global financial crash yay!

vimothy

yurp
The answer is nothing, right? And in such a position, and assuming the UK is towards the right of the graph, the private sector is in no position to spend, so the public sector has to. So it becomes more important that the public sector spend is spent on assets, rather than revenue expenditure. High speed rail, anyone?

The UK would also be on the right hand side of the graph. Any state with a current account deficit (i.e. imports > exports) and a positive rate of saving net of investment must already be running a government budget deficit. Any reduction in that deficit must either reduce the current account deficit or private sector saving or both--or cause a large contraction as aggregate spending drops off a cliff, with the knock on effect of reducing tax revenues and increasing transfer payments, i.e. opening up the budget deficit again. All three parties are promising to do exactly that, which is insane. People who complain about the deficit must favour an indebted private sector by definition--wonder how far they'd get campaigning for that: Vote Lab/Lib/Tory: we will make you poorer and deeper in debt.
 

vimothy

yurp
Lemme try to put some numbers on this. This is just off the top of my head so not exact but think these are rough ball park figures for the UK (and hopefully not completely wrong!):

Public sector fiscal deficit ~ 12% GDP

Private sector net saving rate ~ 6% GDP

Current account deficit ~ 6% GDP

The positive private sector saving rate reflects both the increased propensity to save income of the consumer (household sector) but also the collapse in fixed capital formation among firms (business sector), so that absent the deficit we would have to knock whatever the private sector want to net save off GDP, with no net saving achieved, increasing the propensity to save and reducing the propensity to invest (in real assets)--a deflationary spiral. If you throw in lots of private sector debt, which is of course fixed in nominal terms, we're back in the Great Depression.
 

vimothy

yurp
Boom:

The Valukas report also exposes the dysfunctional relationship between the country’s main regulatory bodies and the systemically dangerous institutions (SDIs) they are supposed to be policing. The NY Fed, the regulatory agency led by then FRBNY President Geithner, has a clear statutory mission to promote the safety and soundness of the banking system and compliance with the law. Yet it stood by while Lehman deceived the public through a scheme that FRBNY officials likened to a “three card monte routine” (p. 1470). The report states:

“The FRBNY discounted the value of Lehman’s pool to account for these collateral transfers. However, the FRBNY did not request that Lehman exclude this collateral from its reported liquidity pool. In the words of one of the FRBNY’s on-site monitors: ‘how Lehman reports its liquidity is between Lehman, the SEC, and the world’” (p. 1472).
Translation: The FRBNY knew that Lehman was engaged in smoke and mirrors designed to overstate its liquidity and, therefore, was unwilling to lend as much money to Lehman. The FRBNY did not, however, inform the SEC, the public, or the OTS (which regulated an S&L that Lehman owned) of what should have been viewed by all as ongoing misrepresentations.

The Fed’s behavior made it clear that officials didn’t believe they needed to do more with this information. The FRBNY remained willing to lend to an institution with misleading accounting and neither remedied the accounting nor notified other regulators who may have had the opportunity to do so.

The Fed wanted to maintain a fiction that toxic mortgage products were simply misunderstood assets, so it allowed Lehman to maintain the false pretense of its accounting. We now know from Valukas and from former Treasury Secretary Paulson that the Treasury and the Fed knew that Lehman was massively overstating its on-book asset values: “According to Paulson, Lehman had liquidity problems and no hard assets against which to lend” (p. 1530). We know from Valukas’ interview of Geithner (p. 1502):

The challenge for the government, and for troubled firms like Lehman, was to reduce risk exposure, and the act of reducing risk by selling assets could result in “collateral damage” by demonstrating weakness and exposing “air” in the marks.​

