UK Election non-frenzy
- Thread starter sufi
- Start date
craner
Beast of Burden
Alright, let's have it.
Still holding to my call, think the exit polls are underestimating the Tory vote even though they are being kind to them (in comparison to previous polls).
We finished canvassing at 9 tonight in the Vale. It was upbeat, but I still think that Cairns will swing it by a few hundred votes. I think Jo Stevens in Cardiff Central will win against a collapsed Lib Dem vote (which was based on the student vote in Cathays) as well as Jo being a very strong candidate (Chris Elmore in the Vale is - how can I put this kindly? - not as strong). Cardiff North is the closest marginal in Wales, but I think Mari Williams might squeak it. If Jo and Mari lose, Labour are surely fucked. Another interesting seat is Brecon, loyally Lib Dem but facing a serious threat from the Tories.
End of Craner's Wales Report.
Still holding to my call, think the exit polls are underestimating the Tory vote even though they are being kind to them (in comparison to previous polls).
We finished canvassing at 9 tonight in the Vale. It was upbeat, but I still think that Cairns will swing it by a few hundred votes. I think Jo Stevens in Cardiff Central will win against a collapsed Lib Dem vote (which was based on the student vote in Cathays) as well as Jo being a very strong candidate (Chris Elmore in the Vale is - how can I put this kindly? - not as strong). Cardiff North is the closest marginal in Wales, but I think Mari Williams might squeak it. If Jo and Mari lose, Labour are surely fucked. Another interesting seat is Brecon, loyally Lib Dem but facing a serious threat from the Tories.
End of Craner's Wales Report.
craner
Beast of Burden
UKIP up to second in Sunderland South. Lib Dems destroyed. Labour up.
Interesting.
This matches my prediction in that: UKIP will gain a lot of votes, but come second or third without gaining any (or many) seats. If they start beating Tories like this in a uniform way, though, then a whole different picture emerges, which doesn't match my predicition at all. Horrible result for the Lib Dems, as they lose their deposit.
Still early, though.
Interesting.
This matches my prediction in that: UKIP will gain a lot of votes, but come second or third without gaining any (or many) seats. If they start beating Tories like this in a uniform way, though, then a whole different picture emerges, which doesn't match my predicition at all. Horrible result for the Lib Dems, as they lose their deposit.
Still early, though.
craner
Beast of Burden
Fuck, who knows? It's worrying. Sturgeon has been magnificent, I have to say. I don't like her. I don't like nationalists, full stop. But, as I said, I have never seen such an effective campaign in my lifetime since Blair in 1997. I am too young to remember Thatcher in '88.
craner
Beast of Burden
At the moment, it seems that UKIP secret votes are surging into Tory and Labour votes, but also adding up to the previous non-voter tally in a high turn-out. So I think UKIP are doing better than I expected, without adding seats, but slashing (I reckon) the Tory vote mostly.
crackerjack
Well-known member
I will never doubt you again.
comelately
Wild Horses
Although killing the LDs will cheer the Conservatives, Cameron is still probably in a weak position. He's going to be held to ransom by his own party.
craner
Beast of Burden
Bye Bye Galloway (at least).
Tories rising, though, despite UKIP surge. This does somewhat confirm my "silent vote" hunch, although I did predict a UKIP surge towards Tory. In fact UKIP are scoring big 7000-8000 chunk votes. No seats, though, and still reckon Farage will lose, which will ultimately damage UKIP.
It's weird and worrying that school children love Farage and Boris. Or maybe it's obvious. Mind you, with 5 year fixed parliaments, and current moves to reduce voting age to 16, current 11 year old Boris and Farage fans will be voting in the next election. Am I being paranoid?
Tories rising, though, despite UKIP surge. This does somewhat confirm my "silent vote" hunch, although I did predict a UKIP surge towards Tory. In fact UKIP are scoring big 7000-8000 chunk votes. No seats, though, and still reckon Farage will lose, which will ultimately damage UKIP.
It's weird and worrying that school children love Farage and Boris. Or maybe it's obvious. Mind you, with 5 year fixed parliaments, and current moves to reduce voting age to 16, current 11 year old Boris and Farage fans will be voting in the next election. Am I being paranoid?