for the record, I'm not a believer in peak oil or the lack thereof. I'm open to different views. but alright, point by point then:
Lynch's Points
1. People have made numerous predictions about the specific date of peak oil that have proved to be wrong.
No arguments here. Doesn't discredit the idea tho, just the people who made those predictions. Making dramatic, specific predictions like that is usually a bad idea.
2. Peak oil proponents do poor/don't understand science, specifically geology.
I'm not an expert, neither is Vimothy or anyone else on Dissensus AFAIK, so none of us can dispute (or confirm) any of Lynch's points here. here's
peakoil.com's brief explanation re: discovery vs. consumption, rates of discovery & so on. I have definitely heard scientists say very different things from Lynch. I don't who's right & who's wrong. Lynch does base some of his arguments on assumptions about technical advancements that will make more oil "recoverable".
3. Peak oil advocates are wrong to worry about geopolitical instability because the industry will just invest in new oil-producing regions that are more stable.
Lynch says "the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota." the Bakken shale fields have, by all accounts, ~3-5 billion barrels, or what the U.S. uses in 6-8 months.
here's a recent article on oil in East Africa, about a discovery on the Uganda/DCR border. I don't think I need to remind anyone about the "stability" of East Africa around the Kivus. "off West Africa" looks right, or at least I found several articles discussing recent discoveries/drilling/etc there.
here's an article about oil in Brazil & Petrobras. Verdict on Lynch's point: mixed - there are some new regions but their greater stability is dubious at best.
4. People who talk about peak oil are stupid; Malthusian, Chicken Littles, harebrained.
Is there a point to answering this one?
Vimothy's Points
1. The unorthodox view is important. Lynch's view is the unorthodox view.
A resounding yes to the first. The second I'm very dubious of. Why is his the unorthodox view? How is peak oil the established view?
2. Someone is right & someone is wrong. Peak oil is "true" or it isn't.
But the science is inexact, the models used for prediction are inexact, technological advances are unforeseeable, stability in oil-producing regions is often unpredictable. Generally, there are too many factors and too much uncertainty to arrive at a single clear answer. If you have evidence to the contrary by all means produce it.