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Thread: Iranian democracy

  1. #1
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    Default Iranian democracy

    Much talk of possible vote-rigging, even suggestions from Moussavi camp that people should avoid casting their ballots in mosques, which sounds almost suicidally brave on his part.

    Ahmadinejad may lose (good!), but western media badly underestimated his appeal last time...

    Moussavi has promised an end to the religious police and jaw jaw with the great satan. He sounds too good to win. But the enthusiasm for the process in Iran is palapable. Even if their boy wins, can the Mullahs keep a lid on it?

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    It would be really a positive step if Ahmad was unseated.

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    Default Cunt

    Venezuela's socialist leader, Hugo Chávez, is backing Ahmadinejad, AP reports.

    Chávez described him as "a courageous fighter for the Islamic Revolution" and praised his "defence of the Third World, and struggle against imperialism"

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    Venezuela's socialist leader, Hugo Chávez, is backing Ahmadinejad, AP reports.

    Chávez described him as "a courageous fighter for the Islamic Revolution" and praised his "defence of the Third World, and struggle against imperialism"
    Chavez is a fucking knob. That's my considered opinion.

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    Mousavi Supporters, Isfahan:


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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    But the enthusiasm for the process in Iran is palapable. Even if their boy wins, can the Mullahs keep a lid on it?
    if you've not checked them out Cracker the two opinion pieces from Yank broadsheets i've put on the 'Bama goes Cairo thread are worth a min of yer.

    i am hopeful that the best candidate gets in and ultimately optimistic in general for Iran (of course) but guardedly cautious about what this Event means for the people of Iran - short to medium term anyroad - for all the obvious reasons to do with the Khomeinist dictatorship that we know and wuv.
    Last edited by scottdisco; 12-06-2009 at 09:57 AM. Reason: clarifies

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    I think the Mullahs are ultimately pragmatists, and may consider massive electoral fraud unwise. The election is really for the Iranian government's press spokesman - why not elect someone who is likely to improve relations with the US? Iran has been willing to deal with the US before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdisco View Post
    if you've not checked them out Cracker the two opinion pieces from Yank broadsheets i've put on the 'Bama goes Cairo thread are worth a min of yer.
    Ta Scott - will do this pm

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    I think the Mullahs are ultimately pragmatists, and may consider massive electoral fraud unwise. The election is really for the Iranian government's press spokesman - why not elect someone who is likely to improve relations with the US? Iran has been willing to deal with the US before.
    Sure, under Khatami, Moussavi's mentor.

    The Mullahs are obviously more pragmatic than some of their rhetoric - and Obama wwill make a much worse demon than his predecessor - but ultimately they want to retain control, and the lesson of the Gorbachev era is that small steps of liberalisation have a way of getting out of hand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    The election is really for the Iranian government's press spokesman - why not elect someone who is likely to improve relations with the US? Iran has been willing to deal with the US before.
    good comments Josef.

    the Boston Globe piece i refer to in your Obama Does Cairo thread has some reasons to fear an uptick in persecution of really vocal domestic activists if the nice guy gets in (as Iran is competent enough to send their agents throughout Caucasian states to her north bumping off dissidents when they feel like it, i am sure if they need to re-up internal repression*, then that is a very small thing for the state apparatus)

    what Hugo C is reported to have said does not surprise me, he is just another caudillo who views foreign policy through a particularly stupid prism

    * not including that against religious and other minorities which continues as a matter of course

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    I think the Mullahs are ultimately pragmatists
    Yes, but their calculus is one of survuival: its the people vs. the IRGC vs. the IRGC... watch Rezaee?

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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    ...lesson of the Gorbachev era is that small steps of liberalisation have a way of getting out of hand.
    But the lesson of Khatami was that Mullahs were able to keep a lid on reform - in fact, they consolidated their power during his Presidency. I don't know what Ahmadinejad is still doing for the Mullahs, really... why they would think that they needed him. That said, I'm not really an expert in Iranian internal politics, and the factions involved there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    But the lesson of Khatami was that Mullahs were able to keep a lid on reform - in fact, they consolidated their power during his Presidency.
    I agree that better relations with the US won't do the Mullahs any harm. But I'm intrigued by Mousavi's pledge to dismantle the religious police - can he do it? Would they let him?

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    Quote Originally Posted by josef k. View Post
    why not elect someone who is likely to improve relations with the US? Iran has been willing to deal with the US before.
    I think that they want to. But the internal pressures are preeminent. The Mullahs will pick a compromise candidate who is least worst for all their constituent groups. If they pick Moussavi, Ahmedinejad's supporters in the IRGC will be alienated. If they pick Ahmedinejad, Moussavi's supporters will be alienated. And Ahmedinejad doesn't even carry all of the IRGC any more. Complicated.

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