This thread was a little premature but now it's time to resserect it. I don't have any money to invest but records show 65% of dissensus users now are in the trading and investing game at an amateur level. So let's talk turkey.
Weird, I was thinking this morning of starting a thread on investing. Undoubtably this would be a far more productive route to willing into being our libidinal desires than reading what K-Punk had to say on the matter.
the reality that everyone should know is that in the short run, investing is exactly the same as gambling. basically nobody (except those in possession of inside information) knows whether a price will rise or fall.
investing in the long run is just sensible handling of money because eventually, on average, most prices will rise.
What is all this monkey business? It started in 1973 when Princeton University professor Burton Malkiel claimed in his bestselling book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, that “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
“Malkiel was wrong,” stated Rob Arnott, CEO of Research Affiliates, while speaking at the IMN Global Indexing and ETFs conference earlier this month. “The monkeys have done a much better job than both the experts and the stock market.”
In their yet-to-be-published article, the company randomly selected 100 portfolios containing 30 stocks from a 1,000 stock universe. They repeated this processes every year, from 1964 to 2010, and tracked the results. The process replicated 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages each year. Amazingly, on average, 98 of the 100 monkey portfolios beat the 1,000 stock capitalization weighted stock universe each year.