UK Election non-frenzy

craner

craner

Beast of Burden
My cousin's boyf is an aide to David Laws. He was with us on a family holiday during Easter. We kind of agreed that the Lib Dems wouldn't do as bad as predicted. I reckon he is now wondering if he will have a job in two weeks time.
 
G

griftert

Well-known member
Yes well played craner. Says something of your judgement that I bought your analysis immediately, I have to say.

All in all, pretty depressing stuff. I can't imagine another situation where the Tories have looked so ideologically and practically weak and yet they've done better than (almost) anyone had predicted. It seems to confirm the notion that the person who frames the terms of the debate has won already.

A move to the right is necessary for the Labour party seems to be the wisdom of the chattering classes. They're not right, but they will be taken so. Oh well.
 
C

comelately

Wild Horses
When the Conservatives push through boundary changes, I think that makes them pretty unassailable in 2020.

Given the polls got it so wrong, Brexit looks pretty likely to me. Unless Cameron decides that the referendum is just too damn risky for the Union and he can sell that to the fringes of his party.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
craner said:
"Yeah, you oppose austerity, but don't forget, you blew people up!"
Click to expand...

My uncle, who is is a republican politician in NI (he lost, I believe) was interviewed on the Beeb recently, and made a big thing about austerity and being progressive. Presumably, that's something that they've learned from watching the SNP. He's a very charming person, but I thought his pitch was shot through with this weird sort of incongruence: we don't get enough funding from Westminster, so we're going to remove it completely as a source; we want to be independent, but we're going to establish closer ties with Europe; we're the party of ethnic minorities and gay rights, but not so long ago, our armed wing was murdering people for belonging to the wrong religious faction or talking to the police.
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2015/05/08/john-lanchester/episode-21-charge-of-the-light-brigade/

This is the biggest and most embarrassing failure the polling organisations have ever had, and it comes after they’ve had more than two decades to learn from their roughly equivalent failure in 1992. It’s all the odder because the same methods that didn’t work in England worked fine north of the border, where the polling organisations accurately forecast the SNP triumph. The pollsters did something or things very wrong. We’ll find out what soon enough, but it was probably a mix of ‘shy Tories’ and people deciding at the last moment to buy the line about having to vote Tory to keep out the SNP.
Click to expand...
 
Leo

Leo

Well-known member
what do you think is behind the polling problem? there's often talk about how it's outdated to use home landline telephone numbers for polling because it doesn't reach a true representation of the electorate. that seemed like it could have been true in the states in 2012 when romney's pollsters had him tied or even ahead right before election day, perhaps old white folks were the only ones home and willing to participate (or the only ones who still even have a landline).

maybe david axelrod will refund his $300k consulting fee...
 
owengriffiths

owengriffiths

Owen
vimothy said:
I thought his pitch was shot through with this weird sort of incongruence: we don't get enough funding from Westminster, so we're going to remove it completely as a source; we want to be independent, but we're going to establish closer ties with Europe; we're the party of ethnic minorities and gay rights, but not so long ago, our armed wing was murdering people for belonging to the wrong religious faction or talking to the police.
Click to expand...

Various unionists & more obviously informers posed a threat to the advancement Republican ideals. Ethnic minorities & gays never will, so Sinn Fein's outlook on them is understandably indifferent leaning towards support. Weirdly enough at the moment there is an undercurrent of xenophobia among Unionist politicians which is blind to the fact that the tiny immigrant population will never impinge on the unionist way of life.
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
owengriffiths said:
Weirdly enough at the moment there is an undercurrent of xenophobia among Unionist politicians which is blind to the fact that the tiny immigrant population will never impinge on the unionist way of life.
Click to expand...

'Weirdly enough at the moment'?

Dont you mean 'xenophobia baked into every atom of unionist identity'? Also, Unionism is home to the most virulent homophobia and religious conservatism of probably any party in the UK or Ireland. Sinn Fein's social liberalism in the North is, in part a reaction to this and also an attempt to align themselves with the vaguely leftist and socially liberal stance of the party in the South.
 
owengriffiths

owengriffiths

Owen
The homophobia is mostly linked to Christianity, evangelical or otherwise. It doesn't surprise me then that Bible thumping politicians will be homophobic. But "weirdly enough" you would struggle to find a religious motive for racism against Christian immigrants. Nevertheless I'm sure you'll agree that the likes of the DUP won't do anything constructive to combat racism in their constituencies as it's not a vote winner.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top