I'm not saying he's wrong. I'm just suspicious of the general air of certainty.
Yeah, I was going to say earlier: how many times is it now that Trump has, by popular consensus, "destroyed" or at least "sabotaged" his own campaign? Wasn't this supposed to have happened already after he insulted veterans' families, took the piss out of McCain for "letting himself get captured", and a bunch of other occasions? Maybe he'd be more popular now without having made these gaffes, but they clearly haven't finished him off, either individually or in aggregate.It's interesting how the process appears to move forward without memory. Every couple of weeks we learn a new revelation that will definitely destroy his candidacy, followed by a great deal of triumphalism in the media. It doesn't stick and we go on to the next controversy for another iteration.
obviously nothing is for certain, but clinton has a pretty strong ground game with hundreds of offices for a year in key swing states while trump has almost no ground game at all. he equates crowds to popularity. getting a few thousand people at a rally feels good but is meaningless if you don't have a mechanism for getting the vote out. his hardcore base was enough to win a republican primary race split across 16 other candidates, but they aren't enough for a national election against one opponent.
also, for example in key swing state pennsylvania, the rust belt area is sparsely populated while inner city philadelphia is heavily populated by reliable democratic minority voters and trump's "women" problems is losing him the white suburbs. the numbers just don't work for him.
the other thing is the race doesn't start with each candidate at zero. firm red and blue states give democrats a significant advantage in national elections before the first vote is even cast, so he needs to win many more swing states than she does. trump, as a republican, essentially starts in a hole.
Its really looking bad for Trump, the rumours about an undisclosed NBC 'Nigger' tape may well seal the deal in terms of undecideds and marginals, I think his main achievement may end up being getting people out to vote against him.