http://vorosmccracken.com/2010wcsimresult120409.html
this guy has some amazing simulator which predicts teams chances of progressing at each stage, he's run it 10000 times.
so england have a 9.87% chance of winning the whole thing, 37.55% chance of reaching the semis, 10.3% chance of getting knocked out in the group stages.
brazil strong favourites, followed by spain, holland and then us. he reckons we're twice as likely to win it as italy.
order he thinks the groups will finish in (percentage likelihood to get kicked out at group stage):
A: france (30.93%), mexico (43.36%), uruguay (45.25%), south africa (80.46%)
B: argentina (20.59%), greece (54.05%), nigeria (59.45%), south korea (65.91%)
C: england (10.32%), usa (35.61%), slovenia (69.79%), algeria (84.28%)
D: germany (23.68%), serbia (48.78%), australia (54.1%), ghana (73.44%)
E: holland (20.69%), denmark (50.12%), japan (62.74%), cameroon (66.45%)
F: italy (16.39%), paraguay (32.24%), slovakia (56.13%), new zealand (95.24%)
G: brazil (9.17%), portugal (41.26%), cote d'ivore (54.73%), north korea (94.84%)
H: spain (12.01%), chile (55.84%), switzerland (61.83%), honduras (70.32%)
which would leave a round of 16 line up:
france vs greece
england vs serbia
germany vs usa
argentina vs mexico
holland vs paraguay
brazil vs chile
italy vs denmark
spain vs portugal
leading to:
france vs england
holland vs brazil
germany vs argentina
italy vs spain
leading to:
germany vs england
brazil vs spain
leading to...
perhaps? have i got that table right? i am really confused about how the knockout stage is working
(oh and doesn't this shed light on how exciting the group stage is going to be? mexico vs uruguay, greece vs nigeria vs south korea, serbia vs australia, denmark vs japan vs cameroon, portugal vs cote d;ivoire, chile vs switzerland vs honduras all look tight)
