padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Christ. We all know the stuff comes through the tunnels from Egypt, and yes some of it comes from Iran, but with regard to this particular operation, I see no reason to suspect any particular link. Bear in mind that Israel has been looking for a chance to attack Iran for years, those annual speeches at the UN, the nuclear threat etc.

Id say in fact that maybe the biggest threat in the medium term is of this being used as casus belli for a hot war with Iran, esp with a US carrier group steaming into the region.
boils down to the basics for me. means and motive.

Iranian regime is Hamas's primary backer (if not them, who else) and they have a mutual goal of upsetting normalization

doesn't have to be a direct order from the head of Quds Force to be a huge ROI for years of investment in Hamas

I think you're underselling this

I grant it's absolutely a two-way street, all the Israeli saber-rattling, attacking Iranian proxies in Syria, etc

but come on, cui bono here. Hamas and Iran. not average Palestinians - this if anything is a disaster for Palestinian liberation.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
also Israeli govt has obv never wanted its own war with Iran - how would that even work? it's wanted the U.S. to start a war with Iran.

Osirak type strike is impossible bc of dispersal of Iranian nuclear program

as always who knows, but U.S. jumping into a hot war with Iran would be even more stunning development than this attack

in that sense I think it's very plausible for Israeli govt to downplay Iranian involvement, if indeed it existed

you can't do much about it openly, you just look impotent. bide your time, make reprisal plans. Israelis have a very long history of that.
 

droid

Well-known member
Yeah, I dunno. I think the potential harms outweigh the gains from an Iranian perspective. We don't know the specific of the relationship at the moment ofc, but there was a significant split between Iran and Hamas around 2015 as Hamas had supported various Syrian rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime, in fact IIRC Hamas and Hezbollah actually clashed directly in Qusayr and some other areas near the Lebanese border around 2013. This is why Hamas was so pissed off about the Saudi/Israel deal, because the Saudis and (I think) Qatar are currently their main source of funds.


But regardless, we all know what happened after 911, it'scertainly no huge stretch to see a politically beleaguered Netanyahu use this to finally try and get the US to give him the green light for the Iranian strikes hes been after for the last decade or more.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Yeah, I dunno. I think the potential harms outweigh the gains from an Iranian perspective. We don't know the specific of the relationship at the moment ofc, but there was a significant split between Iran and Hamas around 2015 as Hamas had supported various Syrian rebel groups opposed to the Assad regime, in fact IIRC Hamas and Hezbollah actually clashed directly in Qusayr and some other areas near the Lebanese border around 2013. This is why Hamas was so pissed off about the Saudi/Israel deal, because the Saudis and (I think) Qatar are currently their main source of funds.
well fair enough, you're more up to date on that than I am

it's true that preventing normalization is a Hamas goal that happens to dovetail with Iran's
 

droid

Well-known member
Like I havent followed Syria that closely, Danny would probably know more, but I think its pretty common knowledge the Syria caused huge damage to those relationships, another reason perhaps why Israel was so complacent about Hamas' potential for action given the split with their traditional allies - may also explain Hezbollah's relative reluctance to engage - though that seems to be kicking off a bit now.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Christ. We all know the stuff comes through the tunnels from Egypt, and yes some of it comes from Iran, but with regard to this particular operation, I see no reason to suspect any particular link. Bear in mind that Israel has been looking for a chance to attack Iran for years, those annual speeches at the UN, the nuclear threat etc.
OTOH, Iran has been supplying Russia with thousands of drones for use in Ukraine, so maybe they're feeling particularly cocky and secure under Russia's nuclear umbrella right now.

