DOOM, or The Official 2016 US Election Thread

droid

Well-known member
Yeah, the college is antiquated and deeply flawed. Any system which allows the person with the most votes to lose should go in the bin.
 

droid

Well-known member
Hardline clerics in Iran rubbing their hands at the thoughts of a nuclear arsenal to call their own.
 

Leo

Well-known member
Can we trust polling at all anymore? Or, as mentioned, perhaps it was the fluke case of most battleground states being within the margin of error and ALL of the error went in Trump's direction.

Our best hope is that Trump's not really into doing the hard work of being president and doesn't run for reelection, so it'll be "only" four years. Of course, that also means super conservative Mike Pence will actually BE president for the next four years and would run in 2020. Maybe if Trump upsets enough people in the next few years, Democrats can win back congressional seats in 2018.

Either way, we're screwed on the Supreme Court and healthcare at the very least. Sad!
 

droid

Well-known member
Can we trust polling at all anymore? Or, as mentioned, perhaps it was the fluke case of most battleground states being within the margin of error and ALL of the error went in Trump's direction.

Swing states were all in the margin of error, but Michigan? Pennsylvania? Wisconsin? Way out by 30 or more points.
 

vimothy

yurp
Amusing that when members of the political class poll the public to see how they think, they consistently get back numbers that reflect only their own prejudices.
 

droid

Well-known member
Generally speaking, that simply isnt true.

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sadmanbarty

Well-known member
Vim's confirmation bias makes him see confirmation bias even when there's no evidence of confirmation bias to confirm his bias.
 

vimothy

yurp
I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying the polls were not a great success in this election cycle.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/ not a Michael Moore fan, but he correctly pinned the key to Trump's win on the rust belt.

Hasn't been as much talk as there might be in the media about the impact of basic misogyny upon the result (again Moore calls it). I agree that Sanders would probably have stood a better chance of winning for many reasons, but a vital one would have simply been his gender. (Another sign the media seemed to miss was that - I think - Bernie did very well in the rust belt states in the primaries, aside from Pennsylvania)
 
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droid

Well-known member
I don't think I'm going out on a limb by saying the polls were not a great success in this election cycle.

Sure, but thats a contradiction of your previous statement.

Polling, in general, is reasonably accurate. The problem is not self serving establishment bias, but seems to be that the old models/systems arent standing up to new paradigms.

For example, apparently few pollsters in the US call mobile numbers, they still rely mainly on landlines.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
As a sideshow to the main horror, it's interesting to see which politicians worldwide are willing to call Trump out on his racism and misogyny, and which are simply offering bland congratulations. German politicians seem most forthright in showing their contempt right now (well outside Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, presumably)
 

droid

Well-known member
Polls are not based on tiny samples. But they were all wrong.

And once again, no, they weren't all wrong. They were wrong in 3 states. It was a massive error in those states, but it also means they got it right within the margin of error for the other 47, and also, it seems within 2 points of the popular vote.
 
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