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comelately

Wild Horses
So called 'Herd Immunity' is 60%, at which point reproductivity levels fall below 1.0 (assuming Coronavirus R2.5) and the number of cases should reduce but we'd still be looking at a figure of way above 60% most likely for population infected.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
The problem is that with Johnson and Trump we basically have the worst of both worlds - lack of any kind of nimble thinking and inventiveness combined with creeping authoritarianism that fails to bring any of the supposed benefits.

Nail on head

And what more perfect scenario to increase authoritarianism than a global pandemic in which people are atomised thru fear
 
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comelately

Wild Horses
I've gone through various stages of thinking/feeling on this, currently I'm moving towards the 'young Brits might avoid visiting Grandma, but they're not going to spend 6 months not going out to avoid the virus' stage.

There was 2.9 million people 80+ in the UK in 2011.

Many of the deaths from Corona were people who already had underlying health conditions. How many young people's lives should we destroy so that sickly people don't get claimed by this infection and live on a little while with relatively low quality of life?

I'll probably think something else in a hour. Maybe I just need to justify going to the gym.

Maybe Luka is avoiding posting to say something he might regret. Hope he's alright out there somewhere.
 

droid

Well-known member
I realise everyone's a bit stressed and Im not gonna quote cos I hope you'll delete that post.

But, WTF? Firstly the assumptions that 'not going out' is going to 'destroy' young people's lives.

Then the callous disregard for the lives of others, followed by the awful miscalculations.

You have to add together everyone from 60-100+. Then all the 'sickly' (about 1/10th of the population probably), then all of the people who'll be denied a normal health service if this hits full blast, then all of the social disruption, riots, psychological impact etc for when the health system collapses and the govt starts digging mass graves to bury 1 million+ corpses. The medium to long term downstream political, economic and social effects...
 

muser

Well-known member
I don't think authoritarianism was the main factor that led to China, Korea et al success but collectivism. People not wanting to be the bad apple in the community, a general fear of castigation and having a wider view of society is essential in keeping enough people to do the right things. The community polices itself. I've heard in Japan and Vietnam there have been endless witch hunts for people who aren't following policy or were identified as spreading the disease.
 

droid

Well-known member
I didn't make a calculation.

Yeah you did. You're suggesting that the possible death of up to 20% of the old and sick isnt worth the potential inconvenience to the young.

And btw - youth is no guarantee of safety. You could still die, you could recover and end up with a life changing condition afterwards or you get very sick and be denied hospital treatment from a system that is collapsing due to being swamped with cases.
 
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comelately

Wild Horses
Yeah you did. You're suggesting that the possible death of up to 20% of the old and sick isnt worth the potential inconvenience to the young.

And btw - youth is no guarantee of safety. You could still die, you could recover and end up with life changing condition afterwards or you get very sick and be denied hospital treatment from a system that is collapsing due to being swamped with cases.

I didn't make an explicit calculation, so you are critiquing a strawman. But do you think the very notion of a calculation is wrong, or just the calculation you have inferred?
 

droid

Well-known member
I didn't make an explicit calculation, so you are critiquing a strawman. But do you think the very notion of a calculation is wrong, or just the calculation you have inferred?

Yeah, it was implicit, same difference.

But to be clear, you're asking me if I think the trade off between inconvenience for some people vs death for others is 'wrong'?

I dont think you need me to answer that.
 

droid

Well-known member
And as for the wider utilitarian argument - this doesnt even rise to the level of the trolley problem.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Something I think is worth pointing out is that we can probably disregard conspiracy theories along the lines that this is a deliberate attempt to cull the burdensome elderly.

I mean, think about it. If there were a mass die-off among the over-60s in either this country or the USA, then who the fuck is going to vote Tory/Republican in the next GE? It'd be a recipe for continuous Labour/Democratic governments for a generation.
 
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john eden

male pale and stale
How do you feel that young people’s lives might be destroyed, exactly?

Perhaps expanding on this extraordinarily vague point might clarify things for others.
 

comelately

Wild Horses
How do you feel that young people’s lives might be destroyed, exactly?

Perhaps expanding on this extraordinarily vague point might clarify things for others.

Hard to capture briefly but reasonable amount of data to show that graduating during a recession, for example, is ruinous for long term prospects. Could well affect life expectancy infact.

I am in the gym, but it's not about inconvenience and I think we all know that.
 
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