Iowa Primary

trza

Well-known member
Ron Paul held a campaign event in the poorest zip code in MI, and sent a campaign letter in Arabic aimed at the largest Arabic American community in the USA in Detroit. I would have thought he would win at least one county in the UP, eh?
 

Bangpuss

Well-known member
Cheers man. Pretty happy with it. Hopefully they'll have me again. Feel free to wade into the comments and defend/demolish me... There are a few hissy comments but hopefully the editors don't take too much notice of them.
 

Mr. Tea

Shub-Niggurath, Please
Staff member
Interesting. Do you think Hezza could have succeeded Thatcher if he'd had his magnificent mane trimmed back?
 

Bangpuss

Well-known member
It's a tough call. Heseltine's was too divisive and non-conformist to be taken to heart by the Tories. I think the electorate would have loved him, though, much like they love Boris. Voters like rebels more than politicians.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
It's a tough call. Heseltine's was too divisive and non-conformist to be taken to heart by the Tories. I think the electorate would have loved him, though, much like they love Boris. Voters like rebels more than politicians.
But voters like Boris cos he's in on the joke. Hezza was vain and devoid of humour when it came to himself – he famously hated the Tarzan joke, devised by Steve Bell (I thnk) and later picked up by John Major.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
we'll know after Super Tues if he can drag it out to august
yes he can. ST a pyrrhic victory for mitt - can't win in south, can't win evangelicals, can't win blue-collar, can't win hard right. paul getting 41% of vote in VA a massive embarrassment. OH a repeat of MI (barely wins despite massively outspending everyone, only wins urban areas - i.e. where dems are strong in gen election, loses EVERYTHING rural to santorum). still likely winner but santorum has a shot, certainly will make it a contest, esp if newt +/or paul drops out + he picks up most of their votes. next few weeks mostly southern states that will likely go to santorum (or newt as spoiler). mitt will almost certainly win west coast, + UT of course. TX will be huge.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
also for anyone who don't know newt's being kept in race entirely by the $ of shelden adelson, his billionaire casino magnate sugar daddy. freaking super PACs.
 

Leo

Well-known member
romney is REALLY lucky newt had adelson (and an enormous ego), i'd love to see him drop out and have santorum-romney go one-on-one (paul is not really a factor, is he? he only got 41% in VA because santorum and newt weren't on the ballot).
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Can someone (Padraig, I know I keep asking but you're good at this) explain what a brokered convention would mean?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
^a candidate has to win 1144 delegates in the primaries to secure an outright majority. the first vote of the convention will then automatically give him/her the nomination. if if no one has 1144, delegates are released after that first vote to vote for whomever they want, i.e jockeying among party factions + power brokers to secure those votes. before the primary era (basically 1800s-WWII), smoke-filled room (literally) deals were the norm, trading political favors for support. it's a complete subversion of the popular vote, + I really don't think it would go over well with today's voters.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
here's a delegate count

~1500 left, romney needs ~1/2 to get to 1144. possible but not a lock. dunno how each state awards delegates (all to winner, proportional, etc) so not sure exactly what he must win to get there. CA (mitt) + TX (iffy) by far biggest prizes, then NY (mitt?) + PA (??). still a lot of midwest + southern states where mitt will struggle tho.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
oh also I forgot about superdelegates. most states have a couple. they're not bound by the popular vote so they don't count in that 1144. sometimes if a candidate is really close they can put him/her over the edge on that 1st vote + avoid a brokered convention. anti-democratic as hell but there's american electoral politics for you.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
@leo - paul's a spoiler. consistently pulling ~10% of vote. santorum would likely pick up more of those (tho some of paul's base might just stay home). VA embarrassment for mitt b/c 41% for paul is largely a protest vote against him. yet another reminder of much gop base loathes him.
 

crackerjack

Well-known member
^a candidate has to win 1144 delegates in the primaries to secure an outright majority. the first vote of the convention will then automatically give him/her the nomination. if if no one has 1144, delegates are released after that first vote to vote for whomever they want, i.e jockeying among party factions + power brokers to secure those votes. before the primary era (basically 1800s-WWII), smoke-filled room (literally) deals were the norm, trading political favors for support. it's a complete subversion of the popular vote, + I really don't think it would go over well with today's voters.
That's a crazy system. I assumed candidates were simply eliminated in order – last, ie Paul, goes out first, then his delegates vote for whomever they (or, if they're super-loyal, RP) want. But, crucially, that delegates stay with their man until he's eliminated.

What you've described is, well, as you've described it.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
"^a candidate has to win 1144 delegates in the primaries to secure an outright majority. the first vote of the convention will then automatically give him/her the nomination. if if no one has 1144, delegates are released after that first vote to vote for whomever they want, i.e jockeying among party factions + power brokers to secure those votes. before the primary era (basically 1800s-WWII), smoke-filled room (literally) deals were the norm, trading political favors for support. it's a complete subversion of the popular vote, + I really don't think it would go over well with today's voters."
And at this stage a new candidate could enter?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
^yes. don't think they'd elect a new candidate but at a brokered convention anyone can be nominated. the smart guys (christie, jeb, etc) want no part of Obama.
 
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