Or, in plain English, the Fed didn’t want Lehman and other SDIs to sell their toxic assets because the sales prices would reveal that the values Lehman (and all the other SDIs) placed on their toxic assets (the “marks”) were inflated with worthless hot air. Lehman claimed its toxic assets were worth “par” (no losses) (p. 1159), but Citicorp called them “bottom of the barrel” and “junk” (p. 1218). JPMorgan concluded: “the emperor had no clothes” (p. 1140). The FRBNY acted shamefully in covering up Lehman’s inflated asset values and liquidity. It constructed three, progressively weaker, stress tests — Lehman failed even the weakest test. The FRBNY then allowed Lehman to administer its own stress test. Need we tell you the results?
 

vimothy

yurp
Everything is still fucked. As soon as these guys have to actually recognise their losses, we're going to have a rerun of 2007.
 

vimothy

yurp
Check this out for fuckin well dodgy--John Duggan, head of the Office for the Comptroller of the Currency (US regulatory body), advising banks on their talking points for meetings with Treasury and Senators:

John -- knowing that you will protect this document's confidentiality -- here is the "message points" to be used in our upcoming dinner meeting with Tim Geithner (next week -- 6 CEOs) and the to-be-scheduled CEO visits to the Hill (with Senators) in the coming weeks.

Call with questions

RD
 

rumble

Well-known member
I'm 100% behind Krugman. I've been on this issue for like 5 years now, so it's nice to see things finally reaching a tipping point.

The Chinese know that they are going to have to change, and they often acknowledge that fact. Actually doing something is another matter. If you've ever done business with any mainlanders it's a familiar scenario. Chinese will say all the right things "yes yes, no problem, we'll do that" but then they never do. They've been jawboning since 2005 and the whole GFC was primarily their fault. I say bring on the trade war.

The Chinese think that they are powerful, but they are not - at all - despite what Niall Ferguson and all the 'china rising' twits would have you believe. The only reason that the US hasn't already smacked them down is because it is really American corporations (Walmart in particular) who are the main beneficiaries of the Chinese policies and the main people lobbying to keep the peg.

I read an article by Billy Mitchell today on China... it was really stupid. Yeah let's just run an absolutely massive, permanent, historically unprecedented deficit rather than fixing the exchange rate WHICH COSTS NOTHING. What an idiot. I guess thats what happens when you have the crude belief that running deficits actually solves every single economic problem in the world. I think the dude has taken one too many hits of acid.

People need to learn about exchange rates. Anyone that ever claims that exchange rates are unimportant, or that trade deficits don't matter ("cause we get real goods for our pieces of paper!" *slaps forehead*) is basically an idiot.
 

vimothy

yurp
Krugman is copping a lot of shit for this.

My instinctive reaction is the CAD is bad news for employment and deflationary. I'm not sure where Mitchell is going with this one, but I was confused enough to post a comment. I know that the MMT line is that "exports are a cost, imports are a benefit", since the US gets real goods and services in exchange for paper tokens. *BUT* US labour doesn't get mobilised producing these bits of paper.

Okay, I'm trying to think this one through in my head. It's obvious that the CAD represents a demand leakage so that America is spending more than it earns. Which is not great. And the US government is not buying up unemployed labour, and isn't about to start--so the deficit must effect employment. On the other hand, China are supplying real goods and services. So the amount of real goods and services is bigger, but the total amount of income avaiable to purchase those goods and services is smaller...?
 

rumble

Well-known member
"I know that the MMT line is that "exports are a cost, imports are a benefit", since the US gets real goods and services in exchange for paper tokens. *BUT* US labour doesn't get mobilised producing these bits of paper. "

Yeah, that's the "MMT" line as defined by Bill Mitchell - which is why I don't subscribe to "MMT", a concept that seems to be largely synonymous with "whatever Bill Mitchell thinks", a lot of which is half-baked nonsense. I think that his stuff is really muddled, and he is adding in his own bizarre beliefs as parts of "MMT" even though all the other supposed MMTers or allies of MMT don't even believe the same thing. For example the Strategic Analysis papers at the Levy institute are manifestly opposed to this thinking on trade deficits and exchange rates.
 

rumble

Well-known member
this is the one I was referring to:

http://www.levy.org/pubs/sa_dec_08.pdf

I'm pretty sure you've already read it.

