anti-BNP tactical vote for English folk on June 4th

(i don't include Wales or Scotland as the BNP did badly in both places in '04.)

the sums i've been looking at are in my native North West, but please chip in anybody else from other regions. (BNP polled strongly in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside regions last time around for eg.)

given the PR system in use i would like to believe the Greens with their lovely videos about voting smart, but every single piece i've read in the press/blogs etc re the northwest seems to look at the big three parties, and then make an assumption about this final seat for the fourth-strongest party (8th seat, there are 8 seats up for grabs in the North West, as there are in London) being split between the Greens or the BNP, and quite a lot of people mention poor polling stats for Ukip.

my question is: does anybody have any indication of how Ukip are going to do (specifically in the North West but anywhere really)?
i've read plenty of comment saying Ukip are not a concern and their support has been falling but i'd have thought - anecdotal here, granted - they are going to do very very well. also, i've seen mention of bad polls for them but no evidence of this in the slightest.

i was going Green but have now paused and wonder if - as bad as this sounds - a tactical vote for Ukip would be the way forward. (the tragicomedy of an EU vote for a party that wants to leave the EU entirely, of course, does not escape me.)
hypothetically, if this region polls, say, Tory, Labour, Lib-Dem in order and the fourth party will be Ukip (as they were last time), to really make sure the BNP don't get anywhere, the most effective use of my vote is Ukip (who i despise personally), rather than the Greens.

yes i know all about Ukip, how this could be ultimately self-defeating, how i would be washing my hands afterward for a long time blah blah, but they are by far the less bad choice versus the BNP, and there is no use preening if the BNP are sniffing at the door; Nick Griffin is after all standing himself in the North West region.

thoughts from any of you political science types, leaflet droppers, etc?

ta.

yup, good points there.

just found this collection of polls, which is a bit helpful.

Mr. Tea said:

Also, whatever you think of UKIP, it's encouraging (for people living in area where they are almost bound to end up with seats, I mean) that they rejected outright BNP overtures in the direction of a pact or merger last year.

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a fair point T, and worth noting.

out of all the British Euro regions, there's like what about eight in England, East, South East, South West and so on, the only three really in danger from the BNP going on recent history are the West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, and North West.

kinda depressing our four biggest English provincial cities are all in those places.

Crackerjack you are quite right, it's the like of Wigan, Stoke, Burnley, parts of Sandwell, etc., rather than, say, wards in Ardwick or Small Heath or Everton that are giving the fuckers comfort..

bassbeyondreason said:

There's definitely a few BNP types in Everton.

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well, agreed, but my point is the main worry in, say, the North West, is bits of Pendle, Burnley, etc., comparative to more inner-city areas.
(FWIW, i know the kick-off in Leigh the other month had BNP muscle ferried in from St Helens and Liverpool. well, so they say, i wasn't there.)

via a Blackburn council employee mate i know a one-time Blackburn with Darwen member of theirs was a truly useless beggar.

(but cheers to bassbeyondreason as that is a very good point that i clearly ignored and i don't want to sound like a cock.)

nice one

80 million low-wage, Muslim Turks

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they'd do well in Austria or France with that kind of language..