Regarding the US's alleged desire to have a proper go at Iran, that's been an on and off discussion around these parts for donkey's years, and nothing has ever come of it. I doubt the Democrats would want to, since Biden is dependent for support from young progressives who see him as preferable to Trump but don't particularly like him beyond that, and who'd be appalled at the prospect of getting involved in yet another hot war in the Middle East. The Republicans don't have that problem, and you may have had a point if the Neocons were still in charge, but the faction currently dominsting the party is bought and paid for by Russia, and hardly likely to support an attack on a major Russian ally/proxy.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Iran is a sidetrack rn anyway tbh. won't be if it does actually lead to Israeli strikes on Iran ofc (which I still find v unlikely).

what is actually happening rn I mean jfc, a "complete siege" of Gaza and gearing up for potentially a massive ground invasion.

I've had the bad feeling all along that they're going to dare Hamas to kill the hostages this time (and Hamas will call the bluff)

like this may have broken or just unleashed something - again, like 9/11 - in the Israeli leadership and all bets are off

like potential for casualties in the tens of thousands. mass starvation. Stalingrad type destruction. apocalypse stuff.

I hope with all my heart not, but they're talking like that rn

but 9/11 produced hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis, the CIA torture program, etc
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
may also explain Hezbollah's relative reluctance to engage - though that seems to be kicking off a bit now.
from what I saw that was initiated by PIJ border raid and Hezbollah has been caught in the tit for tat and responded

rather than initiating on their own

idk they have their own domestic problems it seems like? Lebanon is kind of a mess

plus idk if they're clamoring to be associated with mass civilian murder and rape

have always shied away from targeting civilians and non-military targets, at least publicly
 

droid

Well-known member
US deployment in the region is extremely worrying. It could be a warning to Israel ofc, in fact, thats probably a part of it, but their very presence there is a hazard in of itself. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have basically driven Russia out of the black sea, and a US carrier is a very tempting target.
 

droid

Well-known member
Iran is a sidetrack rn anyway tbh. won't be if it does actually lead to Israeli strikes on Iran ofc (which I still find v unlikely).

what is actually happening rn I mean jfc, a "complete siege" of Gaza and gearing up for potentially a massive ground invasion.

I've had the bad feeling all along that they're going to dare Hamas to kill the hostages this time (and Hamas will call the bluff)

like this may have broken or just unleashed something - again, like 9/11 - in the Israeli leadership and all bets are off

like potential for casualties in the tens of thousands. mass starvation. Stalingrad type destruction. apocalypse stuff.

I hope with all my heart not, but they're talking like that rn

but 9/11 produced hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis, the CIA torture program, etc

Yeah, this seems like a real possibility, and the consequences are mind boggling. The US will go along with it, but it will cause huge internal divisions in Europe - thats already started in fact, we protested about the statement that all PA aid would be suspended and the EU commission had to roll back on it.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
US deployment in the region is extremely worrying. It could be a warning to Israel ofc, in fact, thats probably a part of it, but their very presence there is a hazard in of itself. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have basically driven Russia out of the black sea, and a US carrier is a very tempting target.
things do have a habit of escalating sure, but I find it unlikely. the world ain't multipolar yet, especially that close to that many American bases.

if there was a war already then I agree an inviting target but to start a war? no. madness.
 

Clinamenic

Binary & Tweed
Very helpful read, thanks for sharing.

This in particular, re: all the talk about intelligence failures. This seems to argue that it was a result of intentional intel siloing.

"Q: I’d always heard that there was a lot of Israeli counterintelligence activity within Hamas, which I assume is still the case. Why do you think this plan did not get revealed?

A: Different people within Hamas or commenting around Hamas have talked about this being a very tightly held secret within a very small group of military men and others within the organization. What I can say is that, historically, Hamas has always maintained a degree of separation between its military wing and its political bureau. The political bureau would put forward a strategy. And that strategy would then provide the direction for the military wing to carry out its tactics without actually informing the political bureau. So the political bureau gives a vague direction, and it has no information or insight about when or how a certain operation is going to take place. It strikes me that this is something that probably happened here—that there was a general sense of watching Israeli weakness and discombobulation in the past six months and the sense of giving some kind of direction for an attack, but not actually knowing when or how the attack would happen."
 
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