TL;DR: decent chance of it.
hard to tell what will happen between now and November with him, Biden, the economy, COVID, etc. too many variables, but I think trump's got a better than average shot of winning again. he knows how to fight and distract, and has a pretty huge war chest of contributions to buy ads. if the dems had a better candidate, I'd have more confidence in trump's defeat but don't know if Biden will energize people to get out and vote, even if they dislike some or lots of what trump stands for.
COVID is the wildcard, could very well have a second wave that lays bare the administration's initial mistakes and bad decision to rush the reopening of business.