droid

Well-known member
His base has softened. At best he can count on 35% of voters. The problems are gerrymandering, electoral interference, propaganda, dark money, and of course, the democrats.
 

Leo

Well-known member
I hope you're right but I sometimes feel that those people are too locked into the Fox News mindset and what with social media working as it is there are millions of people being repeatedly prodded and manipulated and goaded. Perhaps they'll start to soften due to exhaustion. I don't think anyone can or really wants to sustain perpetual outrage.

but "those people who are too locked into Fox News" are his base, who will vote for him. but they aren't what will put him over the top, since they represent only 35-40%. the average person in Wisconsin who was disgusted at both and stayed home isn't part of that group. and frankly, if they are influenced by news, then they've had 2+ years of whackadoodle crazy bad news, so they would tend to turn them off from trump.

trust me, I'm not saying the dems will certainly win -- as droid said, they can be their own worst enemies sometimes, nominating a bad candidate will kill them regardless of how bad trump has been. just saying that there was a perfect storm for trump in 2016 that might be difficult to replicate.
 
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Leo

Well-known member
hopefully there is a peaceful and orderly transition of power. that's happened every other time.

but this is no ordinary president. plus, the democrats have vowed to prosecute him once he leaves office (can't indict a sitting president), so maybe he'll try to not leave. call some sort of national security emergency, declare martial law. then it will be his supporters versus the deep state.

this should move to the conspiracy theory thread...
 

version

Well-known member
The thing is that whatever happens he's never going to shut up. He's going to be on Twitter and Fox stirring the pot as much as possible, throwing out conspiracy theories and all the rest of it. I also wouldn't put it past him to use any sensitive information he was privy to and can remember for personal gain.
 

droid

Well-known member
I know there's all kinds of controversy over ideas around 2016, but there was a thread on twitter there recently where someone was running the numbers on the possible influence targeted ads might have had on the election, and it was shocking how thin the margins were. Like, 10 votes switched in individual districts in somewhere like wisconsin (where he won by about 20,000) were enough to give Trump his victory.

That would have to be repeated to a much larger degree next time round.
 

version

Well-known member
Sun boycott reduced Euroscepticism on Merseyside, study shows - https://amp.ft.com/content/ffdb6e8c-c5c8-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9?__twitter_impression=true

Researchers find positive influence on Remain vote in Brexit referendum

A long-running boycott of The Sun newspaper on Merseyside reduced Euroscepticism in the area and had a positive influence on its Remain vote in the Brexit referendum, university researchers have concluded.

Florian Foos of the London School of Economics and Daniel Bischof of Zurich university said their research showed that the mass media could influence public opinion, but that the effect takes place over years rather than a single political campaign.

Pro-EU politicians and campaigners have long claimed that newspapers such as the Eurosceptic Sun, owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Group, have shaped the public’s view of the bloc.

Mr Foos and Mr Bischof tracked Merseyside’s view of the EU before and after the 1989 Hillsborough disaster, in which 96 Liverpool fans died during a game between the club and Nottingham Forest at Sheffield Wednesday’s stadium.

The Sun caused outrage on Merseyside by running a front-page story shortly after that wrongly blamed the tragedy on unruly behaviour by Liverpool fans, and this prompted many people in the area to stop buying the best-selling tabloid. Estimated daily sales fell from 55,000 to 12,000, although The Sun has never confirmed the figures.

Kelvin MacKenzie, editor of The Sun in 1989, apologised in 2012 to the people of Liverpool after an independent inquiry found that the Hillsborough tragedy was not caused by fans at the game but rather failures by the authorities.

Mr Foos said that many of The Sun’s working-class readers on Merseyside switched to the Daily Mirror, which was positive about the EU. “We show that attitudes towards the EU got significantly more positive in Merseyside during the boycott [of The Sun],” said the report by Mr Foos and Mr Bischof. “Merseyside is about 10 percentage points less Eurosceptic in the 2016 EU referendum than the remaining UK compared to the 1975 [EU membership] referendum.”

The academics drew on data from the British Social Attitudes survey — an annual review of Britons’ attitudes to multiple topics including the EU — spanning the years from 1985 to 2004, after which it stopped recording where people lived. The survey showed that the entire UK became more Europhile in the 1990s but that Merseyside did to a greater extent, and the academics compared the area with 21 other English counties with similar demographics.

