Rolling Afghanistan Thread

Double agent

Story of the double agent that really burned them ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/05/world/asia/05cia.html?ref=world

see yr double agent and raise you
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/04/afghanistan-cia-bomber-triple-agent

Two recent pieces from Peter Bergen:

The Front: The Taliban-Al Qaeda merger

The Battle for Tora Bora--How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.

vimothy said:

Two recent pieces from Peter Bergen:

The Front: The Taliban-Al Qaeda merger

The Battle for Tora Bora--How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.

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Thanks Vim, Bergen is usually otm .
And this account just shows how military past is almost always prelude - or direct guide to the present and future.
Boo ! Those cats were that close ...
Somewhere there is a 'great escape' movie brewing.

Line up

Racking them up up in Quetta, the Pakistan side of things.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/23/world/asia/23islamabad.html?hp

Ha, how long before we have commanders saying such-and-such an offensive has encountered difficulties because their detachment was supplied with the wrong calibre of bullet(-point)s?

IME powerpoint per se isn't the problem, it's people who don't know how to use it. The two worst kinds of offender are people who think it's acceptable to produce slides that are nothing but wall-to-wall text, usually in black Times New Roman on plain white, which is then typically read out loud to you for extra 'impact'; and dicks who are apparently convinced the way to use a laser pointer is to keep it on the whole fucking time and wave it around in a lazy circle on every slide while addressing the audience. Edit: and then there are the clip-art junkies, God help us...

People should be made to take a basic profficiency course in PP before being allowed to use it. And no-one who hasn't passed at least Intermediate should be allowed within arm's reach of a laser pointer. Gah.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html

So the Obama administration is hungry for some positive news to come out of Afghanistan. Yet the American officials also recognize that the mineral discoveries will almost certainly have a double-edged impact.

Instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the country.

The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources.

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Would not want to be a woman in Afghanistan right now.

I mean, it probably doesn't have much to recommend it at the best of times, but it's no doubt going to get a lot worse very soon.

What's the right international response to a situation like this? US rightfully condemned for decades of occupying/meddling in another country's affairs, and now also roundly criticized for pulling out and possibly (likely?) letting it descend into chaos, repression and further misery.

Or is that the prejudice of low expectations, that we just assume things in Afghanistan will go to shit when maybe we should trust that local leaders will resolve their own disputes and conditions will improve? Or is that even in the cards?

Leo said:

Or is that the prejudice of low expectations, that we just assume things in Afghanistan will go to shit when maybe we should trust that local leaders will resolve their own disputes and conditions will improve? Or is that even in the cards?

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I think journalists will be adding "re-Talibanization" to their vocabularies by the end of the year.

Mr. Tea said:

I think journalists will be adding "re-Talibanization" to their vocabularies by the end of the year.

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I guess my question is: should the international community simply accept that, take a hands-off position? Russia and the US gave it a go, to no avail.

Leo said:

I guess my question is: should the international community simply accept that, take a hands-off position? Russia and the US gave it a go, to no avail.

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No idea. Every option seems bad, TBH.

Mr. Tea said:

Would not want to be a woman in Afghanistan right now.

I mean, it probably doesn't have much to recommend it at the best of times, but it's no doubt going to get a lot worse very soon.

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it depends where you're talking about. in a lot of the country it basically never changed after the US invasion. its very overstated how far women's rights have come as a result of the war. it was part of the way that the americans and the brits justified the war and it got emphasised a lot. but you are probably right about women in kabul, herat and mazaar. although it remains to be seen if the taliban will take these cities, and if they do take them how they will govern when they get there.

in terms of what the international community should do: they're never going to not be involved. its a fantasy that somewhere like afghanistan will be itself alone, without one faction or another being supported by other countries. pakistan are obviously already very involved. they're winning, actually. in terms of what the americans and the europeans should do: they've already proved that they don't have it in them to win the fight. it won't be a hands off positon. people will say things and the UN will be all over it. but the west isn't powerful enough to have a say in what happens to women in afghanistan; its something that the afghans will decide. in a way that will definitely be bad.

version said:

Tajikistan calls up reservists to bolster border as Afghan troops flee Taliban

Tajikistan's president on Monday ordered the mobilisation of 20,000 military reservists to bolster the border with Afghanistan after more than 1,000 Afghan security personnel fled across the frontier in response to Taliban militant advances.

www.reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE Taliban aim to present written peace plan at talks as soon as next month

The Taliban plan to present a written peace proposal to the Afghan government side as soon as next month, a spokesman for the Islamist insurgents said even as they make major territorial gains in the breach left by departing foreign forces.

www.reuters.com

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its moving faster than i think anyone expected. whole chunks of the north seem to be being given over without a fight, with the afghan army just leaving. predictions from afghanistan pundits are generally pretty dire, but it's hard to know if these are very considered opinons, because all of this is happening so fast. it's not clear at all what the big players who normally control the north are up to (dostum, atta noor), and maybe there is some bigger game going on behind the scenes. but there is genuinely a bit of a fear that the taliban could make it even into places like panjshir now that they've taken badakhshan, which is something i wouldn't have expected to be on the cards as little as three days ago.

maybe they'll lose the momentum. but if it carries on like this it won't be long before they start to take even the major cities. at that point in europe (and pakistan, iran, turkey) we can probably expect a major new wave of refugees. apparently the numbers have already picked up a lot going over into Iran, but as always none of this is properly counted and its never really possible to confirm much of what you hear.

absolutely no idea what to make of that news about the taliban's peace plan. sounds like it might be some kind of bullshit to me, or maybe an attempt from the taliban guys in Doha to take back a bit of control from the military guys in pakistan and afghanistan.