UK EU Referendum Aftermath

But what looks like a dreadful start for Johnson may not end that way. It could also lead to triumph. Here’s why: It seems inevitable now that a general election will happen this October or, at the very latest, November. If Brexit has not happened — and it’s pretty clear at this point that it will not have — then the election is effectively going to be a second referendum. This time, the choice will be starker than in 2016: a no-deal Brexit or staying in the E.U. And this week, by firing the dissenters, Johnson has succeeded in making the Tories the uncomplicated “Leave Now” party. By clearing up any confusion, Johnson will thereby stymie the threat to Tory seats by the Brexit Party, which stormed to victory in the recent European elections. He may even secure an election “nonaggression” pact with the Brexit party on a clearly “no deal” agenda. What Boris has effectively done is rerun the referendum as an election campaign.

His argument is a simple and powerful one: In the referendum, a majority voted to leave the E.U., and this decision should be honored or democracy itself is undermined. The E.U. will not let Britain eat its cake and have it too, and has insisted that the U.K. remain largely under E.U. rules even as it leaves the E.U., offering a compromise that was rejected by the U.K. Parliament decisively three times. So a “no deal” exit is the only realistic version of Brexit left. It’s the people’s will against the elites’. The idea that voters did not know what they were doing in 2016 is delusional. They were told endlessly that leaving would mean catastrophe in economic terms, and they still voted to leave. The real question is: Why have we not left on time? What’s left to argue about? Get on with it.
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Johnson has a clear case: that he stands for respecting a democratic vote to leave the E.U., that his opponents are elitists trying to defeat the will of the people in favor of a foreign entity, the E.U., and that Jeremy Corbyn cannot be allowed into Number 10. It’s right-wing populism headed by someone with charisma and a record of winning elections. Labour? Its strongest issues are domestic: better health care, tax increases on the rich, more affordable housing — and in an election dominated by Brexit, those issues will be less salient. Its position on Brexit, moreover, has been hopelessly confused, never quite achieving a clear pro-E.U. stance.

As for Corbyn, he is the Tories’ secret weapon. An unreconstructed Marxist and anti-Semite, his approval ratings are in the 20s — almost halved from 2017. A new snap poll this week revealed that only 18 percent of Brits think Corbyn would be the best prime minister compared with 40 percent for Johnson. In a new poll, 43 percent of Brits said the worst outcome of a general election would be Corbyn as prime minister, while only 35 percent cited a no-deal exit. Elections are a choice. If it’s Corbyn versus No Deal, No Deal could very well win.

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IdleRich said:

This is my problem.... how can an election be a straight referendum? How should someone vote who is a life-long Labour voter but also a Leaver?

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IdleRich said:

I've been seeing a lot of polls these last few days, they contradict and so on but overall I'm getting the impression that a Tory win isn't as certain as I thought. Is it just me or what?

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IdleRich said:

Bercow stepping down now.... oh dear

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Labour MP Chris Leslie tells Grieve that No.10 is currently briefing reporters that "under no circumstances will No10 staff comply with Grieve's demands regardless of any votes in parliament". Extraordinary.

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