“People in Merseyside were more Eurosceptic before Hillsborough than others in the north [of England] and that trend has been interrupted by the boycott [of the Sun],” said Mr Foos.

In 1989, 34 per cent of people in Merseyside wanted to leave the EU, against 25 per cent in comparable English counties. In 2004, the figures were 14 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, Merseyside voted 51 to 49 per cent to Remain, with 58 per cent of people in Liverpool backing staying in the EU.

Mr Foos said the vote on Merseyside would have been about 60 to 40 per cent in favour of Leave without the boycott of The Sun. Mr Foos said he could not extrapolate the report’s findings about Merseyside across the country. Had there been a boycott of The Sun in a southern English county, readers might have switched to the Eurosceptic Daily Mail rather than the Mirror, he added.

The academics adjusted their findings for factors such as party political support and demographic change, as well as the fact that Merseyside has received hundreds of millions of pounds of EU development funding.

Their report is being published at the American Political Science Association’s annual meeting in Washington on August 30. It has yet to be peer reviewed or published in a journal but is available on the internet.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I agree that if/when Trump loses (or even at the end of the second term if he wins one) I find it very hard to imagine him going quietly, I'm pretty sure that he will use every device and (un)constitutional trick to hold on to power for as long as possible.
 

luka

Well-known member
Needless to say I'm appalled though not surprised by the collective desire to reduce Ballards novels to the personal circumstances and foibles (both real and projected) of their author. Not, in my opinion, a useful way to read.
 

droid

Well-known member
When a man writes the same books, returns to the same themes in an almost identical manner, over and over and over again - it's warranted.
 

droid

Well-known member
Echoes from a professional.

FT: We know that Ballard read Freud’s Civilization and its Discontents when he was a teenager. It must have made a big impression on him, because in many ways, most of Ballard’s books are an exploration – in one way or another – of its implications. Freud’s thesis was that we are constantly repressing the primal and the primitive so that we can benefit from social organisation and culture. However, the primitive is constantly seeking release and expression. Ballard frequently returns to this idea. He is fascinated by the ramifications of societal breakdown and the Id – the Freudian unconscious – expressing itself through sex and violence and chaos. Ballard’s writing is holographic, insofar as these polar tensions are preserved in the tiniest fragments of text. In The Unlimited Dream Company, for example, the aviator, Blake, describes the following: ‘My semen splashed the windows of the supermarket, streamed across the sales slogans and the price reductions.’

FT: Freud made much of the need to ‘work through’ psychological traumas and the compulsion to repeat. If one were to put JG Ballard on the couch, one would have to probe the issue of repetition in his work. Time and time again, cracks appear in the veneer of bourgeois respectability as a prelude to social breakdown. An obvious connection can be made between Ballard’s childhood experiences of war and living in an internment camp which he dramatised in Empire of the Sun. Ballard underplayed the traumatic consequences of these experiences, but it has to be said, he underplayed a lot of things. I find it difficult to believe that a child wouldn’t have found such experiences traumatic. I wonder whether Ballard’s repetition compulsion was therapeutic, a perpetual catharsis that maintained his mental equilibrium; if so – talking selfishly – I’m glad he never achieved closure, otherwise he might not have produced so many extraordinary books.

http://www.ballardian.com/ballard-on-the-couch-an-interview-with-dr-frank-tallis
 

luka

Well-known member
Yes but you go way beyond what is 'obvious' into a severely flattening and unimaginative total identification of protagonist and author which leaves no space for nuance, irony, humour ambiguity, play.
 

luka

Well-known member
It's the symptom of a literalism that has always been endemic to this forum and which is always driving me to despair.
 

droid

Well-known member
No it doesn't. This aspect is being explored precisely because of your titanic leap that Ballard's diagnosis is somehow universal, and not, as is argued here a symptom of an authorial obsession wrought by significant childhood trauma.

But that's an interesting angle you're taking now. We've gone from Ballard having a definitive and very serious insight into the secret urges and group consciousness of humanity, to him exploring ideas with "nuance, irony, humour ambiguity, play."

You cant have it both ways.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
Actually, Droid did mention upthread the short stories which are where I'd look for an expansion of themes. A lot of the novels are a bit same-y.
 
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