Page 1 of 16 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 228

Thread: Nice and ongoing terror attacks in W Europe

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    8,050

    Default Nice and ongoing terror attacks in W Europe

    After the appalling tragedy yesterday, surely something different needs to happen if anyone is serious about preventing further such attacks and further such loss of civilian life. Not the same old stupid, belligerent responses. I thought this was pretty good in that direction:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...r-attack-truck

    In particular this:
    "A Nice truck driver does not remotely threaten the security of the French state, any more than such acts do the security of America or Britain. The identification of the nation state with random killings of innocent people has become a political aberration."

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    The Fear - Dublin
    Posts
    6,275

    Default

    Things have moved into an arguably more dangerous place now with San Bernardino, Orlando and now this. Its possible to defend against organised terror cells via intelligence & police work - difficult, but possible.

    Seemingly random attacks by individuals 'inspired' or in solidarity or justified by an ideology or group are far more difficult to detect, prevent or contain.

  3. #3

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by baboon2004 View Post
    "A Nice truck driver does not remotely threaten the security of the French state"
    They certainly threaten its legitimacy.

  4. #4

    Default

    As with the killing of 49 people in a nightclub in Florida last month, investigators will want to establish the degree to which Isis or any other group might have been involved as soon as possible. This is not a mere detail but crucial to understanding the continuing threat.

    There is a vast range of possibilities: from direct commission, organisation and execution through to the most tenuous connection via ideological inspiration over the internet. There are reports that the attacker in Nice was a 31-year-old French citizen of Tunisian origin who was known to police, but not to intelligence services.

    French authorities – like counterparts around the world – have learned that the most lethal attacks in their country have been perpetrated by individuals or networks with connections to outside organisations.

    Mohamed Merah, who killed seven in a shooting spree in 2012, was initially described as a lone wolf but found to be connected to a breakaway al-Qaida faction. Those who attacked Charlie Hebdo magazine last year had a tenuous link to al-Qaida in Yemen. The more recent strikes, including those in November last year and in Belgium in March, involved a well-established network linked to Isis.
    Jason Burke, "France attack: use of truck in Nice demonstrates evolving nature of threat": https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ture-of-threat

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    15,044

    Default

    Police and intelligence agencies must be thinking wistfully back to the days of 'proper' franchised jihadi cells, each reporting to a regional leader, in turn directed from Pakistan/Iran/Libya...
    Doin' the Lambeth Warp New: DISSENSUS - THE NOVEL - PM me your email address and I'll add you

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    15,044

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by vimothy View Post
    They certainly threaten its legitimacy.
    I think this is fair, in that one of the major purposes of the nation state is to safeguard its citizens, so if it can't do that then it's not much good, is it?
    Doin' the Lambeth Warp New: DISSENSUS - THE NOVEL - PM me your email address and I'll add you

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    The Fear - Dublin
    Posts
    6,275

    Default

    Its particularly sad seeing as France opposed Iraq and they are now dealing with some of the consequences of that awful decision.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    15,044

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by droid View Post
    Its particularly sad seeing as France opposed Iraq and they are now dealing with some of the consequences of that awful decision.
    I tried - with no great success, if hardly need be said - to use this argument with zhao on Facebook when he invariably said "But Iraq!" in response to any argument about the causes of Islamist terror attacks on any Westerners.
    Doin' the Lambeth Warp New: DISSENSUS - THE NOVEL - PM me your email address and I'll add you

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    The Fear - Dublin
    Posts
    6,275

    Default

    Obv you have to consider that possibility of further attacks post 911 regardless, but Iraq (other than providing a crucible for ISIS) has taken us from (primarily) one relatively localised organisation to hundreds of distributed organisations with (probably) many thousands more individuals willing and seemingly able to act with little or no contact with traditional terror structures.

    Like kicking an unwanted mushroom and spreading the spores all over your garden. A complete fucking disaster.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    8,050

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by vimothy View Post
    They certainly threaten its legitimacy.
    It definitely threatens the legitimacy of the current government.

    The government that is talking about these attacks as though they're an existential threat to France. “We will continue striking those who attack us on our own soil", as though this is WWII or something and French territorial integrity is at stake. That kind of policy probably won't affect Hollande's personal security, and it certainly won't affect the security of the French state as an entity, but it practically ensures that more French civilians will be killed.
    Last edited by baboon2004; 15-07-2016 at 01:53 PM.

  11. #11

    Default

    This paper provides the first systematic analysis of the link between economic, political, and social conditions and the global phenomenon of ISIS foreign fighters. We find that poor economic conditions do not drive participation in ISIS. In contrast, the number of ISIS foreign fighters is positively correlated with a country's GDP per capita and Human Development Index (HDI). In fact, many foreign fighters originate from countries with high levels of economic development, low income inequality, and highly developed political institutions. Other factors that explain the number of ISIS foreign fighters are the size of a country's Muslim population and its ethnic homogeneity. Although we cannot directly determine why people join ISIS, our results suggest that the flow of foreign fighters to ISIS is driven not by economic or political conditions but rather by ideology and the difficulty of assimilation into homogeneous Western countries.
    Efraim Benmelech & Esteban F. Klor, "What Explains the Flow of Foreign Fighters to ISIS?": http://www.nber.org/papers/w22190

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    4,949

    Default

    Why have multiple attacks succeeded in France and yet in England we've managed to escape a major attack since 7/7? Better intelligence, or more of an issue of border security?

    Also, are attacks like this motivated specifically by e.g. bombing in Syria, or do ISIS have a broader goal of turning the West against Islam and inciting a sort of religious war?

    The push to the right will continue apace with attacks like these. Pretty miserable time to be alive, eh?

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Posts
    8,050

    Default

    @ Vimothy

    I obviously haven't read the whole paper, but I don't understand those conclusions really.

    Even in countries with (relatively) low income inequality overall, areas of extreme poverty and extreme relative poverty exist. No generalised analysis on a country basis, be it GDP or HDI or FXP, can tell you very much. If you feel excluded from 'mainstream' society, you feel excluded. "But surely you can't feel excluded. Look at these GDP figures!" makes its own cartoon.

    Also, difficulty of assimilation into Western countries is directly related to 'political conditions', however you take that phrase. France's long-term attitude towards its Muslim citizens is an obvious example.

    And what does 'ideology' actually mean in this context, if it can be divorced from economic and political considerations?

  14. #14

    Default

    They're just looking for trends. One thing that you might expect is that countries with relatively more income inequality have relatively more alienated Muslims who go off to join ISIS, but that doesn't seem to be the case (at least according to this study).

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    The Fear - Dublin
    Posts
    6,275

    Default

    There's a study from about a decade ago wrt terror in the middle east which found a large cohort of well educated upper/middle class participants... motivated primarily by ideology and political grievances.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •