Future War

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Oh, and Idle Rich would have liked to have said this but his browser's crashed, so he sent it to me:

Right, of course, I can see why rich scions of the Saudi elite (like
bin Laden) would be annoyed at Western "intervention" (such as it has been)
and the movement of Western cash into the Middle East.
Well - ignoring the irony - it's simply not just the rich who are annoyed is
it?

"I believe those planes came out of a swamp of our own
making"
I'm not saying that, in fact I think that that is just (well almost) as
disingenuous as to say what you said - that the planes appeared out of thin
air. The truth is somewhere in between as always, that's why I said that
you need to at least justify your claim.

"What about disagreeeing with my original post?"
Coming up.
 

vimothy

yurp
Bin Laden is a religious nutter with a Muad'dib-sized messiah complex. The fact he (or his family) made his fortune trading oil with America does not endear it to him in the least - as far as he's concerned, they're just infidels, and if they've helped him make the money he uses to fund his global jihad, they're stupid infidels. But of course, he knew that already.

Exactly - bin Laden wants to be the khilafa, the head of an Islamic empire, in the model of (lets face it) the great majority of Muslim history.

What bin Laden taps into in the minds of the Muslim-in-the-street - in both the Arab middle east and the wider world, including Britain - is a hatred of "the West" (which is, of course, no more a single entity than "the East") which has some causal basis in American foreign policy. Of course, it's (as always) much more complicated than that: taking into account the Soviet invasion of Aghanistan and the supression of the Chechen independence struggle, anti-Muslim prejudice in India, Britain's involvement in the histories of both Iran and Iraq, the Israel/Palestine situation and the perceived 'enforced secularisation' of Muslims in France and I wouldn't be surprised if some Muslims may be feeling like the whole world's against them. To balance that you have to take into account that the vast majority of violence committed against Muslims is perpetrated by other Muslims.

Yeah, and what I'm saying is, is this hatred justified? I know to most liberal westerners, it seems very straight-forward. We carved the Middle East up, we supported some regimes (whose citizens consquently resent our involvement), and alienated others (whose citizens look favourably upon us): it's very transparent and self-serving.

But, this is problematic for a number of reasons.
1. That's the liberal reading. What annoys western liberals and what annoys Islamic fundamentalists are not the same (in fact liberalism is exactly what many fundamentalist scholars object to - Qutb for e.g.). It's not imperialism that they object to, but our imperialism as opposed to their own.
2. The arab street has never had self-determination. It has always been exploited, and it has always been exploiting. The whole history of the region has been one of constant conquest and imperialist expansion, beginning in the early days of Islamic history with the famous victory at Yarmuk.
3. The defeat at the gates of Vienna (on Sept 11th!) in the 15th century marked the beginnig of the end of the expansion of the Islamic Empire because the Muslim world was overtaken by the West in terms of technological and political development. They never recovered. That's just what happened. For the Muslim world to achieve "parity" with the West, it will have to develop and master western institutions and techologies, or defeat the West in battle. It's pretty clear what option the fundamentalists choose, calling on historical and religious precident (jihad and the doctrine of fatah), but these are unfortunately non-starters and will ultimately only set back the Middle East further. Who will be blamed for that? The Middle East wants its time in the sun (again), and who can blame it, but also, who can achieve it but them?
4. Scapegoats. The Jews! The West! The Masons! How common are these themes? I find them hilarious, really. But simmering ressentiment, reactionary historicism (all salafism is, basically) and inability to produce self-criticism lead one way: further down the spiral. What about the thirteen Jews hung in Baghdad town square after the revolution in the '50s, Iraqis dancing in the streets? Where does that impulse come from? Also from tthe experience of Western imperialism?
5. Muslim agency. Is the West to blame for all the problems in the Middle East? Arabs experience the total mismanagement of their nations by their own governments (who often came to power through grass routes revoltions), yet their own governments are not without influence and certainly stand to benefit deflecting criticism onto the West. Likewise Israel is a useful safety valve.
 

vimothy

yurp
Well - ignoring the irony - it's simply not just the rich who are annoyed is
it?

No - but who flew the planes? Who developed the networks? Who financed the terrorists? It wasn't poor arab farmers, that's for damn sure.

I'm not saying that, in fact I think that that is just (well almost) as
disingenuous as to say what you said - that the planes appeared out of thin
air. The truth is somewhere in between as always, that's why I said that
you need to at least justify your claim.

See my response to Mr Tea. Also you might like to check out this essay by the renowned Middle Eastern scholar, Bernard Lewis: "The Roots of Muslim Rage":
http://www.cis.org.au/Policy/summer01-02/polsumm01-3.pdf

Coming up.

Cool.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
OK, so while I think that the case for "justified anger by Muslims at Western powers (without criticism of Muslim leaders/governments)" is, on the whole, massively overstated by Galloway and his ilk, I do think America (and other countries) have some measure of responsibility here. I certainly don't think (America-backed-as-if-I-have-to-spell-it-out) Israel is responsible for all the Middle East's problems by a long shot but it has treated, and continues to treat, the Palestinians appallingly - the US and UK have both meddled with Iran a great deal (not that I'm saying it'd be a perfectly functional democracy otherwise) - and trade sanctions against Iraq squeezed its people for many years without in the least bit weakening Saddam, who could have been removed in '91 if America had supported the (brutally punished) popular uprising against him.

Without in any way exonerating the many unpleasant regimes, despots, warlords and factions that blight this part of the world, I think it's pretty naive to hold some mainly-non-Muslim* countries, in particular America, wholly blameless.

*not 'Western', as the USSR/Russia has its fair share of blame, too
 

vimothy

yurp
It's not a question of what America is to blame for because it's nothing that America has done or not done that causes anti-Americanism. For e.g. - sanctions against Iraq, so it's the US' fault that Iraqis died without ever toppling Saddam (as if it was the US' responsibilty to feed and support other countries and not they themselves), yet it's also the US' fault that they didn't act to topple Saddam (as if regime change on behalf of another country was the responsibilty of the US) and also their fault that they gave (indirectly and ocassionally directly) support to Saddam for so long (like buying his oil, keeping the regime in money and power), and also their fault that they took on board these criticism and tried to create a moral foreign policy (the Bush Doctrine, now in tatters) and do something about it. It's quite clear that America can do no right, but it's also quite clear that the pan-arabist fascist impulse which took the baathi to power was the cause of Iraq's woes, and was an Iraqi, arab impulse, just like the terrible and stoopid governments which dominate the Middle East are the fault of the counties which spawned them, just like the current theo-fascist impulses wrecking the Mid East (Iraq!) are the responsibility of those who cary the banner, not USA. These problems are internal to Middle Eastern society.

A good example: How do you account for the rise of anti-semiticism in the Middle East in the 20th C (prior to the founding of the state of Israel)?

Another: Would you say that the Nazis (sorry!!) had some fair points to make and that it's understandable that they might have been pissed off following the WWI settlement, and that you can see why they might want to invade Poland?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Thanks Ollie.

Anyway, Vimothy, you are being somewhat dishonest in saying that every time I criticise your opinion that I must take the direct opposite position myself.
I don't say that the Twin Towers was entirely the fault of the US - I simply say that they did stoke the fires to some extent and that it wasn't totally out of the blue.
I don't say that only poor people hate the "West" I'm merely pointing out that you are wrong when you say only the scions of rich families hate it.

Back to your very first post.
I think you are making a gross misrepesentation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, particularly when you say

"They skilfully pounced on any civilian casualties of Israel’s response, and used the furore to erode public support for Israel and to generate an international movement to halt the Israeli offensive."
It's nothing to do with "skillfully pouncing" it's a simple fact that most people don't like to see huge civilian casualties being caused by a vastly superior military force that is reckless as to whether innocent people live or die. If you see that as a piece of propaganda by an evil terrorist force then I think that you are seeing only what you want to see.
More generally, I just don't see the situation as this clash of civilisations that you describe. My take is that this viewpoint is just going to cause needless antagonism.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
OK, since the focus here seems to be Iraq, I think the US could have done right by some or all of the following actions:

1) not supported Saddam in his war against Iran, which obviously stoked existing anti-American sentiment in that country;
2) helped the Iraqi people overthrow Saddam after the first Gulf War;
3) if not 2), then at least not imposed sanctions that effectively punished the public without harming Saddam, his cronies and his army.

I'm not one of those for whom America can do no right: I just think that, in this situation, it happens to have done a lot of wrong.
 

vimothy

yurp
Anyway, Vimothy, you are being somewhat dishonest in saying that every time I criticise your opinion that I must take the direct opposite position myself.
I don't say that the Twin Towers was entirely the fault of the US - I simply say that they did stoke the fires to some extent and that it wasn't totally out of the blue.
I don't say that only poor people hate the "West" I'm merely pointing out that you are wrong when you say only the scions of rich families hate it.

I'm not saying that (I don't think) and anyway, it wouldn't mean that you had to, even if I did.

Re rich man's/poor man's terrorism, we were talking about 9/11. I never said that only the rich elite hate the West. I was making an ironic point about the fact that you were describing the mass murder of civilians as a response to Western intervention in the Mid East. The perpetrators were not the suffering huddled masses or the wretched of the earth or whatever, but well educated and well fed elites who have benefited greatly from contact with the West, with an imperialistic agenda of their own. It's not that only the poor or the rich that hate the West, but that only the rich have the resources to do anything about it.

Back to your very first post.
I think you are making a gross misrepesentation of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, particularly when you say

It's nothing to do with "skillfully pouncing" it's a simple fact that most people don't like to see huge civilian casualties being caused by a vastly superior military force that is reckless as to whether innocent people live or die. If you see that as a piece of propaganda by an evil terrorist force then I think that you are seeing only what you want to see.

Well, I think you're misrepresenting me. Firstly I was trying to look at the WoT in a limited light - as a 4GW conflict, not about the possible, probable or proven justifications for it. That's why I asked swears to take discussion of legitimacy onto another thread. I'm trying to look at the WoT through the model of fourth generational conflict. Secondly, Hezbollah did use the media very clevely, it's one of their specialities after all. Of course people don't like to see huge civilian casualties being caused by a vastly superior military force, that's what I'm talking about, that's one of the supply-lines of 4GW, these are the problems that I'm trying to explore. How can Israel defeat Hezbollah? Check out (the v. anti-war) Van Creveld, "the strong that fight the weak become weak". Without access to Israeli & Western political will, the Hezb would have had much less of a chance - and they want victory just as much as the Israelis. Hence Hezbollah tried to protect their fighters and artillery with the bodies of their countrymen, and it worked.

More generally, I just don't see the situation as this clash of civilisations that you describe. My take is that this viewpoint is just going to cause needless antagonism.

Again, that's not my position: I see this as a war of narratives, not a Huntingtonian clash of civilisations.
 

vimothy

yurp
OK, since the focus here seems to be Iraq, I think the US could have done right by some or all of the following actions:

1) not supported Saddam in his war against Iran, which obviously stoked existing anti-American sentiment in that country;
2) helped the Iraqi people overthrow Saddam after the first Gulf War;
3) if not 2), then at least not imposed sanctions that effectively punished the public without harming Saddam, his cronies and his army.

I'm not one of those for whom America can do no right: I just think that, in this situation, it happens to have done a lot of wrong.

I know and all these points are spot on (except I think 3), and part of the ideological justification for the liberation of Iraq. I'm not saying that America has done everything or even anything right (clearly its fucked up pretty badly at times), just that getting these things right would in no way guarantee them good feeling in the Middle East. It's not what America does or doesn't do but what the Muslim world does or doesn't do that is the issue. As for the fundamentalists, they disagree with America and the ideals of liberalism on which it was founded as a point of principal, as the "Great Satan", i.e. the Seducer (Qutb at the church hop in a dry state in '50s America, for e.g. - "the whole place filled with lust") as well as being religious fanatics, so I don't think there's any way to reach them either.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"I'm not saying that (I don't think)"
You said that if "we" just leave the East alone the result will be (a) September the 11th. I said that you can't say that was year dot. You then replied with the Galloway quote which I took to be a representation of my position, if not then why did you say it?
So, to cut a long story short, I think that you did say what I said and, furthermore, I'm surprised that you don't think that you said it because it seemed deliberate to me.

Re rich man's/poor man's terrorism, we were talking about 9/11. I never said that only the rich elite hate the West. I was making an ironic point about the fact that you were describing the mass murder of civilians as a response to Western intervention in the Mid East. The perpetrators were not the suffering huddled masses or the wretched of the earth or whatever, but well educated and well fed elites who have benefited greatly from contact with the West, with an imperialistic agenda of their own.
(leaving aside that you again - despite my disavowal - say that I am describing the mass murder as a response to Western intervention)
Fair enough you were talking specifically of 9/11 and saying that the perpretrators were from rich families. Is that definitely true? I'm sure that the backers were but anway it's hard to say that the people who actually died were doing it because they were annoyed at "the movement of Western cash into the Middle East" isn't it?
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
It's not what America does or doesn't do but what the Muslim world does or doesn't do that is the issue. As for the fundamentalists, they disagree with America and the ideals of liberalism on which it was founded as a point of principal, as the "Great Satan", i.e. the Seducer (Qutb at the church hop in a dry state in '50s America, for e.g. - "the whole place filled with lust") as well as being religious fanatics, so I don't think there's any way to reach them either.

I'm sure you're right that the fundamentalists - almost by definition - can't be reached, but the US/'the West' does need to address policies which encourage support for them. At the moment, Islamic fundamentalism has the revolutionary, anti-imperialist cachet socialism had in the 50s/60s, even though it offers a prison equally, if not more, oppressive than any in the ME. Isloate the fundies from the Arab/Muslim mainstream, turn them into the anachronistic laughing stock they should be, and you've taken a giant step toward solving the problem. The invasion of Iraq was a near-perfect lesson in how NOT to do this.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
Fair enough you were talking specifically of 9/11 and saying that the perpretrators were from rich families. Is that definitely true?

I think it's been fairly well established that most of the 9/11 hijackers came from comparatively middle-class backgrounds. Certainly it would fit a general historical pattern for the most fanatical ideologues to be middle-class.
 

vimothy

yurp
You said that if "we" just leave the East alone the result will be (a) September the 11th. I said that you can't say that was year dot. You then replied with the Galloway quote which I took to be a representation of my position, if not then why did you say it?
So, to cut a long story short, I think that you did say what I said and, furthermore, I'm surprised that you don't think that you said it because it seemed deliberate to me.

No, I only meant that you don't have to take the opposite position to me just because I try to pin it on you.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
sponsored suicide bombers in Israel ($20,000 a time),

Incidentally, this is something I see quoted time and time again. I'm curious - is there any evidence that this was anything but an example of the Arabist posturing Saddam went in for heavily following the first Gulf War? Are there proven cases of suicide bombers' families receiving these payments? Or was it (as I suspect) just Saddam's hot air, eagerly blown about by the Mad Mels of this world?
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I think it's been fairly well established that most of the 9/11 hijackers came from comparatively middle-class backgrounds. Certainly it would fit a general historical pattern for the most fanatical ideologues to be middle-class.

Quite. How many times have we seen the shocked suburban neighbour on the news saying "He was such a nice young man, always polite, studied hard, kept himself to himself..."

Not that these qualities are the exclusive preserve of the middle class, of course, but they're certainly not qualities you'd expect from the alienated ghetto youf, so to speak.
 

vimothy

yurp
(leaving aside that you again - despite my disavowal - say that I am describing the mass murder as a response to Western intervention)
Fair enough you were talking specifically of 9/11 and saying that the perpretrators were from rich families. Is that definitely true? I'm sure that the backers were but anway it's hard to say that the people who actually died were doing it because they were annoyed at "the movement of Western cash into the Middle East" isn't it?

Ok, a response to the West "stoking the fires" then. Don't see that there's a big diff, to be honest.

The highjackers were all well educated, integrated members of the global economy with everything to be grateful for when compared to the poor of the Middle East or indeed the West. I'm sure there are extensive bios of them all knocking about online. Will have a look when I get the chance.

9/11 highjackers were clearly not annoyed at the influx of Western cash into the Middle East, but the direction that Mid Eastern society has taken. (If you're not sure about this, think what it is to be a salafist ("companion of the prophet") fundamentalist). They hated what America represents, as a dominant Christain power, liscentious and decadent, causing the un-mooring of the mind away from Allah towards a secular heaven on Earth of automobiles ice-cream cones and gardening. 9/11 was a publicity stunt aimed at the Muslim world, the Yarmuk option, meant to be the first strike which lit up the Mid East under the banner of jihad and reestablished the historical succession under bin Laden.
 

vimothy

yurp
Incidentally, this is something I see quoted time and time again. I'm curious - is there any evidence that this was anything but an example of the Arabist posturing Saddam went in for heavily following the first Gulf War? Are there proven cases of suicide bombers' families receiving these payments? Or was it (as I suspect) just Saddam's hot air, eagerly blown about by the Mad Mels of this world?

It happened, during the intifada - I'm sure there will be some Israeli websites documenting this fact. The Saudis did as well, though didn't offer as much.
 

Guybrush

Dittohead
nr-main.jpg


Anyone in for repping the new Dissensus paleo-con splinter group?
 

vimothy

yurp
Neo-con, surely.

Don't know why anyone would be hostile to 4GW theory - it seems pretty obvious that there are some strong 4GW arguments against the invasion of Iraq (both Lind and Van Creveld are very anti-war for example) and against what is current American foreign and military policy.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"Ok, a response to the West "stoking the fires" then. Don't see that there's a big diff, to be honest."
I'm saying that it wouldn't have happened without the West's meddling but it ALSO requires fundamentalist psychos to make it happen. The degree to which each is necessary is a point of debate but I think ignoring either ("we can't just live and let live, this is what happens when we do nothing" / "the planes flew out of a swamp we created") are totally unhelpful.

"The highjackers were all well educated, integrated members of the global economy with everything to be grateful for when compared to the poor of the Middle East or indeed the West. I'm sure there are extensive bios of them all knocking about online. Will have a look when I get the chance.
9/11 highjackers were clearly not annoyed at the influx of Western cash into the Middle East, but the direction that Mid Eastern society has taken."
Well, that's what I'm saying really, there is a difference between being middle-class and the rich-schemer of whom you first painted a picture. Also, I think we're in agreement on the second point; that they were annoyed (very annoyed I'd say) about the direction (their) society had taken.
What exactly that means is where we disagree, is it simply that they hate the freedoms and beliefs of the West and the way that such ideas may percolate to their society? - this I take to be your view - or is that they also feel some kind of anger at the way the "West" has backed Israel's (perceived) persecution of Palestinians and its support or otherwise of regimes that it does or does not like etc? I think the latter.
 
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