully. Hardly Machiavellian.

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I really want to see that showdown with Milne now, after you posted that piece a few days ago.

drum roll...

Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.

Unlikely as it may seem, he is now seen as the lesser of two evils by analysts at Citibank and Deutsche Bank, respectively American and German titans of the financial system.

“Is Corbyn as bad as no-deal? Perhaps no longer,” said Christian Schulz at Citi.

That was just published in The Telegraph of all places.

Good line from Corbyn earlier:

"Boris Johnson's government has no mandate, no morals and, as of today, no majority."

Woah!

Even Nick Robinson seems to be praising him...

Nick Robinson
‏Verified account @bbcnickrobinson

Not long ago @jeremycorbyn faced a crisis trapped between Remainers & Leavers and was shunned by other opposition parties. Now he’s able to stand up for democracy, work with a cross-party alliance & appear statesmanlike. Is that what people mean by No 10’s new strategic genius?

So Boris Johnson lost his first vote as PM... has that ever happened before?

version said:

Good line from Corbyn earlier:

"Boris Johnson's government has no mandate, no morals and, as of today, no majority."

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Nish Kumar on Twitter earlier: "Well we all know what Boris Johnson thinks about minorities."

IdleRich said:

So Boris Johnson lost his first vote as PM... has that ever happened before?

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Not since Pitt the Younger, apparently!

Boris Johnson says he is tabling motion for general election because he will not accept Benn bill
Boris Johnson says he will refuse to go along with this bill.

He does not want an election.

But if MPs vote for this bill tomorrow, the public will have to choose who goes to Brussels on 17 October.

He says if Jeremy Corbyn goes, he will do what the EU wants.

If Johnson himself goes, he will get a deal, he says.

He says if MPs vote for a pointless delay to Brexit tomorrow, he will seek to hold an election. Tonight he is tabling a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

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What the fuck does that mean? He will not accept the bill? You've got to you prick.

craner said:

This is why I said earlier on that what we are about to experience is what it would be like if Vimothy was the most powerful person in the country.

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wait wtf is going on in this thread

version said:

Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.

Unlikely as it may seem, he is now seen as the lesser of two evils by analysts at Citibank and Deutsche Bank, respectively American and German titans of the financial system.

“Is Corbyn as bad as no-deal? Perhaps no longer,” said Christian Schulz at Citi.

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Full article.

Jeremy Corbyn, the scourge of bankers and avowed opponent of capitalism, is winning support from unexpected new quarters: two of the biggest global banks operating in the City of London are warming to the Labour leader.

Unlikely as it may seem, he is now seen as the lesser of two evils by analysts at Citibank and Deutsche Bank, respectively American and German titans of the financial system.

“Is Corbyn as bad as no-deal? Perhaps no longer,” said Christian Schulz at Citi.

It is not that the financiers favour the opposition leader’s plans for “higher taxes, tighter labour laws, spending increases and the nationalisation of network industries”, but that this may cause less harm than leaving the EU without a deal.

“A year ago, a Labour government would have been a big economic downside risk,” said Mr Schulz. “These risks to the longer-term outlook have not changed, but Labour has become more decisively pro-EU over the past 12 months.”

At the same time “a fiscally profligate no-deal Conservative government is no longer as enticing”.

Deutsche’s Oliver Harvey sees an early general election as “the least worst outcome” because a Labour-Lib Dem alliance could stop or soften Brexit, while a larger Conservative majority would stand a better chance of negotiating a deal than the current minority government.

Mr Harvey acknowledged that financiers were worried about Mr Corbyn, but said “these fears may be overstated”.

“First, any market-unfriendly policies instigated during a Labour government are temporary (until the government is voted out of office), and must be set against the permanent shock caused by a no deal Brexit,” he said.

“Second, we see the magnitude of economic damage caused by a no deal Brexit as much higher than policies proposed in the last Labour manifesto.”

On top of that, he hopes that a Labour Government would have to rely on the Liberal Democrats, who could potentially rein in Mr Corbyn’s strongest anti-business instincts.

“The scope for the Labour Party to enact market unfriendly policies is likely to be limited if the party is unable to secure an outright majority,” said Mr Harvey.

Mr Schulz at Citi is also pinning his hopes on this potential coalition: “Staying in the single market and the likely reliance on partners such as Liberal Democrats would limit Corbyn’s leeway for anti-business policies.”

Reliance on the Scottish National Party might raise the chance of another vote on Scottish independence, he added, even as remaining in the EU makes another poll on breaking away from the UK less likely.

Last week Mr Corbyn said he would do “everything I can to stop a no deal bankers’ Brexit”, but appears to have won the financiers over to his corner despite linking them with the event they fear most.

However, the Labour leader and his party have made concerted efforts to build bridges with the City of London, which may now be paying off.

Apparently Rory Stewart's just said that he won't stand at the next election and he's bowing out of politics.

This what he said at the GQ Awards apparently

Politics is at an all-time low at the moment all over the world and it is great you continue to take an interest in it. We have a lot of work to do to regain anybody’s trust.
But I want to finish by saying this is a pretty special evening in many ways because, when I voted against the government this evening, I heard that my whip has been removed.
It’s likely tomorrow that there’s going to be an election and I’m not going to be able to stand as the member of Parliament because Boris [Johnson] has decided he doesn’t want me in the party.
I am very proud to take the award as politician of the year on the evening which I cease to be a politician.

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That makes it seem a bit more up in the air.

Is there some kind of redemption or vindication of the UK parliamentary system in that, despite all the claims and dire predictions and so on, it has been able to assert itself against the executive?
I say that very tentatively in the recognition that it may be helplessly naive... but it has kinda asserted itself at least.

Perhaps, but can't Boris just ignore them like he threatened to?

1'm not sure he can really do that. If he did just defy parliament I think he risks a) whatever he does being seen as having no legitimacy and so being ignored by the EU or whoever and b) possible legal recourse, albeit a little way down the road.
I'm thinking that if parliament passed a law and he tried to thwart it he would risk legal sanction in the future - sanction to himself, his own skin, he won't take that risk. He'll happily gamble with other people's stuff but himself, I don't think so.