"At the moment, the recovery plans under consideration by the United States and many other countries seem to be concentrated on the possibility of using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
But, however well coordinated, this approach will not be sufficient.
What must come to pass, perhaps obviously, is a world-wide recovery of output, combined with sustainable balances in international trade."

"in 1999, at a time when there was an
emphatic consensus that “the good times were here to stay,” we took the contrarian view—well
ahead of the curve—that unsustainable imbalances were building up that would eventually
require both a large fiscal stimulus and a sustained rise in net exports, preferably via a substan-
tial depreciation of the dollar."
 

vimothy

yurp
Yeah, I've read that. Wonder if Mitchell will write a post slagging off Godley Papadimitriou and Zezza! Somehow, I thinks not.
 

vimothy

yurp
But there is something of value in Mitchell's analysis, I think. Money is just a piece of paper--in fact, it's just an accounting measure--and of less value than the real goods and services for which it can be exchanged. We're not on the gold standard, so accumulating cash balances doesn't actually bring any real benefits. Money is not a real commodity. That said, the CAD obviously reduces aggregate income in the States. That's inescapable. It's no different to a government surplus in that respect, and we all know how he feels about those. I think Mitchell is basically confusing the world he'd like to live in with the world he actually lives in.
 

vimothy

yurp
It's a good column. His last one (on the EU) was good too.

Someone posted this in the comments to Mitchell's post:

Hence, in the world we actually inhabit, free trade is not the panacea its proponents propagate. If we are to advance the economic interests of the bulk of the citizenry in a decent and humane fashion, we must promote a full employment policy domestically, and couple this with a flexible exchange rate regime internationally. With these institutions in place (on a global scale), exports become a cost and imports a benefit, and the conditions under which free trade is beneficial will have been established.

WHEN EXPORTS ARE A COST AND IMPORTS ARE A BENEFIT: THE CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH FREE TRADE IS BENEFICIAL
 
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vimothy

yurp
Thinking more about this last night: it is deflationary. China's trade partners get more goods and less income.

BTW, did you notice Sumner, Avent et al piling in on Krugman? There was even this from the FT, which was a watching-your-Dad-dance moment if ever there was one, linking to Sumner's lightweight and confused "takedown" of Krugman:

Paul Krugman’s protectionism: maximum pwnage
 

rumble

Well-known member
yeah I call it the Krugman Derangement Syndrome. Sumner is the most ridiculous... he's like Captain Ahab.

Krugman does make mistakes once in a while, but they are pretty rare. Most of the time his critics only succeed in showcasing their bumbling mediocrity.

For some reason this China thing has a lot of people wanting to take the "contrarian" pro-China side without knowing anything about the issues. I don't think many of them had even thought about China's exchange rate until this year. They are bringing up the same specious Walmart lobby talking points that were discredited in 2003-2004, but they seem to be completely oblivious to this fact.

This guy is the top expert on China's exchange rate in the Western world, and he is fully on the Krugman/Wolf side:
http://www.iie.com/staff/author_bio.cfm?author_id=24
Come to think of it, pretty much every good economist in the world and every China expert that isn't employed by the PRC (and even many that are) agree with Krugman. For most serious people it's not even debatable anymore. The case has been closed for 5 years.
 

rumble

Well-known member
haha yeah it's pretty funny to see. someone needs to mention to them that the strongest financial systems that didn't implode were zero reserve systems in Canada and New Zealand (Australia too maybe?)

I'm curious to see how the monetarists like Sumner will make sense of this move.

Also, I knew this was coming: Krugman showdown with Stephen Roach, the #1 paid shill for China & the labor arbitrageurs.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/steve-roach-goes-batty/

I hate that guy
 
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