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Thread: Iran again

  1. #1
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    Default Iran again

    There have been many false alarms, and Ive criticised some on this very forum, but I cant think of a time in recent history when a direct conflict with Iran was more likely.

    Its long been a strategic aim of Israel to denude Iran's capabilities. Netanyahu's increasingly deranged presentations are evidence of that, and it seems they may have found their moment. They've never had a better climate in Washington with Bolton and Trump, support from the Saudis and gulf states... Sniping journalists, torturing children and executing wounded teenagers gets boring after a while... so why not launch an insanely reckless attack on a Russian ally in the centre of a volatile region already torn by conflict?

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    Well Israel is saying Iran shot first: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...heights-israel

    At any rates, some missiles from Syria hit Israeli positions in the Golan Heights and Israel thinks they came from Iranian units.
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    No, Israel doesn't think they came from Iranian units. Israel knows full well it was the SDF firing on the Golan, which they have done repeatedly through the conflict.

    Also, there was the Israeli strike on iranian forces just a few weeks back, the first such attack and a clear escalation.

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    Of what possible benefit is it to the SDF to antagonise Israel?
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    There's been ongoing conflict between Israel and Syrian forces since the beginning of the war due to Israel's regular incursions and attacks.

    There's also the small matter of the Golan heights, a source of strife for decades.

    The drumbeat of war – almost exclusively from one side – has been insistent, setting the stage for this week’s escalation.

    The reality of this softening up of public opinion with the coincidence of Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions – moves coordinated with Israel – means that analysis of who is to blame for this outbreak of hostilities demands even more than usual scepticism and careful unpackaging.

    In terms of who has been responsible for both violence and the escalating sense of crisis, it is important to note that it is Israel for several years that has been conducting air and missile strikes with impunity against targets in Syria, perhaps several hundred in total until an Iranian drone penetrated Israeli airspace earlier this year.

    Those attacks, which at first often struck what were described as weapons storage facilities and missiles transfers to Hezbollah, have recently become more pointed and dangerous.

    In recent weeks Israel appears to have stepped up a notch in pursuing a deliberate policy of provoking Iran, including by targeting Iranian advisers in Syria leading to reported Iranian fatalities in strikes.

    If the context of Israeli military action is not hard to fathom, then neither is the strong sense that its recent actions, informed by that background, have been deliberate.

    Israel’s strategy of deterrence on its northern border – including preemption – is based on a policy of preventing a significant threat developing that would allow its enemies to hit Israeli population centres. But equally important is any development that is seen as potentially limiting the Israeli military’s freedom of action.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ns-are-unclear

    Given the context & recent events it would take an exceptional level of credulity to ascribe any truth to Israeli claims.
    Last edited by droid; 10-05-2018 at 03:43 PM.

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    So, uh, this happened:

    iran.jpg
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    The saudis seem to be going to great lengths to provide Bolton with a pretext. These fuckers are just about stupid and evil enough to do it as well.


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    I can't really imagine how any country would back US in an escapade like that after Iraq, but sadly UK will be at the front of the queue no doubt

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    Quote Originally Posted by sufi View Post
    I can't really imagine how any country would back US in an escapade like that after Iraq, but sadly UK will be at the front of the queue no doubt
    https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/op...103122141.html with or without uk presumably

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    Millions could die, but on the plus side it would be the last nail in the coffin for the US.

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    The US won't win this war but at the same time it seems the most necessary time to resurrect proletarian internationalism. sadly the left will back a clinton analogue like they did in 2016 even though if it was up to grandma death the US would have long sinced barged into syria rather than outsourcing its destabilisation work to conservative jihadist nutters who in turn work to prop up Assad...
    Quote Originally Posted by vimothy View Post
    I respect islamists

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    or it could be just another trump bluff. the nytimes has a story today about how most world leaders and many US officials are highly skeptical of the administration's depiction of the Iranian threat escalation, plus one of trumps main campaign platforms was pulling out of "stupid wars" and bringing troops home. he thinks this is how you negotiate. if poll numbers come back saying voters are against confrontation with Iran (and North Korean, and Venezuela), trump will cut off John bolton's balls in a heartbeat.

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    well there is an economic war. I agree that this all depends what rouhani does next.
    Quote Originally Posted by vimothy View Post
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    what the fuck is wrong with this bolton guy anyway?

  16. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by yyaldrin View Post
    what the fuck is wrong with this bolton guy anyway?
    He's a fan of the MEK.

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